Dollar Gains Against Major Rivals

Trading 30 sept 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar gained against most major currencies on Monday amid easing worries about trade war following comments from key officials in the Trump administration denying reports of limiting some U.S. investments in China.

The denial came after reports suggested last week that the U.S. government was considering plans to delist Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges and limit U.S. investors' portfolio flows into China.

Treasury Department spokeswoman Monica Crowley denied reports the Trump administration is considering delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges.

"The administration is not contemplating blocking Chinese companies from listing shares on U.S. stock exchanges at this time. We welcome investment in the United States," she said in a statement.

Crowley's statement comes on the heels of reports suggesting the administration is contemplating ways to curb U.S. investments in China.

Meanwhile, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro attacked the media reports in an interview with CNBC on Monday, claiming "over half" of a Bloomberg report about potential restrictions was "highly inaccurate or simply flat-out false."

The dollar index, which rose to 99.46, was last seen at 99.41, up 0.3% from previous close.

Against the euro, the dollar strengthened to 1.0887 before paring some gains as it eased to 1.0902, still up by a notable margin of about 0.37% from Friday's close.

Eurozone unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped in August to its lowest level in more than a decade, preliminary data from Eurostat showed on Monday.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 7.4% from 7.5% in July. Economists had expected the rate to remain unchanged.

The latest unemployment rate was the lowest since May 2008, Eurostat said. In August 2018, the jobless rate was 8%.

Against pound sterling, the dollar was little changed at 1.2294, after having recovered to 1.2275 earlier from a low of 1.2345 a unit of sterling.

The Japanese yen was down 0.16% at 108.10 a dollar, compared to 107.93 yen a dollar late Friday.

The yen weakened after preliminary data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed that Japan's industrial production declined at a faster-than-expected rate in August.

Industrial production fell 1.2% month-on-month in August. Economists had expected a fall of 0.5%.

The Aussie was down 0.21% against the greenback with the Aussie-Dollar pair trading at 0.6750.

Against the loonie, the dollar was down marginally at 1.3245, and against Swiss franc, it gained about 0.7% at 0.9979.

Chicago-area business activity unexpectedly returned to contraction in the month of September, according to a report released by MNI Indicators on Monday.

MNI Indicators said its Chicago business barometer slumped to 47.1 in September after rebounding to 50.4 in August. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in Chicago-area business activity.

The index indicated a contraction for the third time in four months, while economists had expected a much more modest decrease to a reading of 50.2.

The production index led the way lower, plunging by 7.6 points to 40.4 in September, hitting its lowest level since May of 2009. The new orders index also tumbled by 7.6 points or 48.5.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Treasuries Close Flat After Recovering From Early Weakness

Trading 30 sept 2019 Commentaire »

After coming under pressure early in the session, treasuries rebounded over the course of the trading day on Monday before closing roughly flat.

Bond prices spent most of the afternoon lingering near the unchanged line. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, ended the day unchanged at 1.675 percent.

Treasuries initially moved to the downside in reaction to news that a Treasury Department spokeswoman denied reports the Trump administration is considering delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges

"The administration is not contemplating blocking Chinese companies from listing shares on U.S. stock exchanges at this time. We welcome investment in the United States," Treasury spokeswoman Monica Crowley said in a statement.

Crowley's statement comes on the heels of reports suggesting the administration is contemplating ways to curb U.S. investments in China.

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro attacked the media reports in an interview with CNBC on Monday, claiming "over half" of a Bloomberg report about potential restrictions was "highly inaccurate or simply flat-out false."

"This story was just so full of inaccuracies and in terms of the truth of the matter, what the Treasury said I think was accurate," Navarro said.

Better than expected manufacturing data out of China also tempered some of the recent concerns about the impact of the U.S.-China trade war.

However, treasuries rebounded as MNI Indicators released a report showing Chicago-area business activity unexpectedly returned to contraction in the month of September.

MNI Indicators said its Chicago business barometer slumped to 47.1 in September after rebounding to 50.4 in August. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in Chicago-area business activity.

