Dollar Stays Firm Against Most Major Currencies

Trading 14 mai 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar exhibited strength against most major currencies on Tuesday even as traders continued to weigh the likely impact of U.S.-China trade conflicts on the global economy and digesting the latest batch of economic data

The dollar index rose to a high of 97.55 and was last seen up 0.17%, at 97.52.

The Japanese yen, which rose sharply on safe haven appeal on Monday, retreated today, contributing notably to the greenback's strength.

The yen weakened to 109.77 a dollar at one stage before it recovered to 109.60 a dollar, still down nearly 0.3% from previous close.

Data from Japan's Ministry of Finance showed Japan's current account surplus stood at 2,847.9 billion yen as on 31 March 2019, down 10.6% on year.

That missed forecasts for a surplus of 3,007.2 billion but was still up from 2,676.8 billion in February.

The trade balance showed a surplus of 700.1 billion yen, also missing expectations for 838.9 billion yen and up from 489.2 billion yen in the previous month.

Exports fell 5.2% on year to 7.058 trillion yen, while imports added an annual 1.5% to 6.358 trillion yen.

The euro fetched $1.1208 dollar, down from $1.1223 a session earlier.

Eurozone industrial production fell for the second straight month in March, declining by 0.3% month-on-month, figures from Eurostat showed on Tuesday. In February, industrial production fell 0.1%.

The latest decline was driven by 1% fall in non-durable consumer goods and a 0.3% decline in energy production.

Against Pound Sterling, the greenback was up 0.4% at $1.2907, strengthening from a low of $1.2971.

In economic news from the U.K., jobless rate declined in the first quarter to the lowest since 1974, signaling continuing firming of the labor market, the Office for National Statistics reported Tuesday.

The ILO jobless rate came in at 3.8 percent in the first quarter, while the rate was expected to remain unchanged at 3.9 percent. The rate has not been lower since last quarter of 1974, the ONS said.

The U.S. currency gained marginally against the Aussie with the AUD-USD pair trading at 0.6943.

Against the loonie, the dollar was down 0.1% at 1.3464, which against Swiss franc, it was gaining 0.27% at 1.0091.

The Chinese yuan, which fell to around 6.9200 on Monday as trade war tensions escalated, recovered today amid renewed optimism the two largest economies in the would might agree on a trade deal sometime soon.

In U.S. economic news, a report from the Labor Department showed U.S. import prices rose by much less than expected in the month of April.

A drop in prices for non-fuel imports partly offset another jump in prices for fuel imports, the report showed.

Import prices edged up by 0.2% in April after climbing by 0.6% in March. Economists had expected import prices to increase by 0.7%.

The report said export prices also rose by 0.2% in April following a 0.6% increase in the previous month. Export prices had been expected to climb by 0.5%.


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Treasuries Show Modest Move Back To The Downside

Trading 14 mai 2019 Commentaire »

After initially showing a lack of direction, treasuries moved modestly lower over the course of the trading session on Tuesday.

Bond prices moved to the downside in mid-morning trading and remained in the red throughout the afternoon. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, inched up by 1.4 basis points to 2.419 percent.

With the increase on the day, the ten-year yield rebounded after ending the previous session at its lowest closing level in well over a month.

The pullback by treasuries came as traders cashed in on the strength seen in recent sessions amid the escalating trade dispute between the U.S. and China.

Despite the retaliatory tariffs announced by China on Monday, traders generally remain optimistic the U.S. and China will eventually reach a trade deal.

President Donald Trump has continued to express confidence the Chinese will yield to U.S. demands, claiming a trade agreement was 95 percent complete before China reneged.

Trump has repeatedly argued that the U.S. is in a stronger position than China in the negotiations, citing the recent strength of the U.S. economy.

"If you looked at the first quarter - which is always, historically, the worst quarter - we were at 3.2 percent. People were very surprised," Trump told reporters on Monday.

"Well, a lot of that was the tariffs that we were taking in from China," he added. "So we're in a very good position and I think it's only going to get better."

Trump also indicated that he would be meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 Summit in Japan late next month.

"We have a very good relationship. Maybe something will happen," Trump said. "But we're going to be meeting, as you know, at the G20 in Japan. And that will be, I think, probably, a very fruitful meeting."

Economic news may move back into the spotlight on Wednesday, with traders likely to keep a close eye on reports on retail sales, industrial production, and homebuilder confidence.


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Crude Oil Futures Settle Higher

Trading 14 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices moved higher on Tuesday amid supply concerns and slightly easing worries about energy demand after the U.S. and China struck a conciliatory tone on trade talks.

OPEC-led production cuts, reports of drone attacks on Saudi pumping stations and concerns about likely disruption in crude supply following the tanker attacks in the Middle East over the weekend contributed as well to oil's uptick.

Saudi Arabia today reported "armed drones" attacked two pumping stations in the kingdom, underscoring rising tensions in the Middle East.

