Dollar Exhibits Strength On Upbeat Economic Data

Trading 16 mai 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar rose to near 3-week high on Thursday as its safe haven appeal and upbeat U.S. economic data aided its advance against most of its major rivals.

Worries about a no-deal Brexit weighed on Pound Sterling, while caution ahead of next week's European parliamentary elections, uncertainty about trade deal and widening euro area trade deficit rendered the euro subdued.

The dollar index rose to 97.88, gaining in strength as the day progressed. It was last seen moving around 97.85, up nearly 0.3% from previous close.

Data from Eurostat showed that the euro area trade surplus declined in March on higher imports.

The trade surplus fell to a seasonally adjusted EUR 17.9 billion from EUR 20.6 billion in February. The surplus was also below the forecast of EUR 19.4 billion.

The euro fetched $1.1175, down 0.25%, compared to previous close of $1.1204.

Sterling was under pressure due largely to Brexit related issues. Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal is due to be put before the parliament one more time next month. May has reportedly held talks with senior party MPs who are said to be asking her to set a date for her resignation.

The dollar was up nearly 0.4%, at $1.2798 a sterling.

The Japanese currency was trading at 109.83 a dollar, weakening from around 109.60 a dollar.

The loonie and Swiss franc were down 0.17% and 0.13%, with the respective USD-CAD and USD-CHF pairs trading at 1.3461 and 1.0100.

The Aussie was down more than 0.5% against the dollar, at 0.6892.

The Chinese yuan dropped to a fresh low for 2019 against the greenback as trade worries lingered.

In U.S. economic news, the Labor Department data said initial jobless claims slid to 212,000 in the week ended May 11th, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 228,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to dip to 220,000.

A separate report from the Commerce Department showed a substantial increase in new residential construction in the month of April.

The Commerce Department said housing starts surged up by 5.7% to an annual rate of 1.235 million in April after climbing by 1.7% to a revised rate of 1.168 million in March.

Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, also rose by 0.6% to a rate of 1.296 million in April after edging down by 0.2% to a revised rate of 1.288 million in March.

The pace of growth in regional manufacturing activity saw a significant acceleration in May, according to a report from The Philadelphia Federal Reserve.

The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity surged up to 16.6 in May after falling to 8.5 in April, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 9.0.

The jump by the headline index was partly due to a significant increase by the shipments index, which spiked to 27.6 in May from 18.4 in April.


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Technical analysis of EURUSD for May 16, 2019

Trading 16 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Bulls made another try today at the 1.1230 resistance but price got rejected again. EURUSD is now challenging 1.1170 support. Bulls need to act now otherwise we should expect a move towards 1.11 and lower. Trend remains bearish as long as price is below 1.1260.

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Black line - trend line support

Blue rectangle - resistance

Red line - upper channel boundary resistance

EURUSD continues to make lower lows and lower highs. EURUSD is challenging important short-term support and could very well break it and move towards 1.11 and lower. Resistance is at 1,1230 and next at 1.1260. Price continues to trade inside the medium-term trend bearish channel. Trend remains bearish.

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Technical analysis of Gold for May 16, 2019

Trading 16 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price pulled back below $1,290 after reaching and testing the resistance of $1,300. As we said in previous posts Gold price made an important break above $1,288 but we also needed to keep an eye on $1,300. So far Gold shows reversal signs after bottoming at $1,266 but bulls will need to defend $1,276.

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Green line - support trend line

Blue horizontal line - neckline support

Black line - short-term resistance

Gold price is turning back below the black trend line that it recently broke upwards. Gold has support at $1,276 and this is the most important level to watch. Breaking below it will open the way for a move below $1,266 towards $1,250-30 area. If Gold price holds above $1,280-76 and breaks $1,300 then we should expect Gold price to see at least the 2019 highs again.

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Gold Futures Settle Notably Lower As Equities, Dollar Rise

Trading 16 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices drifted notably lower on Thursday after riskier assets including equities moved up on upbeat U.S. economic data and fading worries about trade war.

The dollar's advance to a near 2-week high contributed as well to the yellow metal's decline.

The dollar index rose to 97.80, gaining over 0.25%.

Data from the Labor Department showed a bigger than expected drop in initial jobless claims and the report from the Commerce Department showed a substantial increase in housing starts.

Gold futures for June ended down $11.60, or 0.9%, at $1,286.20 an ounce.

On Wednesday, gold futures for June ended up $1.50, or about 0.1%, at $1,297.80 an ounce.

