Dollar Pares Early Gains, Turns Flat Ahead Of Fed Policy

Trading 30 juil 2019 Commentaire »

After holding near 2-month highs early on in the session on Tuesday, the U.S. dollar pared gains and stayed subdued during the later part, with traders looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement.

Markets were also tracking news on U.S.-China trade talks, besides reacting to economic data from across the globe.

It is widely expected that the Fed will cut interest rate by 25 basis points tomorrow, but the focus is more on the post meeting comments from Fed chief Jerome Powell.

Powell's comments are expected to provide clues about the bank's outlook for further rate hikes this year and its overall views on economic growth.

A report from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales in the U.S. surged up by 2.8% to 108.3 in June after jumping by 1.1% to 105.4 in May. Economists had expected pending home sales to rise by 0.5%.

A report from the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index surged up to 135.7 in July after tumbling to a revised 124.3 in June. Economists had expected the index to climb to 125.0 from the 121.5 originally reported for the previous month.

Meanwhile, a report from the Commerce Department showed personal income in the U.S. climbed by 0.4% in June, matching the downwardly revised increase in May.

Economists had expected income to rise by 0.4% compared to the 0.5% growth originally reported for the previous month.

The report also said personal spending rose by 0.3% in June after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.5% in May. Personal spending had been expected to increase by 0.3% compared to the 0.4% advance originally reported for the previous month.

The dollar index, which advanced to 98.21 around late morning, edged down gradually to 98.02 and was last seen hovering around 98.05, little changed from previous close.

Against the euro, the dollar was down by about 0.1% at 1.1156, after being down at 1.1162 around late afternoon.

Eurozone economic confidence weakened to the lowest since March 2016, reflecting weakness across industry, services, retail trade and construction, survey results from European Commission showed.

The economic confidence index fell to 102.7 in July from 103.3 in June. This was the lowest since March 2016, when the reading was 102.3.

Germany's consumer confidence is set to fall in August on fears of a recession, with survey data from the market research group GfK showed.

The forward-looking consumer sentiment index came in at 9.7 in August versus 9.8 in July. This was the third decline in succession and the lowest since April 2017.

French GDP grew 0.2% sequentially in the second quarter, slower than the 0.3% expansion seen in the first quarter, data from the statistical office Insee showed. The growth rate was forecast to remain unchanged at 0.3%.

The dollar gained notable ground against Pound Sterling, strengthening to 1.2150, up around 0.55% from previous close. At one stage, the sterling was down sharply at 1.2120, hitting a new 28-month low amid concerns about a likely no-deal British exit from the European Union on October 31.

The yen weakened to 108.95 a dollar in early trades, but recovered well to trim losses as the day progressed. The Japanese currency was last seen moving around 108.60, gaining more than 0.15% in the process.

The Bank of Japan's policy significantly impacted the currency's movements. The central bank maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, as widely expected, and lowered its inflation forecast.

The Policy Board of the BoJ maintained interest rate at -0.1% on current accounts that financial institutions maintain at the bank. The bank said it will purchase government bonds so that the yield of 10-year JGBs will remain at around zero percent.

Further, the bank will purchase JGBs in a flexible manner so that their outstanding amount will increase at an annual pace of about JPY 80 trillion.

The bank lowered its inflation forecast for fiscal 2019 to 1% from 1.1%. The bank also downgraded its growth outlook for the fiscal 2019 to 0.7% from 0.8% but retained its projection for the fiscal 2020 at 0.9%.

The dollar was down 0.14% and 0.13%, against the loonie and Swiss franc, respectively, at 1.3145 and 0.9903.

Against the Aussie, the dollar was up more than 0.4% with the AUD-USD pair at 0.6874.


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Treasuries Close Roughly Flat Ahead Of Tomorrow's Fed Announcement

Trading 30 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries showed a lack of direction over the course of the trading session on Tuesday before ending the session roughly flat.

Bond prices moved modestly lower after seeing initial strength but bounced back near the unchanged line in afternoon trading. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, inched up by less than a basis point to 2.061 percent.

The choppy trading on the day came as traders seemed reluctant to make any significant moves ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

The U.S. economy is experiencing its longest expansion in history, but the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points in a proactive move aimed at offsetting the negative effects of the U.S.-China trade war.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged the Fed to lower rates, claiming in a post on Twitter on Monday that the central bank "has made all of the wrong moves."

Assuming the Fed cuts rates as expected, traders are likely to pay close attention to the accompanying statement for clues about the potential for future rate cuts.

Traders largely shrugged off today's batch of U.S. economic data, as nothing is expected to dissuade the Fed from cutting rates.

Early in the day, the Commerce Department released a report showing personal income and spending both rose in line with economist estimates in the month of June.

