The Dollar index approaches our 99.15 target

Trading 02 sept 2019 Commentaire »

In a previous analysis back in August 20th we mentioned that we expect price to eventually break the resistance area around 98 and move towards 99-99.20 level. Today's high is at 99.07 and the weekly RSI continues to diverge.

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Green line - bearish divergence

Black line - major support trend line

Red rectangle - resistance (broken)

The Dollar index has broken above a multi month resistance area where prices got rejected several times. This time the break is real and prices move towards 99 as expected. Trend remains bullish and the break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is a big win for bulls. As long as price is above 98-97.70 bulls remain in control of the trend. The weekly RSI is testing important resistance area. The RSI does not confirm the new high by price. Traders should not ignore this bearish divergence. This is not a reversal signal but only a warning.

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Gold remains in a bullish trend

Trading 02 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price pulled back as low as $1,516 (respecting the $1,500-$1,490 support area) and is now trying to continue its up trend towards our target of $1,570 which is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the August 2018 to February 2019 rise.

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Red lines - bullish channel

Gold price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. Short-term trend remains bullish as long as price is above $1,500-$1,490 and inside this bullish channel. Support is found at $1,515 and next at $1,500. Resistance is at $1,533 and next at $1,550. As we mentioned in our previous post, Gold price could continue higher towards $1,570, however bulls should be cautious and protect their long positions by raising stops, as there are bearish divergence signs in the RSI. A new higher high around $1,570 with another bearish divergence in the 4 hour RSI would be ideal for at least a short-term top.

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The Central Bank will put the "Australian" on pause

Trading 02 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Talks about the resumption of trade negotiations between the US and China, as well as the serious package of macroeconomic statistics, (including data on foreign and retail trade, GDP) and the meeting of the Reserve Bank, are forcing investors to look closely at the Australian dollar. In late August, he was marked by a fall to a 10-year-old bottom relative to his American namesake but the situation could change in September.

The green continent can get rid of the double deficit, budget and current account for the first time since 1975 and the reasons for this must be sought in the rapid growth of the assets of the commodity market and the devaluation of "Aussie". Over the past 12 months, the AUD/USD pair has lost about 7% of its value. At the same time, iron ore soared in the spring to the level of $120 per ton, which was the maximum for several years. Budget revenues increased and export earnings.

Dynamics of coal and iron ore

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Improving the state of the budget and foreign trade is one of the important arguments in favor of a pause in the process of monetary expansion of the RBA. In June and July, the Reserve Bank lowered its basic interest rate to a historically low level of 1%, and now it needs to see how the economy of the Green Continent responds to the weakening of monetary policy. The derivatives market believes that the pause will be short-lived (by March 2020), the cash rate may drop to 0.5% amid continuing trade tensions between the US and China. The Central Bank itself does not exclude a fall in borrowing costs to 0.25-0.5% and the area from which, its colleagues from the United States, Canada and Britain usually began to raise rates. Nomura believes that there is a 40% chance of using unconventional monetary policy measures, including an asset purchase program.

In August, iron ore prices were the worst dynamics in history due to a reduction in demand from Chinese consumer plants and a solution to supply problems from Brazil. This circumstance, coupled with the escalation of the conflict between Washington and Beijing and the RBA's intention to continue to weaken monetary policy, made the outsider G10 out of the Australian dollar. Only the Scandinavian currencies and the "New Zealander" look worse than him, whose Central Bank decided to reduce the rate by 50 bp immediately during one meeting.

Despite the fact that RBA deputy governor, Guy Debelel, believes that AUD/USD pair may fall to 0.5 due to external factors, improving the economy of the Green Continent and increasing the sensitivity of US GDP to trade wars can help fans of the "Australian" find the bottom. In particular, the passivity of the Reserve Bank in September, strong data on the gross domestic product of the Green Continent and weak statistics on the American labor market can lead to an increase in the analyzed pair.

Technically, the harmonious trading patterns AB=CD and "Shark" signal that the pair may collapse to 0.6 and 0.53 on the monthly AUD / USD chart. However, in my opinion, this will require a recession in the US and a significant slowdown in the Chinese economy. If the bulls manage to close September above 0.685, the risks of correction will increase.