Silver futures for July ended down $0.273, at $14.539 an ounce, while Copper futures for July settled at $2.7480 per pound, gaining $0.0050 for the session.

The Labor Department report said initial jobless claims slid to 212,000 in the week ended May 11th, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 228,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to dip to 220,000.

A separate report from the Commerce Department showed a substantial increase in new residential construction in the month of April.

The Commerce Department said housing starts surged up by 5.7% to an annual rate of 1.235 million in April after climbing by 1.7% to a revised rate of 1.168 million in March.

Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, also rose by 0.6% to a rate of 1.296 million in April after edging down by 0.2% to a revised rate of 1.288 million in March.

The pace of growth in regional manufacturing activity saw a significant acceleration in May, according to a report from The Philadelphia Federal Reserve.

Worries about trade war subsided a bit after the U.S. decided to delay imposing tariffs on imports of cars from EU for six months.


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May 16, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 16 mai 2019 Commentaire »

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On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the newly-established bearish movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel was located.

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish with intermediate-term bearish targets projected towards 1.2900 and 1.2850.

On April 26, a bullish pullback was executed towards the price levels around 1.3000 (the bottom of March 29) where bearish rejection was demonstrated.

Hence, a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern was being demonstrated on the H4 chart with neckline located around 1.2985.

As anticipated, The price zone of 1.3030-1.3060 turned to become a prominent supply-zone where a valid bearish entry was offered by the end of last week's consolidations.

Bearish persistence below 1.2980 (Neckline of the reversal pattern) enhanced further bearish decline.

Initial bearish Targets were already reached around 1.2900-1.2870 (the backside of the broken channel) which is failing to provide any immediate bullish support for the GBPUSD pair.

Trade Recommendations:

For those who had a valid SELL entry around the price levels of (1.3035-1.3070). It's already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to 1.2860 to secure some profits.

Conservative traders should wait for another bullish pullback towards 1.2870-1.2905 (newly-established supply zone) to look for valid sell entries. S/L should be placed above 1.2950.

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Dollar Higher As Building Permits Surge, Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Drop

Trading 16 mai 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar spiked up against its key counterparts in the European session on Thursday, as U.S. weekly jobless claims fell more than expected last week, while building permits exceeded forecasts in April, easing worries about a slowdown in economy.

Data from the Labor Department showed that first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits dropped more than expected in the week ended May 11.

The report said initial jobless claims slid to 212,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 228,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to dip to 220,000.

New residential construction in the U.S. showed a substantial increase in the month of April, according to a report by the Commerce Department.

The Commerce Department said housing starts surged up by 5.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.235 million in April after climbing by 1.7 percent to a revised rate of 1.168 million in March.

Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed growth in Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity showed a significant acceleration in the month of May.

The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity jumped to 16.6 in May after falling to 8.5 in April, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 9.0.

The reports also reduced worries about a rate cut by the Fed by year-end.

Investors cheered upbeat earnings results from Cisco and Walmart that overshadowed concerns about the U.S. government's decision to blacklist Huawei, in an indication of heightened trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

The U.S. treasury yields also spiked up, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rising to 2.4 percent.

The currency held steady against its major counterparts in the Asian session, barring the yen.

The greenback added 0.5 percent to a 3-month high of 1.2794 against the pound, from a low of 1.2852 hit at 12:30 am ET. The pair had ended Wednesday's trading at 1.2840. Further uptrend may take the greenback to a resistance around the 1.26 level.

The greenback was up 0.3 percent at a 3-day high of 1.0107 against the franc, after having dropped to 1.0074 at 3:30 am ET. At yesterday's close, the pair was valued at 1.0087. On the upside, 1.03 is likely seen as its next resistance level.

The greenback was 0.3 percent higher at 1.1185 against the euro, following a low of 1.1224 touched at 5:00 am ET. The greenback had finished Wednesday's trading at 1.1200 versus the euro. Next key resistance for the greenback is seen around the 1.09 region.

Data from Eurostat showed that the euro area trade surplus declined in March on higher imports.

The trade surplus fell to a seasonally adjusted EUR 17.9 billion from EUR 20.6 billion in February. The surplus was also below the forecast of EUR 19.4 billion.

The greenback appreciated to 109.84 against the yen, its highest since May 13, and recorded a 0.5 percent uptick from a low of 109.34 seen at 9:30 pm ET. The pair had closed deals at 109.60 on Wednesday. Should the greenback continues its uptrend, 111.00 may be seen as its next resistance level.

