Dollar Stays Steady Against Most Rivals

Trading 10 sept 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar stayed fairly steady on Tuesday and saw some gains against some major currencies, ahead of the European Central Bank's policy move, due on Thursday.

Investors were also weighing the prospects of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.

The dollar index rose to 98.46 before paring some gains. It was last seen hovering around 98.40, up 0.12% from previous close.

Against the euro, the dollar strengthened to 1.1031 before noon, but eased to 1.1042 later on in the day, gaining just 0.05%.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, whose term expires at the end of October, is widely expected to announce a fresh round of stimulus measures on Thursday to rev up the euro area economy.

However, the group of hawkish policymakers opposed to a restart of the quantitative easing, or QE, has grown, casting doubts on the expectations for a comprehensive stimulus package.

In the July policy meeting, the ECB had altered its forward guidance to clearly signal that it is planning an interest rate cut in the near term and a comprehensive stimulus package that could include a tiering system and a fresh round of asset purchases.

The Pound Sterling was up slightly with a unit fetching $1.2348. The dollar, which was around 1.2305 earlier in the day, weakened to 1.2375 by mid morning, but pared a substantial portion of losses as the day progressed.

The UK unemployment rate remained at the lowest since late 1974, the Office for National Statistics reported Tuesday. In three months to July, the ILO jobless rate remained unchanged on quarter, at 3.8%, but slightly below the expected 3.9%.

The employment rate came in at 76.1% in three months to July, the joint-highest on record.

The Yen was down by about 0.3% against the dollar, at 107.56, near the day's low.

The dollar was down 0.14% against the loonie at 1.3149, down marginally against Swiss franc at 0.9920. It was down marginally against the Aussie as well, with the pair trading at 0.6861.


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Oil Futures Settle Lower Ahead Of Inventory Data

Trading 10 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices edged lower on Tuesday, with traders taking some profits after recent strong gains, and looking ahead to weekly inventory reports.

Oil prices moved higher early on in the session amid optimism that OPEC and non-OPEC countries including Russia, would agree to extend production cuts in a bit to support prices.

Prices fell after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the sacking of national security advisor John Bolton. Trump wrote on Twitter that Bolton "disagreed strongly with many of his suggestions."

A section of the market appears to believe the exit of Bolton might result in the Trump administration reviewing the sanctions imposed against Iran.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for October ended down $0.45, or about 0.8%, at $57.40 a barrel.

On Monday, WTI crude oil futures ended up $1.33, or 2.4%, at $87.85 a barrel, after having gained about 0.4% a session earlier.

Saudi Arabia's new energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said on Monday that the pillars of Saudi Arabia's policy would not change and a global deal to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day would continue.

In his first public appearance since being appointed energy minister, Abdulaziz said that the deal agreed a year ago by major oil producers to limit output was "until death do us part."

The American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly oil report later this evening, while the Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its inventory data at 10:30 AM on Wednesday.


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Treasuries Show Another Significant Move To The Downside

Trading 10 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries moved significantly lower over the course of the trading session on Tuesday, extending the notable downward move seen on Monday.

Bond prices moved steadily lower as the day progressed before closing firmly in negative territory. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, jumped 8 basis points to 1.702 percent.

The ten-year yield added to the 7.2 basis point advance seen in the previous session, ending the day at its highest closing level in a month.

The sustained weakness among treasuries came as traders continued to express optimism about more global stimulus and upcoming U.S.-China trade talks.

Treasuries saw further downside after a report from the South China Morning Post said China is expected to agree to buy more American agricultural products in hopes of a better trade deal.

A source familiar with the situation told the SCMP working-level officials are discussing the text of a deal that would be reviewed at the high-level meeting scheduled for next month.

However, Scott Kennedy, senior adviser with the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, warned that a deal on soybeans won't dispel distrust between Beijing and Washington.

The results of the Treasury Department's auction of $38 billion worth of three-year notes also weighed on treasuries, as the auction attracted below average demand.

The three-year note auction drew a high yield of 1.573 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.42, while the ten previous three-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.50.

On Wednesday, the Treasury Department is due to announce the results of its auctions of $24 billion worth of ten-year notes.

Trading on Wednesday may also be impacted by reaction to the Labor Department's report on producer price inflation in the month of August.


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Gold Futures Drift Lower For 4th Session, Settle At Five-week Low

Trading 10 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices drifted lower on Tuesday, extending losses to a fourth successive session, as the dollar stayed firm and risk appetite remained intact after Germany announced a stimulus plan to support its growth.