The National Association of Realtors and the Conference Board also released separate reports showing a bigger than expected jump in pending home sales and a substantial rebound in consumer confidence.

The Fed announcement is likely to remain in the spotlight on Wednesday, overshadowing reports on private sector employment and Chicago-area business activity.


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Oil Futures End Notably Higher Again

Trading 30 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures rose sharply on Tuesday, as traders awaited the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement and weekly crude inventory data.

The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rate by 25 basis points after its two-day monetary policy meeting concludes on Wednesday. The post meeting press meet of the central bank chief Jerome Powell is eagerly awaited as it is likely to provide an insight into the bank's outlook for future rate cuts.

On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump said a small rate cut "is not enough" as the EU and China will further lower interest rates and pump money into their systems, making it much easier for their manufacturers to sell products.

Traders were also focusing on U.S.-China trade discussions.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for September ended up $1.18, or about 2.1%, at $58.05 a barrel.

On Monday, WTI crude oil futures for September settled at $56.87 a barrel, up $0.67, or about 1.2%, from previous close.

The American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to release its weekly oil report later today.

The Energy Information Administration's official inventory data is due out at 10.30 AM ET Wednesday.

Forecasts are for a drop in U.S. oil inventories for a seventh straight week.


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Gold Futures Extend Gains To 3rd Straight Session

Trading 30 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices moved higher on Tuesday, extending recent gains, with the dollar turning subdued ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, due on Wednesday.

The dollar index, which advanced to 98.21 by late morning after opening slightly below the flat line, pared its gains and dropped to 98.05 later on.

Gold futures for August ended up $9.30, or about 0.7%, at $1,429.70 an ounce.

December gold futures, the most actively traded contract, ended up $8.50, or 0.6%, at $1,441.80 an ounce.

On Monday, gold futures for August ended at $1,420.40 an ounce, gaining $1.10, or 0.8%.

Silver futures for September ended up $0.118, at $16.558 an ounce, while Copper futures for September settled lower by $0.0390, at $2.6875 per pound.

The Fed is likely to cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points when its two-day policy meeting ends on Wednesday.

Investors are awaiting the monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference for clues on outlook for future interest rates.

Gold's uptick was also due to uncertainty about U.S.-China trade pact following Trump lashing out at China in a series of posts on Twitter.

In economic releases today, a report from the National Association of Realtors released a report on Tuesday showing pending home sales in the U.S. spiked by much more than expected in the month of June.

NAR said its pending home sales index surged up by 2.8% to 108.3 in June after jumping by 1.1% to 105.4 in May. Economists had expected pending home sales to rise by 0.5%.

A report from the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index surged up to 135.7 in July after tumbling to a revised 124.3 in June. Economists had expected the index to climb to 125.0 from the 121.5 originally reported for the previous month.

Meanwhile, a report from the Commerce Department showed personal income in the U.S. climbed by 0.4% in June, matching the downwardly revised increase in May.

Economists had expected income to rise by 0.4% compared to the 0.5% growth originally reported for the previous month.

The report also said personal spending rose by 0.3% in June after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.5% in May. Personal spending had been expected to increase by 0.3% compared to the 0.4% advance originally reported for the previous month.


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July 30, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 30 juil 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5d40646409b82.jpg

Since May 17, the previous downside movement within the depicted bearish channel came to a pause allowing the recent sideway consolidation range to be established between 1.2750 - 1.2550 with a prominent key-level around 1.2650.

On July 5, a bearish range breakout was demonstrated below 1.2550 (the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range). Hence, quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price zone of 1.2430-1.2385 (where the lower limit of the movement channel came to meet the GBPUSD pair).

In July 18, a recent bullish movement was initiated towards the backside of the broken consolidation range (1.2550) where another valid SELL entry was offered two weeks ago.

As anticipated, bearish persistence below 1.2460 (38.2% Fibonacci levels) and 1.2430 (38.2% Fibonacci Level) enhanced further bearish decline towards 1.2350.

Moreover, Bearish breakdown below 1.2350 facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.2320, 1.2270 and 1.2125 which correspond to significant key-levels on the Weekly chart.

The current price levels are quite risky/low for having new SELL entries.

That's why, Previous SELLERS should have their profits gathered and Stop Loss lowered to secure more profits.

Currently, The price zone of 1.2320 - 1.2350 now stands as a prominent SUPPLY zone to be watched for new SELL positions if any bullish pullback occurs soon.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders should look for early signs of bullish rejection around the current price levels (1.2125) for a counter-trend BUY entry.

Conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.2320 - 1.2350 for new SELL entries.

S/L should be placed above 1.2430. Initial T/P level to be placed around 1.2279 and 1.2150.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Latvia Growth Eases In Q2

Trading 30 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Latvia's economic growth slowed further in the second quarter, flash data from the Central Statistical Bureau showed on Tuesday.

