Treasuries Pull Back Near Unchanged Going Into The Close

Trading 22 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries saw modest strength for much of the trading session on Monday before giving back ground going into the close.

Bond prices pulled back off their best levels of the day and finished the session roughly flat. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, edged down by less than a basis point to 2.043 percent after hitting a low of 2.027 percent.

The early strength among treasuries came as traders looked to bonds as a safe haven ahead of the release of quarterly results from a slew of big-name companies in the coming days.

Amazon (AMZN), Coca-Cola (KO), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOGL), Intel (INTC), McDonald's (MCD), and Twitter (TWTR) are just a few of the companies due to report their quarterly results this week.

Buying interest remained somewhat subdued, however, as traders seemed reluctant to make more significant moves amid a quiet day on the U.S. economic front.

Traders were looking ahead to the release of reports on new and existing home sales, durable goods orders, and second quarter GDP.

On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors is due to release its report on existing home sales in the month of June. Existing home sales are expected to edge up by 0.2 percent in June after jumping by 2.5 percent in May.

Bond traders are also likely to keep an eye on the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $40 billion worth of two-year notes.


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Oil Futures Settle Higher On Geopolitical Tensions

Trading 22 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices moved higher on Monday, amid escalation in tensions in the Middle East.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for August settled up $0.59, or about 1.1%, at $56.22 a barrel on the expiration day.

On Friday, WTI crude oil futures ended at $55.63 a barrel, gaining $0.33, or about 0.6%.

Tensions in the Middle East rose after a senior Iranian intelligence officer told reporters in Tehran that Iran has detained CIA-trained Iranian nationals who were attempting to gather information on the country's military and nuclear capabilities.

The officer also said that the rulings for these spies have been issued and a numer of them will be executed as "corruptors on earth."

U.S. President Donald Trump, however, said Iran's claim about capturing 17 people spying for the U.S. is "totally false."

"The Report of Iran capturing CIA spies is totally false. Zero truth. Just more lies and propaganda (like their shot down drone) put out by a Religious Regime that is Badly Failing and has no idea what to do," tweeted Trump. He added, "Their Economy is dead, and will get much worse. Iran is a total mess!"

On Friday, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they had captured a British-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf in response to Britain's seizure of an Iranian tanker earlier this month.

The move has increased the fear of potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf, through which about 20% of the world's oil supply flows.


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Gold Edges Up Marginally After Moving Sideways

Trading 22 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Gold futures moved in a very narrow range around the flat line on Monday, as traders made cautious moves, looking ahead to the upcoming Federal Reserve Monetary policy meeting.

The dollar stayed fairly steady above the unchanged line amid fading optimism about steep interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, thus restricting gold's uptick.

Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about a progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations prompted traders to seek the safe haven asset.

The dollar index advanced to 97.29 before paring some gains and easing to 97.23, still up from previous close of 97.15.

Gold futures for August ended up $0.20, at $1,426.90 an ounce.

Silver futures for September ended up $0.216, at $16.411 an ounce, while Copper futures for September settled at $2.7220 per pound, losing $0.0305 in the session.

Geopolitical tensions have risen after Iran said that it had arrested 17 Iranian citizens on charges of spying for the United States and some of them have already been sentenced to death.

According to reports, an Iranian intelligence official told a press conference in Tehran that those taken into custody allegedly worked on "sensitive sites" in the country's military and nuclear facilities.

The mood was cautious also due to the leadership election in the U.K. and the policy meeting of the European Central Bank.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet and announce its policy move.


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U.S. Dollar Falls As Fed Rate Cut Likely This Month

Trading 22 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar declined against its major counterparts in the European session on Monday, as investors focused on upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, even as hopes for aggressive easing have faded following comments by officials from the central bank.

CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 75.5 percent possibility for a 25 basis-point rate cut at its next meeting at the end of July.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Fed officials are likely to lower interest rates by a quarter-percentage point later this month and may pursue further cuts in the future given slowing global growth and trade uncertainty.

Hopes for larger rate cuts tempered after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard suggested that an aggressive easing measure was inappropriate in the current circumstances.

This came after the New York Fed President John Williams dismissed the likelihood of a large interest rate cut at the meeting later this month.

With today's economic calendar being light, traders await reports on new and existing home sales, durable goods orders and second quarter GDP due this week for more direction.

The currency traded mixed against its major counterparts in the Asian session. While it rose against the yen and the franc, it held steady against the pound and the euro.

The greenback was trading lower at 107.85 against the yen, down from a 5-day high of 108.07 set at 9:30 pm ET. If the greenback extends decline, 106.00 is possibly seen as its next support level.

The greenback depreciated to 0.9804 against the Swiss franc, its weakest level since July 1. On the downside, 0.96 is possibly seen as the next support level for the greenback.

Data from the Swiss National Bank showed that Switzerland's broad money supply grew the most since January 2018.

