EURUSD makes major double bottom

Trading 12 sept 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD was quiet nervous today as price opened above 1.10, fell as low as 1.0926 and then closed near 1.1063. With a double bottom at 1.0926 and a big positive daily candlestick, bulls look ready to break the resistance.

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Blue line - major trend line resistance

Yellow rectangle - support double bottom

EURUSD is still below the blue trend line resistance. As long as this is the case then price is vulnerable to turning lower. Breaking above the resistance trend line will be a very bullish signal for EUR and could push price above 1.12-1.13.

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Red rectangle - resistance

EURUSD is challenging the 1.1080-1.1090 resistance area. This is where we also find the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). A daily close above the kijun-sen will push price towards the cloud resistance at 1.1150. Support by the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) at 1.10.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold gets rejected at important short-term resistance

Trading 12 sept 2019 Commentaire »

In our last analysis, we expected Gold price to bounce and maybe start a new upward move that could bring us to new 2019 highs. However for this scenario to happen we noted that a certain resistance would have to break first. I said that the bullish scenario would strengthen with a break above $1,520. Unfortunately for bulls price slightly moved above this level today but got rejected as sellers pushed price below $1,500 again. This was a sign of weakness.

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Red lines - bullish channel

Green line - major support trend line

Gold price remains inside the bullish channel. However the daily candlestick pattern is a bearish one, not giving much hope for any upside. The long upper tail confirms that sellers were stronger today and usually after such days, we expect a follow through, in this case more downside.

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Gold price got rejected at the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) and at the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). This resistance that we mentioned yesterday did not break but instead it provided a rejection. Closing below $1,500 was not a sign of strength, as this implies more downside over the coming weeks.Key resistance remains at $1,520-25. Breaking above it would be a bullish sign. Support is at $1,480-70 and breaking below it will open the way for $1,430-$1,450 minimum.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Treasuries Show Notable Downturn After Seeing Initial Strength

Trading 12 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries showed a significant downturn over the course of the trading day on Thursday, extending the slide seen over the past several sessions.

Bond prices saw initial strength but pulled back well off their highs and firmly into negative territory. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 5.8 basis points to 1.791 percent.

The ten-year yield closed higher for the fifth time in the past six sessions, reaching its highest closing level in over a month.

Treasuries pulled back off their early highs in reaction to the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision, with the ECB cutting rates and announcing a massive new bond-buying program.

The ECB lowered its main deposit rate by 10 basis points to 0.50 percent and announced plans to restart its quantitative easing program by purchasing assets at a pace of 20 billion euros per month beginning November 1st.

The central bank said it expects to keep interest rates at their present or lower levels until it has seen a sufficient increase in the inflation outlook.

The asset purchase program is expected to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of the ECB's policy rates.

Selling pressure intensified after report from Bloomberg News said Trump administration officials have discussed offering an interim trade agreement to China.

Citing five people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg said the limited trade agreement would delay and even roll back some U.S. tariffs for the first time in exchange for Chinese commitments on intellectual property and agricultural purchases.

The people told Bloomberg some of President Donald Trump's top trade advisers have discussed the plan ahead of face-to-face negotiations with Chinese officials in the coming weeks.

However, a senior White House official subsequently told CNBC the U.S. is "absolutely not" considering an interim trade deal.

Treasuries remained firmly negative as President Donald Trump had also revealed in a post on Twitter that he is temporarily delaying raising tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports.

Calling the move a "gesture of good will," Trump delayed raising the tariffs rate from 25 percent to 30 percent from October 1st to October 15th.

Trump said in a separate tweet that China is expected to purchase large amounts of U.S. agricultural products, although the Chinese have not followed through on previous pledges.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin claimed in an interview with CNBC that Trump could strike a trade deal with China at "any time" but only wants to do a "good deal."

"President Trump is only going to agree to a deal if it's a good deal, a deal that's good for U.S. companies and U.S. workers," Mnuchin said.

