U.S. Dollar Shows Moderate Move The Upside

Trading 14 août 2019 Commentaire »

The value of the U.S. dollar fluctuated early on Wednesday before showing a moderate move to the upside in the afternoon.

The U.S. dollar is trading at 106 yen compared to the 106.74 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Tuesday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.1134 compared to yesterday's $1.1171.

The greenback may have benefited from its appeal as a safe haven as a disappointing batch of Chinese economic data raised concerns about the global economic outlook.

The data included reports from the National Bureau of Statistics showing Chinese industrial production and retail sales growth fell short of economist estimates in July.

With traders subsequently moving their money into U.S. treasuries, the ten-year yield dipped below the two-year yield, which is widely seen as an indicator of a recession.

The inversion sparked a noteworthy sell-off on Wall Street, which further increased the appeal of safe havens such as the dollar, bonds and gold.

Traders will be given a clearer picture of the strength of the U.S. economy with the release of an avalanche of economic data on Thursday.

Reports on weekly jobless claims, retail sales, and industrial production are likely to be in the spotlight, although data on regional manufacturing activity, labor productivity and costs, and homebuilder confidence may also attract attention.

The Labor Department released a report this morning showing import prices in the U.S. unexpectedly saw a modest increase in the month of July.

Import prices rose by 0.2 percent in July after plunging by a revised 1.1 percent in June, while economists had expected import prices to come in unchanged.

The report also showed an unexpected uptick in export prices, which crept up by 0.2 percent in July after falling by a revised 0.6 percent in June. Export prices had also been expected to come in unchanged.


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Crude Oil Prices Tumble On Demand Outlook, Rising Stockpiles

Trading 14 août 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices plummeted on Wednesday on increasing worries about the outlook for global demand and a supply glut.

The health of the global economy was foremost on investors' minds following news from the United States that the yield on the benchmark ten-year note dropped below the yield on the two-year note earlier this morning - which is widely seen as an indicator of a recession.

Disappointing economic data from Germany and China added to the negative sentiment.

In addition, U.S. government data showed that crude oil inventories rose by 1.6 million barrels last week, fueling fears of a supply glut.

West Texas Intermediate tumbled $1.71 or 3.01 percent to $55.02 per barrel.


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Treasuries Show Strong Move To The Upside On Economic Worries

Trading 14 août 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries showed a strong move to the upside during trading on Wednesday, more than offsetting the pullback seen in the previous session.

Bond prices moved significantly higher early in the session and remained firmly positive throughout the day. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, slid by 9.9 basis points to 1.581 percent.

With the substantial decrease on the day, the ten-year yield ended the session at its lowest closing level in nearly three years.

Treasuries benefited from the appeal as a safe haven as a disappointing batch of Chinese economic data raised concerns about the global economic outlook.

The data included reports from the National Bureau of Statistics showing Chinese industrial production and retail sales growth fell short of economist estimates in July.

The ten-year yield subsequently dipped below the two-year yield, which is widely seen as an indicator of a recession.

The inversion sparked a noteworthy sell-off on Wall Street, which further increased the appeal of safe havens such as bonds and gold.

Traders will be given a clearer picture of the strength of the U.S. economy with the release of an avalanche of economic data on Thursday.

Reports on weekly jobless claims, retail sales, and industrial production are likely to be in the spotlight, although data on regional manufacturing activity, labor productivity and costs, and homebuilder confidence may also attract attention.

The Labor Department released a report this morning showing import prices in the U.S. unexpectedly saw a modest increase in the month of July.

Import prices rose by 0.2 percent in July after plunging by a revised 1.1 percent in June, while economists had expected import prices to come in unchanged.

The report also showed an unexpected uptick in export prices, which crept up by 0.2 percent in July after falling by a revised 0.6 percent in June. Export prices had also been expected to come in unchanged.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Rises As Investors Flock Back To Safe Havens

Trading 14 août 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices jumped on Wednesday as traders moved back to safe havens thanks to worrying signs about the health of the global economy.

Concerns about a potential global recession deepened on news from the United States that the yield on the benchmark ten-year note dropped below the yield on the two-year note earlier this morning - which is widely seen as an indicator of a recession.

Spot gold was up $16.90 or 1.13 percent at $1,517.80 per ounce after peaking at $1,520.24 earlier in the day. Gold futures climbed $14.85 or 0.98 percent to $1,528.95.

It had held steady at $1,501.64 per ounce earlier in the day after disappointing economic data from Germany and China.

The precious metal had reached a six-year high Tuesday on concerns over the trade dispute between the United States and China, although gold prices fell after the U.S. announced a delay in the imposition of additional tariffs on China.


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The Dollar index remains in bullish trend but still unable to recapture the 98 level.

Trading 14 août 2019 Commentaire »

The Dollar index is making higher highs and higher lows on a monthly basis. Price has retraced 61.8% of the 103.77 to 88.22 decline. Bulls have made several attempts to break and capture the 98 level but each time price has reversed.

