Trump Says Trade Talks With China Are "Back On Track"

Trading 29 juin 2019 Commentaire »

After trade talks between the U.S. and China broke down last month, President Donald Trump said negotiations are "back on track" following his highly anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on Saturday.

Trump told reporters after the meeting that the sit-down with Xi was "excellent, as good as it was going to be" and "we're right back on track."

"We'll see what happens" Trump added, with the U.S. and China set to restart stalled negotiations in an effort to settle their long-running trade dispute.

In his closing G20 press conference, Trump revealed that he will not follow through on threats to raise tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports "at least for the time being."

"We won't be adding an additional tremendous amount -- we have $350 billion left that could be tariffed, taxed -- we're not going to be doing that," Trump said.

The president also suggested that the U.S. would allow American companies to sell products to Chinese tech giant Huawei that do not pose national security concerns.

"A lot of people are surprised we send and we sell to Huawei a tremendous amount of product that goes into a lot of the various things that they make, and I said that that's OK, that we will keep selling that product," Trump said.

In return for holding off on tariffs and loosening restrictions on sales to Huawei, Trump said China has agreed to purchase large quantities of U.S. agricultural products.

Trump noted that existing tariffs on Chinese imports will remain in place, suggesting the U.S.-China trade dispute could still act as headwind to the global economy unless the conflict is eventually resolved.


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EURUSD vulnerable to more downside at the start of next week

Trading 29 juin 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD remains in a medium-term bullish trend after bottoming at 1.11 and started making higher highs and higher lows. The break above 1.1350 was an important bullish sign and this back test is of similar importance.

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Green line - support trend line

Red rectangle - support area

EURUSD has tested this past week the 1.1350 level several times. Breaking below it will open the way for a move towards 1.13-1.1270. Bulls do not want to see price break below the green trend line otherwise our medium-term trend reversal signal will be canceled. So far price action is bullish because the RSI is getting relieved from overbought levels while price mainly moves sideways. Price remains above the previous high as this is now support. Resistance is at 1.14 10 and if broken I expect price to continue higher towards our longer-term target of the wedge break out at 1.17.

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Gold remains vulnerable to a move lower towards $1,380-70

Trading 29 juin 2019 Commentaire »

Gold bulls tried to recapture the short-term resistance area of $1,415-25 but where not strong enough. Gold price remains close to the $1,400 resistance and I believe that next week it is more probable to break it and move towards $1,380.

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Blue line - bearish divergence

Green line - trend line support

Red rectangle -support area

Blue rectangle - target if support breaks

Gold price should move towards the green trend line support and the blue rectangle if price breaks below $1,400. So far the medium-term trend remains bullish but in the short-term we see some warning signs by the RSI. The bearish divergence that we warned last week so far has brought weakness in price and a short-term reversal. This reversal is most probably not finished and the pull back could reach the green trend line support. Key short-term support at $1,400. Resistance at $1,415-25.

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Dollar Subdued As Traders Await G20 News

Trading 29 juin 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar recovered from early weakness but eased subsequently and stayed in a tight range on Friday as traders continued to make cautious moves, as they awaited the outcome of the G20 summit in Japan.

Traders stayed wary of making significant moves ahead to the highly anticipated meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the summit.

Trump and Xi are not expected to come out of the meeting with a finalized trade deal, but markets are looking for signs of progress toward kick-starting the stalled negotiations between the two economic superpowers.

Hopes about an interest rate cut continued to weigh on greenback. Though key officials from the Federal Reserve, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have more or less ruled out a steep cut in rates, analysts are expecting a cut of at least 25 basis points in July.

The dollar index, which advanced to 96.30 from a low of 96.02 it touched a little before noon, was last seen hovering around 96.20, little changed from previous close.

Against the euro, the dollar was up marginally at 1.1368.

The sterling was stronger against the greenback, gaining 0.17% at $1.2693.

The Japanese yen weakened to 107.86 a dollar, down from 107.79 yen overnight.

The loonie and Swiss franc were up marginally against the greeback, at 1.3092 and 0.9674, respectively. The Aussie was up 0.17% at 0.7021.

In economic news, data released by the Commerce Department showed U.S. personal income climbed by 0.5% in May. Economists had expected income to rise by 0.3%. As expected, personal spending rose by 0.4% in May following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in April.

