Treasuries Close Modestly Lower Following Choppy Trading Day

Trading 26 août 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries showed a lack of direction over the course of the trading day on Monday following the rally seen in the previous session.

Bond prices spent the day bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line before moving to the downside going into the close. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, inched up by 1.7 basis points to 1.545 percent.

The modest pullback by treasuries came as President Donald Trump continued to express optimism about a potential U.S.-China trade deal despite the ever-escalating trade war.

Trump told reporters at the G-7 summit in France that top Chinese officials had called asking for the resumption of trade talks.

"China called, last night, our top trade people, and said, 'Let's get back to the table.' So, we'll be getting back to the table. And I think they want to do something," Trump said.

"They've been hurt very badly, but they understand this is the right thing to do. And I have great respect for it. I have great respect for it. This is a very positive development for the world," he added.

However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said he was not aware of any call between U.S. and Chinese officials and Trump refused to provide details.

It is worth noting that Trump routinely makes optimistic remarks about U.S.-China trade talks even as he continues to escalate the dispute between the two economic superpowers.

Trump once again ramped up the trade war after the close of trading last Friday by announcing plans to raise the rate of tariffs previously imposed on Chinese imports.

A 25 percent tariff on approximately $250 billion worth of Chinese imports will be raised to 30 percent beginning October 1st, while the 10 percent tariff on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports that Trump announced earlier this month will now be 15 percent. The increase in the tariff rates came after China announced plans to impose news tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. imports, which Trump called "politically motivated."

Trump said on Twitter that he is ordering U.S. companies to start looking for alternatives to doing business with China and has suggested he could declare a national emergency to force companies to change their businesses practices.

On the U.S. economic front, the Commerce Department released a report showing a continued spike in orders for transportation equipment contributed to a bigger than expected jump in durable goods orders in the month of July.

The report said durable goods orders surged up by 2.1 percent in July following a downwardly revised 1.8 percent increase in June. Economists had expected orders to climb by 1.1 percent compared to the 1.9 percent jump that had been reported for the previous month.

Excluding the spike in orders for transportation equipment, however, durable goods orders fell by 0.4 percent in July after rising by 0.8 percent in June. The pullback came as a surprise to economists, who had expected ex-transportation orders to inch up by 0.1 percent.

Further developments on the trade front may attract attention on Tuesday, with traders also likely to keep an eye on a report on consumer confidence in August.

The results of the Treasury Department's auction of $40 billion worth of two-year notes may also impact trading in the bond markets.


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Crude Oil Pares Early Gains, Settles Slightly Weak

Trading 26 août 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures failed to hold early gains and settled weak on Monday, extending losses to a fourth successive session.

Oil prices moved higher earlier in the day amid renewed optimism about resumption of trade talks between the U.S. and China.

However, speculation that oil supply from Iran could rise weighed on crude prices.

According to reports, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that preparations were on for a meeting between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and U.S. President Donald Trump in the coming weeks to find a solution to a nuclear standoff.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for October ended down $0.53, or about 1%, at $53.64 a barrel.

On Friday, WTI crude futures for October West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for October ended down $1.18, or about 2.1%, at $54.17 a barrel, after falling to a low of $53.26 a barrel.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the G-7 summit, U.S. President Donald Trump said that top Chinese officials had called asking for the resumption of trade talks.

"China called, last night, our top trade people, and said, 'Let's get back to the table.' So, we'll be getting back to the table. And I think they want to do something," Trump said.

"They've been hurt very badly, but they understand this is the right thing to do. And I have great respect for it. I have great respect for it. This is a very positive development for the world," he added.

However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said he was not aware of any call between U.S. and Chinese officials and Trump refused to provide details.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, who has been leading the talks with Washington, said China was willing to resolve the dispute through "calm" negotiations and opposed any increase in trade tensions.


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Gold Futures Settle Slightly Lower

Trading 26 août 2019 Commentaire »

Gold futures ended slightly lower on Monday as trade tensions between the U.S. and China eased a bit after Trump's positive comments about resumption of trade talks. The dollar's rebound contributed as well to the yellow metal's weakness.

Gold prices rose to a fresh six-year high early on in the session, as traders reacted to Trump's tweets on Friday and the decision to hike tariffs on about $550 billion worth of Chinese goods by 5%.

However, gold retreated after Trump told reporters at the G-7 summit in France that top Chinese officials had called asking for the resumption of trade talks.

"China called, last night, our top trade people, and said, 'Let's get back to the table.' So, we'll be getting back to the table. And I think they want to do something," Trump said.

