Gold bulls were warned for possibility of fake break out

Trading 13 août 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price broke the bullish flag pattern but as we explained in our last analysis, there were many warning signs that made us expect a move to $1,535 to be enough and that a possibility of fake break out was high. This is exactly what we got.

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Blue rectangle - resistance

Gold price reached our $1,535 target. Gold price sharply reversed and fell towards $1,480. Resistance is at $1,510. The break out above $1,510 was most probably a fake one and price is most probably going to move lower. As long as price is below $1,510-20 area I expect to see more selling pressures. Failure to hold above recent low at $1,480 will confirm our bearish view on Gold. Bulls were warned to be cautious. Recapturing $1,510 is important for bulls if they want to continue their up trend towards $1,550.

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U.S. Dollar Jumps On Delay In Tariffs On Certain Chinese Products

Trading 13 août 2019 Commentaire »

With traders reacting to the latest news on the trade front, the value of the U.S. dollar has shown a significant move to the upside during trading on Tuesday.

Currently, the greenback is trading at 106.67 yen compared to the 105.30 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Monday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.1172 compared to yesterday's $1.1214.

The jump in the value of the dollar came after U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer offered a temporary reprieve from concerns about the U.S.-China trade war by announcing a delay in imposing new tariffs on certain Chinese products.

Lighthizer said the 10 percent tariff set to take effect on September 1st should be delayed until December 15th for certain products.

The products benefiting from the delay include cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing.

Additionally, the USTR announced certain unidentified products will be removed from the tariff list entirely based on health, safety, national security and other factors.

Lighthizer said the delay is part of the USTR's public comment and hearing process and noted it intends to conduct an exclusion process for products subject to the additional tariffs.

The announcement comes less than two weeks after President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 10 percent tariff on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports.

Trump told reporters the delay comes amid concerns the tariffs could impact U.S. customers during the holiday shopping season even though he has repeatedly claimed the trade dispute has not hurt Americans.

In U.S. economic news, the Labor Department released a report showing consumer prices rose in line with economist estimates in the month of July, although the report also showed another bigger than expected increase in core consumer prices.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index climbed by 0.3 percent in July after inching up by 0.1 percent in both May and June. Economists had expected prices to rise by 0.3 percent.

Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices also rose by 0.3 percent for the second consecutive month, while economists had expected a 0.2 percent uptick.

Andrew Hunter, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said the bigger than expected increase in core prices "suggests that underlying inflationary pressures may not be as subdued as is widely assumed."

"Provided that the incoming activity data continue to deteriorate, however, the Fed still looks likely to cut interest rates again next month," Hunter said.

The report showed the annual rate growth in both consumer prices and core consumer prices accelerated to 1.8 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.


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Treasuries Give Back Ground In Reaction To Tariff Delay

Trading 13 août 2019 Commentaire »

After moving sharply higher over the course of the previous session, treasuries gave back some ground during trading on Tuesday.

Bond prices climbed off their worst levels after an early move to the downside but remained in negative territory. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 4.1 basis points to 1.680 percent.

The increase by the ten-year yield came after it ended the previous session at its lowest closing level in almost three years.

Treasuries came under pressure early in the session after U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer offered a temporary reprieve from concerns about the U.S.-China trade war by announcing a delay in imposing new tariffs on certain Chinese products.

Lighthizer said the 10 percent tariff set to take effect on September 1st should be delayed until December 15th for certain products.

The products benefiting from the delay include cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing.

Additionally, the USTR announced certain unidentified products will be removed from the tariff list entirely based on health, safety, national security and other factors.

Lighthizer said the delay is part of the USTR's public comment and hearing process and noted it intends to conduct an exclusion process for products subject to the additional tariffs.

The announcement comes less than two weeks after Trump announced plans to impose a 10 percent tariff on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports, sparking a rally by bonds.

Trump told reporters the delay comes amid concerns the tariffs could impact U.S. customers during the holiday shopping season even though he has repeatedly claimed the trade dispute has not hurt Americans.