AUD / USD monthly chart

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September 2, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 02 sept 2019 Commentaire »

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On July 5, a consolidation range bearish breakout was demonstrated below 1.2550 corresponding to the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Moreover, Bearish breakdown below 1.2385 (Prominent Bottom) facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.2320, 1.2210 and 1.2100 which corresponded to significant key-levels on the Weekly chart.

In Early August, a temporary consolidation-range was established above 1.2100 before August 9 when temporary bearish movement was executed towards 1.2025.

Recent bullish recovery was demonstrated off the recent bottom (1.2025).

This brought the GBP/USD pair back above 1.2100 (Lower limit of the recently established consolidation-zone).

As expected, further bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2230 then 1.2280 where recent bearish rejection was demonstrated.

Bullish persistence above 1.2160 (the recent consolidation range pivot-point) was needed to enhance further bullish advancement towards 1.2320 then 1.2380.

However, recent bearish rejection was demonstrated around 1.2215 (backside of the depicted broken uptrend line).

That's why, another bearish decline is currently taking place towards 1.2050. Thus, challenging the recent weekly bottom established on August 9.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders are advised to wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.2160 for a valid SELL entry.

T/P level to be placed around 1.2100 and 1.2020, while S/L should be placed above 1.2220.

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#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY: Comprehensive analysis of movement options from August 01, 2019 APLs &

Trading 02 sept 2019 Commentaire »

What the first month of autumn prepares for us is a comprehensive analysis of the options for the movement of currency instruments, particularly #USDX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY pairs from September 1, 2019.

Minute Operational Scale (H4 timeframe )

Previous review on #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD of 08/29/2019 17:37 UTC + 3

US dollar index

The direction of breakdown range :

The resistance level is at 98.93 (local maximum);

The support level is at 98.70 (final Schiff Line Minuette operational scale pitchfork), which will determine the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX from September 1, 2019.

Breakdown of support level at 98.70 (the final Minuette Schiff Line) is an option for the development of the downward movement of the dollar index to the borders of the equilibrium zone (98.60 - 98.50 - 98.37) and channel at 1/2 of the Median Line (98.33 - 98.22 - 98.11) forks of the Minuette operational scale with the prospect of achieving the initial SSL Minuette (98.00) and 1/2 Median Line Minute ( 97.80) lines.

The upward movement of #USDX can be continued with the upgrade of maximum`s 98.93 and 99.02, and it will be directed to the goals - control line UTL (99.20) forks Minuette operational scale- control line UTL (99.50) forks Minuette operational scale.

Details of the #USDX movement are presented in the animated chart.

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Euro vs US Dollar

The movements of the single European currency against the dollar from September 1, 2019 will also receive its development depending on the direction of the breakdown of the range:

The resistance level is at (control line LTL Minuette operational scale pitchfork);

The support level is at (final Schiff Line Minuette operational scale pitchfork)

A breakdown of the resistance level at 1.09905 (control line LTL forks of the operational scale Minute) followed by a breakdown of the warning line LWL38.2 Minute (1.1005) will determine the development of the upward movement of the single European currency to the channel boundaries 1/2 Median Line forks of the operational scale - Minuette (1.1056 - 1.1085 - 1.1110) and Minute (1.1120 - 1.1160 - 1.1200).

Breakdown of the final Schiff Line Minuette (support level of 1.0970) will make it relevant to continue the downward movement of the EUR/USD pair to the borders of the equilibrium zone (1.0895 - 1.0860 - 1.0825) forks of the Minuette operational scale.

Details of the EUR/USD movement options are shown in the animated chart.

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Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar

As with previous currency instruments, the development of GBP/USD currency movement from September 1, 2019 will depend on the direction of the breakdown of the range :

The resistance level is at 1.2160 (lower boundary of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette);

The support level is at 1.2145 (upper limit of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the forks of the Minuette operational scale)

In case of a breakdown of the resistance level at 1.2160, the GBP/USD movement will again occur inside the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.2160 - 1.2190 - 1.2225), If the upper boundary (1.2225) of this channel is broken, the upward movement of this instrument can continue to the targets - the initial line SSL ( 1.2284 ) forks of operational scale Minuette, which coincides with 1/2 Median Line Minute - local maximum 1.2309 - control line UTL Minuette (1.2325) - upper boundary of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minute (1.2385).