"They've been hurt very badly, but they understand this is the right thing to do. And I have great respect for it. I have great respect for it. This is a very positive development for the world," he added.

However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said he was not aware of any call between U.S. and Chinese officials and Trump refused to provide details.

The dollar index advanced to 98.09, gaining nearly 0.5%.

Gold futures rose to $1,555.23, the best level since April 2013, but retreated as the day progressed to eventually settle at $1,537.20 with a small $0.40 loss.

On Friday, gold futures settled at over 6-year high, at $1,537.60, gaining $29.10, or 1.9%.

Silver futures for ended up $0.227 at $17.641 an ounce, while Copper futures for September settled at $2.5435 per pound, up $0.0135 from previous close.

In economic news, data released by the Commerce Department today showed durable goods orders surged up by 2.1% in July following a downwardly revised 1.8% increase in June. Economists had expected orders to climb by 1.1% compared to the 1.9% jump that had been reported for the previous month.

Excluding the spike in orders for transportation equipment, however, durable goods orders fell by 0.4% in July after rising by 0.8% in June. Economists had expected ex-transportation orders to inch up by 0.1%.


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August 26, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 26 août 2019 Commentaire »

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Back in June 24, the EURUSD looked overbought around 1.1400 facing a confluence of supply levels which generated significant bearish pressure over the pair.

Shortly after, In the period between 8 - 22 July, a sideway consolidation-range was established between 1.1200 - 1.1275 until a triple-top reversal pattern was demonstrated around the upper limit.

Then, Evident bearish momentum (bearish engulfing H4 candlestick) could bring the EURUSD below 1.1175.

This facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.1115 (Previous Weekly Low) then 1.1025 (the lower limit of the depicted recent bearish channel) where significant signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated.

Risky traders were advised to look for bullish breakout above 1.1050 as a bullish signal for Intraday BUY entry with bullish targets around (1.1115, 1.1175 and 1.1235). All of which were successfully reached.

Shortly-After in Mid-August, the EUR/USD has been trapped between 1.1235-1.1175 for a few trading sessions until bearish breakout below 1.1175 occurred on August 14.

Bearish breakout below 1.1175 promoted further bearish decline towards 1.1075 where the backside of the broken bearish channel has been providing significant bullish demand so far (A Bullish Triple-Bottom pattern is in progress).

Bullish persistence above 1.1115 is needed to confirm the short-term trend reversal into bullish.

This would enhance another bullish spike towards 1.1175 as an initial bullish target.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders are advised to have a valid BUY entry anywhere around 1.1090-1.1110 (newly-established demand-level).

Initial T/P levels should be located around 1.1150, 1.1175 and 1.1200.

S/L should be placed just below 1.1040.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

ECB Must Ensure Credibility Of Actions, Policymaker Says: Report

Trading 26 août 2019 Commentaire »

The European Central Bank must take care to ensure the credibility of its policy actions, Governing Council member Peter Kazimir reportedly said, as the bank apparently plans to unveil a stimulus package for the euro area economy in September.

"We need to take steps that are credible in the eyes of the market," Kazimir, who heads the Slovak central bank, told Bloomberg.

There must be broad unity and agreement among the rate-setters on the measures, the policymaker added.

He is inclined towards action in the September policy session, Kazimir said.

Meanwhile, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said over the weekend that he would be cautious regarding restarting asset purchases.


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August 26, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 26 août 2019 Commentaire »

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On July 5, a bearish consolidation range-breakout was demonstrated below 1.2550 (the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range).

Moreover, Bearish breakdown below 1.2385 (Prominent Bottom) facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.2320, 1.2270 and 1.2100 which corresponded to significant key-levels on the Weekly chart.

The previously-mentioned price levels were risky for having new SELL entries. That's why, Long-term SELLERS were advised to have their profits gathered.

In Early August, a temporary consolidation-range was established above 1.2100 before August 9 when temporary bearish movement was executed towards 1.2025.

Recent bullish recovery was demonstrated off the recent bottom (1.2025). This brought the GBP/USD pair back above 1.2100 (recently-established demand Level).

As expected, recent bullish movement was demonstrated towards 1.2230 where recent bearish rejection is currently manifested towards 1.2215-1.2200.

For the intermediate-term, Further bullish advancement is expected to pursue towards 1.2320 as long as the current bullish momentum above 1.2200 and 1.2160 (the recent consolidation range pivot point) is maintained on a daily basis.