In U.S. economic news, the Labor Department released a report showing consumer prices rose in line with economist estimates in the month of July, although the report also showed another bigger than expected increase in core consumer prices.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index climbed by 0.3 percent in July after inching up by 0.1 percent in both May and June. Economists had expected prices to rise by 0.3 percent.

Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices also rose by 0.3 percent for the second consecutive month, while economists had expected a 0.2 percent uptick.

Andrew Hunter, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said the bigger than expected increase in core prices "suggests that underlying inflationary pressures may not be as subdued as is widely assumed."

"Provided that the incoming activity data continue to deteriorate, however, the Fed still looks likely to cut interest rates again next month," Hunter said.

The report showed the annual rate growth in both consumer prices and core consumer prices accelerated to 1.8 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.

A report on U.S. import and export prices may attract attention on Wednesday as traders await an avalanche of economic data on Thursday.


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Crude Oil Prices Rebound From Early Selling

Trading 13 août 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices shook off early weakness and posted a modest recovery on Tuesday after U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced a delay in imposing new tariffs on certain Chinese products.

The announcement comes less than two weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 10 percent tariff on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports, sparking a global desire for safe havens.

West Texas Intermediate climbed $2.42 or 4.42 percent to $57.20 after the trade announcement after moving as low as $54.78 earlier in the day.

The early downward pressure was the result of fears that the deepening U.S.-China trade war would overshadow fresh efforts by OPEC and its non-OPEC partners to curb supply.

Saudi Arabia, the de-facto leader of the OPEC, said late last week it is taking steps to keep its crude oil exports below 7 million barrels per day in August and September.


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Gold Slides As Risk Appetite Picks Up Ground

Trading 13 août 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices ebbed on Tuesday as investors took the opportunity to move away from safe havens after U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced a delay in imposing new tariffs on certain Chinese products.

The announcement comes less than two weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 10 percent tariff on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports, sparking a global stock market sell-off and a worldwide desire for safe havens.

Spot gold was down $10.10 or 0.67 percent at $1,500.40, while gold futures sank $5.15 or 0.34 percent to 1,512.15.

The precious metal had reached a six-year high earlier in the day on fears of a drawn-out global trade war, protests in Hong Kong, political uncertainty in Italy and Argentina and a crash in the peso.

Spot gold jumped 1.4 percent to $1,531.92 an ounce while U.S. gold futures were up as much as 1.7 percent at $1,542.70 an ounce.


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August 13, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 13 août 2019 Commentaire »

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Since May 17, the previous downside movement within the depicted bearish channel came to a pause allowing the recent sideway consolidation range to be established between 1.2750 - 1.2550.

On July 5, a bearish range breakout was demonstrated below 1.2550 (the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range).

Hence, quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price zone of 1.2430-1.2385 (the lower limit of the movement channel) which failed to provide consistent bullish demand for the GBP/USD.

Moreover, Bearish breakdown below 1.2350 facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.2320, 1.2270 and 1.2100 which correspond to significant key-levels on the Weekly chart.

The current price levels are quite risky/low for having new SELL entries. That's why, Previous SELLERS were advised to have their profits gathered.

Last week, temporary signs of bullish recovery were being demonstrated around 1.2100 before Friday when another bearish movement could be demonstrated towards 1.2025.

Recent bullish recovery was demonstrated off the recent bottom (1.2025) bringing the GBP/USD pair back towards 1.2100 (recently-established SUPPLY Level).

This is supposed to enhance further bullish advancement towards 1.2230 then 1.2320 if sufficient bullish momentum is demonstrated above 1.2100.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders are advised to look for early bullish breakout above 1.2100 then above 1.2230 for counter-trend BUY entries.

Conservative traders should wait for bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.2320 - 1.2350 for new valid SELL entries.

S/L should be placed above 1.2430. Initial T/P level to be placed around 1.2279 and 1.2130.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. To Delay Imposing Tariffs On Certain Chinese Products

Trading 13 août 2019 Commentaire »

With President Donald Trump's escalating trade war with China raising concerns about the global economic outlook, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer offered a temporary reprieve on Tuesday by announcing a delay in imposing new tariffs on certain Chinese products.

Lighthizer said the 10 percent tariff set to take effect on September 1st should be delayed until December 15th for certain products.

