Dollar Drifts Lower Against Rivals On Rate Cut Bets

Trading 12 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar exhibited weakness against all the major currencies on Friday as traders continued to bet the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this month.

The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whose testimony on Wednesday hinted at a rate cut this month, indicated such a possibility once again on Thursday when he said businesses slow investment due to trade disputes and a global growth slowdown.

The dollar index drifted down to a low of 96.79, after initially edging up to 97.12 and scoring a small gain. It had ended the previous session at 97.05.

Against the euro, the dollar was down by about 0.14%, at $1.1271, after having strengthened to $1.1239 earlier in the day.

Data from Eurostat showed that Eurozone industrial production rebounded at a faster than expected pace 0.9% month-on-month in May, after declining 0.4% in April. This was the first increase in four months.

The pound sterling surged up 0.4% to $1.2572, rallying from a low of $1.2520.

The dollar was notably lower against the yen as well, with a unit of greenback fetching 107.90 yen, about 0.55% down from 108.49 yen late Thursday.

Against the loonie, the dollar weakened to 1.3035, losing about 0.28% and giving the Canadian currency its highest value against the greenback in about ten months.

Against Swiss franc, the dollar shed nearly 0.6% at 0.9842. The Aussie strengthened by 0.66%, with the pair trading at 0.7020.

A report from the Labor Department today said the producer price index for final demand inched up by 0.1% in June, matching the uptick seen in May. Economists had expected producer prices to come in unchanged.

Excluding food and energy prices, core producer prices climbed by 0.3% in June after rising by 0.2% in May. Core prices had been expected to show another 0.2% increase.

On Thursday, the data from the Labor Department showed consumer price index inched up by 0.1% in June, matching the slight increase seen in May. Economists had expected consumer prices to come in unchanged.

The unexpected uptick in consumer prices came even though energy prices tumbled by 2.3% in June after falling by 0.6% in May.


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Crude Oil Futures Settle Flat

Trading 12 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures ended flat on Friday as traders stayed largely cautious, weighing near term prospects for energy demand and supply.

According to reports, the Tropical Storm Barry is likely to become a hurricane on reaching the Louisiana coast on Saturday.

Over 250 production platforms in the region have been evacuated so far and close to 60% of Gulf oil production and about 50% of natural-gas production have been shut.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for August ended at $60.21 a barrel, up just a penny over previous close.

For the week, oil futures gained about 4.7%.

Rising worries about Middle East tensions and fairly encouraging export data from China supported oil prices and prevented a decline.

Traders were also reacting to a report from the International Energy Agency that said surging U.S. oil output will outpace sluggish global demand and lead to a large inventory build around the world in the next nine months.

A report from Baker Hughes said the U.S. oil rig count fell for the second straight week, with drillers cutting four oil rigs in the week to July 12, reducing the total to 784, the lowest since February 2018.


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Treasuries Move Modestly Higher After Seeing Early Weakness

Trading 12 juil 2019 Commentaire »

After moving modestly lower early in the session, treasuries turned higher over the course of the trading session on Friday.

Bond prices moved to the upside going into the close after spending much of the session lingering near the unchanged line. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, edged down by 1.4 basis points to 2.106 percent.

Treasuries may have benefited from their appeal as a safe haven as traders brace for the unofficial start of corporate earnings season next week.

Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), IBM (IBM), Netflix (NFLX), Microsoft (MSFT), and American Express (AXP) are among the slew of companies due to report their quarterly results.

The early weakness among treasuries came following the release of a report from the Labor Department showing U.S. producer prices unexpectedly edged higher in the month of June.

The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand inched up by 0.1 percent in June, matching the uptick seen in May. Economists had expected producer prices to come in unchanged.

Excluding food and energy prices, core producer prices climbed by 0.3 percent in June after rising by 0.2 percent in May. Core prices had been expected to show another 0.2 percent increase.

"The small gain in producer prices in June suggests the increase in tariffs on $200bn of imports from China has yet to generate a pick-up in inflation and confirms that underlying domestic inflationary pressures remain subdued," said Michael Pearce, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics.

He added, "That should help ease any fears, following the June CPI figures released yesterday, that underlying consumer price inflation will rise back above 2%."

Earnings news is likely to be in the spotlight next week, although traders are also likely to keep an eye on reports on retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and homebuilder confidence.