On the other hand, any bearish breakout below 1.2160 invalidates the previous scenario allowing another bearish visit towards 1.2025.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders are advised to look for a valid bullish entry anywhere around 1.2215-1.2180.

Initial T/P level to be placed around 1.2250 and 1.2340 while S/L should be placed below 1.2160.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BTC 08.26.2019 – Broken bear flag in the downward trend, more downside yet to come

Trading 26 août 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin 4H time-frame:

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Bitcoin on the 4-hour chart completed bear flag and I do expect more downside to come. I think that the growth potential of BTC is now limited. The first reason is another growth of the US dollar in world currency markets. The trade war is still active and investors are in indecision about the dollar, which indicates limited upside for BTC. Secondly, many experts, analysts of the cryptocurrency segment again begin to give their forecasts regarding the value of the "cue ball" in six months or a year. This is what makes Bitcoin the most unattractive tool to save the value of money from all existing. I think that overall Bitcoin can go lower due to no big buyers on the market and due to much more attractive markets now like a Gold market.

Bitcoin Forecast and recommendations for traders:

Bitcoin is in overall consolidation phase but most recently I found bear flag below the downward slopping trendline, which is sign that there is chance for more downside and potential of $9,727 or $9,106. Thus, I recommend selling cryptocurrency with a target of $9,727, with a Stop Loss level of $10,700.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Jump Amid Continued Rebound In Aircraft Demand

Trading 26 août 2019 Commentaire »

Reflecting a continued spike in orders for transportation equipment, the Commerce Department released a report on Monday showing new orders for U.S. durable goods jumped much more than expected in the month of July.

The report said durable goods orders surged up by 2.1 percent in July following a downwardly revised 1.8 percent increase in June.

Economists had expected orders to climb by 1.1 percent compared to the 1.9 percent jump that had been reported for the previous month.

The much stronger than expected growth came as orders for transportation equipment spiked by 7.0 percent in July after surging up by 4.1 percent in June. Orders for transportation equipment plunged by 7.5 percent in May.

Orders for non-defense aircraft and parts and defense aircraft and parts soared by 47.8 percent and 34.4 percent, respectively.

Excluding the spike in orders for transportation equipment, however, durable goods orders fell by 0.4 percent in July after rising by 0.8 percent in June.

The pullback came as a surprise to economists, who had expected ex-transportation orders to inch up by 0.1 percent.

Notable decreases in orders for primary metals, fabricated metal products and machinery more than offset a jump in orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components.

Meanwhile, the report said orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, an indicator of business spending, rose by 0.4 percent in July after climbing by 0.9 percent in June.

Shipments in the same category, which is the source data for equipment investment in GDP, fell by 0.7 percent in July after coming in unchanged in June.

"The annual trend in core shipments cooled to its slowest pace since January 2017, indicating a subdued pace of real private business investment at the start of Q3," said a note from economists at Oxford Economics.

The economists added, "Looking ahead, the combination of tighter financial conditions, elevated trade uncertainty and deteriorating global growth will weigh on investment decisions in coming months, putting further downside risk to the already fragile business investment picture."


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Gold 08.26.2019 -Gold follows our expected path and there is still more space for upside

Trading 26 août 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price had a nice push higher and our second upward target from Friday was met at the price of $1,527. Anyway, I still expect more upside and at least another upward swing. Key support at the price of $1,525.00 held successfully, which is good positive sign for further upside continuation.

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Red horizontal line – Important resistance and upward objective

Yellow rectangle - major support area

Purple rising line – Expected path

MACD oscillator is showing good new momentum up in the background and I do expect at least another push higher. Key support is at $1,525 and resistance at $1,554. Bears need to be very cautious as there is strong upward momentum in the background and potential buying the deep type of feeling. As long as the Gold is holding above $1,525 there is a chance for potential test of $1,554..The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD for August 26,2019 – Good buy zone at 1.1110

Trading 26 août 2019 Commentaire »

EUR price did failed breakout of the defined trading range and massive breakout to the upside. Price is challenging recent cluster highs, which is strong support (buy load) area. We got high odds for new push higher.

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Red horizontal line – Important resistance and upward objective

Yellow rectangle - major support area

Middle Bollinger green line – 20SMA support

Silver rectangle – Failed breakout of support

Purple rising line – Expected path

MACD oscillator is showing good new momentum up in the background and I do expect at least another push higher. Key support is at 1.1105-1.1100 and resistance at 1.1164. Bears need to be very cautious as there is strong momentum in the background and potential buying the deep type of feeling. As long as the EUR is holding above 1.1100, there is a chance for potential test of 1.1164.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com