Treasuries Move Back To The Downside Ahead Of Powell Testimony

Trading 09 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Following the modest rebound seen in the previous session, treasuries moved back to the downside during trading on Tuesday.

Bond prices came under pressure early in the session and remained in negative territory throughout the day. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, rose by 2 basis points to 2.054 percent.

With the increase on the day, the ten-year yield climbed further off the well over two-year closing low set last Wednesday.

The pullback by treasuries came as traders looked ahead to highly anticipated Congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Powell is due to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.

The Fed chief is not likely to specifically lay out the central bank's plans to lawmakers, but traders are likely to closely analyze his comments for clues about the outlook for interest rates.

Wednesday will also see the release of the minutes of the Fed's last monetary policy meeting, which may shed additional light on the central bank's decision to make notable changes to its accompanying statement.

Treasuries remained in the red following the release of the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $38 billion worth of three-year notes, which attracted below average demand.

The three-year note auction drew a high yield of 1.857 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.39, while the ten previous three-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.54.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

Powell's testimony and the minutes of the Fed's June meeting are likely to be in focus on Wednesday, as traders attempt to gauge the likelihood of an interest rate cut at the next central bank meeting later this month.


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Oil Futures Settle Higher Ahead Of Inventory Data

Trading 09 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures settled higher on Tuesday, with traders making cautious moves, weighing crude demand and supply prospects ahead of weekly inventory data.

The American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to release its weekly oil report later today, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration's crude inventory data is due Wednesday morning.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for August ended up $0.17, or 0.3%, at $57.83 a barrel, recovering from a low of $57.29 a barrel.

On Monday, WTI crude oil futures for August ended up $0.15, or about 0.3%, at $57.66 a barrel.

A slowing global economy due to the effects of the ongoing trade war is expected to result in a decline in demand for energy.

Traders were also weighing the likely impact of geopolitical conflicts and the decision of OPEC and allies to extend output cuts until March 2020 on crude supply and demand.

Geopolitical concerns increased after Iran reportedly breached a uranium enrichment cap set by a troubled 2015 nuclear deal, a year after Washington pulled out of the landmark accord between world powers and Tehran.

U.S. President Donald Trump warned Tehran that "Iran better be careful."


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Gold Futures Settle Slightly Higher

Trading 09 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, as traders awaited Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress on July 10 & 11.

However, the dollar's continued strength limited the yellow metal's gains.

The dollar index advanced to 97.59 and despite paring some gains subsequently, was still up more than 0.1%, at 97.50.

Gold futures for August ended up $0.50, or about 0.4%, at $1,400.50 an ounce, recovering from the day's low of $1,387.50.

Silver futures for September ended up $0.097, at $15.147 an ounce, while Copper futures for September settled lower by $0.0340, at $2.6250 per pound.

Powell's testimony to Congress is eagerly awaited by investors as it is likely to offer clues about the outlook for interest rate cuts in the near-term.

Powell, who spoke at a conference Tuesday morning regarding recent stress tests for banks, did not make any comment on monetary policy.

The minutes of the Fed's last monetary policy meeting, to be released tomorrow, may shed additional light on the central bank's decision to make notable changes to its accompanying statement.

On the trade front, the U.S. and China are scheduled to resume trade talks this week.

In economic news, a report released by the Federal Reserve showed consumer credit in the U.S. increased by more than expected in the month of May, reflecting notable growth in both revolving and non-revolving credit.

The Fed said consumer credit surged up by $17.1 billion in May after jumping by $17.5 billion in April. Economists had expected consumer credit to climb by $16.7 billion.

Compared to the same month a year ago, consumer credit in May was up by 5%, as revolving credit spiked by 8.2% and non-revolving credit rose by 3.9%.


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Three-Year Note Auction Attracts Below Average Demand

Trading 09 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The Treasury Department kicked off this week's announcements of the results of its long-term securities auctions with the release of the results of its auction of $38 billion worth of three-year notes on Tuesday, revealing the auction attracted below average demand.

The three-year note auction drew a high yield of 1.857 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.39.

Last month, the Treasury also sold $38 billion worth of three-year notes, drawing a high yield of 1.861 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.62.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous three-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.54.

Looking ahead, the Treasury Department is due to announce the results of its auctions of $24 billion worth of ten-year notes and $16 billion worth of thirty-year bonds on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.


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EUR/USD analysis for July 09,2019 – Bullish diverrgence on the oscillators

Trading 09 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The EUR did test-reject of the median Pitchfork channel and also key support at the price of 1.1190, which is sign that sellers got exhausted and that buyers may come into the play.

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The focus now shifts to FOMC meeting minutes tomorrow. Seems like the market is awaiting new information's before the next directional move .On the H4 time-frame I found that there is a bullish divergence on the Stochastic and MACD, which represents potential short-term rally. Upward targets are set at the price of 1.1270 and at the price of 1.1310. Both targets are based on the previous price action. As long as the EUR is trading above the 1.1180, I would watch for buying opportunities.

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July 9, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 09 juil 2019 Commentaire »

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Since February 28, the EURUSD pair has been moving within the prvious downside channel with slight bearish tendency.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1175 (a previous weekly bottom which has been holding prices above for some time.

On the highlighted period between (May 17th and June 5th), temporary bearish breakdown below 1.1175 was demonstrated on the chart.

This allowed further bearish decline to occur towards 1.1115 where significant bullish recovery brought the EUR/USD pair back above 1.1175 which stands as a prominent DEMAND level until now.