Meanwhile, bond traders largely shrugged off the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $16 billion worth of thirty-year bonds, which attracted average demand.

The thirty-year bond auction drew a high yield of 2.270 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.22, which matched the average bid-to-cover ratio from the ten previous thirty-year bond auctions.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

Reports on retail sales and consumer sentiment are likely to be in focus on Friday, as strength in consumer spending has recently helped prop up the U.S. economy amid signs of weakness from other sectors.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Crude Oil Futures Extend Losses To 3rd Straight Day

Trading 12 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday, extending losses to a third straight session, weighed down by a downward revision in OPEC's oil demand forecast and speculation that the U.S. may ease sanctions on Iran.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for October ended down $0.66, or about 1.2%, at $55.09 a barrel.

On Wednesday, WTI Crude oil futures for October ended down $1.65, or about 2.9%, at $55.75 a barrel.

OPEC, in its monthly report, said global oil market would be in surplus next year and that oil demand will expand by 1.08 million barrels per day, down 60,000 per day from previous estimate due to an economic slowdown.

Traders were also weighing the possibility of the U.S. relaxing sanctions on Iran in the coming weeks.

The meeting of OPEC members in Abu Dhabi ended without the group deciding on any deeper output cut.

Saudi Arabia's new energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said deeper cuts would not be decided upon before a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries planned for December.

However, the OPEC meeting ended with the members pledging to clean up compliance to lower collective output by several hundred thousand barrels per day over a two-month period.


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Gold Futures Settle Higher Again

Trading 12 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices moved higher on Thursday, gaining in strength after the European Central Bank slashed the deposit rate and restarted its asset purchase programme.

However, slightly easing worries about U.S.-China trade war after U.S. President Donald Trump said he is temporarily delaying raising tariffs on about $250 billion worth of Chinese exports increased the risk appetite in the market and limited the yellow metal's gains.

The ECB's policy move has now raised hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve, scheduled to meet next week, will also cut interest rates and announce measures to support economic expansion.

The dollar index declined to 98.19 and then edged up a bit to 98.32, still staying in negative territory with a loss of about 0.33%.

Gold futures for December ended up $4.20, or about 0.3%, at $1,507.40 an ounce, well off the day's high of $1,532.20 an ounce.

On Wednesday, gold futures for December ended up $4.00, or about 0.3%, at $1,503.20 an ounce.

Silver futures for December ended up $0.007, at $18.177 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $2.6405 per pound, gaining $0.0260 for the session.

Calling the move a "gesture of good will," Trump delayed raising the tariffs rate from 25% to 30% from October 1st to October 15th.

The European Central Bank today announced a host of stimulus measures to boost the euro area economy in the final rate-setting session chaired by the outgoing President Mario Draghi.

The central bank slashed the deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.5%, while it left the main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate unchanged at 0% and 0.25%, respectively.

The ECB restarted its asset purchase programme, or APP, which it had previously ended in December 2018. The bank said it will make monthly asset purchases of EUR 20 billion from November 1 and that the new APP will "run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates."


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Thirty-Year Bond Auction Attracts Average Demand

Trading 12 sept 2019 Commentaire »

The Treasury Department released the results of this month's auction of $16 billion worth of thirty-year bonds on Thursday, revealing the sale attracted average demand.

The thirty-year bond auction drew a high yield of 2.270 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.22.

Last month, the Treasury sold $19 billion worth of thirty-year bonds, drawing a high yield of 2.335 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.24.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous thirty-year bond auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.22.

Earlier this week, the Treasury revealed its auction of $38 billion worth of three-year notes attracted below average demand, while its auction of $24 billion worth of ten-year notes attracted slightly above average demand.


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September 12, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 12 sept 2019 Commentaire »

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In Mid-August, the EUR/USD has been trapped between 1.1235-1.1175 for a few trading sessions until bearish breakout below 1.1175 occurred on August 14.

Bearish breakout below 1.1175 promoted further bearish decline towards 1.1075 where the backside of the broken bearish channel has provided temporary bullish demand for sometime (Bullish Triple-Bottom pattern).

