USDCAD remains in long-term bullish channel targeting 1.3520

Trading 17 sept 2019 Commentaire »

USDCAD after getting rejected at the major Fibonacci resistance at 1.3355-1.3370 area has pulled back towards 1.3150. The bullish channel was not broken and price looks like it has formed a tradeable bottom.

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Blue lines - long-term bullish channel

Red lines - targets if green rectangle is broken

Green rectangle - resistance

USDCAD respects the long-term bullish channel. Support is now at recent low at 1.3134 and resistance at the important Fibonacci level shown as a green rectangle. If price breaks above this area we should expect USDCAD to move towards the 100% extension of the first leg at least. Target is at 1.3520 as long as price is above 1.3130. This target is confirmed if we break above 1.3380.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil Futures Retreat, Settle Sharply Lower

Trading 17 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices retreated on Tuesday, after having climbed up sharply in the previous session following the drone attack on a couple of Saudi Arabia's oil facilities.

Oil prices dropped in today's session, reacting to news that Saudi Arabia has restored about half the production lost in the attacks last weekend.

Saudi Arabia's energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman is also reportedly said the kingdom expects crude output to return to normal by the end of this month.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for October ended down $3.56, or 5.7%, at $59.34 a barrel.

On Monday, oil prices plunged 20% before regaining some lost ground, but still settled the session with a sharp loss of

Prices tumbled on Monday, weighed down by the devastating attacks on Saudi oil facilities that knocked out 5% of global crude supply.

The recovery from the day's lows on Monday came about after the U.S. hinted at possible release of crude reserves.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who said the U.S. was "locked and loaded" to respond to the attacks on Saudi oil facilities, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pointing the finger at Iran, indicated today that the U.S. prepared to respond militarily but has stopped short of definitively blaming Iran for the attacks.

Yemen's Houthi rebels have reportedly claimed responsibility for the attacks.

A report released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) today said crude oil production from seven major U.S. shale plays is forecast to climb by 74,000 barrels a day in October to 8.843 million barrels a day.

Meanwhile, traders were also looking ahead to the weekly crude inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and EIA.

The API will release its weekly report later on Tuesday, while EIA's data is due at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday.


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USDJPY reaches our bounce target

Trading 17 sept 2019 Commentaire »

In an analysis posted back at the end of August I explained the signs that were showing me that a bounce towards 107.50-108 is possible. Price has moved as expected without breaking below any critical support level.

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Blue lines - bullish divergence

Red line - short-term resistance

Green line - channel resistance

Black lines - triangle pattern (broken downwards)

USDJPY has reached our target of 107.50-108. Price could continue higher towards the lower triangle boundary as a back test of the downward break from back in July. Support is at 107.40 while resistance is at 109. Currently price is at a point where I would prefer to be neutral if I had no position. Still this is not the time to open short positions as there is no sign of reversal and it is not a good time to open new long positions as the stop for longs is at the August lows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator short-term analysis of EURUSD for September 17, 2019

Trading 17 sept 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD has stopped the decline at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the last leg up and is challenging important short-term resistance at 1.1080. Medium-term trend is still bearish as price is below the Kumo (cloud) but there are a lot of chances that we see 1.1130-1.1150 soon.

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Price is below the Kumo but above the tenkan-sen. Price is challenging the kijun-sen at 1.1080 and if we see a break out, we should expect price to challenge the lower Kumo (cloud) boundary at 1.1130-1.1150 area. The Chikou span has a positive slope and resistance is found at 1.1145. The double bottom we noted last week at 1.0925 still holds and remains an important bullish sign, increasing the chances of more upside as long 1.10 is not broken downwards.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Treasuries Extend Yesterday's Recovery Ahead Of Fed Announcement

Trading 17 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Extending the rebound seen in the previous session, treasuries showed another move to the upside during trading on Tuesday.

Bond prices gave back ground after an early upward move but climbed back firmly into positive territory. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 2.9 basis points to 1.812 percent.

With the drop on the day, the ten-year yield continued to give back ground after ending last Friday's trading at its best closing level in over a month.

The continued recovery by treasuries came as traders looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

The Fed is widely expected to lower interest rates by another 25 basis points, with traders likely to pay closer attention to the accompanying statement for clues about the long-term outlook for rates.

Treasuries may also have benefited from uncertainty about the U.S. response to the recent attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities.

President Donald Trump has indicated the U.S. is prepared to respond militarily but has stopped short of definitively blaming Iran for the attacks.

Trump told reporters diplomacy has not been exhausted when it comes to Iran and would not rule out meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly next week.

On the U.S. economic front, the Fed released a report showing industrial production rebounded by much more than anticipated in the month of August.

The report said industrial production climbed by 0.6 percent in August after edging down by a revised 0.1 percent in August.

Economists had expected industrial production to rise by 0.2 percent compared to the 0.2 percent dip originally reported for the previous month.

A separate report from the National Association of Home Builders showed an unexpected improvement in U.S. homebuilder confidence in the month of September.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index inched up to 68 in September from an upwardly revised August reading of 67.

Economists had expected the index to come in unchanged compared to the 66 originally reported for the previous month.

The Fed's monetary policy announcement is likely to be in the spotlight on Wednesday, overshadowing a report on new residential construction.


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Gold Futures Settle Modestly Higher

Trading 17 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices moved higher on Tuesday, extending gains from previous session, as investors continued to weigh the likely impact of higher crude oil prices on the global economy and also looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

The dollar index weakened to 98.19 and was last seen at 98.23, down nearly 0.4% from previous close.

Gold futures for December ended up $1.90, or 0.1%, at $1,513.40 an ounce.