Gross domestic product grew a non-adjusted 2.1 percent year-on-year following a 3 percent rise in the previous quarter.

The pace of growth has slowed from a recent peak of 5.1 percent logged in the fourth quarter of the year.

On seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, GDP rose 0.8 percent from the previous three months after a 0.1 percent decline in the first quarter.

The statistical office is set to publish detail data on the second quarter GDP on August 30.


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U.S. Consumer Confidence Shows Substantial Rebound In July

Trading 30 juil 2019 Commentaire »

After reporting a sharp pullback in U.S. consumer confidence in the previous month, the Conference Board released a report on Tuesday showing confidence rebounded by much more than anticipated in the month of July.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index surged up to 135.7 in July after tumbling to a revised 124.3 in June. Economists had expected the index to climb to 125.0 from the 121.5 originally reported for the previous month.

"After a sharp decline in June, driven by an escalation in trade and tariff tensions, Consumer Confidence rebounded in July to its highest level this year," said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

"Consumers are once again optimistic about current and prospective business and labor market conditions," she added, "In addition, their expectations regarding their financial outlook also improved."

Franco said the high levels of confidence should continue to support robust consumer spending in the near-term despite slower GDP growth.

Reflecting the improvement in consumers' assessment of present-day conditions, the present situation index rose to 170.9 in July from 164.3 in June.

Consumers claiming business conditions are "good" increased to 40.1 percent from 37.5 percent, although those saying business conditions are "bad" also inched up to 11.2 percent from 10.6 percent.

Those saying jobs are "plentiful" also edged up to 46.2 percent from 44.0 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" dropped to 12.8 percent from 15.8 percent.

The Conference Board also said the expectations index soared to 112.2 in July from 97.6 in June, as consumers were more optimistic about the short-term outlook.

The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will be better six months from now jumped to 24.0 percent from 19.1 percent and those expecting business conditions will worsen fell to 8.7 percent from 12.6 percent.

Consumers' outlook for the labor market was also more upbeat, with those expecting more jobs in the months ahead rising to 20.5 percent from 17.5 percent and those anticipating fewer jobs slipping to 11.5 percent from 13.9 percent.

The report also said the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement in their short-term income prospects increased to 24.7 percent from 20.5 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease declined to 6.3 percent from 7.5 percent.

On Friday, the University of Michigan is scheduled to release its revised reading on consumer sentiment in the month of July.

The consumer sentiment index is expected to be unrevised from the preliminary reading of 98.4, which was up slightly from the final June reading of 98.2.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Austria Growth Slows Again

Trading 30 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Austria's economic growth slowed further during the second quarter of the year, preliminary data from the Austria Institute of Economic Research showed on Tuesday.

Gross domestic product grew 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter following a 0.4 percent increase in the first three months of the year. In the fourth quarter of last year, the economy expanded 0.5 percent.

Growth, based on Eurostat calculation methods, slowed to 0.2 percent from 0.4 percent, the WIFO said.

The slowdown in the second quarter was mainly due to nil growth in investment and weaker exports. Growth in gross fixed capital formation eased to 0.5 percent from 0.8 percent.

Export growth slowed to 0.5 percent from 0.9 percent. Imports rose 0.4 percent after a 0.7 percent gain in the previous quarter.

Year-on-year, GDP rose 1.7 percent in the second quarter after a 1.5 percent increase in the previous three months.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Pending Home Sales Jump Much More Than Expected In June

Trading 30 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Reflecting current favorable conditions, the National Association of Realtors released a report on Tuesday showing pending home sales in the U.S. spiked by much more than expected in the month of June.

NAR said its pending home sales index surged up by 2.8 percent to 108.3 in June after jumping by 1.1 percent to 105.4 in May. Economists had expected pending home sales to rise by 0.5 percent.

A pending home sale is one in which a contract was signed but not yet closed. Normally, it takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale.

With the much bigger than expected monthly increase, pending home sales in June were up by 1.6 percent compared to the same month a year ago, snapping a 17-month streak of annual decreases.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said the sharp increase in pending home sales is likely the start of a positive trend for home sales.

"Job growth is doing well, the stock market is near an all-time high and home values are consistently increasing," Yen said. "When you combine that with the incredibly low mortgage rates, it is not surprising to now see two straight months of increases."

The jump in pending home sales reflected growth in all four regions, with pending sales in the West soaring by 5.4 percent.

Pending home sales in the Midwest and Northeast also surged up by 3.3 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively, while pending sales in the South increased by 1.3 percent.

Last week, separate reports from NAR and the Commerce Department showed a sharp pullback in existing home sales but a substantial rebound in new home sales.


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*U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Spikes To 135.7 In July

Trading 30 juil 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Spikes To 135.7 In July


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