Oil Futures Recover After Weak Start, Settle Notably Higher

Trading 12 août 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices edged higher on Monday amid speculation production cuts by OPEC and lower shipments from Saudi Arabia will outweigh concerns about near term energy demand outlook.

It was not a positive start, however, for oil futures this morning, as prices dropped on concerns that a prolonged U.S.-China trade war could weigh on global growth and result in weak energy demand.

A downward revision in U.S. growth forecast by Goldman Sachs contributed as well to oil's weak start.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for September ended up $0.43, or about 0.8%, at $54.93 a barrel.

On Friday, West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for September ended up $1.96, or about 3.7%, at $54.50 a barrel.

Kuwait's oil minister Khaled al-Fadhei brushed off fears of a global economic downturn, saying these were "exaggerated." He said global crude demand should pick up in the second half of the year and help reducer oil inventories.

OPEC members have been cutting production to drain global oil stocks and Saudi Arabia is cutting more than the agreed quota.

On Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the signs of an economic slowdown had caused oil demand to grow at its slowest pace since the financial crisis of 2008.

Global oil demand growth has been very sluggish in the first half of 2019 and the situation is becoming even more uncertain amid mounting signs of an economic slowdown and a ratcheting up of the trade row, the IEA said on Friday.

The Paris-based agency cut its 2019 and 2020 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million and 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd), respectively.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Treasuries Show Strong Move Back To The Upside

Trading 12 août 2019 Commentaire »

Following the pullback seen over the two previous sessions, treasuries showed a strong move back to the upside during trading on Monday.

Bond prices moved higher early in the session and climbed more firmly into positive territory as the day progressed. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, slumped by 9.5 basis points to 1.639 percent.

With the steep drop on the day, the ten-year yield more than offset the jump seen late last week, ending the session at its lowest closing level in almost three years.

The rebound by treasuries came amid worries about a prolonged trade war between the U.S. and China after President Donald Trump recently indicated he feels no sense of urgency to resolve the dispute.

Trump told reporters last Friday that he is "not ready to make a deal" with China and suggested the U.S. could skip the next round of trade talks in September. "We'll see whether or not we keep our meeting in September. If we do, that's fine. If we don't, that's fine," Trump said. "But it's time that somebody does what we're doing."

Trump denied that Americans are paying the price for his trade war with China, arguing that Beijing's efforts to depress their currency prove that the Chinese are "paying for it."

"I want them to do well. But as of this moment, they're having the worst year that they've had in many, many years - in decades," he added. "And really, we're just bringing the system back into order."

Concerns about the impact of increasingly violent protests in Hong Kong also increased the appeal of bonds, with the Hong Kong International Airport canceling all departing flights due to the disruption caused by protesters.

The pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong have intensified following allegations of unnecessary police violence on Sunday.

A report on consumer price inflation may attract attention on Tuesday, as the data could impact the outlook for future interest rate cuts.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Futures Settle Higher On Trade, Geopolitical Concerns

Trading 12 août 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices moved higher on Monday as traders sought the safe-haven asset amid fears of a recession due to an escalation in U.S.-China trade dispute.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the anti-government protests in Hong Kong and the political uncertainty in Italy forced investors to stay cautious with regard to riskier assets.

The dollar weakened amid speculation the Fed will come up with more monetary easing in the foreseeable future.

The dollar index, which declined to a low of 97.32, recovered some lost ground and was last seen hovering around 97.40, down by about 0.1% from previous close.

Gold futures for December ended up $8.70, or about 0.6%, at $1,517.20 an ounce.

On Friday, gold futures ended down $1.00, or about 0.07%, at $1,508.50, off the session's high of $1,521.10.

Silver futures for September ended up $0.140, at $17.701 an ounce, while Copper futures for September settled at $2.5850 per pound, losing $0.0040.

Trade worries resurfaced last week after U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. is "not going to do business" with Chinese tech giant Huawei and that he is "not ready" to make a trade deal with China, suggesting the U.S. could skip the next round of trade talks in September.