Initially, Temporary Bullish breakout above 1.1335 was demonstrated (suggesting a high probability bullish continuation pattern).

However, the EURUSD pair has failed to maintain that bullish persistence above 1.1320 and 1.1275 (the depicted price levels/zones). This was followed by a deeper bearish pullback towards 1.1175 where significant bullish price action was demonstrated on June 18.

The EURUSD looked overbought around 1.1400 facing a confluence of supply levels. Thus, a bearish pullback was initiated towards 1.1275 as expected in a previous article.

Further Bearish decline below 1.1275 enhanced a deeper bearish decline towards 1.1235 (the lower limit of the newly-established bullish channel) which failed to provide enough bullish support for the EUR/USD.

The current bearish breakdown below 1.1235 invites further bearish momentum to push towards 1.1175 where recent price action should be considered.

Bullish price action should be anticipated near the price zone of 1.1185-1.1175 where a valid Intraday BUY position can be considered. Initial bullish target would be located around 1.1230.

Trade recommendations :

For Intraday traders, a valid SELL entry was previously suggested at retesting of the broken key-zone around 1.1235.

Initial Target levels to be located around 1.1200 and 1.1175.

Stop Loss should be lowered to 1.1240 to offset the associated risk.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*U.S. Job Openings Edge Down To 7.32 Million In May

Trading 09 juil 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Job Openings Edge Down To 7.32 Million In May


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Capital Economics: Malaysia To Cut Interest Rates Soon

Trading 09 juil 2019 Commentaire »

Malaysia's central bank is likely to cut interest rates further soon as growth is set to slow in the second half of the year, Capital Economics said Tuesday.

The Bank Negara Malaysia left its key interest rate unchanged at 3 percent on Tuesday, in line with economists' expectations, after slashing it by a quarter-point in May due to several downside risks.

The reduction in May was the first cut since July 2016. The bank had hiked the rate by 25 basis points in January 2018.

The bank has kept the door open to further easing given the poor outlook for the economy and the weaker outlook for exports due to a slowing global economy, Capital Economics economist Gareth Leather said.

The economist also expects revenues from the oil sector to drop as commodity prices are likely to decline further over the coming year.

Capital Economics expects Malaysia's economic growth to slow to just 4 percent this year from 4.7 percent in 2018.

The BNM left the growth forecast for this year unchanged at 4.3-4.8 percent, while stressing that downside risks to the economy are rising.

Meanwhile, inflation is expected to pick up in coming months as the dampening effect of last year's GST reduction fades. However, price growth is forecast to remain modest around 1 percent in the second half of the year, Leather said.

"We are sticking with our forecast that interest rates will be cut by a further 25bp later this year, most likely at the BNM's next meeting in September," the economist said.


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July 9, 2019 : GBP/USD demonstrating early bullish rejection around 1.2444.

Trading 09 juil 2019 Commentaire »

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Since May 17, the previous downside movement within the depicted bearish channel came to a pause allowing the recent sideway consolidation range to be established between 1.2750 - 1.2550 with a prominent key-level around 1.2650.

On June 4, temporary bullish consolidations above 1.2650 were demonstrated for a few trading sessions.

However, the price level of 1.2750 (consolidation range upper limit) has prevented further bullish advancement.

Moreover, early signs of bearish rejection have been manifested (Head & Shoulders reversal pattern with neckline located around 1.2650).

Bearish breakdown below 1.2650 (reversal pattern neckline) confirmed the reversal pattern with bearish projection target located at 1.2550, 1.2510 and 1.2450.

Short-term outlook remains under bearish pressure as long as the market keeps moving below 1.2650 (mid-range key-level and neckline of the reversal pattern).

In general, the recent Bearish breakdown below 1.2570 - 1.2550 (the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range) confirms a trend reversal into bearish on the intermediate term.

Immediate bearish decline was expected towards 1.2505.

Further bearish decline was expected to pursue towards 1.2450 (the lower limit of the current movement channel) where early signs of bullish rejection are being manifested.

On the other hand, any bullish pullback towards 1.2550-1.2570 should be considered as a valid SELL signal for Intraday traders.

An Intraday bullish position can ONLY be considered if the current bullish rejection persists above the price level of 1.2480. Intraday bullish target would be located around 1.2550-1.2570.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can have a valid SELL Entry anywhere around the lower limit of the broken consolidation range near (1.2550-1.2570).

T/P levels to be located around 1.2490 and 1.2440.

S/L should be placed above 1.2620.

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Gold 07.09.2019 – Potential retracement before new wave down

Trading 09 juil 2019 Commentaire »

The Gold did test and reject of the swing low at $1.386 and major low at $1.381 was missed by few ticks, which is sign for me that got temporally exhausted there. Short-term trend is still bearish and I would watch for selling opportunities on the rallies.

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The focus now shifts to FOMC meeting minutes tomorrow. Seems like the market is awaiting new information's before the next directional move .On the daily time-frame I found that there is bear cross on the Stochastic and MACD, which represents short-term downtrend. Fibonacci expansion target is set at the price of $1380 (FE 100%) and then $1.346 (FE 161.8%). The 4H time-frame is showing possibility that Gold may retrace a bit before potential new wave down. The good resistance level is set at the price of $1.405-$1.410 (Fibonacci confluence). As long as the Gold is trading below the $1.410, I would watch for selling opportunities.

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