Dollar Mostly Steady Against Major Rivals Amid Slew Of Data

Trading 15 mai 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar held steady on Wednesday, due largely to weak economic data out of China.

However, a pronounced upmove for the greenback remained elusive as trade concerns eased and due to disappointing retail sales and industrial production data.

The dollar index moved between 97.44 and 97.70, was up 0.07% at 97.58 by late afternoon.

The Chinese currency yuan dropped to near its lowest level in 2019, after data showed China's industrial output slowed to 5.4% in April (y-o-y)year to date after rising 8.5% a month earlier. The growth rate was forecast to slow moderately to 6.5%.

China's retail sales growth dropped 7.2% annually in April, from 8.7% a month ago. Economists had forecast sales to expand 8.6% in the month.

The yuan dropped to a low of 6.9177 a dollar before recovering to 6.9021, still down from previous close.

The Aussie lost ground as well against the greenback, losing about 0.28% at $0.6925 a unit.

The euro was down marginally at $1.1202. Data showing a 0.4% increase in German GDP in the first quarter and a report showing Eurozone GDP growth to have doubled in the first quarter supported euro.

News that U.S. President Donald Trump has decided to delay imposing tariffs on car imports from EU by six months supported euro's recovery.

Against Pound Sterling, the dollar gained nearly 0.5% with a unit of sterling fetching $1.2842, less than $1.2906 a day earlier.

The yen traded in a tight range slightly below the unchanged line against the greenback after recovering from a low of 109.71. It was last seen hovering around 109.60 a dollar.

Data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed an unexpected drop in U.S. retail sales in the month of April.

The report said retail sales edged down by 0.2% in April after spiking by an upwardly revised 1.7% in March. Economists had expected retail sales to rise by 0.2% compared to the 1.6% jump originally reported for the previous month.

A report released by the Federal Reserve said industrial production in the U.S. unexpectedly showed a notable decrease in the month of April, falling by 0.5%, following a revised 0.2% uptick in March.

Economists had expected production to come in unchanged compared to the 0.1% dip originally reported for the previous month.

Utilities output plunged by 3.5% in April and manufacturing output slumped by 0.5%, while mining output surged up by 1.6%, the report said.

The dollar was up slightly against Swiss franc, with the pair trading at 1.0089. Against the looni, it was down 0.14% at 1.3443.

Data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed an unexpected drop in U.S. retail sales in the month of April.

The report said retail sales edged down by 0.2% in April after spiking by an upwardly revised 1.7% in March. Economists had expected retail sales to rise by 0.2% compared to the 1.6% jump originally reported for the previous month.

A report released by the Federal Reserve said industrial production in the U.S. unexpectedly showed a notable decrease in the month of April, falling by 0.5%, following a revised 0.2% uptick in March.

Economists had expected production to come in unchanged compared to the 0.1% dip originally reported for the previous month.

Utilities output plunged by 3.5% in April and manufacturing output slumped by 0.5%, while mining output surged up by 1.6%, the report said.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Nothing new for Gold today

Trading 15 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price has made no progress today either to the upside or the downside. Gold price remains above the broken trend line resistance. Gold price has recently given a bullish sign, however price remains below the critical $1,300 level.

analytics5cdc74e85037f.png

Black line - resistance

Green line - support

Blue horizontal line- support

Gold price is trading above the blue neckline support at $1,276 and above the broken black downward sloping trend line resistance that was recently violated to the upside. Gold price shows signs of a reversal, but today's price action was very light as price mainly consolidated near its recent highs just below $1,300. The RSI has not reached overbought levels yet so I believe we might have more upside in Gold price.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil Futures End Higher Despite Jump In U.S. Crude Stockpiles

Trading 15 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures edged up marginally on Wednesday, with traders digesting data on U.S. crude inventory and reacting to weak retail sales and industrial production data from the U.S. and China, besides tracking news about recent sabotage of oil tankers near UAE.

