Crude Oil Futures End Lower Again

Trading 06 août 2019 Commentaire »

Amid lingering fears about a likely drop in energy demand due to the ongoing U.S.-China trade war's adverse impact on global economic growth, crude oil prices tumbled on Tuesday.

Oil prices fell despite U.S. President Donald Trump signing an executive order, declaring a total economic embargo against Venezuela, prohibiting transactions with the country, unless specifically exempted.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for September faltered after a positive start and ended lower by $1.06, or 1.9%, at $53.63 a barrel.

Brent crude futures were down $0.68, or 1.1%, at $59.13 a barrel around mid afternoon.

In its short-term outlook, released earlier in the day, the Energy Information Administration said Brent crude spot prices are likely to average $64 a barrel in the second half of 2019 and $65 in year 2020.

Traders also took note of reports that Iran has threatened to block all energy exports out of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has reportedly said that it would do so if it is unable to sell oil as promised by a nuclear deal a few years back in exchange for curbing uranium enrichment.

Markets now await weekly oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The API is scheduled to release its weekly oil report later on Tuesday, while the EIA's inventory data is due out Wednesday morning.


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Treasuries Close Roughly Flat After Recovering From Early Pullback

Trading 06 août 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries moved to the downside in early trading on Tuesday but bounced back near the unchanged line over the course of the session.

Bond prices spent the afternoon bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line before closing roughly flat. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, inched up by less than a basis point to 1.739 percent.

The initial pullback by treasuries came as traders cashed in on the substantial strength seen in the bond markets over the past few sessions.

News the People's Bank of China set the midpoint for the Chinese currency at a stronger than expected level also reduced the appeal of safe havens such as bonds.

A recent drop in the value of the Chinese yuan further fueled speculation Beijing is devaluing its currency to counter President Donald Trump's latest tariff threat.

After refusing to do so several times in the past, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin officially declared China a currency manipulator on Monday.

The Treasury Department said Mnuchin will subsequently engage with the International Monetary Fund to eliminate the unfair competitive advantage created by China's latest actions.

Selling pressure was relatively subdued, however, leading to a subsequent recover by treasuries as traders remain uneasy about the impact of the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

Traders largely shrugged off the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $38 billion worth of three-year notes, which attracted below average demand.

The three-year note auction drew a high yield of 1.562 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.41, while the ten previous three-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.52.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

Amid another quiet day on the U.S. economic front, trading on Wednesday may be impacted by reaction to the results of the Treasury's auction of $27 billion worth of ten-year notes.


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Gold Futures Extend Gains To 3rd Straight Session

Trading 06 août 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices moved up for a third successive session as worries about global growth due to an escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions forced investors to stay away from riskier assets such as stocks and pick up the safe haven asset.

A somewhat steady dollar, however, limited the yellow metal's gains.

The dollar index, which was a bit subdued to start with and faltered a little before noon after a modest uptick, recovered in early afternoon trades and was last seen moving around 97.68, up 0.16% from previous close.

Gold futures for December ended up $7.70, or 0.5%, at $1,484.20 an ounce.

On Monday, gold futures for December ended at $1,476.50 an ounce, gaining $19.00, or 1.3%.

Silver futures for September ended up $0.052, or 0.3%, at $16.445 an ounce, while Copper futures for September settled at $2.5575 per pound, gaining $0.0135, or about 0.5% for the session.

The Chinese central bank fixed its currency at a level higher than expected and this probably indicated a sign of softening in trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. The bank's move comes a day after the yuan fell below 7 and hits its lowest level in about 11 years.

The sharp fall in the value of the Chinese currency on Monday further fueled speculation Beijing is devaluing its currency to counter U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff threat.

After refusing to do so several times in the past, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin officially declared China a currency manipulator on Monday.

The Treasury Department said Mnuchin will subsequently engage with the International Monetary Fund to eliminate the unfair competitive advantage created by China's latest actions.

Trump claimed in a tweet this morning that massive amounts of money from China and other parts of the world is pouring into the United States for reasons of safety, investment, and interest rates.

"We are in a very strong position. Companies are also coming to the U.S. in big numbers. A beautiful thing to watch!" he added.


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AUDUSD weekly analysis

Trading 06 août 2019 Commentaire »

AUDUSD is in a long-term downtrend since 2017. Price has formed a downward sloping wedge pattern while price now is at the lower wedge boundary with high chances of reversing to the upside.

analytics5d49d3da4e92d.png

Black line - resistance

Red lines - bullish divergence

AUDUSD is making lower lows and lower highs. Trend is clearly bearish on a weekly basis. There is no reversal sign yet, but the chances of this happening increase as long as the RSI does not break below the upward sloping red trend line. The bullish divergence on the weekly chart of the RSI is an important warning for bears. A bounce of the 0.6750 area could reach 0.70 easily. So bears need to be very cautious. The first important sign for such a reversal would be if price recaptured 0.68.

