U.S. Dollar Higher Ahead Of Fed Meeting

Trading 29 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar was notably higher against its most major counterparts in the early New York session on Monday, as investors braced for a small interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week following recent strong economic data.

The Fed kicks off its two-day meeting tomorrow, with investors widely anticipating a quarter point cut in interest rate to 2.00-2.25%.

The Fed announces its latest decision at 2:00 pm ET Wednesday, followed by a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell half an hour later.

Traders closely garner Powell's speech for more indications about the trajectory of U.S. rates in the months ahead.

All important jobs report is due at the end of the week, which could also have a significant impact on the outlook for rates.

Employment is expected to climb by 170,000 jobs in July after jumping by a much bigger than expected 224,000 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.7 percent.

This week's economic calendar also includes data on personal income and spending, consumer confidence, pending home sales, manufacturing activity and the U.S. trade deficit that could help offer clues about economy.

The currency fell against its major rivals in the Asian session, excepting the pound.

The greenback advanced to 108.70 against the yen, from a 4-day low of 108.42 hit at 9:00 pm ET. The greenback is poised to find resistance around the 111.00 level.

Data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed that Japan's retail sales were roughly unchanged in June on a seasonally adjusted basis.

That exceeded expectations for a decline of 0.3 percent following the upwardly revised 0.4 percent gain in May

The greenback edged higher to 1.1113 against the euro, following a decline to 1.1139 at 9:15 pm ET. On the upside, 1.09 is likely seen as the next resistance level for the greenback.

The greenback spiked up to 1.2241 against the pound, its biggest since March 2017. Next immediate resistance for the greenback is possibly seen around the 1.21 level.

Data from the Bank of England showed that UK mortgage approvals declined to the lowest since January.

The number of mortgage approvals fell to 66,440 in June from 65,647 in May. This was the lowest since January and below the forecast of 65,800.

Extending early rally, the greenback appreciated to 0.6618 against the kiwi for the first time since July 10. The greenback may face resistance around the 0.645 level, if it rises further.

In contrast, the greenback weakened to a 4-day low of 1.3149 against the loonie from last week's closing value of 1.3166. If the greenback slides further, it may find support around the 1.30 level.

The greenback eased off slightly to 0.6910 against the aussie from a multi-week high of 0.6900 seen at 8:00 am ET. The greenback is seen finding support around the 0.70 level.

The greenback fell back to 0.9912 against the franc, from a high of 0.9937 hit at 5:45 pm ET. The currency is likely to find support around the 0.97 level.


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Capital Economics: UK Mortgage Lending Likely To Weaken On Brexit Uncertainty

Trading 29 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Lending for house purchase in the UK is set to slow in the coming months due to the Brexit uncertainty, Capital Economics said.

Data from the Bank of England showed on Monday that mortgage approvals for house purchase totaled 66,440 in June, up 1.2 percent from May and by 1.1 percent from a year ago.

Meanwhile, UK Finance data last week showed a sharp 6.9 percent annual rise in mortgage approvals in June.

While the former set of data covers the entire lending market, the latter concerns with only two thirds of it, Capital Economics property economist Hansen Lu said.

"So, when combined, the two datasets suggest that while lenders are successfully competing for market share, they are struggling to expand the total mortgage lending," the economist added.

Lu does not expect the recent rebound in new buyer enquiries, as shown by RICS data, to be sustained due to the uncertainty surrounding the October-end Brexit deadline and house prices that are higher than relative incomes.

"Assuming a no-deal Brexit is avoided, we expect mortgage approvals to end the year down by 1 percent, before recovering modestly in 2020 and 2021," Lu said.

"And in the event of a no-deal, we think transactions could see a 5 percent to 10 percent dip across the end of 2019 and into 2020, before recovering in 2021."


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BTC 07.29.2019 – Downward pressure and new momentum down

Trading 29 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Industry news:

San Francisco-based US Capital Global Securities is dipping its toes into the world of cryptocurrencies and blockchain.

The FINRA-licensed broker-dealer company on Monday announced that it is committing $10 million to NYCQ Fund LP, a private digital venture capital fund launched by CityBlock Capital. The firm said it is seeking accredited investors to back the capital, believing the fund's growing portfolio in the blockchain and cryptocurrency sector would put them at the forefront of the digital market period.

Trading recommendation:

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BTC did exactly what I expected last week. BTC did test our downward target at the price of $9.500 and it even went to $9.095. Buyers did try to react on the drop but maximum they got is to the middle of the Bollinger band. I still see more downside potential on the BTC. Watch for selling opportunities. The level of $9.564 looks like a solid sell zone.