The European Central Bank, which is scheduled to state its monetary policy on Thursday, is widely expected to introduce a stimulus package that may include a rate cut to boost growth amid the ongoing U.S.-Sino trade war.

Next week, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its policy. The central bank Chairman Jerome Powell's recent comments that the bank will continue to act "as appropriate" to sustain the U.S. economic expansion, has raised expectations of an interest rate cut.

The dollar index rose to 98.46 before paring some gains and easing to 98.38, still up with a modest gain of about 0.1%.

Gold futures for December ended down $11.90, or about 0.8%, at $1,499.20 an ounce, the lowest close in about five weeks.

On Monday, gold futures for December ended down $4.40, or about 0.3%, at $1,511.10 an ounce, after falling 0.7% and 2.2% in the previous two sessions.

Silver futures for December ended up $0.019, at $18.186 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $2.6280 per pound, up $0.0005 for the session.

Slightly easing worries about U.S.-China trade dispute on the back of recent reports about resumption of ministerial-level trade talks in early October have also contributed to the increased risk appetite in markets.


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Three-Year Note Auction Attracts Below Average Demand

Trading 10 sept 2019 Commentaire »

The Treasury Department announced the results of its auction of $38 billion worth of three-year notes on Tuesday, revealing the auction attracted below average demand.

The three-year note auction drew a high yield of 1.573 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.42.

Last month, the Treasury also sold $38 billion worth of three-year notes, drawing a high yield of 1.562 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.41.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous three-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.50.

Looking ahead, the Treasury is due to announce the results of its auctions of $24 billion worth of ten-year notes and $16 billion worth of thirty-year bonds on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.


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September 10, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 10 sept 2019 Commentaire »

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On July 26, Bearish breakdown below 1.2385 (Wedge-Pattern Key-Level) facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.2210 and 1.2100 which corresponded to significant key-levels on the Weekly chart.

In Early August, another consolidation-range was temporarily established above 1.2100 before August 9 when temporary bearish movement was executed towards 1.2025 (Previous Weekly-Bottom).

Recent bullish recovery was demonstrated off the recent bottom (1.2025).

This brought the GBP/USD pair back above 1.2100 (Lower limit of the recently established consolidation-zone) within the depicted short-term bullish channel.

As expected, further bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2230 then 1.2280 where recent bearish rejection was demonstrated (near the upper limit of the recent movement channel).

Bullish persistence above 1.2160 (the recent consolidation range pivot-point) was needed to enhance further bullish advancement.

Instead, another quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.2100 then 1.2000 (corresponding to the previous bottom established on August 9).

Last Week, Early signs of bullish recovery (Bullish Engulfing candlesticks) were manifested around 1.1960 bringing the GBPUSD back above 1.2100.

As expected, further bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2200 where the GBPUSD pair looked overbought.

However, further bullish momentum was demonstrated towards 1.2320 bringing the pair back inside the depicted movement channel again.

Further bullish advancement should be expected towards 1.2400 - 1.2420 where the upper limit of the current movement channel comes to meet the pair.

The Long-term outlook remains bearish as long as the upper limit of the current movement channel around 1.2400 remains defended by the GBPUSD bears.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for the current bullish movement to pursue towards 1.2400-1.2420 (upper limit of the depicted movement channel) for a valid SELL entry.

T/P level to be placed around 1.2300, 1.2250 then 1.2220 while S/L should be placed above 1.2450.

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EUR/USD for September 10,2019 – Potential test of the upper diagonal

Trading 10 sept 2019 Commentaire »

EUR/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1047. There is still upside pressure from the background and potential test of the upper diagonal of the downward channel. Watch for potential re-test of the 1.1090.

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Yellow rectangle – Resistance level

Green lines – Downward channel

Based on the 4H time-frame, I still see that there is chance for re-test of the 1.1090. Key support zone is at 1.1015 and resistance levels at 1.109. Bears need to be very cautious as there is strong support on the test and potential re-test of the upper line of the channel. As long as the EUR is holding above 1.1015 there is a chance for potential test of 1.1090 or higher.

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Gold 09.10.2019 – Gold is testing key support zone, potential rally incoming

Trading 10 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price had an downward movement in past 24H.Anyway, there is still chance for more upside and potential test of $1,507 and $1,523. Key support zone is set at the price of $1,490-$1,480.