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EURUSD stuck at the 1.12 resistance

Trading 06 août 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD has stopped its rise at the 1.12 resistance which was previous support and now resistance. Although price moved a bit higher than 1.12, we are still not confident of this break out.

analytics5d49d25cb8269.png

Red line - lower wedge boundary

Blue lines - bearish channel

Black line -upper wedge boundary

Red rectangle - resistance (previous support)

EURUSD is trying to break out of the short-term bearish channel for a move towards 1.13. Price is testing the 1.12 resistance that was once support. A rejection here will open the way for a move back towards 1.10. Short-term support is at 1.1165. Breaking below it will push price towards 1.11 or lower. Resistance is at 1.1210-1.1250. Breaking above it will push price towards 1.13 or higher.

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Gold gives short-term warning signs for bulls

Trading 06 août 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price is at 2019 highs just $30 from $1,500. The risk reward for a bullish position in the short-term or to open new position now is not good. Traders should be patient for long positions as there are some warning signs for an imminent pull back.

analytics5d49ca840ad47.png

Yellow rectangles - higher highs with divergence

Black line -support

Red line - bearish divergence

The RSI is challenging trend line resistance. Gold price despite making a new higher high is vulnerable to a correction. The bearish divergence is a warning for bulls. This is not a reversal sign. Just a warning. Short-term support is at $1,450 and next at $1,425. If support fails to hold we should expect Gold price to move towards the red rectangle. Gold's upside is limited. Gold bulls should be patient and wait for a deep pull back than chase long positions now.

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Three-Year Note Auction Attracts Below Average Demand

Trading 06 août 2019 Commentaire »

Kicking off this week's announcements of the results of its long-term securities auctions, the Treasury Department revealed Tuesday its auction of $38 billion worth of three-year notes attracted below average demand.

The three-year note auction drew a high yield of 1.562 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.41.

Last month, the Treasury also sold $38 billion worth of three-year notes, drawing a high yield of 1.857 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.39.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous three-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.52.

Looking ahead, the Treasury is due to announce the results of its auctions of $27 billion worth of ten-year notes and $19 billion worth of thirty-year bonds on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.


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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs as of August 6

Trading 06 août 2019 Commentaire »

Hello, dear colleagues.

For the Euro/Dollar pair, the price is in the correction zone from the upward cycle of August 1. For the Pound/Dollar pair, we mainly expect the development of corrective upward movement, as well as the formation of initial conditions for the top. For the Dollar/Franc pair, the price is in the correction zone from the downward cycle on August 1 and the level of 0.9816 is the key resistance for the top. For the Dollar/Yen pair, the main trend development is expected after the breakdown of 105.71. For the Euro/Yen pair, the price forms the initial conditions for the top from August 5 and the development of this structure is expected after the breakdown of 119.85. For the Pound/Yen pair, the price is in the correction zone from the downward structure on July 31, forming the potential for the top and the level of 130.23 is the key resistance.

Forecast for August 6:

Analytical review of the currency pairs in H1 scale:

analytics5d498f53dc894.png

For the Euro/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1284, 1.1259, 1.1234, 1.1162, 1.1145 and 1.1120. The price is in the correction zone from the upward structure on August 1. The upward trend may resume after the breakdown of 1.134. In this case, the target is 1.1259. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.1284, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.1162 – 1.1145 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a protracted correction. The goal is 1.1120 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure from August 1, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1234 Take profit: 1.1258

Buy 1.1261 Take profit: 1.1284

Sell: 1.1162 Take profit: 1.1146

Sell: 1.1144 Take profit: 1.1122

analytics5d498fb18c081.png

For the Pound/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2254, 1.2192, 1.2158, 1.2099, 1.2069 and 1.2021. We follow the downward cycle of July 19, as well as the local downward structure of July 31. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2099 – 1.2069 and the breakdown of the last value will allow us to count on the movement to the potential target – 1.2021, from this level, we expect a correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.2158 – 1.2192 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the top. The potential target is 1.2254.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 19, the local structure of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2158 Take profit: 1.2191

Buy: 1.2194 Take profit: 1.2254

Sell: 1.2099 Take profit: 1.2070

Sell: 1.2067 Take profit: 1.2025

analytics5d498fd10071f.png

For the Dollar/Franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9854, 0.9816, 0.9797, 0.9746, 0.9706 and 0.9673. The price is in the correction zone from the downward structure on August 1. The resumption of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9746. In this case, the target is 0.9706. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 0.9673, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback up.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.9797 – 0.9816 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. The goal is 0.9854 and this level is the key support for the downward structure from August 1.

The main trend is the downward structure from August 1, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9797 Take profit: 0.9816

Buy: 0.9818 Take profit: 0.9852

Sell: 0.9744 Take profit: 0.9708

Sell: 0.9704 Take profit: 0.9675

analytics5d498ff255211.png

For the Dollar/Yen pair, the key levels in the scale of H1 are: 107.98, 107.62, 107.20, 106.48, 105.71, 105.14, 104.44 and 104.00. We follow the formation of a downward structure from August 1. We expect the continuation of the downward movement after the breakdown of 106.48. In this case, the target is 105.71 and the range of 105.71 – 105.14 is the short-term downward movements, as well as consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 105.14 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The goal is 104.45. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 104.00, upon reaching which we expect a correction.

