Dollar Exhibits Mixed Trend Against Major Rivals

Trading 13 mai 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar turned in a mixed performance against other major currencies on Monday, with traders weighing the likely impact of China's retaliatory measures against the U.S. on the global economy.

The Chinese currency yuan dropped by over 1% against the greenback amid an escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

The yuan dropped to around 6.9200 before regaining some lost ground, recovering to 6.9119.

China shrugged off a warning from U.S. President Donald Trump and announced plans to raise tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods.

Last week, after China spoke about "necessary countermeasures" in response to the U.S. tariff increase, Trump warned the situation "will only get worse" if China retaliates.

"I say openly to President Xi & all of my many friends in China that China will be hurt very badly if you don't make a deal because companies will be forced to leave China for other countries. Too expensive to buy in China," Trump tweeted. "You had a great deal, almost completed, & you backed out!"

Against the Euro, the dollar was up marginally at 1.1230 and against British Pound Sterling, it was up 0.3% at 1.2961 a Sterling.

The Japanese yen was up on safe haven appeal. The currency strengthened to 109.03 before giving up some gains, as it retreated to 109.31 a dollar, still up nearly 0.6%.

The greenback was up 0.45% against the loonie and up 0.8% against the Aussie, but lost ground against Swiss franc, easing 0.5% to 1.0066.


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Crude Oil Futures Pare Early Gains, End Notably Lower

Trading 13 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures pared early gains and settled notably lower on Monday as worries about global growth following an escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions raised concerns about energy demand.

Earlier in the day, oil prices rose amid concerns the tanker attacks in the Middle East might result in disruption in crude supply.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for June ended down $0.62, or about 1%, at $61.04 a barrel, after rising to a high of $63.33 earlier in the session.

Brent crude oil futures dropped down by $0.42 to $70.20 a barrel by around mid afternoon.

On Friday, WTI crude futures for June ended lower by 4 cents at $61.66 a barrel, after rising to a high of $62.49 a barrel intraday.

Despite warning from U.S. President Donald Trump that the situation "will only get worse" if China retaliates to U.S. decision on tariff increase on Chinese goods, the Chinese government has decided to increase tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods.

China has announced that tariff hikes ranging from 5 to 25% on 5,140 U.S. products would take effect on June 1st.

Meanwhile, according to reports, China has invited U.S. officials to Beijing to continue talks this week.

Trump's economic advisor Larry Kudlow said Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping are likely to meet during a G-20 meeting in June.

Oil prices rallied in early trades Monday amid heightened supply concerns after the UAE said on Sunday that four cargo vessels were subjected to "sabotage operations" off the coast of Fujairah, one of the world's largest bunkering hubs.

Reacting to reports of explosions in Fujairah, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said in a statement that the attack did not lead to any casualties or an oil spill but caused significant damage to the vessels' structures.

One of the two Saudi vessels attacked was on its way to be loaded with Saudi crude from Ras Tanura port for delivery to state-owned Saudi Aramco's customers in the United States.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesman called the incidents "worrisome and dreadful" and asked for an investigation into the matter.

Traders also continued to weigh the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and OPEC-led output cuts on global crude supply.


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Treasuries Move Notably Higher Amid Escalating Trade Dispute

Trading 13 mai 2019 Commentaire »

After ending last Friday's trading roughly flat, treasuries showed a significant move to the upside during the trading session on Monday.

Bond prices gave back ground in afternoon trading after a morning rally but remained firmly positive. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 5 basis points to 2.405 percent.

With the notable decrease on the day, the ten-year yield ended the session at its lowest closing level in well over a month.

Treasuries benefited from their appeal as a safe haven after China announced plans to raise tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods, shrugging off a warning from U.S. President Donald Trump.

The move by China comes in retaliation to Trump's recent decision to raise tariffs on approximately $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent from 10 percent.

China said increased tariffs on a total of 5,140 U.S. products would take effect June 1st, with the tariffs ranging from 5 percent to 25 percent.

