Dollar Exhibits Strength Against Rivals

Trading 19 août 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar gained against most major currencies on Monday amid hopes global central banks would step up stimulus to revive sagging economies and on positive comments by U.S. President Donald Trump about the U.S. economy.

Traders were looking ahead to the U.S. Federal Reserve's symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, scheduled to take place later this week.

The Fed chief Jerome Powell's speech at the symposium is expected to provide clues about the outlook for future interest rates.

The dollar index rose to a fresh two-week high of 98.39 in late afternoon trades, gaining nearly 0.3%.

Against the euro, the dollar strengthened to 1.1077 from 1.1120. The euro gained against most major currencies this morning with traders cheering news of Germany abandoning balanced budget rules to withstand the impact of an economic slowdown.

The Pound Sterling was weak against the dollar for much of the trading session. The currency moved past $1.2150 a little before noon, but retreated soon and was last seen moving around $1.2130, down 0.14% from previous close.

The dollar was up 0.25% against the yen, with a unit of greenback fetching 106.64 yen. In late trades on Friday, the yen was 106.37 a dollar.

Data released by the Ministry of Finance showed Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of 249.6 billion yen in July. That missed expectations for a shortfall of 194.5 billion yen following the 589.5 billion yen deficit in June.

Exports were down 1.6% on year, topping forecasts for a decline of 2.3% following the upwardly revised 6.6% drop in the previous month. Imports dipped an annual 1.2% versus forecasts for a decline of 2.3% following the 5.2% fall a month earlier.

The dollar gained more than 0.4% against the loonie with the Dollar-Loonie pair trading at 1.3328. Against Swiss franc, the dollar was up 0.35% at 0.9817 and against the Aussie, it strengthened by 0.21% to 0.6765.

The People's Bank of China said it would use market-based reform methods to help lower real lending rates and prop up a slowing economy.

The Yuan was down 0.11% against the greenback at 7.0507, falling from 7.0429 a dollar. The yuan hit a high of 7.0393 early on in the session.


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Treasuries Pull Back Further Off Their Recent Highs

Trading 19 août 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries showed a notable move to the downside during trading on Monday, extending the modest pullback seen in the previous session.

Bond prices came under pressure early in the session and remained firmly negative throughout the day. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 5.9 basis points to 1.598 percent.

The ten-year yield added to the 1 basis point gain posted last Friday, climbing further off its lowest closing level in three years.

The weakness among treasuries came amid continued optimism about new global after the People's Bank of China said it would use market-based reform methods to help lower real lending rates and prop up a slowing economy.

News that President Donald Trump's administration is once again delaying restrictions on Chinese tech giant Huawei also reduced the appeal of safe haven assets like bonds.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross revealed the news in an appearance on the Fox Business Network, announcing a "temporary general license" set to expire on Monday will be extended for another 90 days.

The move will allow Huawei to continue purchasing supplies from U.S. companies despite being placed on an economic blacklist back in May.

"There is another 90 days for the U.S. telecom companies, some of the rural companies are dependent on wild ways," Ross said. "So we're giving them a little more time to wean themselves off. But there are no specific licenses being granted for anything."

Additionally, Trump's economic advisers took to the Sunday talk shows to downplay concerns about a possible recession.

Trump himself told reporters that he does not foresee an economic downturn even after last week's yield curve inversion, which is widely seen as an early recession indicator.

"I don't think we're having a recession," Trump said. "We're doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich. I gave a tremendous tax cut and they're loaded up with money."

Trading activity may be somewhat subdued on Tuesday, as another light day on the U.S. economic front may keep some traders on the sidelines.


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Oil Futures End Sharply Higher

Trading 19 août 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures settled sharply higher on Monday after a drone attack sparked fire in a remote Saudi oil and gas field.

Oil's uptick was also due to renewed optimism about U.S.-China trade talks after U.S. President Donald Trump said that he discussed the impact of Washington's tariffs on Chinese goods with Apple chief Tim Cook.

On Sunday, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Fox News that if teleconferences between both sides' deputies pan out in the next 10 days, the U.S. and China can have a substantive renewal of negotiations.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for September ended up $1.33, or about 2.4%, at $56.14 a barrel.

On Friday, WTI crude oil futures ended up $0.40, or 0.7%, at $54.87 a barrel, after having plunge 2.1% a session earlier.

According to a report from the Saudi Press Agency, the drone attack by the Yemeni Houthis caused a fire at an oil and gas field in Saudi Arabia.

The media cited Saudi's energy minister Khalid al-Falih as saying that the damage caused by the explosive-laden drones was limited to a processing unit of the natural gas processing plant at the Shaybah field. It said the minister referred the event as a "terrorist attack".

Traders also look ahead to key manufacturing data due later this week from Europe and the United States as well as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium for further direction.


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Gold Settles Notably Lower As Investors Seek Riskier Assets

Trading 19 août 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices drifted lower on Monday as traders went for riskier assets after China announced interest rate reforms and on news that Germany is likely to run a fiscal deficit to counter a possible recession.