We expect departure to the correction zone after the breakdown of 107.20. The target is 107.62. The range of 107.62 – 107.98 is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure from August 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.20 Take profit: 107.60

Buy: 107.62 Take profit: 107.98

Sell: 106.45 Take profit: 105.71

Sell: 105.69 Take profit: 105.20

analytics5d4990101a39f.png

For the Canadian dollar/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3324, 1.3297, 1.3256, 1.3224, 1.3175, 1.3156, and 1.3129 1.3102. We continue to monitor the local upward structure of July 31. We expect the upward movement to continue after the breakdown of 1.3224. The target is 1.3256 and near this level is the consolidation. The breakout of the level of 1.3257 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The goal is 1.3297. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.3324, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.3175 – 1.3156 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a protracted correction. The goal is 1.3129 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend – local upward structure from July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3225 Take profit: 1.3255

Buy: 1.3257 Take profit: 1.3295

Sell: 1.3175 Take profit: 1.3156

Sell: 1.3153 Take profit: 1.3130

analytics5d4990305fe6f.png

For the Australian dollar/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.6857, 0.6834, 0.6817, 0.6786, 0.6761 and 0.6725. We follow the downward structure of July 31. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.6786 – 0.6761. The potential value for the downward structure of July 31 is the level of 0.6725, the movement to which is expected after the breakdown of 0.6760.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.6817 – 0.6834 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. The goal is 0.6857 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the local downward structure of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6817 Take profit: 0.6832

Buy: 0.6835 Take profit: 0.6855

Sell: 0.6786 Take profit: 0.6764

Sell: 0.6760 Take profit: 0.6725

analytics5d49904d67823.png

For the Euro/Yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 120.68, 120.20, 119.85, 119.43, 118.94, 118.64, 118.22 and 117.68. The price forms the expressed initial conditions for the top from August 5. The continuation of the the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 119.43. In this case, the goal is 119.85 and in the area of 119.85 – 120.20 is the consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 120.20 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The goal is 120.68. The potential value for the top is the level of 121.35.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 118.94 – 118.64 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a protracted correction. The goal is 118.22 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend – the initial conditions for the top of August 5.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.45 Take profit: 119.85

Buy: 120.20 Take profit: 120.68

Sell: 118.94 Take profit: 118.66

Sell: 118.62 Take profit: 118.24

analytics5d499070b8ae7.pngFor the Pound/Yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 130.86, 130.23, 129.80, 128.98, 128.30 and 127.85. We follow the local downward structure from July 31. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone and forms the potential for the top. We expect the continuation of the downward movement after the breakdown of 128.98. In this case, the target – 128.30 and in the area of 128.30 – 127.85 is the consolidation.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 129.80 – 130.23 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a protracted correction. The goal is 130.86 and this level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the local downward structure of July 31, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.80 Take profit: 130.20

Buy: 130.26 Take profit: 130.84

Sell: 128.95 Take profit: 128.30

Sell: 128.28 Take profit: 127.85

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August 6, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 06 août 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5d499c8b84014.jpg

Since May 17, the previous downside movement within the depicted bearish channel came to a pause allowing the recent sideway consolidation range to be established between 1.2750 - 1.2550.

On July 5, a bearish range breakout was demonstrated below 1.2550 (the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range). Hence, quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price zone of 1.2430-1.2385 (where the lower limit of the movement channel came to meet the GBPUSD pair).

On July 18, a recent bullish movement was initiated towards the backside of the broken consolidation range (1.2550) where another valid SELL entry was offered few weeks ago.

Moreover, Bearish breakdown below 1.2350 facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.2320, 1.2270 and 1.2125 which correspond to significant key-levels on the Weekly chart.

The current price levels are quite risky/low for having new SELL entries. That's why, Previous SELLERS were advised to have their profits gathered.

Recently, weak signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated around 1.2100.

This may push the GBPUSD to retrace towards 1.2260 then 1.2320 if sufficient bullish momentum is demonstrated above 1.2230.

On the other hand, The price zone of 1.2320 - 1.2350 (backside of the broken channel) stands as a prominent SUPPLY zone to be watched for new SELL positions if the current bullish pullback pursues towards it.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders are advised to look for early bullish breakout above 1.2230 for a counter-trend BUY entry.

Conservative traders should wait for the current bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.2320 - 1.2350 for new SELL entries.

S/L should be placed above 1.2430. Initial T/P level to be placed around 1.2279 and 1.2130.

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*U.S. Job Openings Drop To 7.348 Million In June

Trading 06 août 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Job Openings Drop To 7.348 Million In June


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