The data from Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed an unexpected increase in U.S. crude stockpiles in the week to May 10.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for June ended up $0.24, at $62.02 a barrel.

On Tuesday, WTI crude futures for June ended up $0.74, or 1.2%, at $61.78 a barrel.

The data from EIA said crude stockpiles in the U.S. rose by 5.4 million barrels last week, beating expectations for a drop of 800,000 barrels.

Gasoline stockpiles were down by 1.1 million barrels in the week, while distillate fuel inventories increased by 84,000 barrels, the report from EIA said.

On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute released a report that showed U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 8.6 million barrels last week.

Meanwhile, a report from OPEC said 30.03 million barrels of crude oil per day were pumped in April, about 550,000 barrels per day less than in March, supported crude's uptick today.

The International Energy Agency in its monthly report has trimmed oil demand growth forecast for 2019 by 90,000 barrels a day to 1.3 million barrels, but said it expected the slower growth to be short-lived.


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Treasuries Pull Back Off Best Levels But Still Close Higher

Trading 15 mai 2019 Commentaire »

After moving notably higher early in the session, treasuries gave back ground but remained firmly positive during trading on Wednesday.

While bond prices pulled back off their best levels of the day, they still extended a recent upward trend. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 4 basis points to 2.379 percent.

The ten-year yield climbed off its intraday low of 2.361 percent but still ended the day at its lowest closing level in well over a month.

Treasuries initially benefited from economic concerns after a report from the Commerce Department showed an unexpected pullback in U.S. retail sales in the month of April.

The Commerce Department said retail sales edged down by 0.2 percent in April after spiking by an upwardly revised 1.7 percent in March.

Economists had expected retail sales to rise by 0.2 percent compared to the 1.6 percent jump originally reported for the previous month.

Excluding a steep drop in auto sales, retail sales inched up by 0.1 percent in April after surging up by 1.3 percent in March, although ex-auto sales had been expected to climb by 0.7 percent.

Economic worries were also generated in reaction to a Federal Reserve report showing an unexpected decrease in industrial production in April.

The Fed said industrial production fell by 0.5 percent in April following a revised 0.2 percent uptick in March. Economists had expected production to come in unchanged.

However, treasuries gave back some ground following reports President Donald Trump plans to delay imposing steep tariffs on auto imports.

Media reports indicated Trump plans to delay imposing the auto tariffs by up to six months in order to allow negotiations to continue.

Trump faces a May 18th deadline to decide whether to slap a tariff of as much as 25 percent on imported cars and parts due to national security concerns.

Looking ahead, trading on Thursday may be impacted by reaction to reports on weekly jobless claims, housing starts, and Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity.


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EURUSD back tests broken short-term support and get rejected

Trading 15 mai 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD today bounced strongly back towards the broken support trend line and after back testing it price got rejected. Price action today gave another short-term bearish signal for EURUSD as bulls could not push price above 1.1230.

analytics5cdc73d664a92.png

Red line - upper bearish channel boundary

Blue rectangle - horizontal support

Black lines- short-term support trend lines

Yesterday EURUSD broke below the short-term upward sloping support trend line. Today price bounced for a back test and got rejected. Support is now found at 1.1180 and resistance at 1.1230. EURUSD has made no bullish move today so bulls have a lot of work if they want to change the trend in this pair. Bears remain in control of the short- and medium-term trend as long as price is below 1.1260.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Futures Settle Modestly Higher

Trading 15 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold futures settled slightly higher on Wednesday, paring some early gains after equities found support on slightly easing concerns about trade war.

Weak retail sales and industrial growth data out of the U.S. and China, and tensions in the Middle East supported the yellow metal, while the dollar's recovery from lower levels limited its gains.

The dollar index, which rose to 97.70, after falling to a low of 97.44 earlier in the day, was last seen hovering around 97.55, up slightly from previous close.