The products benefiting from the delay include cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing.

Additionally, the USTR announced certain unidentified products will be removed from the tariff list entirely based on health, safety, national security and other factors.

Lighthizer said the delay is part of the USTR's public comment and hearing process and noted it intends to conduct an exclusion process for products subject to the additional tariffs.

The USTR said it will publish additional details and lists of the tariff lines affected by this announcement on its website later today.

The announcement comes less than two weeks after Trump announced plans to impose a 10 percent tariff on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports, sparking a sell-off on Wall Street.

Trump recently indicated he feels no sense of urgency to resolve the trade dispute with China, suggesting the U.S. could skip the next round of trade talks in September.

"We'll see whether or not we keep our meeting in September. If we do, that's fine. If we don't, that's fine," Trump told reporters last Friday. "But it's time that somebody does what we're doing."

Trump denied that Americans are paying the price for his trade war with China, arguing that Beijing's efforts to depress their currency prove that the Chinese are "paying for it."

"I want them to do well. But as of this moment, they're having the worst year that they've had in many, many years - in decades," he added. "And really, we're just bringing the system back into order."

The president also commented on the trade war with China in a post on Twitter this morning ahead of the announcement by the USTR.

"Through massive devaluation of their currency and pumping vast sums of money into their system, the tens of billions of dollars that the U.S. is receiving is a gift from China," Trump tweeted. "Prices not up, no inflation. Farmers getting more than China would be spending. Fake News won't report!"

He later added, "As usual, China said they were going to be buying 'big' from our great American Farmers. So far they have not done what they said. Maybe this will be different!"


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August 13, 2019 : Expectations of a bearish breakout below 1.1175 for the EUR/USD pair.

Trading 13 août 2019 Commentaire »

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Back in June 24, the EURUSD looked overbought around 1.1400 facing a confluence of supply levels.

Thus, a bearish movement was initiated towards 1.1275 followed by a deeper bearish decline towards 1.1235 (the lower limit of the previous bullish channel) which failed to provide enough bullish support for the EUR/USD pair.

In the period between 8 - 22 July, sideway consolidation-range was established between 1.1200 - 1.1275 until a triple-top reversal pattern was demonstrated around the upper limit.

Shortly after, evident bearish momentum (bearish engulfing H4 candlestick) could bring the EURUSD back below 1.1235.

Early bearish breakdown below 1.1175 facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.1115 (Previous Weekly Low) where temporary bullish rejection was demonstrated before bearish breakdown could take place on July 31.

On July 31, Temporary Bearish breakdown below 1.1115 allowed further bearish decline towards 1.1025 (lower limit of the depicted recent bearish channel) where significant signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated.

Risky traders were advised to look for bullish persistence above 1.1050 as a bullish signal for Intraday BUY entry with bullish target projected towards 1.1115, 1.1175 and 1.1235.

It's already running in profits. S/L should be advanced to 1.1160 to secure existing profits.

During the past week, the depicted Key-Zone around 1.1235 has been standing as a prominent Supply Area where TWO Bearish Engulfing H4 candlesticks were demonstrated.

Earlier Yesterday, another bullish visit was demonstrated towards 1.1235 where another episode of bearish rejection was anticipated.

Thus, the EUR/USD remains trapped between 1.1235-1.1175 until breakout occurs in either directions (probably to the downside).

Bearish breakdown below 1.1175 is mandatory to allow further bearish decline towards 1.1125-1.1115 where another intermediate-term bullish position can be offered (The right shoulder of the expected reversal pattern).

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for a deeper bearish pullback towards 1.1125-1.1115 for a valid BUY entry (where the right shoulder of the reversal pattern is expected to be located).

S/L should be placed just below 1.1080 while initial T/P levels should be located around 1.1160 and 1.1200.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

German Investor Confidence Plummets To 7-1/2-year Low On Weaker Growth Outlook

Trading 13 août 2019 Commentaire »

Germany's investor confidence dropped sharply in August to its lowest level since the end of 2011, adding fuel to fears of a recession in the biggest euro area economy.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany tumbled to -44.1 from -24.5 in July, reaching its lowest level since December 2011, survey data from the ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research showed Tuesday.