The broad money supply, M2, expanded 3.7 percent year-on-year in June, faster than the 3.4 percent increase seen in May. This was the fastest expansion since January 2018, when M3 climbed 3.9 percent.

The greenback edged down to 1.1225 against the euro, after rising to 1.1207 at 7:45 am ET. The greenback is seen facing support around the 1.135 level.

Germany's finance ministry warned that the weakness in the industrial sector and exports is set to last longer, mainly due to global risks such as the trade tensions.

"Leading indicators and falling orders indicate a persistently weakened industrial economy," the ministry said in its latest monthly report

The greenback eased to 0.6787 against the kiwi and 0.7057 against the aussie, from its early 4-day highs of 0.6757 and 0.7031, respectively. The currency is likely to find support around 0.69 versus the kiwi and 0.72 against the aussie.

On the flip side, the greenback reached as high as 1.3096 versus the loonie, up from last week's closing value of 1.3059. Next key resistance for the greenback is likely seen around the 1.33 region.

The greenback held steady against the pound, after having advanced to a 4-day high of 1.2456 at 7:45 am ET. At Friday's close, the pair was worth 1.2498.

Survey data from IHS Markit showed that British households' expectations towards future finances remained positive in July.

The headline household finance index rose for the second straight month in July, to 44.3 from 43.9 in June. The score signaled the weakest level of pessimism among households towards their finances since January.


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July 22, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 22 juil 2019 Commentaire »

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Since May 17, the previous downside movement within the depicted bearish channel came to a pause allowing the recent sideway consolidation range to be established between 1.2750 - 1.2550 with a prominent key-level around 1.2650.

In June , temporary bullish consolidation patterns were demonstrated above 1.2650 for a few trading sessions.

However, the price level of 1.2750 (consolidation range upper limit) has prevented further bullish advancement few times so far.

Moreover, signs of bearish rejection have been manifested (Head & Shoulders reversal pattern with neckline located around 1.2650).

Bearish breakdown below 1.2650 (reversal pattern neckline) confirmed the reversal pattern with bearish projection target located at 1.2550, 1.2510 and 1.2450.

Intermediate-term technical outlook remains under bearish pressure as long as the market keeps moving below 1.2550 (the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range).

In July 18, another Bullish pullback was demonstrated towards the depicted price zone 1.2480-1.2500 (61.8% - 50% Fibonacci levels) which failed to provide enough bearish pressure temporarily.

That's why, further bullish pullback was demonstrated towards the backside of the broken consolidation range (1.2550) where another valid SELL entry was offered by the end of last week's consolidations. It's already running in profits.

Bearish persistence below 1.2500-1.2460 (61.8% - 38.2% Fibonacci levels) is mandatory to ensure further bearish decline towards 1.2360 where the lower limit of the depicted movement channel comes to meet the GBP/USD pair.

Bearish breakdown below 1.2360 invites a quick bearish decline towards 1.2320 and 1.2270 which correspond to significant key-levels on the Weekly chart.

On the other hand, please note that any bullish breakout above 1.2560 invalidates the previously mentioned bearish scenario.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can have another SELL Entry upon any upcoming bullish pullback towards 1.2550.

Initial T/P levels to be located around 1.2480, 1.2430 and 1.2360 while S/L should be placed above 1.2590.

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German Finance Ministry Warns Of Prolonged Industrial Weakness

Trading 22 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Germany's finance ministry warned on Monday that the weakness in the industrial sector and exports is set to last longer, mainly due to global risks such as the trade tensions.

"Leading indicators and falling orders indicate a persistently weakened industrial economy," the ministry said in its latest monthly report.

Meanwhile, the positive development in the labor market has continued, but slowed recently, and job creation is set to slow in the coming months, mainly in the manufacturing and trade sectors, the ministry added.

The German manufacturing sector has not yet recovered entirely from the slump seen over the last year, that was mainly due to the sluggishness in the automobile sector.

In May, factory orders declined sharply as trade disputes weighed on foreign demand, while industrial production and exports recovered. However, economists said the rebound in production and orders do not signal an end to the downturn in the manufacturing sector.

Last week, the economy ministry said in its monthly report that industrial activity is set to remain sluggish amid moderating foreign demand, and the service sector growth is likely to lose steam, suggesting that economic trends in the biggest euro area economy will be weak in the second quarter.

Citing the third consecutive monthly increase in underemployment, the economy ministry said the slowdown in the economy is beginning to affect the labor market and this trend is expected continue over the coming months.

In the first quarter, the German economy grew 0.4 percent quarterly, which was the first such increase in three quarters.

The Bundesbank said in its June monthly report that the economy would contract slightly in the second quarter as exports remain weak and the industrial downturn is likely to continue.

The bank downgraded its growth outlook for 2019 to 0.6 percent from 1.6 percent and that for next year to 1.2 percent from 1.6 percent.


