Oil Futures Settle Lower On Demand Growth Concerns

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures edged lower on Monday, as concerns about energy demand growth outweighed somewhat positive factory output and retail sales data out of China.

Reports about Hurricane Barry being downgraded to a tropical depression and forecast that it might weaken further as it moves Arkansas dragged down the commodity.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for August ended down $0.63, or about 1.1%, at $59.58 a barrel.

Meanwhile, Barry, which was downgraded from a tropical storm to a tropical depression, is expected to weaken further as it moves over Arkansas.

A report from the Energy Information Administration said crude oil production from major U.S. shale plays is forecast to climb by 49,000 barrels a day in August to 8.546 million barrels a day.

There is also the likelihood of oil output from Permian Basin rising by about 34,000 barrels a day next month.

In economic news from China, economic growth slowed to 6.2% in the second quarter in the world's second largest economy, helping raise expectations that Beijing will roll out more stimulus soon to ward off a sharper downturn.

Annual growth in industrial production advanced more-than-expected to 6.3% from 5% in May, showing the fastest growth in three months.

Likewise, retail sales grew at a faster pace of 9.8% after rising 8.6% a month ago. Economists had forecast an 8.5% increase for June.


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Treasuries Show Modest Move To The Upside

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

After turning higher over the course of the previous sessions, treasuries saw some further upside during the trading day on Monday.

Bond prices moved modestly higher in morning trading and managed to cling to slim gains going into the close. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, edged down by 1.4 basis points to 2.092 percent.

The uptick by treasuries came as some traders looked to bonds as a safe haven as they wait for corporate earnings season to pick up steam.

Financial giant Citigroup (C) got earnings season off to a positive start with better than expected second quarter results, although a slew of other big-name companies are due to report in the coming days.

Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan (JPM), Kraft Heinz (KHC), IBM (IBM), Microsoft (MSFT), and America Express (AXP) are among the companies due to report their results this week.

On the U.S. economic front, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report before the start of trading showing regional manufacturing activity rebounded modestly in the month of July.

The New York Fed said its general business conditions index climbed to 4.3 in July from a negative 8.6 in June, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. Economists had expected the index to rise to a positive 2.0.

The bigger than expected rebound by the general business conditions index came after it recorded its first negative reading in over two years in the previous month.

Trading on Tuesday may be impacted by reaction to reports on retail sales, industrial production, and homebuilder confidence.


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Gold Futures Edge Up, Settle At Near 2-week High

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Gold futures edged up to close higher on Monday, after opening weak on mixed economic data out of China.

Optimism about the Federal Reserve announcing a rate cut later this month supported the yellow metal.

However, gains were just modest as equities found support and the dollar edged higher, limiting the appetite for the safe haven metal.

The dollar index advanced to 96.97, gaining about 0.16%, after a somewhat sluggish start.

Gold futures for August ended up $1.30, or 0.1%, at $1,413.50 an ounce.

On Friday, gold futures ended up $5.50, or about 0.4%, at $1,412.20 an ounce.

Silver futures for September ended up $0.129, at $15.365 an ounce, while Copper futures for September settled at $2.7110 per pound, gaining $0.0170.

Chinese GDP expanded 6.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, slower than the 6.4% growth registered a quarter ago. However, the economy grew 6.3% in the first half of the year, in line with expectations.

Meanwhile, June factory output and retail sales figures showed signs of improvement, offering some respite to investors worried about slowing global growth.

Annual growth in industrial production advanced more-than-expected to 6.3% from 5% in May, showing the fastest growth in three months.

Likewise, retail sales increased at a faster pace of 9.8% after rising 8.6% a month ago. Economists had forecast an 8.5% increase for June.

In U.S. economic news, a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that regional manufacturing activity rebounded in the month of July after having contracted unexpected a month earlier.

The New York Fed said its general business conditions index climbed to 4.3 in July from a negative 8.6 in June, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. Economists had expected the index to rise to a positive 2.0.