The attack comes a day after two of Saudi Arabia's oil tankers were sabotaged off the coast of the United Arab Emirates.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for June ended up $0.74, or 1.2%, at $61.78 a barrel, after climbing to a high of $62.11 intraday.

On Monday, WTI crude oil futures for June ended down $0.62, or about 1%, at $61.04 a barrel, after rising to a high of $63.33 earlier in the session.

Despite China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, worries about trade conflict have eased a bit today amid signs the U.S. and China are likely to get closer to achieving a trade deal.

U.S. President Donald Trump today indicated that he would be meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 Summit in Japan late next month.

"We have a very good relationship. Maybe something will happen," Trump said. "But we're going to be meeting, as you know, at the G20 in Japan. And that will be, I think, probably, a very fruitful meeting."

Meanwhile, a U.S. official said Iran was the likely culprit after four commercial vessels, including two Saudi oil tankers, were sabotaged on Sunday near Fujairah.

"We need to do a thorough investigation to understand what happened, why it happened, and then come up with reasonable responses short of war," John Abizaid, U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia told reporters in the Saudi capital Riyadh in remarks published on Tuesday.

Markets are looking ahead to the weekly inventory data. The American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to come up with its weekly oil report later today, while the Energy Information Administration's inventory report is due Wednesday morning.


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Gold Futures Settle Lower As Equities, Dollar Advance

Trading 14 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday, as the dollar gained in strength and equities moved higher amid renewed optimism that the world's two largest economies will agree on a trade deal sometime in the foreseeable future.

A slightly conciliatory tone on trade talks by U.S. President Donald Trump has helped ease worries about trade jitters today.

Trump indicated that he would be meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 Summit in Japan late next month.

"We have a very good relationship. Maybe something will happen," Trump said. "But we're going to be meeting, as you know, at the G20 in Japan. And that will be, I think, probably, a very fruitful meeting."

However, gold's decline was limited due to reports that the office of U.S. Trade Representative is taking necessary steps to raise duties of up to 25% on a further $300 billion worth of imports from China.

On Monday, worries about trade conflicts rose after China decided to increase tariffs by 5 to 25% on about $60 billion worth of U.S. products, in retaliation to the U.S. move to hike tariffs on about $200 billion of Chinese goods.

Global stocks have moved higher. The dollar index rose to 97.55, gaining about 0.2%.

Gold futures for June ended down $5.50, or 0.4%, at $1,296.30 an ounce.

On Monday, gold futures for June ended up $14.40, or 1.12%, at $1,301.80 an ounce, the highest close in more than a month.

Silver futures for July ended up $0.035, at $14.812 an ounce, while Copper futures for July settled at $2.7250 per pound, up $0.0060 from previous close.

In U.S. economic news, a report from the Labor Department showed U.S. import prices rose by much less than expected in the month of April.

A drop in prices for non-fuel imports partly offset another jump in prices for fuel imports, the report showed.

Import prices edged up by 0.2% in April after climbing by 0.6% in March. Economists had expected import prices to increase by 0.7%.

The report said export prices also rose by 0.2% in April following a 0.6% increase in the previous month. Export prices had been expected to climb by 0.5%.


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May 14, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 14 mai 2019 Commentaire »

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Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) then 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci).

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed on April 23.

That's why, the price zone around 1.1235-1.1250 has turned into supply-zone to be watched for bearish rejection.

On the other hand, the market has failed to sustain bearish pressure below the price Level of 1.1175 during last week's consolidations.

That's why, another bullish pullback was expected to occur towards the price zone of 1.1230-1.1250 where significant bearish pressure has originated Today.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders were advised to look for a valid SELL entry around the depicted supply zone (1.1235-1.1250).

S/L should be placed around 1.1280

Initial Target levels should be located around 1.1200, 1.1175 and 1.1140.

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Bitcoin analysis for May 14, 2019

Trading 14 mai 2019 Commentaire »

BTC has been trading upwards as we expected. Our target at $8.15 has been reached. There is potential for the pullback.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found that there is momentum up decreasing, which is sign that buying looks risky. BTC is in extended run phase and potential pullback is expected. We found the bearish divergence on the slow Stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of the potential pullback incoming. ADX also started to go down indicating potential weakness on BTC.

Upward references:

Swing high – $8.153

Downward:

Swing high acting like support – $7.411

Bottom of the balance - $6.822

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

May 14, 2019 : GBP/USD approaching the backside of the broken daily channel, shall it hold ?

Trading 14 mai 2019 Commentaire »

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On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the newly-established bearish movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted broken uptrend line demonstrated significant bearish rejection.

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish with intermediate-term bearish targets projected towards 1.2900 and 1.2850.

On April 26, a bullish pullback was executed towards the price levels around 1.3035 - 1.3070 (50% - 61.8% Fibonacci levels) where temporary bearish rejection was demonstrated.

Shortly after, a bullish breakout above 1.3075 was temporarily being demonstrated until bearish breakdown below 1.3035 (50% Fibonacci level) was achieved last week.