Green middle line – 20SMA Resistance

Gray rectangle – Resitance ($9.713)

Horizontal orange line – Support ($9.095)

MACD oscillator is showing the new momentum low in the background and the BTC is trading in the negative territory, which confirms my bearish view. As long as the BTC is trading below $10.000, I would watch for selling opportunities on the rallies, level of $9.564 looks like a solid sell zone. Downward target is set at the price $9.095.

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EUR/USD for July 29,2019 – Bullish divergence on the MACD oscillator

Trading 29 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Trading recommendation:

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EUR did test very important support cluster at the price of 1.1112 but it found buyers, which is sign for me that there is a chance for the more upside. EUR is still trading within the range of the post ECB move from last week between the price of 1.1100 and 1.1186.

Red rectangle – Important support (1.1112)

Orange horizontal line – Resistance (1.1137)

Orange rectangle – Resistance 2 (1.1150)

MACD oscillator is showing the bullish divergence on the last 2 swing lows, which is sign for me that sellers got exhausted, which is good sign for the further upside. As long as the EUR is trading above the level of 1.1100, I would watch for buying opportunities. Upward targets are set at the price of 1.1137 and 1.1150.

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Slovakia Economic Sentiment Improves Slightly

Trading 29 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Slovakia's economic sentiment improved slightly in July, as pessimism weakened sharply in the construction sector and morale markedly strengthened in the services sector, survey data from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic showed on Monday.

The economic sentiment indicator climbed to 95.1 from 94.9 in June. In May, the score was 95.2.

The construction confidence index rose to -18 from -23.5, and the services sector measure climbed to 2 from -5.3 in the previous month.

The retail sentiment index held steady at 19.7, while the industrial confidence measure tumbled to -12.3 from 0.3.


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*Canadian Dollar Hit 4-day Highs Of 1.3157 Vs U.S. Dollar, 1.4634 Vs Euro

Trading 29 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Canadian Dollar Hit 4-day Highs Of 1.3157 Vs U.S. Dollar, 1.4634 Vs Euro


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*Canadian Dollar Extends Rise To Near 3-week High Of 0.9086 Against Aussie

Trading 29 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Canadian Dollar Extends Rise To Near 3-week High Of 0.9086 Against Aussie


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*Canadian Dollar Rises To 82.59 Versus Yen

Trading 29 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Canadian Dollar Rises To 82.59 Versus Yen


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USD/JPY analysis for July 29, 2019 – Selling opportunity near the strong resistance cluster

Trading 29 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Trading recommendation:

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USD/JPY is trading sideways at the price of 108.65 but near the very important resistance (sell zone) at the price of 108.82-108.95. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities as long as the JPY is trading below the 109.00.

Red rectangle – Resistance 108.85

Pink rectangle – Support 1 (108.26)

Pink rectangle – Support 2 (108.02)

Stochastic oscillator is showing the bearish divergence on the most recent upward swings, which is sign that buyers became exhausted and that we might see downward movement in the future. On the MACD oscillator, I found decreasing on the upside momentum and that slow line did start to turn down, which is another sign of the potential downside. Watch for selling opportunities with the targets at 108.26 and 108.02.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

July 29, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 29 juil 2019 Commentaire »

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Back in June 24, the EURUSD looked overbought around 1.1400 facing a confluence of supply levels.

Thus, a bearish movement was initiated towards 1.1275 followed by a deeper bearish decline towards 1.1235 (the lower limit of the newly-established bullish channel) which failed to provide enough bullish support for the EUR/USD.

In the period between 8 - 22 July, sideway consolidation range was established between 1.1200 - 1.1275 until a double-top reversal pattern was demonstrated around the upper limit.

Recent Bearish breakdown of the pattern neckline confirmed the short-term trend reversal into bearish towards 1.1175.

Fortunately, evident bearish momentum (bearish engulfing H4 candlestick) could bring the EURUSD back below 1.1235 which stands as an Intraday Supply zone to be watched for Intraday SELL entries upon any upcoming bullish pullback.

HOWEVER, Early bearish breakdown below 1.1175 facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.1115 (Previous Weekly Low) where evident bullish rejection was recently demonstrated on July 25.

That's why, Intraday bullish pullback was demonstrated towards 1.1175-1.1200 where a valid SELL entry was suggested in a previous article. It's already running in profits.

Today, Bearish persistence below 1.1115 is mandatory to allow further bearish decline initially towards 1.1025.

Otherwise, the EUR/USD remains trapped between the depicted zones (1.1115-1.1175 until breakout occurs in either direction).

Trade recommendations :

Intraday traders who missed the initial trade, another SELL entry can be taken upon bearish breakdown below 1.1115 with initial bearish target around 1.1075 & 1.1025.

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