The Federal Reserve is also scheduled to release its Beige Book, which may shed additional light on the near-term outlook for interest rates.


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Gold Futures Settle Higher As Dollar Eases

Trading 12 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices moved higher on Friday, as the dollar weakened amid rising optimism about a reduction in U.S. interest rate later this month and another possible cut before the end of current year.

Fresh concerns over U.S.-China trade dispute after President Donald Trump accused China of breaking a promise it made on buying agricultural products from American farmers contributed as well to the safe haven asset's rise.

The dollar index dropped to 96.81, losing about 0.25% from previous close.

August gold up $5.50, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,412.20/oz

On Thursday, gold futures pared early gains and settled lower by $5.80 or about 0.4%, at $1,406.70 an ounce, well off the day's high of $1,429.40 an ounce.

Gold futures gained nearly 1% in the week.

Silver futures for September ended up $0.090, at $15.236 an ounce, while Copper futures for September settled at $2.6940 per pound, gaining $0.0065 for the session.

On the trade front, Trump tweeted accused China of breaking a promise it made on buying more agricultural products from American farmers. He wrote: "They have not been buying the agricultural products from our great Farmers that they said they would," the president said on Twitter. "Hopefully, they will start soon."

Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated on Thursday that the U.S. central bank is prepared to cut interest rates to keep the economy in good shape.

He did not specifically state that a rate cut could be coming at the July meeting, but investors took his two days of testimony as strong evidence that it will occur.

In economic news, a report from the Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand inched up by 0.1% in June, matching the uptick seen in May. Economists had expected producer prices to come in unchanged.

Excluding food and energy prices, core producer prices climbed by 0.3% in June after rising by 0.2% in May. Core prices had been expected to show another 0.2% increase.


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Gold 07.12.2019 – Trading range condition

Trading 12 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The Gold has been trading trading sideways in past 24 hours at the price of $1.408. Anyway, there is the well defined trading range between the price of $1.411 and $1.401. The potential break of up limit or down limit will define further direction. The potential break of the resistance at $1.411 would confirm test of $1.419 and potential break of the $1.408 would confirm the potential testing of $1.399-$1.386.

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. On the 41 time-frame I found that both MACD and Stochastic are neutral and going neutral, which is sign that there is no momentum on either direction. Watch for potential breakout of the trading range to confirm further direction.

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July 12, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 12 juil 2019 Commentaire »

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Initially, Temporary Bullish breakout above 1.1335 was demonstrated (suggesting a high probability bullish continuation pattern).

However, the EURUSD pair has failed to maintain that bullish persistence above 1.1320 and 1.1275 (the depicted price levels/zones).

This was followed by a deeper bearish pullback towards 1.1175 where significant bullish price action was demonstrated on June 18.

The EURUSD looked overbought around 1.1400 facing a confluence of supply levels. Thus, a bearish pullback was initiated towards 1.1275 as expected in a previous article.

Further Bearish decline below 1.1275 enhanced a deeper bearish decline towards 1.1235 (the lower limit of the newly-established bullish channel) which failed to provide enough bullish support for the EUR/USD.

The recent bearish breakdown below 1.1235 invited further bearish momentum to move towards 1.1175.

However, significant bullish momentum was earlier demonstrated around 1.1200 bringing the EUR/USD pair again above 1.1235.

That's why, the recent bullish pullback was expected to pursue towards the price zone around 1.1275 where a confluence of resistance/supply levels came to meet the pair.

A recent double-top Bearish pattern was demonstrated around the price zone of 1.1275 where a valid Intraday SELL position was suggested in previous articles.

Bearish persistence below the pattern neckline around (1.1235) is mandatory to confirm the short-term trend reversal into bearish towards 1.1175.

Otherwise, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the depicted price-zones (1.1235-1.1275) until breakout occurs in either directions (More probably to the downside).

Trade recommendations :

For Intraday traders, a valid SELL entry was suggested at retesting of the broken key-zone around 1.1275. It's already running in profits.

Initial Target levels to be located around 1.1235, 1.1200 and 1.1175.

Stop Loss should be placed above 1.1300.