On Monday, gold futures for December ended up $12.00, or about 0.8%, at $1,511.50 an ounce.

Silver futures for December ended up $0.114 at $18.140 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $2.6270 per pound, down $0.0135 from previous close.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to boost economic growth.

The Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England are also scheduled to announce their monetary policies this week.

Investors were also tracking the developments on U.S.-China trade front and geopolitical issues.

U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated the U.S. is prepared to respond militarily but has stopped short of definitively blaming Iran for the attacks.

On the U.S. economic front, the Fed released a report showing industrial production rebounded by much more than anticipated in the month of August.

The report said industrial production climbed by 0.6% in August after edging down by a revised 0.1% in August.

Economists had expected industrial production to rise by 0.2% compared to the 0.2% dip originally reported for the previous month.

A separate report from the National Association of Home Builders showed an unexpected improvement in U.S. homebuilder confidence in the month of September.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index inched up to 68 in September from an upwardly revised August reading of 67.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

September 17, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 17 sept 2019 Commentaire »

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Two weeks ago, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.0965 - 1.0950 where the backside of the broken channel came to meet the EURUSD pair again.

Risky traders were advised to look for a valid BUY entry anywhere around the price levels of 1.0950. All T/p levels were successfully reached within the recent bullish movement during last weeks' consolidations.

Earlier last week, the EUR/USD pair was testing the backside of both broken trends around 1.1060-1.1080 where significant bearish pressure pushed the pair directly towards 1.0940 (Prominent Weekly Bottom).

Bearish Breakdown below the price level of 1.0940 was needed to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.0900 and 1.0840 (Fibonacci Expansion Key-Levels).

However, SIGNIFICANT bullish rejection was demonstrated as a quick bullish spike towards 1.1100 where a recent episode of bearish rejection was expressed.

Currently, the GBPUSD is trapped within a narrow consolidation range extending between 1.1090 - 1.0995 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Bearish Breakout below 1.1030 is needed to render the recent bullish spike as a bullish trap. If so, bearish decline would be expected initially towards 1.0940-1.0920.

On the other hand, Bullish persistence above 1.1080 gives an early signal of short-term bullish reversal possibility as a bullish double-bottom pattern with a projected target towards 1.1175.

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September 17, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 17 sept 2019 Commentaire »

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On July 26, Bearish breakdown below 1.2385 (Wedge-Pattern Key-Level) facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.2210 and 1.2100 which corresponded to significant key-levels on the Weekly chart.

In Early August, another consolidation-range was temporarily established above 1.2100 before August 9 when temporary bearish movement was executed towards 1.2025 (Previous Weekly-Bottom).

Recent bullish recovery was demonstrated off the recent bottom (1.2025).

This brought the GBP/USD pair back above 1.2100 (Lower limit of the recently established consolidation-zone) within the depicted short-term bullish channel.

As expected, further bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2230 then 1.2280 where recent bearish rejection was demonstrated (near the upper limit of the recent movement channel).

That's why, another quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.2100 then 1.2000 (corresponding to the previous bottom established on August 9).

Last Week, Early signs of bullish recovery (Bullish Engulfing candlesticks) were manifested around 1.1960 bringing the GBPUSD back above 1.2100 and 1.2220 where the GBPUSD pair looked overbought.

However, further bullish momentum was demonstrated towards 1.2320 bringing the pair back inside the depicted movement channel again.

As Expected, Temporary bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2475 - 1.2500 where the upper limit of the current movement channel comes to meet the GBP/USD pair.

Another bullish trial is currently being expressed towards 1.2500 where a possible Double-Top reversal pattern may be established.

The Long-term outlook remains bearish as long as the upper limit of the current movement channel around 1.2475-1.2500 remains defended by the GBPUSD bears.

On the other hand, Bearish breakdown below 1.2400 (Reversal-Pattern Neckline) can turn the short-term outlook into bearish, thus allowing more bearish decline towards the lower limit of the movement channel around 1.2330.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can look for a valid SELL entry anywhere around the price levels of 1.2475-1.2500 for a valid SELL entry.

T/P level to be placed around 1.2330, 1.2280 and 1.2220 while S/L should be placed above 1.2550.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*ECB's Enria: Relaxed Regulation Would Make EU Banks Weaker In Next Recession

Trading 17 sept 2019 Commentaire »

ECB's Enria: Relaxed Regulation Would Make EU Banks Weaker In Next Recession


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U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Unexpectedly Improves In September

Trading 17 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Reflecting low interest rates and solid demand, the National Association of Home Builders released a report on Tuesday showing an unexpected improvement in U.S. homebuilder confidence in the month of September.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index inched up to 68 in September from an upwardly revised August reading of 67.

Economists had expected the index to come in unchanged compared to the 66 originally reported for the previous month.

With the unexpected uptick, the housing market index reached its highest level since a matching reading in October of 2018.

"Solid household formations and attractive mortgage rates are contributing to a positive builder outlook," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. "However, builders are expressing growing concerns regarding uncertainty stemming from the trade dispute with China."

He added, "NAHB's Home Building Geography Index indicates that the slowdown in the manufacturing sector is holding back home construction in some parts of the nation, although there is growth in rural and exurban areas."

The modest increase by the housing market index came as the index gauging current sales conditions rose to 75 in September from 73 in August.

The component measuring traffic of prospective buyers held steady at 50, while the measure charting sales expectations in the next six months edged down to 70 in September from 71 in August.

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department is scheduled to release a separate report on new residential construction in the month of August.

Economists expect housing starts to jump to an annual rate of 1.250 million in August after tumbling to a rate of 1.191 million in July.

Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, are expected to drop to a rate of 1.300 million in August after spiking to a rate of 1.336 million in the previous month.


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