The index indicated a contraction for the third time in four months, while economists had expected a much more modest decrease to a reading of 50.2.

MNI Indicators said its reading on prices at the factory gate rose 4.1 points to 57.7 in third quarter, with anecdotal evidence pointing to tariffs affecting prices and business activity.

Reports on manufacturing activity and construction spending may attract some attention on Tuesday, although trading activity may be somewhat subdued ahead of the release of the more closely watched monthly jobs report on Friday.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Crude Oil Futures Tumble, End At 1-month Low

Trading 30 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices tumbled on Monday and November futures contract settled at their lowest level in nearly a month, on lingering worries about trade and rising concerns about falling energy demand.

Data showing a contraction in China's manufacturing sector for a fifth straight month raised concerns about outlook for energy demand and weighed on the commodity.

Slightly fading concerns about Middle East tensions and supply shortages thanks to restoration of oil production in Saudi Arabia contributed significantly to oil's slide.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November ended down $1.84, or about 3.3%, at $54.07 a barrel.

Brent crude futures shed $1.16, or 1.9%, at $60.75 a barrel.

On Friday, WTI crude oil futures for November ended down $0.50, or 0.9%, at $55.91 a barrel.

The official data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that China's factory sector continued to contract in September.

Survey data from IHS Markit showed on Monday that China's manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest pace since early 2018 in September despite ongoing trade disputes with the United States.

The manufacturing PMI climbed to 49.8 from 49.5 a month ago.

The Caixin factory Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.4 in September from 50.4 in August.

In U.S.-China trade related news, Treasury Department spokeswoman Monica Crowley denied reports the Trump administration is considering delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges.

"The administration is not contemplating blocking Chinese companies from listing shares on U.S. stock exchanges at this time. We welcome investment in the United States," she said in a statement.

Crowley's statement comes on the heels of reports suggesting the administration is contemplating ways to curb U.S. investments in China.

Meanwhile, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro attacked the media reports in an interview with CNBC on Monday, claiming "over half" of a Bloomberg report about potential restrictions was "highly inaccurate or simply flat-out false."


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Futures Plunge Sharply, Settle At 2-month Low

Trading 30 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices declined sharply as the dollar strengthened and equities edged higher after top officials in the Trump administration dismissed reports about U.S. planning to delist Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges.

The dollar index advanced to 99.46 and stayed steady around that level. It was last seen trading at 99.42, up 0.31% from previous close.

Gold futures for December ended down $33.50, or about 2.2%, at $1,472.90 an ounce, the lowest settlement in almost two months.

On Friday, gold futures for December ended down $8.80, or about 0.6%, at $1,506.40 an ounce.

Gold futures lost about 3.7% in the month of September.

Silver futures for December ended down $0.654, at $16.998 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $2.5785 per pound, down $0.0190 from previous close.

In U.S. economic news, MNI Indicators released a report showing Chicago-area business activity unexpectedly returned to contraction in the month of September.

MNI Indicators said its Chicago business barometer slumped to 47.1 in September after rebounding to 50.4 in August. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in Chicago-area business activity.

The index indicated a contraction for the third time in four months, while economists had expected a much more modest decrease to a reading of 50.2.

MNI Indicators said its reading on prices at the factory gate rose 4.1 points to 57.7 in third quarter, with anecdotal evidence pointing to tariffs affecting prices and business activity.

In U.S.-China trade related news, Treasury Department spokeswoman Monica Crowley denied reports the Trump administration is considering delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges.

"The administration is not contemplating blocking Chinese companies from listing shares on U.S. stock exchanges at this time. We welcome investment in the United States," she said in a statement.

Crowley's statement comes on the heels of reports suggesting the administration is contemplating ways to curb U.S. investments in China.

Meanwhile, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro attacked the media reports in an interview with CNBC on Monday, claiming "over half" of a Bloomberg report about potential restrictions was "highly inaccurate or simply flat-out false."