Revised data released by the University of Michigan on Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated by slightly less than initially estimated in the month of June.

The report said the consumer sentiment index for June was upwardly revised to 98.2 from 97.9, although it remains below the final May reading of 100.0. Economists had expected the index to be upwardly revised to 98.0.

Chicago-area business activity unexpectedly contracted in the month of June, falling below 50 for the first time since January 2017, according to a report released by MNI Indicators on Friday. The Chicago business barometer tumbled to 49.7 in June after rising to 54.2 in May. Economists had expected the index to edge down to 53.1.


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Oil Settles Sharply Lower, But Posts Strong Weekly & Monthly Gains

Trading 28 juin 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures settled notably lower on Friday, with traders trimming down some positions as they looked ahead to the meeting of the U.S. and Chinese Presidents, and the decision of the OPEC and its allies on production levels.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for August ended down $0.96, or 1.6%, at $58.47 a barrel.

On Thursday, WTI crude oil futures ended up $0.05, at $59.43 a barrel, after having climbed up 2.7% a session earlier.

WTI oil futures gained 1.8% in the week, and more than 9% in June.

The U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet on the sidelines of the G20 summit on Saturday. There is some optimism that the meeting will help reignite trade talks between the two countries.

It is hoped that Trump and Xi will reach some sort of agreement that would avoid the imposition of additional tariffs on each other's products.

The recent rally in oil prices was due to a much larger than expected drop in U.S. crude inventories last week and an escalation in geopolitical tensions following the downing of a U.S. drone by Iran's Islamist Revolutionary Guard Corps and the subsequent tougher sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Tehran.


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Treasuries Close Roughly Flat Ahead Of Trump-Xi Meeting

Trading 28 juin 2019 Commentaire »

After recovering from an early move to the downside, treasuries showed a lack of direction for much of the rest of the trading session on Friday.

Bond prices spent the bulk of the day lingering near the unchanged line before closing roughly flat. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, edged down by less than a basis point to 2.00 percent.

The choppy trading on the day came as traders seemed reluctant to make any significant moves ahead of a highly anticipated meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Trump and Xi are not expected to come out of the meeting with a finalized trade deal, but traders will be looking for signs of progress toward kick-starting the stalled negotiations between the two economic superpowers.

Traders were also digesting some mixed economic data, including a report from the Commerce Department showing personal income increased by more than expected in the month of May.

Personal income climbed by 0.5 percent in May, matching the advance seen in April. Economists had expected income to rise by 0.3 percent.

The report also said personal spending rose by 0.4 percent in May following an upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in April. The spending growth matched economist estimates.

Meanwhile, a separate report from report MNI Indicators unexpectedly showed a contraction in Chicago-area business activity in the month of June.

MNI Indicators said its Chicago business barometer tumbled to 49.7 in June after rising to 54.2 in May, with a reading below 50 indicating a contraction in regional business activity. Economists had expected the index to edge down to 53.1.

With the much steeper than expected decline, the Chicago businesses barometer dropped below 50 for the first time since January of 2017.

Reaction to the outcome of this weekend's Trump-Xi meeting is likely to drive trading early next week, overshadowing reports on manufacturing activity and construction spending.


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Gold Futures Settle Higher, Log Best Monthly Returns In 3 Years

Trading 28 juin 2019 Commentaire »

Gold futures edged higher on Friday with traders picking up the safe haven asset amid rising hopes the Fed will cut interest rates sometime soon.

Gold's uptick was also due to rising worries about geopolitical tensions and trade-related issues.

The focus was on G20 summit, and more precisely, on the upcoming meeting between the U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The meeting may not bring about an instant solution to the trade crisis between the two largest economies in the world, but expectations are that the discussions would help in resumption of trade talks.

Gold futures for August ended up $1.70, or 0.1%, at $1,413.70 an ounce, the highest settlement in six years.

Gold futures gained over 7.7% in June, the best monthly returns in about three years. For the week, gold futures added about 1%.

Silver futures for September ended up $0.047, at $15.341 an ounce, while Copper futures for September settled at $2.7135 per pound, down $0.0035 from previous close.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow maintained his threat to impose new tariffs on Chinese goods if talks do not end in progress. Kudlow also said there are no preconditions set for the U.S.-China trade meeting.

The clarification came after Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that China President Xi is expected to present the U.S. trade coalition with a set of terms, including the removal of restrictions on the sale of U.S. technology to Huawei before Beijing will settle the trade dispute.