Bullish persistence above 1.1115 was needed to confirm the short-term trend reversal into bullish.

However, the depicted Triple-Bottom pattern was invalidated especially after the EURUSD pair bulls have failed to establish Bullish persistence above 1.1115.

Moreover, the recently established short-term uptrend line has been invalidated as well thus rendering the short-term outlook as bearish.

Two weeks ago, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.0965 - 1.0950 where the backside of the broken channel came to meet the EURUSD pair again.

Risky traders were advised to look for a valid BUY entry anywhere around the price levels of 1.0950. All T/p levels were successfully reached within the recent bullish movement during last week's consolidations.

Earlier this week, the EUR/USD pair was testing the backside of both broken trends around 1.1060-1.1080 where significant bearish pressure pushed the pair directly towards 1.0940 (Prominent Weekly Bottom).

Bearish Breakdown below the price level of 1.0940 was needed to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.0900 and 1.0840 (Fibonacci Expansion Key-Levels).

However, SIGNIFICANT bullish rejection is being demonstrated as a quick bullish spike towards 1.1080 where cautious watching of price action should be done.

Bullish breakout above 1.1080 gives an early signal of short-term bullish reversal possibility as a bullish double-bottom pattern with a projected target towards 1.1175.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

September 12, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 12 sept 2019 Commentaire »

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On July 26, Bearish breakdown below 1.2385 (Wedge-Pattern Key-Level) facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.2210 and 1.2100 which corresponded to significant key-levels on the Weekly chart.

In Early August, another consolidation-range was temporarily established above 1.2100 before August 9 when temporary bearish movement was executed towards 1.2025 (Previous Weekly-Bottom).

Recent bullish recovery was demonstrated off the recent bottom (1.2025).

This brought the GBP/USD pair back above 1.2100 (Lower limit of the recently established consolidation-zone) within the depicted short-term bullish channel.

As expected, further bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2230 then 1.2280 where recent bearish rejection was demonstrated (near the upper limit of the recent movement channel).

That's why, another quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.2100 then 1.2000 (corresponding to the previous bottom established on August 9).

Last Week, Early signs of bullish recovery (Bullish Engulfing candlesticks) were manifested around 1.1960 bringing the GBPUSD back above 1.2100 and 1.2220 where the GBPUSD pair looked overbought.

However, further bullish momentum was demonstrated towards 1.2320 bringing the pair back inside the depicted movement channel again.

The Long-term outlook remains bearish as long as the upper limit of the current movement channel around 1.2400 remains defended by the GBPUSD bears.

Temporary bullish advancement may be demonstrated towards 1.2400 - 1.2420 where the upper limit of the current movement channel comes to meet the pair.

On the other hand, early bearish breakdown below 1.2270 can turn the short-term outlook into bearish, thus allowing more bearish decline towards 1.2220 and 1.2100.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish breakout below 1.2270 for a valid SELL entry.

T/P level to be placed around 1.2250, 1.2220 and 1.2110 while S/L should be placed above 1.2350.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro Erases ECB-led Losses After Draghi's Speech

Trading 12 sept 2019 Commentaire »

The euro trimmed its ECB-induced decline in the New York session on Thursday, as the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's tool kit failed to inspire market participants, who were expecting much more stimulus measures before his departure.

In his press conference in Frankfurt, Draghi said that incoming information pointed to a more protracted weakness of the euro area economy, the persistence of prominent downside risks and muted inflationary pressures.

"Measures of underlying inflation remained generally muted and indicators of inflation expectations stand at low levels."

The Governing Council assessed that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy is still needed for a prolonged period of time and it would continue to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, he added.

Inflation forecast for this year was cut to 1.2 percent from 1.3 percent. For 2020 and 2021, inflation projections were reduced to 1 percent and 1.5 percent, from previous forecasts of 1.4 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively.