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EUR/USD for July 12,2019 – ABC down potetnial completion

Trading 12 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The EURUSD has been trading trading sideways in past 24 hours. Anyway, there was the rejection of the support at the price of 1.1244. In my opinion, there is potential for the ABC down completion, which is sign that EUR may trade higher towards the resistance levels at 1.1272, 1.1284 and 1.1308. Industry news:

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress this week, telling lawmakers that the central bank is concerned about weak inflation and other uncertainties. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at its next policy meeting at the end of the month. Meanwhile, core inflation data rose in June, pointing to a moderate gain in retail prices.That follows data from Thursday that showed underlying consumer prices increased in June to an almost one-and-a-half year high. Still, signs of underlying inflation picking up have failed to diminish hope that the Fed will cut rates.

Technical view:

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. On the H1 time-frame I found that there is bullr cross on the Stochastic and MACD, which represents short-term up momentum. The volume for today is light and there is not much going on. Anyway, rejection of the support at the price of 1.1244 is sign that buyers are still in control and that you should watch for buying opportunities with the first target at the price of 1.1272.

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Bank Of Italy Sees Growth Slowing To 0.1% This Year

Trading 12 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The Bank of Italy on Friday projected that Italy's economic growth is set to slow to 0.1 percent this year from 0.7 percent in 2018. The economy grew 0.1 percent in the first quarter after contracting 0.1 percent in the final three months of 2018. The pace of growth was projected to improve to 0.8 percent next year and to 1 percent in 2021. The projections assume a scenario of weaker world trade, persisting trade tensions, a very accommodative monetary stance, as signaled by the European Central Bank, and sovereign spreads that are still high, the bank said in its latest Economic Bulletin, released Friday. The outlook reflects a slowdown in investment and exports, the report said. Economic activity is forecast to gradually recover in the second half of the year, led by household spending and exports.


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BTC 07.12.2019 – Second bear flag in creation

Trading 12 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Industry news:

POTUS finally tweeted about Bitcoin, and it had absolutely no effect. Considering the daily Twitter-tirade that Donald Trump spews, which covers everything from an all-out war with Iran to

As I expected, the level of $11.700 did provide a strong resistance for the BTC. There is still more downside yet to come since there was a breakout of the upward channel (red up-sloping lines), which is good confirmation that downside pressure is strong. Most recently I found a second bear flag in creation on the 1H time-frame, which is good confirmation for further downside after the break of the channel. The RSI oscillator is having the bear cross.

Downward targets are set at the price of $10.726 and at $9.751. As long as the BTC is trading below $13.000, I would watch for selling opportunities. Important upward reference points: $11.700 – Previous swing low acting like resistance (yellow rectangle) $11.700 – Previous hourly swing high Important downward reference points: $10.726 – FE 61.8% (green rectangle) $9.751 – Important swing lowThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

July 12, 2019 : GBP/USD remains under bearish pressure around 1.2550.

Trading 12 juil 2019 Commentaire »

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Since May 17, the previous downside movement within the depicted bearish channel came to a pause allowing the recent sideway consolidation range to be established between 1.2750 - 1.2550 with a prominent key-level around 1.2650.

On June 4, temporary bullish consolidations above 1.2650 were demonstrated for a few trading sessions.

However, the price level of 1.2750 (consolidation range upper limit) has prevented further bullish advancement.

Moreover, early signs of bearish rejection have been manifested (Head & Shoulders reversal pattern with neckline located around 1.2650).

Bearish breakdown below 1.2650 (reversal pattern neckline) confirmed the reversal pattern with bearish projection target located at 1.2550, 1.2510 and 1.2450.

Short-term outlook remains under bearish pressure as long as the market keeps moving below 1.2650 (mid-range key-level and neckline of the reversal pattern).

In general, the recent Bearish breakdown below 1.2570 - 1.2550 (the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range) confirms a trend reversal into bearish on the intermediate term.

Immediate bearish decline was expected towards 1.2505.

Further bearish decline was expected to pursue towards 1.2450 (the lower limit of the current movement channel) where early signs of bullish rejection were manifested.

The current bullish pullback towards 1.2550-1.2570 should be considered as a valid SELL signal for Intraday traders.

On the other hand, An Intraday bullish position can ONLY be considered if the current bullish rejection manages to bring the GBP/USD again above the price level of 1.2540.

If so, Intraday bullish target would be projected towards 1.2650.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can have a valid SELL Entry anywhere around the lower limit of the broken consolidation range near (1.2550-1.2570).

T/P levels to be located around 1.2490 and 1.2440.

S/L should be placed above 1.2610.

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