NZ Dollar Extends Gain After Strong China Data

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The New Zealand dollar advanced against its major opponents in the European session on Monday, extending its previous session's gains, as encouraging economic data from China allayed some of the fears about slowing global growth.

China's retail sales and industrial production beat forecasts in June, while annual GDP growth was in line with expectations in the second quarter, official data showed.

Annual growth in industrial production advanced more-than-expected to 6.3 percent from 5 percent in May, showing the fastest growth in three months.

Likewise, retail sales grew at a faster pace of 9.8 percent after rising 8.6 percent a month ago. Economists had forecast an 8.5 percent increase for June.

Gross domestic product expanded 6.2 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, matching forecasts. Nonetheless, this was slower than the 6.4 percent growth registered a quarter ago.

The data suggested signs of stabilization in the economy driven by stimulus from Beijing.

The latest survey from BusinessNZ showed that New Zealand services sector continued to expand in June, albeit at a slower pace, with a Performance of Services Index score of 52.7.

That's down from 53.5 in May, although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The kiwi appreciated to a 4-day high of 1.0446 against the aussie, from a 5-day low of 1.0493 touched at 5:30 pm ET. The next possible resistance for the kiwi is seen around the 1.025 mark.

The kiwi rallied to 0.6735 against the greenback for the first time since April 18. On the upside, 0.69 is possibly seen as the next resistance for the kiwi.

The kiwi that closed Friday's trading at 72.19 against the yen climbed to a 2-week high of 72.65. If the kiwi extends rise, 74.00 is possibly seen as its next resistance level.

The NZ currency spiked higher to a 2-1/2-month high of 1.6748 against the euro from last week's closing value of 1.6829. The kiwi is seen finding resistance around the 1.64 region.

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USDJPY challenging important weekly levels after triangle break down.

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

USDJPY has broken out of a triangle pattern with a bearish break down. USDJPY has broken below 108 support area and the lower triangle boundary. Price has now back tested the break down area and got rejected.


Red rectangle - resistance (previous support)

Blue lines - triangle pattern

USDJPY has broken down and out of the triangle pattern. This is an important bearish sign. Resistance is at the red rectangle and as long as price is below that area, we expect to see a continuation of the downtrend towards 107 and lower. Breaking below 107 and specially below 106.80 would be a very bearish sign that will open the way for a move towards 105 and lower. Bulls want to see price recapture the 108-108.40 level and move back above the lower blue boundary of the triangle pattern.

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EURUSD bounces off support as expected. Now what?

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD has bounced off the 1.1250 support area as important Fibonacci support was found there. Price however has still not broken above recent highs and as long as price is below 1.1285-1.13 we remain cautiously bullish with tight stops.


Red lines - bearish channel (broken)

Green line - trend line support

Blue rectangle - pull back target

Red rectangle - resistance area

EURUSD is trying to break above the red rectangle resistance area. Support is important at 1.1250-1.1240. Holding above the green trend line is important for short-term bulls. Breaking above the red rectangle is also important for bulls. This will open the way for a move towards 1.14-1.15. If support at 1.1250 fails to hold then we should expect a test of the 1.12-1.1190 area.

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Gold 07.15.2019 – Rejection of the resistance at $1.419 in the backgorund

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The Gold didn't have enough power to break the resistance at $1.419 and I saw the good rejection there, which is sign for me that buyers got very exhausted there. Since there is rejection of the resistance in the background, I would watch for selling opportunities. Gold also did back into the 24 balance range, which is another confirmation that upside break was unsustainable.


On the 4H time-frame I found that there is bear cross on the Stochastic and MACD, which represents short-term downtrend. Downward targets are set at the price of $1.400 and at $1.386. As long as the Gold is trading below the key resistance swing $1.426, I would watch for selling opportunities on the rallies.

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Gold price remains trapped inside the short-term trading range

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price trades around $1,415 with price trapped inside the trading range its been in since the beginning of July. Gold price mainly moves sideways respecting both support at $1,385 and resistance at $1,439.


Red rectangle - support area

Yellow rectangle - resistance area

Gold price is in a neutral short-term trend trading between $1,440 and $1,385. If support fails to hold we should first see a move towards $1,350 and maybe towards $1,330-$1,300. If resistance at $1,440 breaks we should first see a move towards $1,500 and maybe $1,525-35. In shorter time frames we should keep a close eye on $1,400 support and $1,427 resistance. Breaking either of these two levels will increase the chances of breaking the more important levels.

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New York Manufacturing Index Bounces Back Into Positive Territory

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

After reporting an unexpected contraction in regional manufacturing activity in the previous month, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report on Monday showing activity rebounded modestly in the month of July.

The New York Fed said its general business conditions index climbed to 4.3 in July from a negative 8.6 in June, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. Economists had expected the index to rise to a positive 2.0.

The bigger than expected rebound by the general business conditions index came after it recorded its first negative reading in over two years in the previous month.

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German Economic Trends To Remain Weak In Q2

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Germany's industrial activity is set to remain sluggish amid moderating foreign demand, and the service sector growth is likely to lose steam, suggesting that economic trends in the biggest euro area economy will be weak in the second quarter. "After a surprisingly strong development of the German economy in the first quarter, the current economic indicators signal a subdued development in the second quarter," the country's Economy Ministry said in a monthly report on Monday. In the first quarter, the German economy grew 0.4 percent quarterly, which was the first such increase in three quarters. The Bundesbank said in its June monthly report that the economy would contract slightly in the second quarter as exports remain weak and the industrial downturn is likely to continue. The bank downgraded its growth outlook for 2019 to 0.6 percent from 1.6 percent and that for next year to 1.2 percent from 1.6 percent.

The German manufacturing sector has not yet recovered entirely from the slump seen over the last year, that was mainly due to the sluggishness in the automobile sector.

The weak order situation and the gloomy business sentiment suggest that the lackluster climate in the industrial economy is set to continue, the ministry said. Further, there are currently significant downside risks due to trade tensions, the Brexit process and geopolitical factors, the report said. Citing the third consecutive monthly increase in underemployment, the economy ministry said the slowdown in the economy is beginning to affect the labor market and this trend is expected continue over the coming months.

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*New York Manufacturing Index Climbs To 4.3 In July

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

New York Manufacturing Index Climbs To 4.3 In July

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*Mathematician & WW-II Code-breaker Alan Turing To Be Face Of New GBP 50 Note

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Mathematician & WW-II Code-breaker Alan Turing To Be Face Of New GBP 50 Note

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Ireland Trade Surplus Grows In May

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Ireland's trade surplus increased in May, as exports rose and imports declined, figures from the Central Statistics Office showed on Monday.

The visible trade surplus rose to EUR6.5 billion in May from EUR5.3 billion in April.

Exports grew a seasonally adjusted 5.0 percent monthly in May and imports declined 8.0 percent.

On a year-on-year basis, exports increased 14.0 percent in May and imports fell 2.0 percent.

Shipments to the UK increased 4.0 percent annually in May, while imports declined 4.0 percent.

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