The bigger than expected rebound by the general business conditions index came after it recorded its first negative reading in over two years in the previous month.


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WWII Code Breaker Mathematician Alan Turing To Feature On New GBP50 Note

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The Bank of England announced on Monday that the mathematician and World War II code breaker Alan Turing will appear on the new GBP 50 polymer note.

"Alan Turing was an outstanding mathematician whose work has had an enormous impact on how we live today," Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said, while making the announcement at the Science and Industry Museum in Manchester.

"As the father of computer science and artificial intelligence, as well as war hero, Alan Turing's contributions were far ranging and path breaking. Turing is a giant on whose shoulders so many now stand."

The bank said the new note is expected to enter circulation by the end of 2021.

The reverse of the new note will feature a photo of Turing taken in 1951 and a table and mathematical formulae from a seminal paper that is widely recognized as being the basis for computer science. Further, the Automatic Computing Engine (ACE) Pilot Machine, which was a trial model of Turing's pioneering ACE design and was one of the first electronic stored-program digital computers, will be shown. The imagery also includes technical drawings for the British Bombe, the machine specified by Turing that was instrumental in breaking Enigma-enciphered messages during WWII, and a ticker tape depicting Turing's birth date 23 June 1912 in binary code. Turing, a British mathematician, is considered the father of computer science and artificial intelligence. The scientist played a pivotal role in the development of early computers and his code-breaking role within WWII was instrumental in the Battle of the Atlantic and is widely believed to have shortened the war, the bank said. The "Turing Test" in artificial intelligence and, work on the morphogenetic theory to explain the natural patterns in living organisms, are other contributions from Turing. He was convicted of "gross indecency" for a relationship with a man in March 1952, at a time when homosexuality was considered a crime in Britain. He accepted probation and underwent chemical castration to avoid a prison sentence. Turing died in his home on June 8, 1954, due to cyanide poisoning, in what was an apparent suicide. In 2009, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown made an official posthumous apology for Turing's treatment. The mathematician received a royal pardon for the conviction in December 2013. The "Alan Turing Law" was passed in 2017 that posthumously pardoned men cautioned or convicted in the past for outlawed homosexual acts. In 2016, the Bank of England started issuing currency notes made of polymer, which a thin, flexible plastic material. According to the bank, polymer notes are cleaner, safer and stronger. They can last longer and are more environment friendly than paper notes as they can be upcycled into new plastic items. The bank has issued a polymer notes of GBP 5 and GBP 10 denominations in 2016 and 2017, respectively. The former features former UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill and latter has author Jane Austen on the reverse. The GBP 20 polymer note will be issued in 2020 and will feature artist JMW Turner.


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July 15, 2019 : EUR/USD maintains short-term bullish outlook below 1.1275.

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

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Initially, Temporary Bullish breakout above 1.1335 was demonstrated (suggesting a high probability bullish continuation pattern).

However, the EURUSD pair has failed to maintain that bullish persistence above 1.1320 and 1.1275 (the depicted price levels/zones).

This was followed by a deeper bearish pullback towards 1.1175 where significant bullish price action was demonstrated on June 18.

The EURUSD looked overbought around 1.1400 facing a confluence of supply levels. Thus, a bearish pullback was initiated towards 1.1275 as expected in a previous article.

Further Bearish decline below 1.1275 enhanced a deeper bearish decline towards 1.1235 (the lower limit of the newly-established bullish channel) which failed to provide enough bullish support for the EUR/USD.

The recent bearish breakdown below 1.1235 invited further bearish momentum to move towards 1.1175.

However, significant bullish momentum was earlier demonstrated around 1.1200 bringing the EUR/USD pair again above 1.1235.

That's why, the recent bullish pullback was expected to pursue towards the price zone around 1.1275 where a confluence of resistance/supply levels came to meet the pair.