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Green rectangle - resistance area

The weekly chart above with the Ichimoku indicator tells us that same thing. Although price has managed to move briefly above 98, the weekly result was to get rejected. In Ichimoku cloud terms price is in a bullish trend as price is above the Kumo. Price is also above both the tenkan and the kijun -sen indicators. These indicators are now at 97 which is key support. Breaking below 97 could lead to a test of the upper cloud boundary at 95.70-96. For now trend remains bullish with no sign of reversal. Another rejection and reversal from the 97.70-98 area would be a bearish sign.

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EURUSD bullish pennant pattern canceled.

Trading 14 août 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD has broken below 1.1165 and has canceled our bullish pattern. This means now that we are looking either at a reversal from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level or the continuation of the down trend targeting 1.10 and lower.

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Red lines - bearish channel

EURUSD is at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last upward leg. Short-term trend is bearish again and as long as price is below 1.12-1.1230 we do not turn bullish. Support by Fibonacci is at 1.1111 and if bulls fail to hold above it, then we the chances for a move towards 1.10 and lower increase dramatically. If support holds and prices bounce, then we could see the second leg higher we expect towards 1.13-1.1350. For now bears are in control of the short and medium-term trend. The RSI is trading inside a bearish channel and as long as we do not see an upward break out we remain pessimistic.

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Gold recaptures important price levels for continuation of up trend

Trading 14 août 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price is above $1,510 again after shaking both bulls and bears yesterday with a volatile trading day first reaching $1,535, then plummeting to $1,480 and closing at $1,501. As we said in our last post it is key for bulls to recapture $1,510 if they want to see price heading towards $1,550.

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Blue rectangle - support (previous resistance)

Green rectangle - key support

Gold price has broken above the $1,510 level we pointed out as key yesterday after the fake break out. Gold bulls are in control as risk off in equity markets supports Gold despite strengthening Dollar. Trend remains bullish. Holding above $1,510 is key for the short-term trend. Key support for the bigger trend is at $1,494-90. Breaking below this level will open the way for a move lower towards $1,450 at least.

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Czech GDP Growth Slows Less Than Expected

Trading 14 août 2019 Commentaire »

The Czech Republic's economic growth slowed less-than-expected in the second quarter, preliminary estimates from the Czech Statistical Office showed on Wednesday.

Gross domestic product grew a seasonally-adjusted 2.7 percent year-on-year in the second quarter following a 2.8 percent expansion in the first three months of the year.

Economists had forecast 2.6 percent growth.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.6 percent in the second quarter, same as in the previous three months. Economists had forecast 0.5 percent growth.

Second quarter growth was largely led by consumption, mainly household spending, and external demand, the agency said. Meanwhile, investment growth slowed.


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August 14, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 14 août 2019 Commentaire »

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Back in June 24, the EURUSD looked overbought around 1.1400 facing a confluence of supply levels.

Thus, a bearish movement was initiated towards 1.1275 followed by a deeper bearish decline towards 1.1235 (the lower limit of the previous bullish channel) which failed to provide enough bullish support for the EUR/USD pair.

In the period between 8 - 22 July, sideway consolidation-range was established between 1.1200 - 1.1275 until a triple-top reversal pattern was demonstrated around the upper limit.

Shortly after, evident bearish momentum (bearish engulfing H4 candlestick) could bring the EURUSD back below 1.1235.

Early bearish breakdown below 1.1175 facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.1115 (Previous Weekly Low) where temporary bullish rejection was demonstrated before bearish breakdown could take place on July 31.

On July 31, Temporary Bearish breakdown below 1.1115 allowed further bearish decline towards 1.1025 (lower limit of the depicted recent bearish channel) where significant signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated.

Risky traders were advised to look for bullish persistence above 1.1050 as a bullish signal for Intraday BUY entry with bullish target projected towards 1.1115, 1.1175 and 1.1235.

During the past week, the depicted Key-Zone around 1.1235 has been standing as a prominent Supply Area where TWO Bearish Engulfing H4 candlesticks were demonstrated.

Earlier this week, another bullish visit was demonstrated towards 1.1235 where another episode of bearish rejection was anticipated.

Thus, the EUR/USD was trapped between 1.1235-1.1175 for a few trading sessions until bearish breakout occurred earlier Today.

Bearish breakdown below 1.1175 is mandatory to allow further bearish decline towards 1.1125-1.1115 where another intermediate-term bullish position can be offered (The right shoulder of the expected reversal pattern).

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for a deeper bearish pullback towards 1.1125-1.1115 for a valid BUY entry (where the right shoulder of the reversal pattern is expected to be located).

S/L should be placed just below 1.1080 while initial T/P levels should be located around 1.1160 and 1.1200.

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Portugal GDP Growth Stable In Q2

Trading 14 août 2019 Commentaire »

Portugal's economic growth retained its momentum in the second quarter, as weaker domestic demand was offset by a rebound in external demand, flash estimates from Statistics Portugal revealed on Wednesday.

Gross domestic product grew 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, same as in the previous three months.

On a year-on-year basis, GDP growth was 1.8 percent, same as in the previous quarter.

The contribution of domestic demand to the year-on-year GDP rate of change decreased, reflecting the deceleration of final consumption expenditure and, in larger extent, of Investment, the agency said.

In contrast, net external demand's contribution was less negative than in the last quarter, as imports slowed more than exports.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, GDP rose 0.4 percent quarterly and 1.7 percent from a year ago.


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