In case of breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (support level 1.2145), the GBP/USD movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (1.2145 - 1.2100 - 1.2055) forks of the Minuette operational scale with the prospect of reaching and updating the minimum of 1.2015.

Details of the GBP/USD movement can be seen on the animated chart.

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US Dollar vs Japanese Yen

The development of the currency movement of the "country of the rising sun" USD/JPY from September 1, 2019 will also be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range:

The resistance level is at 106.45 (lower boundary of ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of forks of Minuette operational scale);

The support level is at 106.15 (final Schiff Line Minuette)

The breakdown of the support level 106.15 (the final Schiff Line Minuette) will direct the USD/JPY movement to the equilibrium zone (105.85 - 105.30 - 104.75) forks of the Minuette operational scale.

With the breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (resistance level of 106.45), the development of the currency of the "rising sun country" will continue in the equilibrium zone (106.45 - 106.95 - 107.40) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the SSL start line (107.55) of the Minute operational scale.

We look at the details of the USD/JPY movement on the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers and it is not a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown on March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

ZUP and Andrews Pitchfork (terms, concepts, parameters).

ZUP & APL`s Analysis Study Materials.

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American currency strengthens its position

Trading 02 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Currently, the trend to strengthen the US dollar is developing in the financial markets. In many ways, this contributes to the next round of the trade war between Washington and Beijing. The US dollar index also shows peak values, experts said.

The American currency rises in relation to the majority of world currencies. Analysts believe the inflow of capital into the United States from a number of American investors seeking to secure their assets is the reason for this. As a result, the US dollar index, considering the ratio of the US currency to a basket of major currencies and the main trading partners of America, has skyrocketed since May 2017. This is the most significant weekly increase over the past 16 months, analysts emphasized.

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At the moment, the EUR/USD pair has overcome an important psychological milestone at the level of 1.10. On Monday, September 2, experts recorded a recovery of purchases in the EUR/USD. Experts are sure that a similar trend indicates that the main battle for the 1.1000 mark is yet to come.

Some experts believe that the growth of the US dollar index is largely due to the weakening of the European currency. However, further strengthening of the US currency is quite possible. Cancellation of the "bullish" scenario may be the return of the index quotes to the support level of 98.65. In the EUR/USD pair, a breakout to the support of 1.1065–1.1070 will provoke a strong wave of sales and as a result, it will open the possibility to achieve targets of 1.1025 and 1.1000. At the moment, the psychological support level of 1.1000 has been broken. In this regard, experts predict a further weakening of the pair in the long term. The global "bearish" scenario remains the main one until quotes return above the level of 1.1070, analysts emphasized.

Weak indicators from the US can hold back the strengthening of the American currency and provoke its rollback after the previous growth. However, an upward trend in the US dollar index is possible in the long term, experts assured. The current trend to strengthen the US currency may further develop. Experts concluded that support will be provided by tough trade rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve and growing concern about the global economic growth rate.

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September 2, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 02 sept 2019 Commentaire »

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Back in June 24, the EURUSD looked overbought around 1.1400 facing a confluence of supply levels which generated significant bearish pressure over the pair.

Shortly after, In the period between 8 - 22 July, a sideway consolidation-range was established between 1.1200 - 1.1275 until a triple-top reversal pattern was demonstrated around the upper limit.

Then, Evident bearish momentum (bearish engulfing H4 candlestick) could bring the EURUSD below 1.1175.

This facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.1115 (Previous Weekly Low) then 1.1025 (the lower limit of the depicted recent bearish channel) where significant signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated.

Shortly-After in Mid-August, the EUR/USD has been trapped between 1.1235-1.1175 for a few trading sessions until bearish breakout below 1.1175 occurred on August 14.

Bearish breakout below 1.1175 promoted further bearish decline towards 1.1075 where the backside of the broken bearish channel has provided temporary bullish demand for sometime (Bullish Triple-Bottom pattern).

Bullish persistence above 1.1115 was needed to confirm the short-term trend reversal into bullish.

However, the depicted Triple-Bottom pattern was invalidated especially after the EURUSD pair bulls have failed to establish Bullish persistence above 1.1115.

Moreover, the recently established short-term uptrend line has been invalidated as well. This turned the short-term outlook as bearish.

By the end of last week's consolidations, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.0980-1.0965 where the backside of the broken channel comes to meet the EURUSD pair again.