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BTC 07.22.2019 – Sell zone at the price of $11.000

Trading 22 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Industry news:

As for private cryptocurrencies, given the risks associated with them and volatility in their prices, the Group has recommended banning of the cryptocurrencies in India and imposing fines and penalties for carrying on of any activities connected with cryptocurrencies in India.

Trading recommendation:

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BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $10.500 in past 24 hours. BTC did test my important resistance level around $10.800 and found sellers, which is first sign of the potential down turn. Pay attention to the resistance at the price of $11.000 cause it is good sell zone up there.

Yellow rectangle – Resistance ($11.000)

Blue horizontal line- Support 1 ($9.083)

MACD oscillator is showing the decreasing momentum and BTC is trading near the resistance, which confirms my bearish view. Additionally, MACD oscillator is also showing that slow line did turn from bullish into bearish, which is another good confirmation for further downside. Bollinger % oscillator did show new momentum down few days ago, which is indication and BTC my at least try to re*visit the low at $9.083. Watch for selling opportunities with the first target at $9.083 as long as the BTC is trading below the $11.000.

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Gold 07.22.2019 -Bearish flag pattern in creation

Trading 22 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Gold has been trading exactly like I expected on Friday. Our Friday's downward target has been met in at $1.420. Since there is strong downward movement in the background and fake breakout of the 20-day high $1.440, I still see potential for more downside.

Trading recommendation:

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Red rectangle – Resistance ($1.433)

Yellow rectangle- Support 1 ($1.415)

Yellow rectangle – Support 2 ($1.401)

Bearish flag pattern on the 1H time-frame is in creation and there is possibility for new downward leg on the Gold. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities on the down break. Downward targets are set at the price of $1.415 and at $1.401.As long as the Gold s trading below the $1.442, I would look for selling opportuntiies.

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GBP/USD: the moment of truth for the pound, who will be the next UK Prime Minister?

Trading 22 juil 2019 Commentaire »

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Tomorrow will be an important event for the United Kingdom and all of Europe – the name of the country's new Prime Minister will be known.

Recall that this post is claimed by two candidates: Former British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and the current Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt. The fate of Brexit depends on which of them will take this position: how will the process of withdrawal of Albion from the European Union proceed, whether it will be brought to an end and on what conditions.

On Tuesday, the Conservative Party of Great Britain will announce the name of the new Prime Minister after counting the votes, and on Wednesday, he will enter Downing Street. At the same time, he will immediately have to deal not only with Brexit but also with the conflict in the Persian Gulf, where Iran was detained by a British tanker on Friday.

The chances of winning in the fight for the chair of the head of government B. Johnson, who is ready to withdraw the country from the EU or die, are maximal.

However, the negative from the election campaign and possible problems in the negotiations between London and Brussels have already been included in the quotes. Both houses of the British Parliament managed to ratify the amendment, which will not allow a "hard" divorce from the EU until October 31 without the consent of Parliament.

However, the exit of the country without an agreement with the alliance can become a reality if the early elections of the Parliament significantly replenished with eurosceptics.

The statement by the EU's main Brexit negotiator, Michelle Barnier, that the unit is open to discussing the status of the Irish border inspired investors to buy pounds. Data on retail sales in the UK in June also added a positive, but the growth above the 1.25 mark for the GBP/USD pair is still difficult.

While the EU is ready to offer the United Kingdom an extension of the Brexit deadline after October 31 for negotiations on a future agreement, and too tough B. Johnson's position is unlikely to be appropriate. Against this background, more loyal J. Hunt can get extra points from Tories.

According to experts, in the event of an unexpected victory of John Hunt, the pound will have a chance for a small recovery.

"If the current foreign minister does lead the government, the GBP/USD pair will rise above the level of 1.27 for some time," Societe Generale predicts.

At the same time, the aggressive rhetoric of the new Prime Minister in the person of B. Johnson after taking office can cause a decrease in GBP/USD by 1.5-2 figures from the current levels.

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Bullish rally about to begin in USD/CHF

Trading 22 juil 2019 Commentaire »

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There're prospects of developing a Wolfe Wave pattern in USD/CHF. As we can see on the 60M chart, the market is about to finish wave 5. The main target is the 0.618 retracement level of the previous upward price movement at 0.9791. The subsequent pullback from this level could be a departure point for a sixth-wave rally.

The main target is the 78.6% extension level (0.9993) of the last bullish rally, which crosses the upper side of the Wolfe Wave pattern. However, if the price goes through this level, we should watch the 100% level (1.0048) as the next bullish target.

Besides, if line 1-3 turns out to be broken and the market moves below the 0.618 level (0.9791), this scenario will be at risk. If this happens, we should wait for the pair's return above this line as the first step into wave 6. The final confirmation will be a breakout of line 2-4.

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