A recent double-top Bearish pattern Is being demonstrated around the price zone of 1.1275 where a valid Intraday SELL position was suggested in previous articles.

Bearish persistence below the pattern neckline around (1.1235) is mandatory to confirm the short-term trend reversal into bearish towards 1.1175.

Otherwise, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the depicted price-zones (1.1235-1.1275) until breakout occurs in either directions (More probably to the downside).

Trade recommendations :

For Intraday traders, a high-probability SELL Trade can be considered anywhere near the depicted KEY-ZONE around 1.1275.

Initial Target levels to be located around 1.1235, 1.1200 and 1.1175. Stop Loss should be placed above 1.1300.

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Analysis of BITCOIN for July 15, 2019: BTC to regain momentum after breaking above $10,500

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin has been on a roller coaster recently. The price has been ranging between $10,000 to $14,000. BTC is currently residing at near $10,500 while forming bullish momentum along the way.

While the outlook is currently negative, there are signs that Bitcoin will recover into the end of 2019. There are predictions that Bitcoin may surge 250% from the current price level which would push the price towards $40,000. The last quarter of 2019 is expected to be quite bullish for Bitcoin based on analytical reviews so that the price may surpass the bullish run of 2017.

Amid expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, Bitcoin could regain momentum and climb higher. Any impulsive bullish pressure above $14,000 would lead the price towards $20,000 in no time. Though the US central bank has been quite indecisive with the rate cut recently, the current economic conditions, the US government involvement, and low consumer inflation could assure the Fed to raise interest rates at the policy meeting in July. Meanwhile, safe-haven investment is viewed as gold and bitcoin. BTC which is widely expected to surge higher in the coming days.

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:

The price recently bounced off the $10,000 area again after an impulsive non-volatile bearish trend in place. The price managed to regain bullish pressure but until $10,500 is taken out with strong bullish pressure, the upcoming upward pressure is still unreliable. The price has managed to break above the dynamic level resistances and Chikou span is on its way to break above the price line which will take into form after the price successfully breaks above $10,500 area in the coming hours. As the price progresses higher, Kumo Cloud is expected to act as dynamic resistance. On the other hand, breaking above it will reinforce the bullish pressure which could lead the price towards $14,000 again in the coming days.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:

SUPPORT: 9,500, 10,000

RESISTANCE: 10,500, 11,000, 11,500, 12,000

CURRENT BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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July 15, 2019 : GBP/USD is establishing a high-probability intraday bearish setup.

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

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Since May 17, the previous downside movement within the depicted bearish channel came to a pause allowing the recent sideway consolidation range to be established between 1.2750 - 1.2550 with a prominent key-level around 1.2650.

In June , temporary bullish consolidation patterns were demonstrated above 1.2650 for a few trading sessions.

However, the price level of 1.2750 (consolidation range upper limit) has prevented further bullish advancement few times so far.

Moreover, signs of bearish rejection have been manifested (Head & Shoulders reversal pattern with neckline located around 1.2650).

Bearish breakdown below 1.2650 (reversal pattern neckline) confirmed the reversal pattern with bearish projection target located at 1.2550, 1.2510 and 1.2450.

Intermediate-term technical outlook remains under bearish pressure as long as the market keeps moving below 1.2650 (mid-range key-level and neckline of the reversal pattern).

Moreover, the recent Bearish breakdown below 1.2570 - 1.2550 (the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range) confirms a trend reversal into bearish on the short-term.

Quick bearish decline was expected to pursue towards 1.2450 (the lower limit of the current movement channel) where early signs of bullish rejection were manifested.

The current bullish pullback towards 1.2550-1.2570 should be considered as a valid SELL signal for Intraday traders.

On the other hand, An Intraday bullish position can ONLY be considered if the current bullish rejection manages to bring the GBP/USD steadily above the price level of 1.2550.

If so, Intraday bullish target would be projected towards 1.2650.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can have a valid SELL Entry anywhere around the current price levels (1.2550-1.2570).