Trade recommendations :

Risky traders are advised to look for a valid BUY entry anywhere around the current price levels down to 1.0950. T/p levels to be located around 1.1015 and 1.1050.

Conservative traders should wait for bullish pullback towards 1.1050-1.1070 for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed just above 1.1095 while target levels can be determined later based on theupcoming price action.

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To open short positions on GBP / USD pair, you need:

Trading 02 sept 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on GBP / USD pair, you need:

The report on a sharp decline in manufacturing activity in the UK put pressure on the British pound. Furthermore, the breakthrough of quite important support levels led to the triggering of stop orders of buyers and a larger downward movement of the pound. Currently, buyers have managed to stop the decline in the GBP/USD pair in the support area of 1.2065, but it is too early to talk about a larger upward correction. While trading is conducted above the range of 1.2065, albeit, the chance to strengthen the pound remains very small. However, it is best to rely on larger long positions after updating the lows of 1.2018 and 1.1985. The main objective of the bulls is to close the day above the resistance of 1.2107, from which the growth of the pound may remain until the maximum of 1.2143 is updated, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on GBP / USD pair, you need:

The pressure of Boris Johnson on conservative deputies of his party, who supports an attempt to block Britain's exit from the EU without an agreement, and weak fundamental data continues to put pressure on the pound. The breakout of the support at 1.2143 has expectedly led to a major sell-off of the pound, which I paid attention to in my morning review. At the moment, the bears need a second test of a minimum of 1.2065, which will resume pressure on the GBP/USD pair and will lead to an update of levels 1.2018 and 1.1985. However, the only thing that keeps the pound from a larger fall is so far a day off in the US and Canadian markets in connection with the celebration of Labor Day, which will significantly reduce trading volumes. In an upward correction scenario, it is best to consider short positions in a pound after a false breakdown of resistance 1.2107 or on a rebound from a maximum of 1.2143.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a return of the sellers to the market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of pound growth, the upward potential will be limited by the average border of the indicator in the region of 1.2145.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD plan for the American session on September 2: MACD Morning Divergence helps stop the decline of euro

Trading 02 sept 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions in the EUR/USD pair, you need:

In the morning forecast, I drew attention to the divergence formed on the MACD indicator and the support level of 1.0955, from which I recommended to open long positions in the euro. The purchase scenario worked out completely. While trading is above the range of 1.0955, we can expect the EUR/USD pair to return to the resistance area of 1.0982, where I recommend taking profits. Fixation above this level will lead to a larger upward correction to a maximum of 1.1010. If the bears return to the market in the afternoon, which is unlikely amid the day off and activity on the US and Canadian markets will be very low, it is best to count on new long positions after updating the minimum of 1.0927.

To open short positions in the EUR/USD pair, you need:

Euro sellers expectedly took advantage of the weak report on activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone and sold the euro below the support of 1.0982, which I also paid attention to in the morning. However, it was not possible to break through the first time below the minimum of 1.0955. Currently, the main task of the euro sellers is to retest this area, which is likely to lead to its breakthrough and a further downward movement of the pair in the region of lows 1.0927 and 1.0900, where I recommend taking profit. If the demand for the euro remains in the afternoon against the backdrop of a weekend in the US, it is best to count on short positions after a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.0982 or a rebound from a maximum of 1.1010.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a bear market.

Bollinger bands

In case of growth of the euro, the upside potential of the indicator will be limited by the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.1000.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BTC 09.02.2019 – Sell zone for Bitcoin

Trading 02 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin 1H time-frame:

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Yellow rectangle – Major resitance

Pink trendline – Expected path

Brown trendline – Supply-Resitance trendline

Bitcoin on the 1-hour is testing the key supply trend line. I do expect potential end of the upward correction in near future. I didn't find any major reversal activity in the background and that is why I still see more potential for the downside. Major resistance is set at the price of $10,000. I also found the bearish divergence in creation on the MACD oscillator, which is another indication for the further downside.

Bitcoin Forecast and recommendations for traders:

Bitcoin is in overall consolidation phase but most recently I found test of the major resistance, which is sign that there is chance for more downside and potential of $9,727 or $9,106. Thus, I recommend selling crypto currency with a target of $9,270, with a Stop Loss level of $10,700.

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