"We'll see whether or not we keep our meeting in September. If we do, that's fine. If we don't, that's fine," Trump said. "But it's time that somebody does what we're doing."

Political uncertainty in Italy and the anti-government protests in Hong Kong that resulted in the Hong Kong International Airport canceling all departures on Monday also weighed on investor sentiment.

Goldman Sachs cut its U.S. fourth-quarter growth forecast by 20 basis points to 1.8% over the weekend and said a U.S.-China trade deal was unlikely before the 2020 U.S. presidential election.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

August 12, 2019 : EUR/USD technical analysis; Another episode of bearish rejection is being demonstrated around 1.1235.

Trading 12 août 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5d5196caec898.jpg

Back in June 24, the EURUSD looked overbought around 1.1400 facing a confluence of supply levels.

Thus, a bearish movement was initiated towards 1.1275 followed by a deeper bearish decline towards 1.1235 (the lower limit of the previous bullish channel) which failed to provide enough bullish support for the EUR/USD pair.

In the period between 8 - 22 July, sideway consolidation-range was established between 1.1200 - 1.1275 until a triple-top reversal pattern was demonstrated around the upper limit.

Shortly after, evident bearish momentum (bearish engulfing H4 candlestick) could bring the EURUSD back below 1.1235.

Early bearish breakdown below 1.1175 facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.1115 (Previous Weekly Low) where temporary bullish rejection was demonstrated before bearish breakdown could take place on July 31.

On July 31, Temporary Bearish breakdown below 1.1115 allowed further bearish decline towards 1.1025 (lower limit of the depicted recent bearish channel) where significant signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated.

Risky traders were advised to look for bullish persistence above 1.1050 as a bullish signal for Intraday BUY entry with bullish target projected towards 1.1115, 1.1175 and 1.1235.

It's already running in profits. S/L should be advanced to 1.1160 to secure more profits.

During the past week, the depicted Key-Zone around 1.1235 has been standing as a prominent Supply Area where TWO Bearish Engulfing H4 candlesticks were demonstrated.

Earlier Today, another bullish visit was demonstrated towards 1.1235 where another episode of bearish rejection was anticipated.

Thus, the EUR/USD remains trapped between 1.1235-1.1175 until breakout occurs in either directions (probably to the downside).

Bearish breakdown below 1.1175 is mandatory to allow further bearish decline towards 1.1125-1.1115 where another intermediate-term bullish position can be offered (The right shoulder of the expected reversal pattern).

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for a deeper bearish pullback towards 1.1125-1.1115 for a valid BUY entry (where the right shoulder of the reversal pattern is expected to be located).

S/L should be placed just below 1.1080 while initial T/P levels should be located around 1.1160 and 1.1200.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDUSD pulls back to important short-term Fibonacci retracement

Trading 12 août 2019 Commentaire »

After a strong upward move from 0.6677 to 0.6822, price is pulling back and so far it has retraced 50% of the rise. The 61.8% Fibonacci level is the last line of defense for bulls according to Fibonacci levels. It would be ideal for bulls to see price touch that level and reverse to the upside.

analytics5d51799dcf503.png

Blue rectangle - key Fibonacci support area

AUDUSD is pulling back. The blue area is a good short-term target for a reversal of this downward move and the resumption of the upward momentum from 0.6677. So support is at 0.6730 and bulls do not want to see a daily close below that level. Bulls want to see price reverse to the upside and break above recent highs at 0.6822. This would be a bullish signal and would give us 0.69 as the first target and 0.70 as the second. Traders need to be very cautious as there are many chances of trend reversing here. As long as price is below 0.6822 bears are in control. Bears will strengthen their control of the trend with a break below 0.6705. Bears will start losing control of the trend if price breaks above 0.6795.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDUSD pulls back to important short-term Fibonacci retracement

Trading 12 août 2019 Commentaire »