Gold futures for June ended up $1.50, or about 0.1%, at $1,297.80 an ounce, off the day's high of $1,301.70.

On Tuesday, gold futures for June ended down $5.50, or 0.4%, at $1,296.30 an ounce.

Silver futures for July ended unchanged at $14.812 an ounce, while Copper futures for July settled at $2.7430 per pound, gaining $0.0190 for the session.

Data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed an unexpected drop in U.S. retail sales in the month of April.

The report said retail sales edged down by 0.2% in April after spiking by an upwardly revised 1.7% in March. Economists had expected retail sales to rise by 0.2% compared to the 1.6% jump originally reported for the previous month.

A report released by the Federal Reserve said industrial production in the U.S. unexpectedly showed a notable decrease in the month of April, falling by 0.5%, following a revised 0.2% uptick in March.

Economists had expected production to come in unchanged compared to the 0.1% dip originally reported for the previous month.

Utilities output plunged by 3.5% in April and manufacturing output slumped by 0.5%, while mining output surged up by 1.6%, the report said.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

May 15, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 15 mai 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5cdc560808fc3.jpg

Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) then 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci).

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed on April 23.

That's why, the price zone around 1.1235-1.1250 has turned into supply-zone to be watched for bearish rejection.

On the other hand, the market has failed to sustain bearish pressure below the price Level of 1.1175 during last week's consolidations.

That's why, another bullish pullback was expected to occur towards the price zone of 1.1230-1.1250 where significant bearish pressure managed to push the EURUSD towards 1.1175 once more.

On the other hand, a bullish engulfing H4 candlestick has originated around 1.1180 earlier today.

That's why, the pair remains trapped between the depicted key-levels (1.1175-1.1235) until breakout occurs in either direction.

For the bearish side to regain dominance, early bearish breakout below 1.1175 is needed to pursue towards 1.1115.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders who were advised to have a SELL entry around the depicted supply zone (1.1235-1.1250) should lower their S/L towards 1.1235 to offset the associated risk.

Initial Target levels should be located around 1.1200, 1.1175 and 1.1115.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Increase By 5.4 Million Barrels In Week Ended 5/10

Trading 15 mai 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Increase By 5.4 Million Barrels In Week Ended 5/10


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bulgaria GDP Growth Strengthens In Q1

Trading 15 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Bulgaria's economy grew at the fastest pace in three quarters in the first three months of the year, flash estimates from the National Statistical Institute showed on Wednesday. Gross domestic product grew 3.4 percent year-on-year following a 3.2 percent increase in the final three months of 2018. The latest pace of annual growth was the fastest since the second quarter of 2018, when the economy expanded at the same 3.4 percent. Compared to the previous three months, GDP increased 1.1 percent in the first quarter after a 0.8 percent expansion in the fourth quarter of 2018. Bulgaria's quarterly growth rate topped the EU expansion of 0.5 percent in the first quarter. Export growth more than doubled to 5 percent year-on-year, while the increase in imports rose slightly to 1.7 percent. Consumption growth slowed sharply to 3.5 percent from 5 percent, and growth in investment tumbled to 2.6 percent from 6.6 percent.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Business Inventories Unchanged In March, Matching Expectations

Trading 15 mai 2019 Commentaire »

A report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday showed no change in U.S. business inventories in the month of March.

The report said business inventories were virtually unchanged in March after rising by 0.3 percent in February. Economists had expected inventories to be unchanged.

Business inventories came in flat as a 0.4 percent increase in manufacturing inventories was offset by a 0.3 percent drop in retail inventories and a 0.1 percent dip in wholesale inventories.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said business sales surged up by 1.6 percent in March following a 0.2 percent uptick in February.

Wholesale and retail sales surged up by 2.3 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively, while manufacturing sales climbed by 0.7 percent.

With inventories unchanged and sales spiking, the total business inventories/sales ratio fell to 1.37 in March from 1.39 in February.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com