EURUSD remains below major resistance levels

Trading 16 sept 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD is trading around 1.10 after making a low around 1.0925 and a high at 1.1110. Having retraced nearly 61.8% of the recent rise, there are many chances of an upward trend reversal.

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In Ichimoku cloud terms medium-term daily trend remains bearish as price is still below the Kumo (cloud). So far price has retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest move higher. Resistance remains key at 1.1080 as the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) has not been violated. Trend remains bearish as long as price is below the Kumo. However there are many chances of an upward move from current levels at 1.10. Stop for bulls would best be the recent low at 1.0925.

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Gold challenges medium-term bullish channel

Trading 16 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price has shown that bulls are not strong enough to break above the $1,520 short-term resistance level. Now price is challenging the important lower boundary of the bullish channel around $1,500.

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Red lines - bullish channel

Yellow rectangle - short-term resistance

Green rectangle - target area if support fails to hold

Gold price is in a bearish short-term trend. Price could continue lower towards $1,450-$1,420 if price breaks out of the bullish channel. If support and recent lows at $1.484 fail to hold, then we should expect at least a $30 move lower. Short-term resistance at $1,520 must be broken in order for short-term trend to change to bullish again.

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As the Ichimoku cloud indicator shows us, price remains in a bullish medium-term trend but price is unable to break and close above the tenkan-sen and the kijun-sen indicators. So resistance is confirmed by the Ichimoku indicator at $1,520-25. Support is at the upper cloud boundary at $1,470 while the lower cloud boundary is at $1,440. As long as price is below $1,525 I will remain bearish.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil Futures Settle Sharply Higher On Geopolitical Tensions

Trading 16 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices flared up on Monday, hitting their best levels in four months, after the drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities resulted in a loss of about 5% of global crude output.

The commodity also recorded its biggest single-session intraday gain in nearly 20 years.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for October ended up $8.05, or 14.7%, at $62.90 a barrel, after vaulting to a high of $63.38.

On Friday, WTI crude oil futures for October ended down $0.24, or 0.4%, at $54.85 a barrel, extending losses to a fourth straight session.

The steep climb of the oil today was due to the attacks on an oil processing facility at Abqaiq and the nearby Khurais oil field cutting Saudi Arabia's daily crude oil output in half.

Oil futures regained a bit of lost ground after reports suggested Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, will restore at least a third of the production lost to weekend attacks on two major oil facilities.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he has authorized the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if necessary to keep the markets well supplied.

Trump also tweeted the U.S. is "locked and loaded" to the respond to the attacks, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pointing the finger at Iran.

Yemen's Houthi rebels have reportedly claimed responsibility for the attacks.

Meanwhile, a report released by the Energy Information Administration today said crude oil production from seven major U.S. shale plays is forecast to climb by 74,000 barrels a day in October to 8.843 million barrels a day.


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Treasuries Regain Ground Amid Spike In Crude Oil Prices

Trading 16 sept 2019 Commentaire »

After moving sharply lower over the past several sessions, treasuries regained some ground during the trading day on Monday.

Bond prices moved to the upside early in the session and remained firmly positive throughout the day. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, slid 6.2 basis points to 1.841 percent.

The pullback by the ten-year yield came after it surged up by 11.2 basis points last Friday, ending the session at its highest closing level in well over a month.

Treasuries benefited from their appeal as a safe haven amid a spike by the price of crude oil, with brent crude futures showing the biggest intraday jump on record after a coordinated drone attack on Saudi Arabia's oil industry.

Crude for October delivery skyrocketed $8.05 to $62.90 a barrel, raising concerns about the impact higher energy prices could have on the already fragile global economy.

The jump in oil prices came as attacks on an oil processing facility at Abqaiq and the nearby Khurais oil field cut Saudi Arabia's daily crude oil output in half.

Responding to the news, President Donald Trump said he has authorized the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if necessary to keep the markets well supplied.

Trump also tweeted the U.S. is "locked and loaded" to the respond to the attacks, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pointing the finger at Iran.

A potential military conflict between the U.S. and Iran would weigh on a global economy that is already being dragged down by the U.S.-China trade war.

On the U.S. economic front, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report showing New York-area manufacturing activity was little changed in the month of September.

The New York Fed said its general business conditions index dipped to 2.0 in September from 4.8 in August, although a positive reading still indicates an increase in regional manufacturing activity. Economists had expected the index to edge down to 4.0.

Later this week, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its latest monetary policy decision, with the central bank widely expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points.

Trump has been pressuring the Fed for a larger rate cut, pointing to the stimulus announced by other central banks around the world.

"The United States, because of the Federal Reserve, is paying a MUCH higher Interest Rate than other competing countries," Trump tweeted.

He added, "They can't believe how lucky they are that Jay Powell & the Fed don't have a clue. And now, on top of it all, the Oil hit. Big Interest Rate Drop, Stimulus!"

News out of the Middle East may continue to attract attention on Tuesday, potentially overshadowing reports on industrial production and homebuilder confidence.

Trading activity may remain somewhat subdued, however, as traders await the Fed's decision and accompanying statement on Wednesday.


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Gold Futures Settle Notably Higher On Safe-haven Appeal

Trading 16 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices moved higher on Monday as an escalation in geopolitical tensions after the drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities over the weekend prompted traders to seek the safe-haven asset.

The yellow metal surged up despite the U.S. dollar gaining in strength ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement, due this Wednesday.

Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank are also scheduled to announce their monetary policies this week.

The dollar index rose to 98.71 and was last seen hovering around 98.65, up by about 0.4% from previous close.

Gold futures for December ended up $12.00, or about 0.8%, at $1,511.50 an ounce.

On Friday, gold futures for December ended down $7.90, or 0.5%, at $1,499.50 an ounce.

