USDJPY could reach 107.50-108 the next few days

Trading 29 août 2019 Commentaire »

USDJPY is bouncing above 106.50 and is breaking short-term resistance levels. The bullish divergence warning signs in the RSI that we mentioned yesterday get confirmed today. This bounce could push price even towards 108-109 if we break above 106.70-106.80.

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Blue lines - bullish divergence

Red line -short-term resistance trend line

Green line - very important trend line resistance

USDJPY is moving above the red trend line resistance. Holding and stabilizing above 106.50 is key for the bullish scenario. USDJPY has the potential to bounce towards 108 or even 109 but bulls need to break above 106.80 next and stay above it. First bounce target is to see price touch the green downward sloping trend line resistance. If this trend line is broken we should expect USDJPY to touch the lower broken triangle boundary around 109. Holding above 105.65-105.80 is key for this short-term bounce.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD breaking recent lows targeting 1.0950

Trading 29 août 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD is trading at 1.1050 and looks very vulnerable to a move below 1.10 towards 1.0950. As long as price is below 1.1152 trend will remain bearish. There are bullish divergence signs but no reversal signal yet.

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Blue line - resistance trend line

Green rectangle - support

Red rectangle -target if support fails to hold

EURUSD bulls remain weak. Price is breaking below the green support area and should continue lower towards the red rectangle at 1.0950. Trend is bearish. Resistance is at 1.1150 at the blue trend line. Bulls need to break above that trend line in order to hope for a short-term trend reversal to the upside. Bears remain in control of the trend for now.

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Has Gold topped?

Trading 29 août 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price got rejected at $1,545-50 and has canceled the bullish cup with handle pattern. Gold price could see price move $100 lower as there are Daily bearish divergence warning signs that should not be ignored.

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Red lines - bullish channel

Green line - bearish divergence

Gold price is trading inside the bullish channel. Trend is bullish. However the RSI bearish divergence suggests that bulls need to be very cautious. Support is at $1,492 and resistance at $1,550. Important for the short-term trend is also the $1,539 level. As long as we trade below this level short-term trend is bearish with potential for a move lower towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement and the $1,450 area. The last stand for short-term bulls is at $1,492. Failure to stay above it will be a bearish sign. $1,510 is also short-term support and breaking it will be a sign of strength from the side of bears. Support is also found at the lower channel boundary at $1,472.

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Seven-Year Note Auction Attracts Below Average Demand

Trading 29 août 2019 Commentaire »

After revealing above average demand for its auctions of two-year and five-year notes earlier this week, the Treasury Department showed Thursday that its auction of $32 billion worth of seven-year notes attracted well below average demand.

The seven-year note auction drew a high yield of 1.489 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.16.

The Treasury also sold $32 billion worth of seven-year notes last month, drawing a high yield of 1.967 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.27.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous seven-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46.

Earlier this week, the Treasury released the results of its auctions of $40 billion worth of two-year notes and $41 billion worth of five-year notes.


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U.S. Pending Home Sales Show Substantial Pullback In July

Trading 29 août 2019 Commentaire »

After reporting a sharp increase in U.S. pending home sales over the two previous months, the National Association of Realtors released a report on Thursday showing a significant pullback in pending home sales in the month of July.

NAR said its pending home sales index tumbled by 2.5 percent to 105.6 in July after surging up by 2.8 percent to 108.3 in June. The steep drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected pending sales to come in unchanged.

With the monthly decrease, pending home sales in July were down by 0.3 percent compared to the same month a year ago after showing a 1.6 percent year-over-year jump in the previous month.

A pending home sale is one in which a contract was signed but not yet closed. Normally, it takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale.

"Super-low mortgage rates have not yet consistently pulled buyers back into the market," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.

He added, "Economic uncertainty is no doubt holding back some potential demand, but what is desperately needed is more supply of moderately priced homes."

NAR said the pullback in pending home sales reflected decreases in contract activity in all four regions, with pending sales in the West showing a particularly steep 3.4 percent decline.

Pending home sales in the South and Midwest also plunged by 2.5 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, while pending sales in the Northeast slumped by 1.6 percent.

Looking ahead, Yun said home sales will get a short-term boost from lower mortgage rates, but he expects existing home sales in 2019 to be flat at 5.34 million due to the level of sales in the first seven months of the year.

The median price of existing homes is expected to continue increasing amid tight inventory conditions, although the pace of home price growth is expected to slow to 4 percent in 2019 and 3 percent in 2020.

"A boost to home building would greatly improve economic growth," Yun said, noting low inventory numbers impact the nation's overall economy.

"More free market prices on construction materials without government interference about where homebuilders have to get their supply will also help produce more and grow the economy," he added. "The housing industry cannot grow without more supply."

Yun expects GDP growth to ease to 2.0 percent in 2019 and 1.6 percent in 2020, although he noted growth predictions are somewhat uncertain due to trade tensions.


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*Indonesia FinMin Lowers 2019 Growth Forecast To 5.08% From 5.2%

Trading 29 août 2019 Commentaire »

Indonesia FinMin Lowers 2019 Growth Forecast To 5.08% From 5.2%


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*Italy's Conte Given Mandate To Form New Government

Trading 29 août 2019 Commentaire »

Italy's Conte Given Mandate To Form New Government


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*U.S. Pending Home Sales Tumble 2.5% In July

Trading 29 août 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Pending Home Sales Tumble 2.5% In July


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August 29, 2019 : Despite Recent Intraday Bearish Rejection, EUR/USD positivity remains an option.

Trading 29 août 2019 Commentaire »

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Back in June 24, the EURUSD looked overbought around 1.1400 facing a confluence of supply levels which generated significant bearish pressure over the pair.

Shortly after, In the period between 8 - 22 July, a sideway consolidation-range was established between 1.1200 - 1.1275 until a triple-top reversal pattern was demonstrated around the upper limit.

Then, Evident bearish momentum (bearish engulfing H4 candlestick) could bring the EURUSD below 1.1175.

This facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.1115 (Previous Weekly Low) then 1.1025 (the lower limit of the depicted recent bearish channel) where significant signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated.

Risky traders were advised to look for bullish breakout above 1.1050 as a bullish signal for an Intraday BUY entry with bullish targets around (1.1115, 1.1175 and 1.1235). All of which were successfully reached.

Shortly-After in Mid-August, the EUR/USD has been trapped between 1.1235-1.1175 for a few trading sessions until bearish breakout below 1.1175 occurred on August 14.

Bearish breakout below 1.1175 promoted further bearish decline towards 1.1075 where the backside of the broken bearish channel has been providing significant bullish demand so far (A Bullish Triple-Bottom pattern is in progress).

Bullish persistence above 1.1115 is needed to confirm the short-term trend reversal into bullish.

This would enhance another bullish spike towards 1.1175 as an initial bullish target.

Intraday bearish rejection is currently being manifested on the chart. However, bullish expectations remain valid unless quick bearish breakout below 1.1040 is achieved during today's consolidations.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders are advised to have a valid BUY entry anywhere around the current price levels.

Initial T/P levels should be located around 1.1150, 1.1175 and 1.1200.

Tight S/L should be placed just below 1.1040 ( the depicted newly-established uptrend line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*ECB's Nowotny: Central Banks Must Disappoint Markets Sometimes: Wiener Zeitung

Trading 29 août 2019 Commentaire »

ECB's Nowotny: Central Banks Must Disappoint Markets Sometimes: Wiener Zeitung


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