Beijing is following through on its pledge to take "necessary countermeasures" in response to the U.S. tariff increase even though Trump warned the situation "will only get worse" if China retaliates.

Trump has sought to continue to pressure China to reach a trade agreement in a series of posts to Twitter, telling the communist country the deal will become "far worse for them if it has to be negotiated in my second term."

"I say openly to President Xi & all of my many friends in China that China will be hurt very badly if you don't make a deal because companies will be forced to leave China for other countries. Too expensive to buy in China," Trump tweeted. "You had a great deal, almost completed, & you backed out!"

Trump has previously threatened to raise tariffs on essentially all remaining imports from China, which are valued at approximately $300 billion.

Developments on the trade front are likely to remain in focus on Tuesday, overshadowing a report on import and exports prices in April.


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Gold Futures Rise Sharply, End At Over 1-month High

Trading 13 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices advanced to over 1-month high on Monday, as traders rushed for the safe haven asset after global equities tumbled amid rising concerns over growth after China retaliated to U.S. tariffs on its goods by announcing higher levies on about $60 billion worth of U.S. goods.

Gold prices edged lower early on in the session after the Chinese currency yuan dropped to its lowest level in about five months against the greenback as trader concerns weighed.

However, the yellow metal rebounded after equities plunged and the dollar weakened on trade jitters.

The dollar index dropped to a low of 97.03, before forcing its way up to around 97.30, near its previous close.

Gold futures for June ended up $14.40, or 1.12%, at $1,301.80 an ounce.

On Friday, gold futures for June ended up $2.20, or 0.2%, at $1,287.40 an ounce.

Silver futures for July ended down $0.013, at $14.777 an ounce, while Copper futures for July settled at $2.7190 per pound, down $0.0555 from previous close.

Global stocks plunged on Monday amid worries about growth after China retaliated to the U.S. decision to increase tariffs on about $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.

After saying last week that it would come up with "necessary countermeasures" in response to the tariff increase by the U.S., China has gone ahead and announced tariffs on U.S. goods, despite U.S. President Donald Trump's warning that the situation "will only get worse" if China retaliates.

China has announced that tariff hikes ranging from 5 to 25% on 5,140 U.S. products would take effect on June 1st.

Meanwhile, according to reports, China has invited U.S. officials to Beijing to continue talks this week.

Trump's economic advisor Larry Kudlow said Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping are likely to meet during a G-20 meeting in June.


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May 13, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 13 mai 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5cd9aced85910.jpg

Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) then 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci).

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed on April 23.

That's why, the price zone around 1.1235-1.1250 has turned into supply-zone to be watched for bearish rejection.

On the other hand, the market has failed to sustain bearish pressure below the price Level of 1.1175 during last week's consolidations.

That's why, another bullish pullback was expected to occur towards 1.1230-1.1250 which is currently being breached to the upside.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should be waiting for a H4 bearish closure below the depicted supply zone (1.1235-1.1250) for another valid SELL entry.

S/L should be placed around 1.1260.

Initial Target levels should be located around 1.1200, 1.1175 and 1.1140.

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EURUSD remains inside medium-term bearish channel

Trading 13 mai 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD has tried to break above the 1.1230-1.1260 resistance area but thus far price seems unable to break through resistance. Momentum favors the break out but as long as we trade below 1.1260 we continue to trade inside a medium-term bearish channel.

analytics5cd9ac61c65e4.png

Red lines - bearish medium-term channel

Blue rectangle - important horizontal resistance

Black line - short-term support trend line

EURUSD so far got rejected at the 1.1266 resistance from the previous 2 peaks. Price is challenging the previous highs and the upward boundary of the bearish channel. So far bulls are not strong enough to break resistance. Support is found at 1.1210 shown by the upward sloping black trend line. Breaking below this trend line would be a sign of weakness implying a move towards 1.11 is not out of the question.