Hence, a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern was being demonstrated on the H4 chart with neckline located around 1.2985.

As anticipated, The price zone of 1.3030-1.3060 turned to become a prominent supply-zone where a valid bearish entry was offered by the end of last week's consolidations.

Bearish persistence below 1.2985 (Neckline of the reversal pattern) enhanced further bearish decline.

Initial bearish Target was almost reached around 1.2905 (the backside of the broken channel) where another short-term bullish pullback is expected to be initiated towards 1.2985 before further bearish decline can occur.

Trade Recommendations:

For those who had a valid SELL entry around the price levels of (1.3035-1.3070). It's already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to 1.2970 to secure some profits.

Risky traders can look for short-term bullish positions anywhere around 1.2905 with T/P level around 1.2985. S/L to be located below 1.2880.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for May 14, 2019

Trading 14 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold has been trading downwards in pat 24 hours. Anyway, there is still bullish view in the background. Further upward movement is possible.

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Gold did up break of the trading range in the background, which is good sign for further upward movement. Yesterday was the very wide range bar so the today's pullback is normal after these kinds of day. You should still watch for potential buying opportunities on the pullbacks. The key resistance level is set at the price of $1.309

Upward references:

Swing high – $1.309

Downward:

Swing high acting like support – $1.291

Bottom of the balance - $1.277

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for May 14, 2019

Trading 14 mai 2019 Commentaire »

GBP/USD has been trading downwards as we expected yesterday. Anyway, there is potential for the rally in the next period so our advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities.

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We closed our short position from yesterday with the profit of 100 pips. The reason for our exit at 1.2908 is that we saw bullish divergence in creation on the H4 time-frame. This increase odds for potential rally. Our advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The potential target is set at the price of 1.2976.

Upward references:

Swing low like resistance – 1.2976

Downward

Swing low – 1.2877

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Dollar Advances On Easing Trade Worries

Trading 14 mai 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar advanced against its most major counterparts in the European session on Tuesday, along with treasury yields, following remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump indicating hopes about successful trade talks with China.

Trump said that he expects to have a fruitful meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping next month and that hadn't made a decision about imposing another $325 billion tariffs on Chinese goods yet.

"He just got back from China. We'll let you know in about three or four weeks whether or not it was successful ... but I have a feeling it's going to be very successful," Trump said, referring to U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's recent trade talks in Beijing.

Trump's comments soothed worries about a full-blown trade war, providing respite to battered markets.

Data from the Labor Department showed that U.S. import prices rose much less than expected in April as a drop in prices for non-fuel imports partly eclipsed another jump in prices for fuel imports.

The Labor Department said import prices edged up by 0.2 percent in April after climbing by 0.6 percent in March. Economists had expected import prices to increase by 0.7 percent.

The report said export prices also rose by 0.2 percent in April following a 0.6 percent increase in the previous month. Export prices had been expected to climb by 0.5 percent.

The greenback was trading higher at 1.0084 against the franc, up from a low of 1.0051 hit at 6:30 pm ET. The next key resistance for the greenback is likely seen around the 1.02 level.

The greenback spiked up to a 5-day high of 1.1204 against the euro, after falling to 1.1244 at 4:45 am ET. The greenback is seen finding resistance around the 1.11 level.

Final data from Destatis showed that Germany's consumer price inflation accelerated as initially estimated to its highest level in five months in April.

Consumer price inflation rose to 2 percent in April from 1.3 percent in March. This was the highest rate since November, when prices were up 2.1 percent. After a brief pause, the greenback extended its early rise against the pound, touching a new 2-week high of 1.2912. On the upside, 1.27 is likely seen as the next resistance level for the greenback.

Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that U.K. jobless rate declined in the first quarter to the lowest since 1974, pointing to a continued strengthening of the labor market.

The ILO jobless rate came in at 3.8 percent in the first quarter, while the rate was expected to remain unchanged at 3.9 percent. The rate has not been lower since last quarter of 1974, the ONS said.

Continuing its early rally, the greenback firmed to more than a 4-month high of 0.6935 against the aussie. The greenback is poised to target resistance around the 0.68 area.

The greenback hovered at a 5-day high of 1.3487 against the loonie, from a low of 1.3456 seen at 7:15 am ET. Next key resistance for the greenback is possibly seen around the 1.37 level.

The greenback bounced off to 0.6573 against the kiwi, reversing from a low of 0.6591 touched at 10:30 pm ET. This may be compared to a 6-day high of 0.6562 seen at the beginning of the Asian session. Should the greenback extends its uptrend, 0.64 is likely seen as its next resistance level.

On the flip side, the greenback retreated to 109.45 against the yen, following a high of 109.77 hit at 3:15 am ET. If the greenback extends decline, it may challenge support around the 108.00 level.

In today's events, at 12:45 pm ET, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George will give a speech about the economy at the Economic Club of Minnesota, in Minneapolis.


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