News that the Trump administration is once again delaying restrictions on Chinese tech giant Huawei contributed as well to the increased risk appetite in the market.

The dollar index rose to a two-week high, climbing to 98.33.

Gold futures for December ended down $12.00, or about 0.8%, at $1,511.60 an ounce.

On Friday, gold futures for December ended down $7.60, or about 0.5%, at $1,1523.60 an ounce.

Silver futures for September ended down $0.182, at $16.940 an ounce, while Copper futures for September settled at $2.6015 per pound, gaining $0.0065.

Stock markets were also supported by Trump's positive comments about the U.S. economy. Trump told reporters that he does not foresee an economic downturn even after last week's yield curve inversion, which is widely seen as an early recession indicator.

"I don't think we're having a recession," Trump said. "We're doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich. I gave a tremendous tax cut and they're loaded up with money."

The People's Bank of China said it would use market-based reform methods to help lower real lending rates and prop up a slowing economy.


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August 19, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 19 août 2019 Commentaire »

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Since May 17, the previous downside movement within the depicted bearish channel came to a pause allowing the recent sideway consolidation range to be established between 1.2750 - 1.2550.

On July 5, a bearish range breakout was demonstrated below 1.2550 (the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range).

Hence, quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price zone of 1.2430-1.2385 (the lower limit of the movement channel) which failed to provide consistent bullish demand for the GBP/USD.

Moreover, Bearish breakdown below 1.2350 facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.2320, 1.2270 and 1.2100 which correspond to significant key-levels on the Weekly chart.

The current price levels are quite risky/low for having new SELL entries. That's why, Previous SELLERS were advised to have their profits gathered.

Two weeks ago, temporary signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated around 1.2100 before Friday when another bearish movement could be demonstrated towards 1.2025.

Recent bullish recovery was demonstrated off the recent bottom (1.2025) bringing the GBP/USD pair back towards 1.2100 (recently-established SUPPLY Level).

This is supposed to enhance further bullish advancement towards 1.2230 then 1.2320 if the current bullish momentum above 1.2100 is maintained on daily basis.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders were advised to look for early bullish breakout above 1.2100 then above 1.2230 for counter-trend BUY entries.

Conservative traders should wait for bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.2320 - 1.2350 for new valid SELL entries.

S/L should be placed above 1.2430. Initial T/P level to be placed around 1.2279 and 1.2130.

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August 19, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 19 août 2019 Commentaire »

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Back in June 24, the EURUSD looked overbought around 1.1400 facing a confluence of supply levels.

In the period between 8 - 22 July, sideway consolidation-range was established between 1.1200 - 1.1275 until a triple-top reversal pattern was demonstrated around the upper limit.

Shortly after, evident bearish momentum (bearish engulfing H4 candlestick) could bring the EURUSD back below 1.1175.

This facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.1115 (Previous Weekly Low) where temporary bullish rejection was demonstrated before bearish breakdown could take place on July 31.

On July 31, Temporary Bearish breakdown below 1.1115 allowed further bearish decline towards 1.1025 (lower limit of the depicted recent bearish channel) where significant signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated.

Risky traders were advised to look for bullish persistence above 1.1050 as a bullish signal for Intraday BUY entry with bullish target projected towards 1.1115, 1.1175 and 1.1235.

Two weeks ago, the depicted Key-Zone around 1.1235 has been standing as a prominent Supply Area where THREE Bearish Engulfing H4 candlesticks were demonstrated.

Thus, the EUR/USD was trapped between 1.1235-1.1175 for a few trading sessions until bearish breakout below 1.1175 occurred on August 14.

Bearish breakout below 1.1175 promoted further bearish decline towards 1.1075 where the backside of the broken bearish channel was located.

Around 1.1075, significant bullish recovery signs were manifested on the chart (Bullish Engulfing H4 candlestick).

A quick bullish breakout above 1.1115 is needed to confirm the short-term trend reversal into bullish. This would enhance further bullish advancement towards 1.1175.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders can have a valid BUY entry anywhere around 1.1070 (where the backside of the broken bearish channel is located).

S/L should be placed just below 1.1020 while initial T/P levels should be located around 1.1130, 1.1175 and 1.1200.

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Bundesbank: German Economic Activity Could Decline Slightly In Q3

Trading 19 août 2019 Commentaire »

The German economy could shrink further in the third quarter as the slowdown in the industry continues and this is set to gradually affect some parts of the service sector, the Bundesbank said in its monthly report, released Monday.

Official estimates revealed last week that the biggest euro area economy contracted 0.1 percent in the second quarter, almost entirely reversing first quarter's 0.4 percent expansion. The economy shrank due to the sustained slowdown in industry, and as weaker global growth and trade wars dampened foreign demand for German goods.

Two consecutive quarters of economic contraction translates to a technical recession.

