The Dollar index back tests and respects support at 98

Trading 11 sept 2019 Commentaire »

The Dollar index has back tested the very important area of 98 where it was once resistance but now support. Price remains inside a medium-term bullish channel and as long as price is above 98, we should expect a new higher high towards 100.

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Red lines - bullish channel

Red rectangle - support

Green rectangle - resistance

The Dollar index is bouncing off the support area of 97.80-98. This was once resistance and now support. Price has respected this support at the current pull back and is now bouncing. This is a sign of strength. This increases the chances of price touching and testing the green trend line resistance again.

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According to the Ichimoku cloud indicator trend is bullish as price is above the Kumo (cloud). Price continues to respect the kijun-sen( green line indicator). The Chikou span remains above price. All parts of the Ichimoku indicator support that we remain in a bullish trend. This could change on a break below the Kumo at 97.10-97.30 (and rising).The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Time to bounce for Gold

Trading 11 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price as expected has reached the lower boundary of the medium-term bullish channel. Price is now shows signs of a reversal and that support is being respected. This could lead even to new 2019 highs.

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Red lines - bullish channel

Green line - major trend line support

Gold price has reached $1,484 and has started to bounce. Respecting the channel could lead to a new move higher so bulls need to start seeing higher highs and higher lows. Gold price should stay above $1,484 in order for the move higher to be confirmed. Breaking below $1,484 would be a sign of weakness.

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Gold price is above the Daily Kumo. Trend remains bullish. Although price has broken below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators, the Chikou span remains above the price. Resistance is at $1,520. A daily close above it would be a sign of strength. This would increase the chances of breaking to new higher highs. The longer price stays below $1,520, the higher the chances of moving lower towards cloud support.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Crude Oil Futures Settle Modestly Lower

Trading 11 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices declined sharply on Wednesday as a downward revision in oil demand forecast by OPEC and speculation that the U.S. may ease sanctions on Iran outweighed data showing a larger than expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles last week.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for October ended down $1.65, or about 2.9%, at $55.75 a barrel, the lowest settlement since September 3.

On Tuesday, WTI Crude oil futures for October ended down $0.45, or about 0.8%, at $57.40 a barrel.

According to the data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) today, crude stockpiles in the U.S. declined nearly 7 million barrels last week, much more than an expected draw of 2.7 million barrels.

The EIA report also said gasoline inventories were down by 0.68 million barrels last week, while distillate stockpiles rose 2.7 million barrels, much higher than an expected 0.07 million barrels.

The American Petroleum Institute (API), which released its crude oil inventory report late Tuesday, has estimated a large crude oil inventory draw of 7.2 million barrels for the week ending September 5.

The OPEC's monthly report says demand for its crude will drop by about 1.2 million barrels per day, to 29.4 million barrels per day in 2020.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Treasuries Extend Recent Downward Trend Ahead Of ECB Decision

Trading 11 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Extending the downward trend seen over the past several sessions, treasuries moved moderately lower during trading on Wednesday.

Bond prices came under pressure early in the session and remained stuck in the red throughout the day. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, rose by 3.1 basis points to 1.733 percent.

With the continued increase on the day, the ten-year yield finished the session at its highest closing level in a month.

The continued weakness among treasuries came following news that China is granting tariff exemptions for 16 types of American-made products as a sign of goodwill ahead of the next round of trade talks.

The list included varieties of animal feed such as alfalfa and fish meal, cancer drugs gefitinib and capecitabine, base oil for lubricants and lubricating grease, and some farm chemicals.

The Chinese Customs Tariff Commission said the tariff suspension would take effect next Tuesday and remain in place for a year.

Overall trading activity was relatively light, however, as traders look ahead to the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision on Thursday as well as next week's Federal Reserve meeting.

In a post on Twitter this morning, President Donald Trump urged the Fed to lowest interest rates to zero or less, allowing the U.S. to refinance its debt.

"INTEREST COST COULD BE BROUGHT WAY DOWN, while at the same time substantially lengthening the term. We have the great currency, power, and balance sheet," Trump tweeted.