Data from the Bank of Japan showed that Japan producer prices rose 0.3 percent on month in April - unchanged from the previous two months.

On a yearly basis, producer prices climbed 1.2 percent - easing from 1.3 percent in the previous month.

The greenback rose back to 0.6905 against the aussie, edging closer to pierce over a 4-month high of 0.6892 registered at 9:30 pm ET. The aussie-greenback pair was quoted at 0.6928 when it ended deals on Wednesday. The greenback is seen finding resistance around the 0.67 level.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that Australia's jobless rate came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.2 percent in April.

That was above forecasts for 5.0 percent and up from the upwardly revised 5.1 percent in March.

The U.S. currency rebounded to 0.6557 against the kiwi, after falling to a 2-day low of 0.6583 at 5:00 am ET. The currency had already set an 8-day high of 0.6545 at 2:00 am ET. The greenback was worth 0.6564 per kiwi at yesterday's close. The greenback is likely to challenge resistance around the 0.64 level, if it rallies again.

Following a decline to a 6-day low of 1.3401 against the loonie at 6:15 am ET, the greenback staged a modest recovery to 1.3432. Continuation of the greenback's uptrend may take it to a resistance around the 1.37 region.


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Bitcoin analysis for May 16, 2019

Trading 16 mai 2019 Commentaire »

BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $7.895. Our bearish scenario is still valid and we expect more downside.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found that bullish momentum continues with decreasing, which is sign that buying looks risky. BTC is in extended run phase and potential pullback is expected. We found the bearish divergence on the slow Stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of the potential pullback incoming. The ADX is going down indicating potential weakness on BTC. Additionally, there is the fake breakout of the high $8.153. Watch for selling opportunities.

Upward references:

Swing high – $8.153

Downward:

Swing low – $7.590

Previous high became support - $7.413

Swing low - $6.834

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USD/JPY analysis for May 16, 2019

Trading 16 mai 2019 Commentaire »

USD/JPY has been trading upside. The price tested the level of 109.94 The breakout of 3-balance is present. Watch for buying opportunities.

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According to the Daily time-frame, we found that there is the breakout of the 3-day balance, which is sign that buyers too control from sellers. We also found bullish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator and rejection of the lower Keltner band at 109.07. Watch for buying opportunities with targets at 110.55 and 11.92.

Downwards references are set:

Balance high – 109.83

Daily low – 109.30

Upward references are set:

20 EMA – 110.56

Swing low acting like resistance – 110.92

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EUR./USD analysis for May 16, 2019

Trading 16 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold has been trading downwards in pat 8 hours. The price tested the level of 1.1172. We are still expecting more downside.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found that there is the breakout of the upward trendline (support) in the background, which is sign that there is change in trend dynamic from bullish to bearish. Additionally, we found successful re-test of the broken support at 1.1220, which is another sign of the weakness. Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the potential target at 1.1134.

Upward references are set:

Previous swing low became resistance – 1.1197

Daily swing high – 1.1224

Downward references are set:

Swing low – 1.1134

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Philly Fed Index Indicates Significantly Faster Growth In May

Trading 16 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Growth in Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity has seen a significant acceleration in the month of May, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia revealed in a report on Thursday.

The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity surged up to 16.6 in May after falling to 8.5 in April, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 9.0.

The jump by the headline index was partly due to a significant increase by the shipments index, which spiked to 27.6 in May from 18.4 in April.

The number of employees index also climbed to 18.2 in May from 14.7 in April, indicating a notable acceleration in the pace of job growth.

On the other hand, the new orders index tumbled to 11.0 in May from 15.7 in April, although the positive reading still indicates growth.

The report showed a mixed view of inflation, as the prices paid index rose to 23.1 in May from 21.6 in April, but the prices received index dropped to 17.5 from 20.0.

The Philly Fed said the diffusion index for future general activity inched up to 19.7 in May after falling to a three-year low of 19.1 in April.

The uptick by the index reflected an improvement in firms' forecast for future employment, with the future employment index jumping to 27.3 from 14.9.

A separate report released by the New York Fed on Wednesday said New York manufacturing activity has picked up significantly in the month of May.

The New York Fed said its general business conditions index jumped to 17.8 in May from 10.1 in April, while economists had expected the index to drop to 8.5.

With the unexpected increase, the New York Fed's general business conditions index reached its highest level since November of 2018.


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