After a strong upward move from 0.6677 to 0.6822, price is pulling back and so far it has retraced 50% of the rise. The 61.8% Fibonacci level is the last line of defense for bulls according to Fibonacci levels. It would be ideal for bulls to see price touch that level and reverse to the upside.

analytics5d51799dcf503.png

Blue rectangle - key Fibonacci support area

AUDUSD is pulling back. The blue area is a good short-term target for a reversal of this downward move and the resumption of the upward momentum from 0.6677. So support is at 0.6730 and bulls do not want to see a daily close below that level. Bulls want to see price reverse to the upside and break above recent highs at 0.6822. This would be a bullish signal and would give us 0.69 as the first target and 0.70 as the second. Traders need to be very cautious as there are many chances of trend reversing here. As long as price is below 0.6822 bears are in control. Bears will strengthen their control of the trend with a break below 0.6705. Bears will start losing control of the trend if price breaks above 0.6795.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD still trapped inside trading range

Trading 12 août 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD pulled back towards recent lows at 1.1165 where we also find short-term support and bounced. Price remains below resistance levels but the trading range its been in is tightening. Soon we will have a trading signal. The direction of the breakout will show us the direction of the new trend.

analytics5d5178b555dbb.png

Magenta lines - bullish flag pattern

EURUSD is trading sideways in a tightening trading range. Resistance at 1.1230-1.1250 remains important for the short-term trend. Support at 1.1165 has been validated earlier as price tested that level and it did not break. This increases the importance of a break if it occurs. A break below 1.1165 will most probably push price below 1.11 again. A break above resistance will give us 1.1330 as the first bullish target.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD still trapped inside trading range

Trading 12 août 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD pulled back towards recent lows at 1.1165 where we also find short-term support and bounced. Price remains below resistance levels but the trading range its been in is tightening. Soon we will have a trading signal. The direction of the breakout will show us the direction of the new trend.

analytics5d5178b555dbb.png

Magenta lines - bullish flag pattern

EURUSD is trading sideways in a tightening trading range. Resistance at 1.1230-1.1250 remains important for the short-term trend. Support at 1.1165 has been validated earlier as price tested that level and it did not break. This increases the importance of a break if it occurs. A break below 1.1165 will most probably push price below 1.11 again. A break above resistance will give us 1.1330 as the first bullish target.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold follows our expected path but still no break out

Trading 12 août 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price continues to trade sideways inside the flag pattern. Price is challenging recent highs but caution is advised to traders as there are several warning signs. We should not ignore the possibility of a fake break out.

analytics5d5176cab0ed1.png

Red lines - bullish flag pattern

Blue rectangle - major support area

Magenta lines - expected path

Gold price continues to trade inside the range of the flag pattern. Support is at $1,485-90 and resistance at $1,510. Usually a break above $1,510 could give us a target of around $1,600 but with current oscillator conditions, I expect a move to $1,535 to be enough. Bulls need to be very cautious as there are bearish divergence warning signs. Failure to stay above $1,485 would lead to a decline towards the blue rectangle area which bulls must defend. Otherwise the medium-term bullish trend will be in danger and we might see a deeper pull back towards $1,350.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold follows our expected path but still no break out

Trading 12 août 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price continues to trade sideways inside the flag pattern. Price is challenging recent highs but caution is advised to traders as there are several warning signs. We should not ignore the possibility of a fake break out.

analytics5d5176cab0ed1.png

Red lines - bullish flag pattern

Blue rectangle - major support area

Magenta lines - expected path

Gold price continues to trade inside the range of the flag pattern. Support is at $1,485-90 and resistance at $1,510. Usually a break above $1,510 could give us a target of around $1,600 but with current oscillator conditions, I expect a move to $1,535 to be enough. Bulls need to be very cautious as there are bearish divergence warning signs. Failure to stay above $1,485 would lead to a decline towards the blue rectangle area which bulls must defend. Otherwise the medium-term bullish trend will be in danger and we might see a deeper pull back towards $1,350.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com