Silver futures for December ended up $0.457, at $18.026 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $2.6405 per pound, down $0.0590 from previous close.

The attack on a couple of Saudi's oil facilities has resulted in a likely drop of 5% in global oil production, the largest-ever single disruption to crude output. The resultant steep jump in oil prices is likely to hurt global growth.

On the U.S. economic front, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report showing New York-area manufacturing activity was little changed in the month of September.

The New York Fed said its general business conditions index dipped to 2.0 in September from 4.8 in August, although a positive reading still indicates an increase in regional manufacturing activity. Economists had expected the index to edge down to 4.0.


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September 16, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 16 sept 2019 Commentaire »

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In Mid-August, the EUR/USD has been trapped between 1.1235-1.1175 for a few trading sessions until bearish breakout below 1.1175 occurred on August 14.

Bearish breakout below 1.1175 promoted further bearish decline towards 1.1075 where the backside of the broken bearish channel has provided temporary bullish demand for sometime (Bullish Triple-Bottom pattern).

However, the depicted Triple-Bottom pattern was invalidated especially after the EURUSD pair bulls have failed to establish Bullish persistence above 1.1115.

Moreover, the recently established short-term uptrend line has been invalidated as well thus rendering the short-term outlook as bearish.

Two weeks ago, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.0965 - 1.0950 where the backside of the broken channel came to meet the EURUSD pair again.

Risky traders were advised to look for a valid BUY entry anywhere around the price levels of 1.0950. All T/p levels were successfully reached within the recent bullish movement during last week's consolidations.

Earlier last week, the EUR/USD pair was testing the backside of both broken trends around 1.1060-1.1080 where significant bearish pressure pushed the pair directly towards 1.0940 (Prominent Weekly Bottom).

Bearish Breakdown below the price level of 1.0940 was needed to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.0900 and 1.0840 (Fibonacci Expansion Key-Levels).

However, SIGNIFICANT bullish rejection was demonstrated as a quick bullish spike towards 1.1100 where another episode of bearish rejection is being expressed.

The current bearish movement below 1.1050 renders the recent bullish spike as a bullish trap, preparing for another bearish decline towards 1.0940.

On the other hand, Bullish persistence above 1.1080 gives an early signal of short-term bullish reversal possibility as a bullish double-bottom pattern with a projected target towards 1.1175.

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September 16, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 16 sept 2019 Commentaire »

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On July 26, Bearish breakdown below 1.2385 (Wedge-Pattern Key-Level) facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.2210 and 1.2100 which corresponded to significant key-levels on the Weekly chart.

In Early August, another consolidation-range was temporarily established above 1.2100 before August 9 when temporary bearish movement was executed towards 1.2025 (Previous Weekly-Bottom).

Recent bullish recovery was demonstrated off the recent bottom (1.2025).

This brought the GBP/USD pair back above 1.2100 (Lower limit of the recently established consolidation-zone) within the depicted short-term bullish channel.

As expected, further bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2230 then 1.2280 where recent bearish rejection was demonstrated (near the upper limit of the recent movement channel).

That's why, another quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.2100 then 1.2000 (corresponding to the previous bottom established on August 9).

Last Week, Early signs of bullish recovery (Bullish Engulfing candlesticks) were manifested around 1.1960 bringing the GBPUSD back above 1.2100 and 1.2220 where the GBPUSD pair looked overbought.

However, further bullish momentum was demonstrated towards 1.2320 bringing the pair back inside the depicted movement channel again.

As Expected, temporary bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2400 - 1.2450 where the upper limit of the current movement channel came to meet the GBP/USD pair.

The Long-term outlook remains bearish as long as the upper limit of the current movement channel around 1.2450 remains defended by the GBPUSD bears.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown below 1.2270 can turn the short-term outlook into bearish, thus allowing more bearish decline towards 1.2220 and 1.2100.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can look for a valid SELL entry anywhere around the price levels of 1.2450 for a valid SELL entry.

T/P level to be placed around 1.2330, 1.2280 and 1.2220 while S/L should be placed above 1.2520.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Czech Producer Price Inflation Steady

Trading 16 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Czech producer price inflation remained stable in August, figures from the Czech Statistical Office showed on Monday.

The producer price index rose 2.1 percent year-on-year in August, the same rate as seen in July. Economists had expected the rate to ease to 1.9 percent.

Among the main components, prices of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning rose 7.7 percent annually in August.

Among the main industrial groupings, prices of non-durable consumer goods and energy grew by 3.5 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively, in August.

On a monthly basis, retail sales rose 0.1 percent in August.


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Croatia Inflation Slows In August

Trading 16 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Croatia's consumer price inflation slowed in August after rising in the previous month, figures from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.

The consumer price index climbed 0.8 percent year-on-year in August, after a 1.1 percent rise in July. In June, inflation was 0.6 percent.

Prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco grew 4.7 percent annually in August and that of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose 3.8 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.3 percent, following a 0.5 percent decrease.


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Ireland Trade Surplus Rises In July

Trading 16 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Ireland's trade surplus increased in July, amid a rise in exports and imports, figures from the Central Statistics Office showed on Monday.

The visible trade surplus fell to EUR 6.27 billion in July from EUR 4.45 billion in June. In the same period previous year, the surplus was EUR 3.89 billion.

Exports rose a seasonally adjusted 18.0 percent monthly in July and imports rose 4.0 percent.

Shipments of medical and pharmaceutical products, which represents 33 percent of total exports, grew 18 percent. Exports of organic chemicals grew 35 percent and those of electrical machinery and equipment jumped 70 percent.

On an annual basis, unadjusted exports increased by 19.0 percent in July, while imports declined 6.0 percent.


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