Treasuries Finish Lackluster Session Modestly Lower

Trading 19 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries showed a lack of direction over the course of the trading session on Friday before ending the day modestly lower.

Bond prices spent most of the day lingering just below the unchanged line. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, inched up by 1 basis point to 2.048 percent.

The modest pullback by treasuries came following the New York Federal Reserve's efforts to walk back comments President John Williams made Thursday that seemed to endorse a near-term interest rate cut.

Williams said it "pays to act quickly to lower rates at the first sign of economic distress," arguing it is "better to take preventative measures than to wait for disaster to unfold."

However, a New York Fed spokesman later claimed Williams' remarks were based on years of research and not specifically about potential policy actions at the upcoming Fed meeting.

On the U.S. economic front, the University of Michigan released a report on Friday showing a slight improvement in U.S. consumer sentiment in the month of July.

The preliminary report showed the consumer sentiment index inched up to 98.4 in July from the final June reading of 98.2. Economists had expected the index to edge up to 98.5.

"Consumer sentiment remained largely unchanged in early July from June, remaining at quite favorable levels since the start of 2017," said Surveys of Consumers chief economist Richard Curtin.

The economic calendar is relatively quiet next week, although traders are likely to keep an eye on reports on new and existing home sales, durable goods orders and second quarter GDP.

Bond trading could also be impacted by reaction to the announcement of the results of the Treasury Department's auctions of two-year, five-year, and seven-year notes.


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Oil Futures Settle Modestly Higher, But Loses Over 7% In The Week

Trading 19 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices moved higher on Friday amid rising tensions in the Middle East after the U.S. Navy shot down an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil's uptick was also supported by news that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has seized a U.K.-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for August ended up $0.33, or about 0.6%, at $55.63 a barrel.

On Thursday, WTI crude oil futures for August ended down $1.48, or about 2.6%, at $55.30 a barrel.

For the week, crude oil futures lost more than 7%, weighed down by concerns about outlook for energy demand due to global slowdown.

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters the USS Boxer took defensive action after the Iranian drone moved close to within 1,000 yards of the amphibious assault ship and ignored multiple calls to stand down.

Oil prices were also supported by comments from a top Federal Reserve official that suggested the central bank will cut rates aggressively to support the economy amid the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency has reduced its 2019 oil demand forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd). IEA's executive director said on Thursday that the demand forecast may be lowered again if the global economy and especially China shows further weakness.


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Gold Settles Lower On Profit Taking, But Gains 1% For The Week

Trading 19 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices retreated after rising to a fresh six-year high on Friday, with traders taking some profits ahead of the upcoming monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve.

The dollar's rebound after two successive days of notable losses, contributed as well to the yellow metal's retreat from higher levels.

The dollar index, which settled at 96.79 on Thursday, rose to 97.18 today, gaining about 0.4%.

Gold futures for August ended down $1.40, or about 0.1%, at $1,426.70 an ounce, after soaring to a high of $1,454.40 earlier in the day.

On Thursday, gold futures for August ended up $4.80, or 0.3%, at $1,428.10 an ounce, after having scored a gain of 0.9% a session earlier.

For the week, gold futures gained about 1%.

Silver futures for September ended down $0.003, at $16.195 an ounce, while Copper futures for September settled at $2.7525 per pound, gaining $0.0425 in the session.

Gold prices shot up in recent sessions on hopes the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as early as this month-end.

The recent Congressional testimony by the central bank Chief Jerome Powell, his subsequent comments at some conferences and comments by a few top Fed officials have hinted at a rate cut this month.

Expectations of a reduction in rate increased after recent data showed a significant drop in housing starts and building permits last month.

In economic news today, a preliminary report from the University of Michigan showed a slight improvement in U.S. consumer sentiment in the month of July.

The report showed the consumer sentiment index inched up to 98.4 in July from the final June reading of 98.2. Economists had expected the index to edge up to 98.5.

The uptick by the headline index came as the index of consumer expectations crept up to 90.1 in July from 89.3 in June.

On the other hand, the report said the current economic conditions index dipped to 111.1 in July from 111.9 in June.


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U.S. Consumer Sentiment Shows Slight Improvement In July

Trading 19 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Reflecting an uptick in expectations, the University of Michigan released a report on Friday showing a slight improvement in U.S. consumer sentiment in the month of July.

The preliminary report showed the consumer sentiment index inched up to 98.4 in July from the final June reading of 98.2. Economists had expected the index to edge up to 98.5.

"Consumer sentiment remained largely unchanged in early July from June, remaining at quite favorable levels since the start of 2017," said Surveys of Consumers chief economist Richard Curtin.

He added, "Moreover, the variations in Sentiment Index have been remarkably small, ranging from 91.2 to 101.4 in the past 30 months."

The uptick by the headline index came as the index of consumer expectations crept up to 90.1 in July from 89.3 in June.

On the other hand, the report said the current economic conditions index dipped to 111.1 in July from 111.9 in June.

"Perhaps the most interesting change in the July survey was in inflation expectations, with the year-ahead rate slightly lower and the longer term rate moving to the top of the narrow range it has traveled in the past few years," Curtin said.

The report said one-year inflation expectations slipped to 2.6 percent from 2.7 percent, while five-year inflation expectations jumped to 2.6 percent from 2.3 percent.


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EUR/USD for July 19,2019 – Bullish divergence on the Stochastic

Trading 19 juil 2019 Commentaire »

EUR did exactly what I expected. Yesterday, EUR filed both my targets at 1.1240 and 1.1280. Anyway, today the sellers reacted on the overbought market from yesterday and EUR did back all the way down to 1.1214 (support). In my opinion, you should watch for potential buying opportunities due to support on the test. Upward targets are set at the price of 1.1239 and 1.1261.