Growth outlook for this year was slashed to 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent, while that of 2020 was trimmed to 1.2 percent from 1.4 percent.

The central bank slashed the deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.50 percent, while it left the main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate unchanged at 0.00 percent and 0.25 percent, respectively.

The ECB said it would make monthly asset purchases of EUR 20 billion from November 1.

The central bank tweaked its forward guidance, saying that it "now expects the key interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics."

Preliminary figures from Eurostat showed that Eurozone's industrial production continued to decline in July, albeit at a slower pace compared to the previous month.

Industrial production dropped 2 percent year-on-year following a 2.4 percent slump in June, which was revised from 2.6 percent. Economists had forecast a 1.3 percent decrease.

Final data from Destatis showed that Germany's inflation eased as estimated in August.

Consumer prices climbed 1.4 percent year-on-year in August, slower than the 1.7 percent increase in July.

The currency has been falling against its major counterparts in the previous session after the ECB decision.

The euro rose to more than a 4-week high of 119.52 against the yen, from a weekly low of 117.56 hit at 8:45 am ET. Next key resistance for the euro is likely seen around the 122.00 level.

Data from the Bank of Japan showed that Japan producer prices fell 0.3 percent on month in August - shy of expectations for a drop of 0.2 percent following the flat reading in July.

On a yearly basis, producer prices sank 0.9 percent - again missing estimates for a fall of 0.8 percent following the 0.6 percent decline in the previous month.

The euro recovered to 1.1061 against the greenback, from a 9-day low of 1.0927 seen at 8:45 am ET. The currency is thus heading to pierce a 3-day high of 1.1068 set in early deals. The euro is poised to challenge resistance around the 1.12 mark.

The single currency gained to 1.0953 against the franc, following a weekly decline to 1.0851 recorded at 8:30 am ET. Further uptrend may take the euro to a resistance around the 1.13 area.

Following near a 3-month low of 0.8885 seen at 8:45 am ET, the euro rebounded to 0.8967 against the pound. This may be compared to a 2-day high of 0.8972 set at 7:45 am ET. Should the euro strengthens further, it is likely to face resistance around the 0.91 region.

Survey data from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed that UK property sales are expected to fall over the next three months as Brexit uncertainty continues to drag sentiment.

The index for expected sales volume for the coming three months declined to -23 in August from -4 in July. The house price balance rose to -4 from -9.

The euro rose back to 1.4593 against the loonie, not far from a 6-day peak of 1.4594 it recorded at 7:45 am ET. This followed a 2-1/2-year decline to 1.4434 at 8:45 am ET. The euro is likely to challenge resistance around the 1.48 region, if it gains again.

Having dropped to near a 2-month low of 1.5906 versus the aussie at 8:45 am ET, the euro bounced back to 1.6083. The euro is seen finding resistance around the 1.63 mark.

Following more than a 5-week low of 1.7001 marked at 8:30 am ET, the euro reversed direction, reaching as high as 1.7206 against the kiwi. Continuation of the euro's uptrend may lead it to a resistance around the 1.73 region.

Data from Statistics New Zealand showed that New Zealand food prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent on month in August.

Unadjusted, prices were up 0.7 percent on month.

Looking ahead, U.S. monthly budget statement for August is scheduled for release at 2:00 pm ET.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BTC 09.12.2019 – Important short-term resitance on the test at $11,400, watch for sell opportunities

Trading 12 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin 4H time-frame:

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MACD oscillator on the 4H is not showing any new momentum up on the recent rally, which is sign of the weak buying. Important resistance at the price of $10,400 is on the test and you should be careful with long positions. I didn't find any reaction after the ECB meeting today, which is indication that no institutional money is involved into Bitcoin for now.

Bitcoin Forecast and recommendations for traders:

Bitcoin is in overall consolidation phase but most recently I found weak bullish momentum on the MACD oscillator, which is sign that there is chance for more downside and potential of $9,855 or $9,350. Thus, I recommend selling cryptocurrency with the first target at $9,855.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com