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Gold breaking to new short-term highs challenging $1,300 pivot point

Trading 13 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price has broken above the short-term top at $1,288-91 area and has reached the pivot level of $1,300. Managing to hold above it will open the way for a move towards $1,350. Failure to maintain bullish momentum will lead to a sharp rejection and reversal. So far the bullish scenario prevails.

analytics5cd9ab185b64d.png

Green rectangle - major confluence zone

Black line - resistance trend line (broken)

Since trading near $1,266-70 area we were expecting for Gold to bounce towards $1,280-90 or even $1,300. Now that Gold has broken also above the black trend line resistance we see things from a more bullish perspective. Gold price has support at $1,288-90. Bulls must hold above this level. Bulls need to continue making higher highs and higher lows. Bears on the other hand need to show more determination now and reverse trend below $1,288 to regain control.

Concluding, the breakout above the black trend line is an important event and this marks the change of the trend to bullish again and the end of the corrective phase since $1,347 peak.

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May 13, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 13 mai 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5cd9a6fbdc00a.jpg

On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the newly-established bearish movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted broken uptrend line demonstrated significant bearish rejection.

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish with intermediate-term bearish targets projected towards 1.2900 and 1.2850.

On April 26, a bullish pullback was executed towards the price levels around 1.3035 - 1.3070 (50% - 61.8% Fibonacci levels) where temporary bearish rejection was demonstrated.

Shortly after, a bullish breakout above 1.3075 was temporarily being demonstrated until bearish breakdown below 1.3035 (50% Fibonacci level) was achieved earlier last week.

Hence, a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern is being demonstrated on the H4 chart with neckline located around 1.2985.

As anticipated, The price zone of 1.3030-1.3060 turned to become a prominent supply-zone where a valid bearish entry was offered by the end of last week's consolidations.

For the bearish Head and Shoulders pattern to remain valid, bearish persistence should be maintained below 1.2985 (Neckline).

Initial bearish Target would located around 1.2905 where another short-term bullish pullback may be initiated towards 1.2985.

Trade Recommendations:

For those who had a valid SELL entry around the price levels of (1.3035-1.3070). It's already running in profits. T/p levels to be located around 1.2950 and 2905 while S/L should be lowered to 1.2990 to secure some profits.

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China Raises Tariffs On $60 Billion Worth Of U.S. Goods

Trading 13 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Shrugging off a warning from U.S. President Donald Trump, China has announced plans to raise tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods.

The move by China comes in retaliation to Trump's recent decision to raise tariffs on approximately $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent from 10 percent.

China said increased tariffs on a total of 5,140 U.S. products would take effect June 1st, with the tariffs ranging from 5 percent to 25 percent.

Beijing is following through on its pledge to take "necessary countermeasures" in response to the U.S. tariff increase even though Trump warned the situation "will only get worse" if China retaliates.

Trump has sought to continue to pressure China to reach a trade agreement in a series of posts to Twitter, telling the communist country the deal will become "far worse for them if it has to be negotiated in my second term."

"I say openly to President Xi & all of my many friends in China that China will be hurt very badly if you don't make a deal because companies will be forced to leave China for other countries. Too expensive to buy in China," Trump tweeted. "You had a great deal, almost completed, & you backed out!"

Trump has previously threatened to raise tariffs on essentially all remaining imports from China, which are valued at approximately $300 billion.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for May 13, 2019

Trading 13 mai 2019 Commentaire »

BTC has been trading strongly higher and we got test of $7.411. The momentum is strong and we expect more upside continuation.

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According to the H4 time – frame, we found there is a very strong bullish momentum on the BTC and extended run is present. IT is very risky to watch for selling opportunities at this stage. ADX is ready is very strong and rising, which is indication of the strong bullish momentum. These are references:

Upward:

Swing high – $7.411

Upward projection - $7.900

Downward:

Swing low - $6.822

Watch for buying opportunities due to strong upward momentum. Upward target is set at the price of $7.906.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com