Crude Oil Futures Settle Modestly Higher

Trading 20 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices edged higher on Monday as prospects of a likely fall in supply amid an escalation in tensions in the Middle East and on OPEC's indication that it is likely to maintain production cuts for some more time.

Meanwhile, the likelihood of a drop in energy demand due to the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China limited crude oil's gains.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for June ended up $0.34, or 0.54%, at $63.10 a barrel.

Brent crude oil futures for June was down $0.24 at $71.97 a barrel around mid afternoon, after having touched a high of $73.40, a near four-week high, earlier in the day.

According to reports, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday that OPEC and allied oil producers are in favor of driving down crude inventories "gently".

United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei reportedly said early on Sunday that producers were capable of filling any market gap and that relaxing supply cuts was not the right decision.

According to OPEC data, oil inventories in the developed world were up by 3.3 million barrels month-on-month in March. That was nearly 23 million barrels above the five year average.

At the meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee in Jeddah over the weekend, the members did not make any solid recommendations and decided to review production cuts during their meeting in Vienna next month.

Tensions in the Middle East have escalated after reports poured in on Sunday about a rocket launch into Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone less than a mile away from the U.S. embassy.

"If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran. Never threaten the United States again!," Trump tweeted subsequently.

Meanwhile, a Saudi Arabian diplomat said his country doesn't want to go to war with Iran but would defend itself after two Saudi oil tankers were targeted by acts of sabotage off the coast of the United Arab Emirates last week.

Mounting worries about U.S.-China trade war following last week's decision of the U.S. government to blacklist Chinese technology giant Huawei and ban the company from buying components and technology from US firms without prior approval of the US government have raised concerns about energy demand.


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Treasuries Move Modestly Lower Despite Lingering Trade Concerns

Trading 20 mai 2019 Commentaire »

After initially showing a lack of direction, treasuries moved modestly lower over the course of the trading session on Monday.

Bond prices drifted lower as the morning progressed and remained stuck in the red throughout the afternoon. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price rose by 2.3 basis points to 2.416 percent.

The weakness among treasuries came as bond traders shrugged off concerns about the escalating U.S.-China trade dispute even after Google suspended some of its business with Chinese tech giant Huawei.

Google has cut Huawei off from business involving the transfer of hardware, software and technical services, complying with an order by President Donald Trump blocking the sale or transfer of U.S. technology to Huawei.

"We are complying with the order and reviewing the implications," a Google spokesperson said, noting services such as Google Play and the security protections from Google Play Protect will continue to function on existing Huawei devices.

Trading activity was somewhat, however, with a lack of major U.S. economic data may keeping some traders on the sidelines.

Reports on new and existing home sales and durable goods orders are likely to attract attention in the coming days along with the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting.

News on the trade front is likely to remain in the spotlight on Tuesday, potentially overshadowing a report on existing home sales in the month of April.


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Gold Futures Settle Marginally Higher

Trading 20 mai 2019 Commentaire »

After falling to a fresh 2-week low earlier in the session, gold prices edged higher on Monday after equities lost ground on trade war jitters and the dollar exhibited some weakness.

However, with recent economic data such as jobless claims, consumer sentiment, housing starts and Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity suggesting that the U.S. economy is in good shape, the yellow metal's uptick was just marginal.

The dollar index, which advanced to 98.04, retreated subsequently to 97.96, losing about 0.06%.

Gold futures for June ended up $1.60, or about 1%, at $1,277.30 an ounce.

On Friday, gold futures for June settled down $10.50, or 0.8%, at $1,275.70 an ounce.

Silver futures for July ended up $0.057, at $14.445 an ounce, while Copper futures for July ended at $2.7260 per pound, down $0.0125 from previous close.

Global stocks weakened on Monday, weighed down by Google's decision to suspend business with Chinese technology major Huawei. German chipmaker Infineon Technologies suspended shipments to Huawei.

The move by these two companies follow last week's decision of the Trump administration to blacklist the Chinese firm and ban the company from buying components and technology from US firms without prior approval from the US government.

Lingering concerns about tensions in the Middle East too supported gold's uptick. U.S. President Donald Trump has served a new warning to Iran, tweeting that if the country wanted to fight, that would be Iran's "official end".

Traders largely made cautious moves today, looking ahead to the U.S. Federal Reserve's release of minutes from its last meeting.

The Fed minutes is likely to provide clues about the central bank's likely stance on interest rates for the rest of the year.


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Bitcoin analysis for May 20, 2019

Trading 20 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin has been trading upwards in past 24h but the BTC hit overbought condition. Watch for selling opportunities.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found that there is the buying climax in the background followed by the up-thrust (reversal bar), which is sign that buying at this stage looks risky. Also, key swing high at the price of $8.312 is still we defended and as long as this swing high is holding, we will watch for selling opportunities. Additionally, we found that breakout of the support trendline (green trendline).

Upward references are set:

Swing high – $8.225

Major swing high – $8.312

Downward references are set at:

Swing low – $7.030

Swing low 2– $6.820

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Technical analysis for EURUSD for May 20, 2019

Trading 20 mai 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD remains in a bearish medium-term trend but shows signs of a possible bounce back towards 1.12. Trend remains bearish as long as price is below 1.1230-1.1260 but we find horizontal support from previous lows at the current trading area of 1.1150-1.1160.