Economists had forecast a score of -28. The long-term average of the indicator is 21.6 points.

The current conditions index of the survey fell to -13.5 from -1.1 in the previous month. The score was the lowest since May 2010. Economists had expected a reading of -5.9.

"The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment points to a significant deterioration in the outlook for the German economy," ZEW President Achim Wambach said.

The most recent escalation in the trade dispute between the US and China, the risk of competitive devaluations, and the increased likelihood of a no-deal Brexit place additional pressure on the already weak economic growth, he noted.

"This will most likely put a further strain on the development of German exports and industrial production," Wambach added.

The investor confidence index for Eurozone dropped to -43.6 from -20.3 in July. The current situation measure shed 3.9 points to -14.5.

The results are based on the ZEW Financial Market Test, conducted monthly among up to 300 experts from banks, insurance companies and financial departments of selected corporations.

The outlook for the German economy turned grimmer this year as escalating trade tensions hurt demand for its exports, a strong contributor to economic growth.

Further, the manufacturing sector, another crucial contributor to growth, is yet to fully rebound from a slowdown that started last year, mainly due to the sluggishness in the automobile sector.

Latest data showed that the labor market has started to show signs of being hurt by the economic slowdown that is fueled mainly by external factors, and the weaker momentum is reflecting in household spending, suggesting that the German domestic resilience is weakening.

The Federal Statistical Office is set to release the second quarter gross domestic product figures on Wednesday that are expected to reveal a 0.1 percent quarterly contraction.

In the first quarter, the German economy grew 0.4 percent quarterly, which was the first such increase in three quarters.

The Bundesbank, which predicted an economic contraction for the second quarter, downgraded its growth outlook for this year to 0.6 percent from 1.6 percent and that for next year to 1.2 percent from 1.6 percent.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Canadian Dollar Falls As Oil Prices Drop

Trading 13 août 2019 Commentaire »

The Canadian dollar declined against its key counterparts in the European session on Tuesday amid falling oil prices, as worries about demand growth amid a deepening U.S.-China trade war offset fresh efforts by OPEC and its non-OPEC partners to curb supply.

Crude for September delivery fell $0.41 to $54.51 per barrel.

Singapore's government cut its forecast for economic growth this year to almost zero against a challenging external macroeconomic backdrop and the deepening downturn in the global electronics cycle.

As the U.S.-China trade row escalates, investors await to see whether OPEC will significantly slash production in the coming year to counter sliding demand.

Saudi Arabia, the de-facto leader of the OPEC, said late last week it is taking steps to keep its crude oil exports below 7 million barrels per day in August and September.

The loonie traded mixed against its major counterparts in the Asian session. While it rose against the euro and the yen, it held steady against the greenback. Against the aussie, it trended lower.

The loonie fell to a 6-day low of 79.14 versus the yen, from a high of 79.73 hit at 10:45 pm ET. The loonie is seen finding support around the 77.00 level.

Data from the Bank of Japan showed that Japan producer prices were flat on month in July, following the 0.5 percent drop in June.

On a yearly basis, producer prices sank 0.6 percent after easing 0.1 percent in the previous month.

The loonie depreciated to a 5-day low of 1.3289 against the greenback from Monday's closing value of 1.3238. The next possible support for the loonie is seen around the 1.35 level.

Data from the Labor Department showed that U.S. consumer prices rose in line with economist estimates in the month of July.

The consumer price index climbed by 0.3 percent in July after inching up by 0.1 percent in both May and June. Economists had expected prices to rise by 0.3 percent.

The loonie slipped to a 5-day low of 1.4914 against the euro, compared to Monday's closing quote of 1.4844. The loonie is poised to find support around the 1.50 region.

Survey data from the ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research showed that Germany's investor confidence dropped sharply in August to its lowest level since the end of 2011.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany tumbled to -44.1 from -24.5 in July, reaching its lowest level since December 2011.

Extending early decline, the loonie slid to a 4-day low of 0.8983 against the aussie. The loonie is likely to find support around the 0.93 level, if it falls further.


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