Lingering tensions between the U.S. and Iran, Trump's earlier comments about the security relationship with Japan and his demand that India should withdraw "very high tariffs" on U.S. goods also boosted appeal for safe-haven bullion.


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June 28, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 28 juin 2019 Commentaire »

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Since May 17, the depicted sideway consolidation range has been established between 1.2750 - 1.2570.

On June 4, temporary bullish breakout above 1.2650 was demonstrated for a few trading sessions.

This enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.2750 (consolidation range upper limit) which has been preventing further bullish advancement up till now.

On June 14, recent temporary bearish decline was demonstrated below 1.2600 hindering the mentioned bullish scenario for some time before bullish breakout could be re-achieved last week.

For the bullish side of the market to remain dominant, bullish persistence above 1.2750 (consolidation range upper limit ) should be achieved by the bulls.

Bullish breakout above 1.2750 is mandatory to bring further bullish advancement towards 1.2840 and 1.2900.

Recently, the GBP/USD failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above 1.2750. Instead, early signs of bearish rejection have been manifested (Head & Shoulders reversal pattern with neckline located around 1.2650).

A quick bearish pullback towards 1.2650 was expected shortly.

Bearish breakdown below 1.2650 (reversal pattern neckline) confirms the reversal pattern with bearish projection target located at 1.2510.

However, For conservative traders, SELL positions shouldn't be considered around the current price levels unless bearish breakout below 1.2570 becomes confirmed on higher timeframes (which is low probability).

On the other hand, a bullish position is preferred around the current price levels. Bullish breakout above 1.2750 is mandatory as a valid BUY signal.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders can have a valid BUY Entry upon bullish breakout above 1.2750.

T/P levels to be located around 1.2840, 1.2900 and 1.2940. S/L should be placed below 1.2680.

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Gold 06.28.2019 – Key sell zone – resistance got protected

Trading 28 juin 2019 Commentaire »

Industry news:

"A softening in the core PCE deflator earlier this year was a big factor in the Fed's shift to a more accommodative stance. That key measure of inflation rose to 1.6% today and the sequential increase in recent months suggests modestly firmer footing in Q2, though not enough to dissuade the Fed from cutting rates."

Trading recommendation:

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Gold did hit and then rejected of the strong resistance at the price of $1.422, which is sign that sellers are still present and there is not enough buying power for new highs on the Gold.

Red rectangle – Important resistance ($1.423)

Green rectangle- Support 1 ($1.400)

Green rectangle – Support 2 ($1.380)

Gold has been trading sideways in the well defined trading range between the price of $1.423 (resistance) and $1.380 (support). The price is near the resistance and you should watch for potential selling opportunities. Stochastic oscillator is flipping down and that is another good sign that there is potential for more downward movement. As long as the Gold is trading below the $1.437, I would watch for selling opportunities on the rallies.

Sell zone – $1.423

Profit zones – $1.400-$1.380

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U.S. Consumer Sentiment Drops Slightly Less Than Initially Estimated In June

Trading 28 juin 2019 Commentaire »

Revised data released by the University of Michigan on Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated by slightly less than initially estimated in the month of June.

The report said the consumer sentiment index for June was upwardly revised to 98.2 from 97.9, although it remains below the final May reading of 100.0. Economists had expected the index to be upwardly revised to 98.0.

"June's small overall decline was entirely due to households with incomes in the top third of the distribution, who more frequently mentioned the negative impact of tariffs," said Surveys of Consumers chief economist Richard Curtin.

He added, "Most of the June slippage was concentrated in prospects for the national economy, with the unemployment rate expected to inch upward instead of drifting downward in the year ahead."

The monthly pullback by the consumer sentiment index came as the index of consumer expectations slid to 89.3 in June after jumping to 93.5 in May.

On the other hand, the report said the current economic conditions index edged up to 111.9 in June after tumbling to 110.0 in the previous month.

Inflation expectations showed a notable decline during the month, with one-year inflation expectations falling to 2.7 percent from 2.9 percent and five-year inflation expectations slumping to 2.3 percent from 2.6 percent.

"While more negative trade news will act to decrease consumer spending, the persistent overall strength in consumer confidence is still consistent with growth of real personal consumption expenditures by 2.5% during the next twelve months," Curtin said.


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