T/P levels to be located around 1.2490 and 1.2440.

S/L should be placed above 1.2610.

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New York Manufacturing Activity Rebounds Modestly In July

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

After reporting an unexpected contraction in regional manufacturing activity in the previous month, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report on Monday showing activity rebounded modestly in the month of July.

The New York Fed said its general business conditions index climbed to 4.3 in July from a negative 8.6 in June, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. Economists had expected the index to rise to a positive 2.0.

The bigger than expected rebound by the general business conditions index came after it recorded its first negative reading in over two years in the previous month.

The rebound by the headline index came as the new orders index jumped to a negative 1.5 in July from a negative 12.0 in June, indicating new orders continued to contract but at a much slower rate.

The report also said the shipments index dipped to 7.2 in July from 9.7 in June, although a positive reading still indicates growth.

Meanwhile, the number of employees index slumped to a negative 9.6 in July from a negative 3.5 in June, falling to its lowest level in nearly three years

The prices paid index also dipped to 25.5 in July from 27.8 in June, while the prices received index edged down to 5.8 from 6.8.

Looking ahead, the New York Fed said the indexes assessing the six-month outlook were generally somewhat higher than last month, with the index for future business conditions rising to 30.8 in July from 25.7 in June.

The Philadelphia Fed is scheduled to release its report on regional manufacturing activity in the month of July on Thursday. The Philly Fed Index is expected to climb to 5.0 in July after tumbling to 0.3 in June.


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GBP/USD 07.15.2019 – Strong support on the test at 1.2525

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The Gold didn't have enough power to break the resistance at $1.419 and I saw the good rejection there, which is sign for me that buyers got very exhausted there. Since there is rejection of the resistance in the background, I would watch for selling opportunities. Gold also did back into the 24 balance range, which is another confirmation that upside break was unsustainable.

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On the 4H time-frame I found that there is bear cross on the Stochastic and MACD, which represents short-term downtrend. Downward targets are set at the price of $1.400 and at $1.386. As long as the Gold is trading below the key resistance swing $1.426, I would watch for selling opportunities on the rallies. Usually, when we have Asia and Europe session directional movement like today, US session will try to reverse. Today is great example of 2 sessions down and US session is starting to reverse on the upside.

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Analysis of gold for July 15, 2019: gold to correct before retracing towards $1,350

Trading 15 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Gold has been quite corrective and indecisive at near $1,400 where 20 EMA has been holding the price as dynamic support while the price is correcting itself after the impulsive bullish move.

Gold prices headed higher recently as a boost in risk from generally positive economic data was insufficient to derail demand in an environment marked by decreasing yields. Despite the positive reaction to the data in global equities today, US futures pointed to new record highs which helped gold to hold gains as the precious metal continued to benefit from expectations of decreasing rates. As expectations for further policy easing across the globe increase, yields have been dropping on most fixed-income products bonds, even those traditionally seen as high-risk in economic downturns.

The Federal Reserve has been under pressure from the US government. Some Fed officials believe that lower interest rates would lead to achieving the inflation goal. Investors are betting that Fed officials will announce a reduction in the benchmark overnight interest rate on July 30-31. Recently, quarterly projections published after the FOMC's June meeting revealed that the committee's median estimate of the neutral interest rate had fallen to 2.5% from 2.75% that indicates strong likelihood of the rate cut.

US Retail Sales are expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.5%. Such downbeat retail sales could shift market sentiment in favor of gold as safe-haven investment for the coming days.

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:

The price has been trading in a range between $1,400 to $1,440 where the dynamic level of 20 EMA managed to hold the price as support. MACD currently has no Bearish Divergence that indicates further corrections. However, having a bullish crossover in the Moving Average lines indicates that a break below $1,400 will push the price lower to $1,350 before any bullish pressure will resume a climb towards $1,500 in the future.

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