Crude Oil Futures End Higher On Geopolitical Tensions

Trading 23 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures settled higher on Tuesday, amid continued worries about tensions in the Middle East.

Traders were also looking ahead to the weekly inventory data from Energy Information Administration and the American Petroleum Institute and to the resumption of U.S.-China trade negotiations.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for September ended up $0.55, or about 1%, at $56.77 a barrel.

Traders also took note of a downward revision in global growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF cut its global growth forecast for the year to 3.2% and warned that further U.S.-China tariffs or a disorderly exit for Britain from the European Union could weaken investment and disrupt supply chains.

Amid the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has pledged to keep global markets adequately supplied in the event of a disruption.

The IEA said that the oil market is currently well supplied, with oil production exceeding demand in the first half of 2019, pushing up global stocks by 900,000 barrels per day.

The head of Iran's navy, Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi, reportedly said today that Tehran is observing all U.S. ships in the Gulf region and keeps an archive of their movements.

"We observe all enemy ships, particularly [those of] America, point by point from their origin until the moment they enter the region," Khanzadi said.

Elsewhere, the United States has slapped sanctions on a Chinese company for importing Iranian crude in violation of U.S. restrictions on Iran's oil industry.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the sanctions are "part of our maximum pressure campaign" on Iran.


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Gold Futures Settle Lower As Dollar Rallies

Trading 23 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices drifted lower on Tuesday, as the dollar strengthened against most major currencies after President Donald Trump and congressional leaders agreed on debt and budget deal in order to avert a government shutdown or federal default.

Weak existing home sales data limited the yellow metal's losses.

Traders were also looking ahead to the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

The two-year debt and budget deal will enable the U.S. Treasury to ramp its short-term borrowing and build a cash pile, which had dropped down to around $195 billion in late April.

The greenback was also supported by the IMF's forecast that the U.S. economy will see a 2.6% growth this year. The IMF lowered its overall global growth outlook to 3.2% for the year.

The dollar index rose to 97.71, gaining about 0.5%.

Gold futures for August ended down $5.20, or about 0.4%, at $1,421.70 an ounce.

Silver futures for September ended up $0.065, at $16.476 an ounce, while Copper futures for September ended lower by $0.0220, at $2.7000 per pound.

In economic news, existing home sales pulled back by much more than anticipated in the month of June, after seeing a notable increase in the previous month, the National Association of Realtors released a report on Tuesday showed.

NAR said existing home sales tumbled by 1.7% to annual rate of 5.27 million in June after soaring by 2.9% to an upwardly revised rate of 5.36 million in May.

Economists had expected existing home sales to edge down by 0.2% to a rate of 5.33 million from the 5.34 million originally reported for the previous month.


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Two-Year Note Auction Attracts Modestly Below Average Demand

Trading 23 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The Treasury Department announced the results of this month's auction of $40 billion worth of two-year notes on Tuesday, revealing the auction attracted modestly below average demand.

The two-year note auction drew a high yield of 1.825 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.50.

The Treasury also sold $40 billion worth of two-year notes last month, drawing a high yield of 1.695 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.58.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous two-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.56.

The Treasury is due to announce the results of its auctions of $41 billion worth of five-year notes and $32 billion worth of seven-year notes on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.


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U.S. Existing Home Sales Pull Back Sharply In June

Trading 23 juil 2019 Commentaire »

After reporting a notable increase in U.S. existing home sales in the previous month, the National Association of Realtors released a report on Tuesday showing existing home sales pulled back by much more than anticipated in the month of June.

NAR said existing home sales tumbled by 1.7 percent to annual rate of 5.27 million in June after soaring by 2.9 percent to an upwardly revised rate of 5.36 million in May.

Economists had expected existing home sales to edge down by 0.2 percent to a rate of 5.33 million from the 5.34 million originally reported for the previous month.

"Home sales are running at a pace similar to 2015 levels - even with exceptionally low mortgage rates, a record number of jobs and a record high net worth in the country," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.

He added, "Imbalance persists for mid-to-lower priced homes with solid demand and insufficient supply, which is consequently pushing up home prices."

The report said the median existing home price for all housing types reached an all-time high of $285,700 in June, up 4.3 percent from $273,800 in the same month a year ago.

Total housing inventory increased to 1.93 million existing homes available for sale at the end of June, representing 4.4 months of supply at the current sales pace.

NAR said single-family existing home sales fell by 1.5 percent to an annual rate of 4.69 million, while existing condominium and co-op sales plunged by 3.3 percent to a rate of 580,000.

Existing home sales in the West and South tumbled by 3.5 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively, while existing home sales climbed by 1.5 percent in the Northeast and by 1.6 percent in the Midwest.

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department is scheduled to release a separate report on new home sales in the month of June.

Economists expect new home sales to jump by 5.4 percent to a rate of 660,000 in June after plummeting by 7.8 percent to a rate of 626,000 in May.