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Trading recommendation:

Yellow rectangle – Support (1.1214)

Blue horizontal line- Resistance 1 (1.1239)

Blue rectangle – Resistance 2 1.1260)

Bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator in the background is the sign of the potential rally incoming. EUR is trading in well defined trading range and there is no imbalance on this market. It is very unlikely that EUR take the major swing low at the price of 1.1200. Watch for buying opportunities with the upward targets at 1.11239 and 1.1260.

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Dollar Drops After U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index

Trading 19 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for July has been released at 10:00 am ET Friday. The greenback dropped against its major opponents following the data.

The greenback was trading at 107.60 against the yen, 0.9810 against the franc, 1.1237 against the euro and 1.2532 against the pound around 10:02 am ET.


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*U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index Inches Up To 98.4 In July

Trading 19 juil 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index Inches Up To 98.4 In July


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July 19, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 19 juil 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5d31da9bbb7d5.jpg

Back in June, Temporary Bullish breakout above 1.1335 was demonstrated (suggesting a high probability bullish continuation pattern).

However, the EURUSD looked overbought around 1.1400 facing a confluence of supply levels.

Thus, a bearish movement was initiated towards 1.1275 followed by a deeper bearish decline towards 1.1235 (the lower limit of the newly-established bullish channel) which failed to provide enough bullish support for the EUR/USD.

Recent bearish breakdown below 1.1235 invited further bearish momentum to move towards 1.1175.

However, significant bullish momentum was earlier demonstrated around 1.1200 bringing the EUR/USD pair again above 1.1235.

That's why, the recent bullish pullback was expected to pursue towards the price zone around 1.1275 where a confluence of resistance/supply levels came to meet the pair.

A recent double-top Bearish pattern was demonstrated around the price zone of 1.1275 where a valid Intraday SELL position was suggested in previous articles.

Recent Bearish breakdown of the pattern neckline around (1.1235) confirms the short-term trend reversal into bearish towards 1.1175.

Yesterday, the recent bullish pullback towards the depicted key zone around 1.1235 demonstrated further bullish momentum towards 1.1275 where significant bearish rejection and a bearish engulfing candlestick were demonstrated.

Fortunately, evident bearish momentum (bearish engulfing H4 candlestick) could bring the EURUSD back below 1.1235.

Further bearish decline is expected to pursue towards 1.1175 where new price action should be watched.

On the other hand, any bullish breakout above (1.1235-1.1250) should be watched as it brings the EUR/USD pair again between depicted price-zones (1.1235-1.1275) until another breakout attempt is demonstrated in either directions (More probably to the downside).

Trade recommendations :

For Intraday traders, another valid SELL entry can be offered anywhere around the broken neckline around 1.1235.

Initial Target levels to be located around 1.1200 and 1.1175.

Stop Loss should be placed above 1.1260.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar Mixed Ahead Of U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index

Trading 19 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for July is scheduled for release at 10:00 am ET Friday. Ahead of the data, the greenback traded mixed against its major opponents. While the greenback rose against the yen and the pound, it declined against the franc. Against the euro, it held steady.

The greenback was worth 107.68 against the yen, 0.9815 against the franc, 1.1231 against the euro and 1.2530 against the pound as of 9:55 am ET.


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Canadian Dollar Drops On Dismal Retail Sales

Trading 19 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The Canadian dollar slipped against its major counterparts in the European session on Friday, as a data showed that the nation's retail sales unexpectedly fell for the first time in four months in May.

Data from Statistics Canada showed that retail sales fell 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis in May, following a revised 0.2 percent rise in April. Economists had forecast a 0.3 percent increase.

Core retail sales, excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers, dropped 0.3 percent after a revised flat reading in the previous month. Economists were looking for a gain of 0.3 percent.

Meanwhile, oil prices rose sharply after the U.S. Navy shot down an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz, a major chokepoint for global crude flows.

President Donald Trump told reporters the USS Boxer took defensive action after the drone closed to within 1,000 yards of the amphibious assault ship and ignored multiple calls to stand down.

The loonie was higher in the Asian session amid risk appetite, as comments by New York Federal Reserve President John Williams raised hopes of a deeper than expected interest rate cut by the central bank later this month.

The loonie declined to a 9-day low of 1.3110 versus the greenback, from near a 9-month high of 1.3016 seen at 6:15 pm ET. The loonie is seen finding support around the 1.325 region.

Having climbed to 82.64 against the yen at 4:30 am ET, the loonie pulled back, falling to more than a 2-week low of 82.20. Next key support for the loonie is likely seen around the 80.5 level.

Data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed that Japan consumer prices rose 0.7 percent on year in June - unchanged and in line with expectations.

Core consumer prices, which excludes food prices, rose an annual 0.6 percent - again matching forecasts and down from 0.8 percent in the previous month.

The Canadian currency weakened to 0.9243 against the aussie, its lowest since June 13. This follows a high of 0.9197 it touched at 5:30 am ET. On the downside, 0.94 is possibly seen as the next support level for the loonie.

Reversing from a high of 1.4649 hit at 8:15 am ET, the loonie slipped to a weekly low of 1.4711 against the euro. The loonie is likely to find support around the 1.49 level.

Figures from Destatis showed that Germany's producer price inflation slowed in June.

Producer prices advanced 1.2 percent year-on-year in June, slower than the 1.9 percent increase seen in May and the expected rate of 1.5 percent.

Looking ahead, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for July is scheduled for release in the New York session.


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