"The USA should always be paying the lowest rate. No Inflation!" he added. "It is only the na?vet? of Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve that doesn't allow us to do what other countries are already doing. A once in a lifetime opportunity that we are missing because of 'Boneheads.'"

On the U.S. economic front, the Labor Department released a report showing a modest uptick in producer prices in the month of August.

The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand inched up by 0.1 percent in August after rising by 0.2 percent in July. Economists had expected prices to come in unchanged.

Excluding food and energy prices, core producer prices rose by 0.3 percent in August after edging down by 0.1 percent in July. Core prices had been expected to increase by 0.2 percent.

Meanwhile, traders largely shrugged off the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $24 billion worth of ten-year notes, which attracted modestly above average demand.

The ten-year note auction drew a high yield of 1.739 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46, while the ten previous ten-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.42.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

Looking ahead, the Treasury is due to announce the results of its auction of $16 billion worth of thirty-year bonds on Thursday.

The ECB's monetary policy decision is also likely to attract attention on Thursday along with reports on consumer prices and weekly jobless claims.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Settles Modestly Higher

Trading 11 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday, rebounding from five-week lows, as traders looked ahead to the monetary policy meetings of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank.

However, a firm trend in stock markets and a strong dollar limited gold's uptick. The dollar index rose to 98.75 around mid morning, and was last seen moving around 98.65, still up with a solid gain of about 0.32%.

The ECB is scheduled to announce its rate decision tomorrow. The bank is widely expected to announce additional stimulus to revive euro area economic growth.

The Federal Reserve's policy announcement is due next week. With the central bank's chief reiterating recently that the bank will act "as appropriate" to support economic expansion, markets hope for a reduction in interest rate.

Also, the U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted this morning that the "Federal Reserve should get out interest rates down to Zero, or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt."

Gold futures for December ended up $4.00, or about 0.3%, at $1,503.20 an ounce.

On Tuesday, gold futures for December ended down $11.90, or about 0.8%, at $1,499.20 an ounce, the lowest close in about five weeks.

Silver futures for December ended down $0.016, at $18.170 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $2.6145 per pound, down $0.0135 from previous close.

On the trade front, China announced that it would exempt 16 American-made products from tariffs as a sign of goodwill ahead of resumption of next round of trade talks between the two countries.

The list included varities of animal feed such as alfalfa and fish meal, a couple of cancer drugs, base oil for lubricants and lubricating grease, and some farm chemicals.

However, there is a bit of disappointment in the U.S. as the list does not include soybeans and other agricultural goods.

In economic news, a report released by the Labor Department on Wednesday showed a modest uptick in U.S. producer prices in the month of August.

The report said producer price index for final demand inched up by 0.1% in August after rising by 0.2% in July. Economists had expected prices to come in unchanged.

Meanwhile, wholesale inventories in the U.S. showed a modest rebound in the month of July, rising 0.2%, after edging down by a revise 0.1% in June, according to a report released by the Commerce Department.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ten-Year Note Auction Attracts Modestly Above Average Demand

Trading 11 sept 2019 Commentaire »

On Wednesday, the Treasury Department announced the results of its auction of $24 billion worth of ten-year notes, revealing the sale attracted modestly above average demand.

The ten-year note auction drew a high yield of 1.739 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46.

Last month, the Treasury sold $27 billion worth of ten-year notes, drawing a high yield of 1.670 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.20.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous ten-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.42.

Looking ahead, the Treasury is due to announce the results of its auction of $16 billion worth of thirty-year bonds on Thursday.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

September 11, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 11 sept 2019 Commentaire »

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On July 26, Bearish breakdown below 1.2385 (Wedge-Pattern Key-Level) facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.2210 and 1.2100 which corresponded to significant key-levels on the Weekly chart.

In Early August, another consolidation-range was temporarily established above 1.2100 before August 9 when temporary bearish movement was executed towards 1.2025 (Previous Weekly-Bottom).

Recent bullish recovery was demonstrated off the recent bottom (1.2025).

This brought the GBP/USD pair back above 1.2100 (Lower limit of the recently established consolidation-zone) within the depicted short-term bullish channel.