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Blue horizontal lines – Important resistance levels and upward objective

Yellow rectangle - major support area

Green rising line – Expected path

Based on the 4H time-frame, I found that MACD oscillator showed us the bullish divergence, which is good confirmation for the potential rally. Key support zone is at $1,490-$1,480 and resistance levels at $1,507-$1,523. Bears need to be very cautious as there is strong support on the test and bullish divergence on oscillator. As long as the Gold is holding above $1,480 there is a chance for potential test of $1,523 or higher.

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Draghi To End ECB Tenure With – A Bang Or Buzz

Trading 10 sept 2019 Commentaire »

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is widely expected to announced a fresh round of stimulus measures on Thursday to rev up the euro area economy, a final push before the expiry of his term at the end of October.

However, the group of hawkish policymakers opposed to a restart of the quantitative easing, or QE, has grown, casting doubts on the expectations for a comprehensive stimulus package. Draghi is set to hand over the reins to the outgoing International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde on October 31. The former French finance minister is set to inherit a host of unconventional policy measures the effectiveness of which are increasingly being doubted now. In the July policy meeting, the ECB had altered its forward guidance to clearly signal that it is planning an interest rate cut in the near term and a comprehensive stimulus package that could include a tiering system and a fresh round of asset purchases. The Governing Council is set to announce the policy decision at 7.45 am ET on September 12, Thursday. Draghi will hold his customary press conference at 8.30 am ET. Economists widely expect the bank to cut the deposit facility rate by 10 basis points to -0.50 percent.

The ECB may also opt for a tiered deposit rate that can reduce the burden of the cost banks pay on the cash they park at the central bank. The main refi rate is currently at a record low zero percent and the marginal lending facility rate is at 0.25 percent.

The bank is also expected to announce asset purchases of EUR 20-40 billion a month, running for a maximum 6-9 months. QE opponents, the main being the Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, fear further asset purchases, especially buying government bonds, would take the ECB too deep into uncertain territory. They are also worried about the urgency and effectiveness of such actions. The bank may also further tweak its forward guidance to reflect its more dovish stance and reprice the TLTRO-III longer term loans. The ECB ended its massive EUR 2.6 trillion Asset Purchase Programme, which began in 2015, in December.

Eurozone interest rates were raised last in July 2011 by 25 basis points and Draghi is set to be the only ECB chief thus far who did not raise interest rates. The Italian economist also raised several eyebrows as the was bold enough to undertake several unconventional measures at the ECB, mainly asset purchases and negative interest rates, which were inconceivable in the euro area years ago. Meanwhile, there has been no let up on the economic front. Eurozone inflation remains low and growth is slowing with no prospect of a strong rebound in the near future, thanks to the global slowdown and trade wars. The ECB has been chasing the goal of keeping inflation 'below, but close to 2 percent', but the headline figure hit 1 percent in August. Core inflation was steady at 0.9 percent. Growth in the 19-nation economy slowed to 0.2 percent in the second quarter from 0.4 percent in the previous three months. Further, the prospect of a recession in the biggest euro area economy, Germany, is growing. "If the ECB is really serious about closing the gap between inflation expectations and its own target, anything else but a big package can be the outcome of Thursday's meeting," ING Bank economist Carsten Brzeski said. "The costs of waiting or only delivering parts of a big package and then trying to get ahead of the curve at a later stage will be higher - an experience eurozone policymakers have had quite a few times during the last ten years."

The economist expects Draghi to unveil a total package in his final 'stunt'.


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BTC 09.10.2019 -Sellers in control, downward target set at $9,350

Trading 10 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Industry news:

Chairman of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Jay Clayton has said that the organization is getting ever closer to finally approving a bitcoin ETF. However, Clayton went onto warn that further work needs to be done to avoid the manipulation of price and make sure the market is transparent.

Technical view:

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Bitcoin did exactly what I expected last yesterday and our downward target is still expected at the price of $9.350

Pink lines – Larger symmetrical triangle in play

Black lines - Channel

Green falling line – Expected path

Nothing specially changed since my yesterday's analysis.I still still expect potential new wave down for potential fulfill of the lower symmetrical triangle boundary. Additionally, I found that momentum on the upside decreasing in last up wave, which is indication for the weak buyers on the market. Key support is at $9.350 and resistance at $11.000 and $11.200. Bulls need to be very cautious as there is strong aggressive selling from the key resistance. As long as the Bitcoin is trading below $11.200, I would watch for selling opportunities. Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies on lower frames 5/15 for better timing. Most recently, I found rejection of the middle Bollinger band, which is another confirmation for the downward continuation.

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