"This story was just so full of inaccuracies and in terms of the truth of the matter, what the Treasury said I think was accurate," Navarro said.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

September 30, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 30 sept 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5d92367225bcc.jpg

On September 5, the EUR/USD pair was testing the backside of both broken trends around 1.1060-1.1080 where significant bearish pressure was demonstrated pushing the pair directly towards 1.0940 (Prominent Weekly Bottom).

Bearish Breakout below the price level of 1.0940 was needed to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.0900 and 1.0840 (Fibonacci Expansion Key-Levels).

However, considerable bullish rejection was demonstrated as a quick bullish spike towards 1.1100 where another episode of bearish pressure was expressed.

Shortly-After, TWO DESCENDING-Tops were established around 1.1080 and 1.1050.

This rendered the recent bullish spike as a bullish trap. Since then, the EURUSD has been trending-down within the depicted short-term bearish channel.

On September 23, a recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 1.1020 was obviously rejected by the end of Tuesday's consolidations.

Bearish persistence below 1.0965 (recent daily bottom) enhanced more bearish decline towards 1.0930 and 1.0890 (Fibonacci Expansion 161.8%) where recent signs of bullish recovery is being demonstrated

Moreover, the EUR/USD is demonstrating a long-term Head & Shoulders continuation pattern extending between (1.0930 - 1.1080) with neckline located around 1.0940.

As long as bearish persistence below 1.0940 (Neckline) is maintained, Pattern projection target would remain projected towards 1.0840.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should look for a valid SELL entry anywhere around the price zone of 1.0940-1.0960 (upper limit of the depicted movement channel).

Initial Target levels should be located at 1.0900, 1.0850 and 1.0840.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hungary Producer Price Inflation At 3-Month High; Gross Earnings Rise

Trading 30 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Hungary's producer price inflation rose to the highest level in three months in August, figures from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office showed on Monday.

The producer price index rose 0.9 percent year-on-year in August, following a 0.3 percent increase in July.

The latest inflation was the highest since May, when prices rose 2.7 percent.

Prices changes were influenced by changes in base material and world market prices and by wage growth, the agency said.

Domestic market producer prices grew 2.4 percent in August and foreign market prices rose 0.2 percent.

Separate data from the statistical office showed that the gross wages grew 10.7 percent year-on-year in July.

For the January to July period, gross wages and net earnings increased by 10.6 percent each.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Chicago Business Activity Unexpectedly Resumes Contraction In September

Trading 30 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Chicago-area business activity unexpectedly returned to contraction in the month of September, according to a report released by MNI Indicators on Monday.

MNI Indicators said its Chicago business barometer slumped to 47.1 in September after rebounding to 50.4 in August. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in Chicago-area business activity.

The index indicated a contraction for the third time in four months, while economists had expected a much more modest decrease to a reading of 50.2.

The production index led the way lower, plunging by 7.6 points to 40.4 in September, hitting its lowest level since May of 2009. The new orders index also tumbled by 7.6 points or 48.5.

While the employment index improved slightly to 45.6 in September, the quarterly average fell to 44.1, recording the weakest quarter since the fourth quarter of 2009.

MNI Indicators said its reading on prices at the factory gate rose 4.1 points to 57.7 in third quarter, with anecdotal evidence pointing to tariffs affecting prices and business activity.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Turkey Trade Deficit Widens In August

Trading 30 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Turkey trade deficit widened in August, amid a rise in both exports and imports, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Monday.

The trade deficit rose to $2.50 billion in August from $2.47 billion in the same month last year.

Exports rose 1.6 percent annually in August and imports grew 1.5 percent.

On a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, exports declined by 1.5 percent in August, while imports rose 0.4 percent from the previous month.

Calendar adjusted exports and imports decreased by 0.8 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively, from a year ago.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Dollar Spikes Up As Trade Worries Recede A Little

Trading 30 sept 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar strengthened against its major counterparts in the European session on Monday, as worries over a trade war eased a bit after U.S. denied reports of limiting some U.S. investments in China.