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Red rectangle - horizontal support area

Red line - major trend line resistance

EURUSD is bouncing off the 1.1150 support area as shown by the red rectangle in the 4 hour chart above. EURUSD has made an important low back early May at current levels that lead to a move towards 1.1260. If this support area holds we could see a bounce towards 1.12-1.1230 where we find the first important resistance levels. Bulls need to break above 1,1260 in order to regain control of the trend. Until then every bounce is considered selling opportunity. Failure to hold above 1.1150 will lead price below 1.11.

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Gold technical analysis for May 20, 2019

Trading 20 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price has made a deep pull back from $1,302 just right on top of the major support level of $1,276 we have been talking about over the last few weeks. Gold price has stopped its decline and this gives hopes to bulls.

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Green line - major trend line support

Blue neckline - short-term support

Black line -trend line resistance

Gold price is touching the green trend line support for the fifth time. Will we see another strong move higher? As we mentioned in previous posts, as long as Gold price is above $1,276 bulls will have hopes for a move towards 2019 highs and higher. However first they will have to recapture $1,300. So far we have a failed attempt and rejection at $1,300 which is a bearish sign. If this bearish sign is combined with a break below the green trend line support, we should expect Gold price to move lower towards $1,250.

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May 20, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 20 mai 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

Since then, the EURUSD pair has been moving within the depicted channel with slight bearish tendency.

Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) then 1.1175 (100% Fibonacci level).

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed on April 23.

That's why, the mentioned price zone around 1.1235-1.1250 has turned into supply-zone to be watched for bearish rejection.

Shortly-after, the market has failed to sustain bearish pressure below the price Level of 1.1175 during the previous weeks' consolidations.

That's why, another bullish pullback was expected to occur towards the price zone of 1.1230-1.1250 where significant bearish pressure was expected to exist there.

Since May 3, the EURUSD pair has been maintained above the depicted key-zone (1.1175) until Friday when a bearish breakout below 1.1175 was achieved.

This enhances further bearish decline towards 1.1115 provided that no bullish breakout above 1.1190 is demonstrated on the H4 chart.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders who were advised to have a SELL entry around the supply zone (1.1235-1.1250) should lower their S/L towards 1.1190 to secure more profits.

Remaining Target level should be projected towards 1.1115.

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U.S. Dollar Reverses From Early Highs Against Most Majors

Trading 20 mai 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar declined against its most major counterparts in the European session on Monday, after strengthening in the previous session on the back of strong economic data as well as continued trade worries.

U.S.-China trade worries continued after Google suspended some of its business with Chinese tech giant Huawei.

Google has cut Huawei off from business involving the transfer of hardware, software and technical services, complying with an order by President Donald Trump blocking the sale or transfer of U.S. technology to Huawei.

The U.S. consumer sentiment hit a 15-year high in May on improving confidence over the economy's outlook, data showed Friday.

Investors await data on new and existing home sales and durable goods orders as well as the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting this week for clues about the economy.

The currency was higher against its major rivals in the Asian session, excepting the pound.

The greenback depreciated to a 4-day low of 1.0081 against the franc, from a high of 1.0121 hit at 2:00 am ET. If the greenback falls further, 0.99 is likely seen as its next support level.

The greenback edged lower to 109.81 against the yen, following near a 2-week high of 110.31 seen at 9:00 pm ET. The greenback is seen finding support around the 107.00 level.

Final data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed that Japan's industrial production declined less-than-estimated in March,.

Industrial production fell a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent month-on-month in March, smaller than the 0.9 percent decrease initially estimated.

After rising to more than a 2-week high of 1.1151 against the euro at 1:30 am ET, the greenback reversed direction with the pair trading at 1.1165. The greenback is likely to test support around the 1.13 region.

The greenback hovered at a 4-day low of 1.3423 against the loonie, compared to 1.3462 hit late New York last week. Next key support for the greenback is seen around the 1.32 level.

On the flip side, the greenback rose to 1.2721 against the pound, after falling to 1.2757 at 4:00 am ET. The currency is poised to target resistance around the 1.24 mark. Data from the property website Rightmove showed that UK house prices increased marginally in May.

House prices edged up 0.1 percent from the last year, reversing a 0.1 percent drop in April. Meanwhile, asking price of a home in London declined 2.5 percent annually to GBP 621,589.

In today's events, at 12:30 pm ET, the Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent will speak at Imperial College Business School in London.

Federal Reserve Governor Richard Clarida will deliver a speech about the Federal Reserve's policy strategy, tools, and communication practices at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at 1:05 pm ET.


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EUR./USD analysis for May 20, 2019

Trading 20 mai 2019 Commentaire »

EUR/USD has been trading downwards as we expected. Anyway, we expect potential rally on the EUR.

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According to the H1 time-frame, we found that there is the breakout of the downward supply trendline, which is sign of the potential rally. We also found a rejection of the 20EMA at 1.1161, which is signal of the increase in demand for the EUR. Watch for potential buying opportunities with the targets at 1.1179 and 1.1182.

Upward references are set:

Swing high – 1.1180

Swing low acting like resistance – 1.1182

Downward references are set at:

Intraday swing low – 1.1156

Swing low – 1.1150

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Analysis of Gold for May 20, 2019

Trading 20 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of $1.273. We still expecting more downside but we expect rally first.

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According to the 30M time-frame, we found that there is the breakout of the downward channel and successful re-test, which is sign of the potential rally. We also found a strong bullish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign for the potential rally. Our advice is to watch for buying opportunities with the targets at $1.284 and $1.287.

Upward references are set:

Swing high – $1.284

Major high – $1.287

Downward references are set at:

Intraday swing low - $1.274

Swing low - $1.273

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