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USDCAD bounces as expected targeting 1.32

Trading 23 juil 2019 Commentaire »

USDCAD has started a move higher above 1.31 after bottoming around 1.30 when we noted the bullish divergence signs. USDCAD has the potential to move higher in order to retrace at least 38% of the downward move from 1.3565.

analytics5d3726c0e5ab9.png

Red line - bullish divergence

Blue line - resistance

USDCAD is bouncing towards the downward sloping resistance trend line. I expect this trend line to be broken and price to reach at least the 38% Fibonacci retracement level. USDCAD is showing short-term bullish reversal signs and a good risk reward opportunity favoring bulls is seen here. Support and stop level for bulls is 1.3015 and target is at 1.3230 and higher. Any pull back is considered buying opportunity for the short-term.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCAD bounces as expected targeting 1.32

Trading 23 juil 2019 Commentaire »

USDCAD has started a move higher above 1.31 after bottoming around 1.30 when we noted the bullish divergence signs. USDCAD has the potential to move higher in order to retrace at least 38% of the downward move from 1.3565.

analytics5d3726c0e5ab9.png

Red line - bullish divergence

Blue line - resistance

USDCAD is bouncing towards the downward sloping resistance trend line. I expect this trend line to be broken and price to reach at least the 38% Fibonacci retracement level. USDCAD is showing short-term bullish reversal signs and a good risk reward opportunity favoring bulls is seen here. Support and stop level for bulls is 1.3015 and target is at 1.3230 and higher. Any pull back is considered buying opportunity for the short-term.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Eurozone Consumer Confidence Improves More Than Expected

Trading 23 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Eurozone's consumer confidence improved more-than-expected in July, preliminary data from the European Commission showed on Tuesday.

The flash consumer confidence index climbed to -6.6 from June's -7.2. Economists had forecast a score of -7.1. In May, the reading was -6.5.

The consumer confidence index for the EU edged by a point to -5.9 in July. Both indicators are above their respective long-term averages of -10.7 and -10, the report said.

The final figures for consumer confidence are set to be released along with the economic sentiment indicator on July 30.


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EURUSD breaks support and provides new sell signal

Trading 23 juil 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD has broken through 1.12 and is already 50 pips lower. Trend remains bearish. As we mentioned in previous post there would not be a fourth bounce from 1.12. A break below it would be for real the next time. And here we are. EURUSD is in bearish trend looking for a move towards 1.11 again where the 2019 lows are found.

analytics5d37257dc5ff4.png

Red rectangle - resistance

Green rectangle - support

Green line - trend line support

EURUSD has broken through support and is accelerating lower. Any bounce is considered a selling opportunity as long as price is below 1.1280. Trend is bearish. Target is 1.11-1.1050 over the coming days. We could see a back test of 1.12 but we will also most probably see a rejection. Current price action suggests that the entire move from 1.11 to 1.1412 was just a bounce in the bigger down trend. Taking into consideration the long-term bullish divergence, I would expect a new marginal lower low between 1.11-1.1050 and then a reversal to the upside.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD breaks support and provides new sell signal

Trading 23 juil 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD has broken through 1.12 and is already 50 pips lower. Trend remains bearish. As we mentioned in previous post there would not be a fourth bounce from 1.12. A break below it would be for real the next time. And here we are. EURUSD is in bearish trend looking for a move towards 1.11 again where the 2019 lows are found.

analytics5d37257dc5ff4.png

Red rectangle - resistance

Green rectangle - support

Green line - trend line support

EURUSD has broken through support and is accelerating lower. Any bounce is considered a selling opportunity as long as price is below 1.1280. Trend is bearish. Target is 1.11-1.1050 over the coming days. We could see a back test of 1.12 but we will also most probably see a rejection. Current price action suggests that the entire move from 1.11 to 1.1412 was just a bounce in the bigger down trend. Taking into consideration the long-term bullish divergence, I would expect a new marginal lower low between 1.11-1.1050 and then a reversal to the upside.

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Gold price remains vulnerable due to Dollar strength but holds above key support

Trading 23 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price has broken the bearish flag formation we showed yesterday and has given a new bearish signal. Gold price is vulnerable to a move towards $1,400 and lower. Gold bulls remain in control of short-term trend as long as price holds $1,400.

analytics5d37243cdab3b.png

Black line - short-term resistance (broken)

Red line - short-term support

Red rectangle - key support short-term area

Blue rectangle -target if support fails to hold

Gold price is challenging the red rectangle area and the red upward sloping trend line. Breaking below this trend line will open the way for a move towards $1,350-60. Gold price is vulnerable to the downside. Resistance is at $1,430 for the short-term. Recapturing this level will increase the chances for a new higher high. So far Gold price since the beginning of July is making higher highs and higher lows. This confirms bulls are in control. This will change only with the break of the red trend line. So traders should keep a close eye on the $1,400-$1,415 area.

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