Over the weekend, a US official said that the administration does not intend to block Chinese companies from listing shares on U.S. stock exchanges at this time.

This came after media reports suggested Friday that the Trump administration was considering ways to delist Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges and limit U.S. investors' portfolio flows into China.

The Chinese state-owned media called Washington's potential restrictions on U.S. investments in China "the latest attempt at a decoupling" and warned such measures will have significant repercussions for the Chinese and U.S. economies, as well as their companies, in the future.

U.S. and China trade team are scheduled to meet in Washington on October 10. The talks had broken down early this year, with both sides responding with tit-for-tat tariffs on each others' goods.

The currency held steady against its major counterparts in the Asian session, excepting the yen.

The greenback appreciated to near a 2-week high of 0.9973 against the franc from last week's closing value of 0.9906. The next likely resistance for the greenback is seen around the 1.01 level.

Reversing from a low of 107.74 hit at 3:15 am ET, the greenback edged up to 108.09 against the yen. The greenback may find resistance around the 111.00 level.

Preliminary data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed that Japan's industrial production declined at a faster-than-expected rate in August.

Industrial production fell 1.2 percent month-on-month in August. Economists had expected a fall of 0.5 percent.

The greenback spiked up to 1.0885 against the euro, a level unseen since May 2017. On the upside, 1.06 is possibly seen as the next resistance for the greenback.

Preliminary data from Eurostat showed that Eurozone unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped in August to its lowest level in more than a decade.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 7.4 percent from 7.5 percent in July. Economists had expected the rate to remain unchanged.

The greenback bounced off to 1.2290 against the pound, from a low of 1.2330 hit at 5:00 am ET. The greenback is poised to find resistance around the 1.21 region.

Data from the Bank of England showed that British households' borrowing declined in August as uncertainties surrounding Brexit weighed on consumer confidence.

The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase fell to 65,500 in August from an18-month high of 67,000 in July. This was well below the forecast of 66,500.

The greenback reversed from an early low of 1.3224 against the loonie, rising to 1.3260. If the greenback rises further, it may find resistance around the 1.35 level.

On the flip side, the greenback retreated to 0.6760 against the aussie and 0.6273 against the kiwi, from its early high of 0.6746 and a 4-year high of 0.6249, respectively. The greenback is seen finding support around 0.71 against the aussie and 0.66 against the kiwi.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

September 30, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 30 sept 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5d9217d76d50e.jpg

In Early August, another consolidation-range was temporarily established between the price levels of (1.2100 - 1.2220) except on August 9 when temporary bearish decline below 1.2100 was executed towards 1.2025 (Previous Weekly-Bottom).

Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been trending-up within the depicted bullish channel except on September 3 when a temporary bearish breakout was demonstrated towards 1.1960.

Around the price level of 1.1960, aggressive signs of bullish recovery (Bullish Engulfing candlesticks) brought the GBPUSD back above 1.2230 where the pair looked overbought.

However, further bullish momentum was demonstrated towards 1.2320 maintaining the bullish movement inside the depicted movement channel.

Moreover, Temporary bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2550 where a reversal wedge pattern was established.

As anticipated, the reversal wedge pattern was confirmed by the end of the previous Monday's consolidations supported by obvious bearish price action demonstrating a successful bearish closure below 1.2450.

On Tuesday, the backside of the confirmed reversal wedge was successfully re-tested around 1.2500 where a new episode of bearish rejection was expressed.

The Long-term outlook remains bearish as long as the most recent top established around 1.2500 remains defended by the GBP/USD bears.

Bearish persistence below 1.2440-1.2400 (Reversal-Pattern Neckline) allowed more bearish decline to occur towards the price levels of 1.2300 where early signs of bullish rejection was demonstrated by the end of last week's consolidations.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can wait for bullish pullback towards the backside of the broken channel (Anywhere around 1.2400-1.2450) for another valid SELL entry.

T/P level to be placed around 1.2360, 1.2330 and 1.2280 while S/L should be set as a H4 candlestick closure above 1.2450.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com