As expected, further bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2230 then 1.2280 where recent bearish rejection was demonstrated (near the upper limit of the recent movement channel).

That's why, another quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.2100 then 1.2000 (corresponding to the previous bottom established on August 9).

Last Week, Early signs of bullish recovery (Bullish Engulfing candlesticks) were manifested around 1.1960 bringing the GBPUSD back above 1.2100 and 1.2220 where the GBPUSD pair looked overbought.

However, further bullish momentum was demonstrated towards 1.2320 bringing the pair back inside the depicted movement channel again.

The Long-term outlook remains bearish as long as the upper limit of the current movement channel around 1.2400 remains defended by the GBPUSD bears.

Temporary bullish advancement may be demonstrated towards 1.2400 - 1.2420 where the upper limit of the current movement channel comes to meet the pair.

On the other hand, early bearish breakdown below 1.2270 turns the short-term outlook into bearish, thus allowing more bearish decline towards 1.2220 and 1.2100.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for the current bullish movement to pursue towards 1.2400-1.2420 (upper limit of the depicted movement channel) for a valid SELL entry.

T/P level to be placed around 1.2300, 1.2250 then 1.2220 while S/L should be placed above 1.2450.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

September 11, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 11 sept 2019 Commentaire »

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In Mid-August, the EUR/USD has been trapped between 1.1235-1.1175 for a few trading sessions until bearish breakout below 1.1175 occurred on August 14.

Bearish breakout below 1.1175 promoted further bearish decline towards 1.1075 where the backside of the broken bearish channel has provided temporary bullish demand for sometime (Bullish Triple-Bottom pattern).

Bullish persistence above 1.1115 was needed to confirm the short-term trend reversal into bullish.

However, the depicted Triple-Bottom pattern was invalidated especially after the EURUSD pair bulls have failed to establish Bullish persistence above 1.1115.

Moreover, the recently established short-term uptrend line has been invalidated as well thus rendering the short-term outlook as bearish.

Two weeks ago, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.0965 - 1.0950 where the backside of the broken channel came to meet the EURUSD pair again.

Risky traders were advised to look for a valid BUY entry anywhere around the price levels of 1.0950. All T/p levels were successfully reached within the recent bullish movement during last week's consolidations.

Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair was testing the backside of both broken trends around 1.1060-1.1080 where early signs of bearish rejection were demonstrated as expected in previous articles.

Bearish Breakdown below the Previous Weekly Bottom (1.0940) is mandatory to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.0900 and 1.0840 (Fibonacci Expansion Key-Levels).

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders were advised to have a valid SELL entry around the price levels of (1.1050-1.1070). It's already running in profits.

S/L should be lowered to 1.1090 while remaining target levels should be located at 1.0965, 1.0935 and 1.0900.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Decrease By 6.9 Million Barrels In Week Ended 9/6

Trading 11 sept 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Decrease By 6.9 Million Barrels In Week Ended 9/6


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise In Line With Estimates In July

Trading 11 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Wholesale inventories in the U.S. showed a modest rebound in the month of July, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday.

The report said wholesale inventories rose by 0.2 percent in July after edging down by a revised 0.1 percent in June. The uptick in inventories matched economist estimates.

The rebound in wholesale inventories came as inventories of non-durable goods climbed by 0.8 percent in July after falling by 0.4 percent in June.

Inventories of petroleum products showed a notable increase along with inventories of drugs, farm products, and groceries.

On the other hand, inventories of durable goods dipped by 0.2 percent in July after inching up by 0.1 percent in the previous month.

The report showed steep drops in inventories of metals and electrical equipment, which more than offset a jump in inventories of computer equipment.

The Commerce Department also said wholesale sales rose by 0.3 percent in July after dipping by 0.3 percent in June.

Sales of non-durable goods jumped by 1.2 percent amid a spike in sales of farm products, while sales of durable goods slid by 0.7 percent amid a sharp drop in sales of miscellaneous goods.

With inventories and sales both rising, the inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was unchanged from the previous month at 1.36.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com