Describing the recent decline in economic activity as a slowdown in the economy, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said, "The domestic economy is still doing well, with the weakness so far concentrated on industry and exports."

"Important reasons are the international trade conflicts and Brexit."

Labor market leading indicators are giving a mixed picture as manufacturers are further scaling down their hiring plans, the central bank said.

Meanwhile, construction and service sector firms, except those in the trade industry, are having positive employment plans, the report noted.

The latest Purchasing Managers' survey showed that the German private sector expanded at its slowest rate in over six years in July amid a deepening downturn in manufacturing and slowing service sector growth.


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BTC 08.19.2019 – Double bottom formation confirmed

Trading 19 août 2019 Commentaire »

Industry news:

The average crypto market sentiment measure, Sentscore, for the top 10 coins dropped further this Monday to 4.37, below last week's 4.76 and even below 4.43 from three weeks ago, according to Omenics, a crypto market sentiment analysis service. However, the sentiment improved sharply in the past 24 hours.

Daily view:

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Based on the daily time-frame, I found successful rejection of the key support at the price of $9,185 (my Friday's target), which is good indication for more upside. Stochastic oscillator got fresh bull cross and this is just another confirmation for the further upside and potential test of $11,270.

4H time-frame view:

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Based on the 4H time-frame, I found double bottom formation and strong reversal bar in the background, which is strong sign that upward momentum is present. MACD entered into positive territory.

Trading recommendation:

According to current market condition, my advice is to watch for buying opportunities on the pullbacks with the first target at $11,270.

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Analysis for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 19th. The euro miraculously holds its position after the report on inflation in

Trading 19 août 2019 Commentaire »

EUR/USD

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On Friday, August 16, the EUR/USD pair declined by 20 basis points. Thus, the estimated wave b continues its formation and threatens to go beyond the minimum of wave c. If that happens, then the wave pattern will require adjustments, and the downward trend can be very complicated. On Monday, August 19, is held in quiet trading, although they had every chance to be restless and negative for the euro. The only but very important report of the day – inflation in the eurozone – was significantly worse than the expectations of the foreign exchange market. Inflation slowed to 1.0% y/y in the European Union and lost 0.5% monthly. The core consumer price index fell to 0.9% y/y and lost 0.6% monthly. Thus, this would be enough for the bears to start putting pressure on the euro/dollar pair again. However, this did not happen, perhaps because wave b still needs to be completed. In general, as long as the instrument does not go beyond the minimum of the wave c, there are good chances of building a third wave of the upward trend with targets located above the mark of 1.1250. Before the ECB lowers the rate, the pair needs to build a wave up.

Purchasing goals:

1.1264 – 61.8% Fibonacci

1.1322 – 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.1027 – 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair continues building the upward trend channel. Given the proximity to the minimum of the wave c, now is a good time to buy a tool based on the construction of the wave c with targets located above 1.1250. I recommend placing restrictive orders under the minimum of August 1.

GBP/USD

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On August 15, the GBP/USD pair gained about 50 base points and continues a sluggish retreat from the previously achieved lows. At the moment, the fifth wave is still considered as completed, but the news background is still not on the side of the pound. However, in early September, when the Parliament will come out of holidays and start working sessions, there may be events that will not only affect the course of the instrument but also change the mood in the market for several months. In recent months, the pound has been falling non-stop, because the market expects disordered Brexit and there was not a single hint that Boris Johnson will find a way to negotiate with the EU and avoid a tough scenario. Now, a vote of no confidence can be announced to Boris Johnson, and he can resign. And in this case, the probability of a hard Brexit will significantly decrease, and the British pound may become enthusiastic and rush up due to this news, as it is greatly oversold, and the bears will begin to close sales.

Sales targets:

1.2056 – 323.6% Fibonacci

1.1830 – 423.6% Fibonacci

Purchasing goals:

1.2334 – 200.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The downward part of the trend may become even more complicated. Although the wave e appears to be complete, it may take a more complicated form. Thus, on the break of the minimum of August 12, I recommend considering the pair's sales with targets near the level of 1.1830, which corresponds to 423.6% of Fibonacci. There are certain chances for the pound to grow now, the main thing is that the news background does not cause new sales until early September.

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GBP/USD 08.19.2019 -Potential test of the 20SMA on daily time-frame

Trading 19 août 2019 Commentaire »

Daily view:

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Based on the daily time-frame, I found that Gold is trading in consolidation mode and that there is potential for the testing of 20SMA around $1,475-$1,480. So, more potential downside and then I still expect more upside, probably tomorrow.

4H time-frame view:

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Based on the 4H time-frame, I found breakout of the support at the price of $1,503, which is sign of the intraday selling pressure.ADX reading is above 35, which is clear sign for the potential more downside before potential new wave up.

Trading recommendation:

According to current market condition, my advice is to watch for selling opportunities due to underlying intraday downward trend. Downward targets are set at the price of $1,475-$1,480. Resistance level is set at the price of $1,405.

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