Dollar Up Slightly As Trade War Concerns Linger

Trading 08 mai 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar was mostly subdued slightly above the unchanged line on Wednesday with traders weighing political and economic news from across the globe for direction.

The ongoing trade spat between the U.S. and China threatens to significantly impact global economic growth.

Earlier this week, the markets were reacting to news that the U.S. administration will hike tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25% from the existing 10% from this Friday.

U.S. President Donald Trump noted in a post on Twitter that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will be a part of the talks, claiming the high-ranking official is "coming to the U.S. to make a deal."

"We'll see, but I am very happy with over $100 Billion a year in Tariffs filling U.S. coffers...great for U.S., not good for China!" Trump tweeted.

Trump also claimed China is attempting to renegotiate terms of a trade deal in order to strike a new deal with a Democratic president that continues to rip off the U.S.

The U.S. dollar index, which 97.68, was last seen hovering around 97.60, up 0.06% from previous close.

Against the Euro, the dollar was $1.1192, after moving between $1.1183 and $1.1215.

The British Pound Sterling weakened to $1.3009, losing more than 0.5% against the dollar.

The Chinese yuan was down 0.2% against the greenback, extending losses to a third straight day, due to rising concerns over U.S.-China trade war.

The Aussie and loonie were lower by 0.37% and 0.04%, respectively, against the greenback. The Swiss franc was down as well, with the dollar-franc pair trading at 1.0208.


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Crude Oil Futures Settle Notably Higher After Inventory Data

Trading 08 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices closed higher on Wednesday, rebounding from losses posted in the previous session, after official data showed an unexpected jump in crude inventories in the U.S. in the week ended May 3.

Worries about prospects of a fall in energy demand due to the ongoing trade spat between the U.S. and China limited oil's gains.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for June ended up $0.72, or 1.2%, at $62.12 a barrel.

On Tuesday, crude oil futures for June ended down $0.85, or 1.4%, at $61.40 a barrel.

According to the data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) this morning, crude inventories in the U.S. fell by 4 million barrels in the week to May 3, much more than an expected increase of 1.2 million barrels.

The EIA report said gasoline stocks declined by 596,000 barrels in the week, while distillate inventories dropped by 159,000 barrels.

The jump in inventories was due to a sharp decline in imports.

Meanwhile, on the trade front, the U.S. is set to raise tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports from this Friday.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is scheduled to travel to Washington for two days of trade talks with U.S. officials this week.

Oil is finding some support due to the ongoing U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, higher crude imports by China and lower output from OPEC.

China's imports rose for the first time in five months in April, while exports unexpectedly shrank 2.7% from a year earlier.

China's crude oil imports in April hit a record high of 10.68 million barrels per day, rebounding from 9.3 million barrels per day in March, preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

OPEC, Russia and other producers are scheduled to meet in June to decide their output policy for the rest of the year.


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Treasuries Give Back Ground Amid Optimism About Trade Talks

Trading 08 mai 2019 Commentaire »

After initially showing a lack of direction, treasuries moved to the downside over the course of the trading session on Wednesday.

Bond prices came under pressure in mid-day trading and remained firmly negative going into the close. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, rose by 3.4 basis points to 2.482 percent.

The pullback by treasuries came amid renewed optimism upcoming U.S.-China trade talks could result in a long-term trade deal between the world's two largest economies.

White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders told reporters there are "indications" the Chinese would like to strike a deal in the coming days, reiterating a claim President Donald Trump made on Twitter earlier in the day.

Trump noted Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will be a part of the talks, claiming the high-ranking official is "coming to the U.S. to make a deal."

"We'll see, but I am very happy with over $100 Billion a year in Tariffs filling U.S. coffers...great for U.S., not good for China!" Trump tweeted.

Trump also claimed China is attempting to pull back from previously negotiated terms of a trade deal in order to strike a new deal with a Democratic president that continues to rip off the U.S.

Meanwhile, China's Commerce Ministry said the communist country will take "necessary countermeasures" if the U.S. follows through on a planned increase in tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday.

Treasuries saw some further downside following the release of the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $27 billion worth of ten-year notes, which attracted below average demand.

The ten-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.479 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.17, while the ten previous ten-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.50.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

On Thursday, the Treasury is due to finish off this week's long-term securities auctions with the sale of $19 billion worth of thirty-year bonds.

Any news out of the U.S.-China trade talks will attract attention on Thursday, although traders are also likely to keep an eye on reports on weekly jobless claims, the U.S. trade deficit, and producer prices.


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Gold Futures Settle Lower

Trading 08 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices drifted lower on Wednesday, snapping a three-day winning run, as traders looked to pick up riskier assets such as equities ahead of a fresh round of trade talks between the U.S. and Chinese officials on Thursday and Friday.

The dollar is up slightly against some peers. The dollar index rose to 97.68 and was last seen around 97.60, up slightly from previous close.

Gold futures for June ended down $4.20 at $1,281.40 an ounce.

On Tuesday, gold futures for June ended up $1.80, or 0.1%, at $1,285.60 an ounce.

Silver futures for July settled at $14.862 an ounce, down $0.064 from previous close.

Copper futures for July ended down $0.0110, at $2.7745 per pound.

On the trade front, the Trump administration's plans to raise tariffs on Chinese goods as early as Friday continues to weigh on sentiment.

The threat of higher tariffs has led to concerns about global economic growth and the potential for higher costs to be passed on to U.S. consumers.

President Donald Trump noted in a post on Twitter that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will be a part of the talks, claiming the high-ranking official is "coming to the U.S. to make a deal."

"We'll see, but I am very happy with over $100 Billion a year in Tariffs filling U.S. coffers...great for U.S., not good for China!" Trump tweeted.

Trump also claimed China is attempting to renegotiate terms of a trade deal in order to strike a new deal with a Democratic president that continues to rip off the U.S.

Meanwhile, Chinese trade data proved to be a mixed bag. While exports unexpectedly shrank 2.7 percent in April from a year earlier, imports surprised with their first increase in five months.


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Ten-Year Note Auction Attracts Below Average Demand

Trading 08 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Continuing this week's series of long-term securities auctions, the Treasury Department sold $27 billion worth of ten-year notes on Wednesday, attracting below average demand.

The ten-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.479 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.17.

The Treasury sold $24 billion worth of ten-year notes last month, drawing a high yield of 2.466 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.55.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous ten-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.50.

On Thursday, the Treasury is due to finish off this week's long-term securities auctions with the sale of $19 billion worth of thirty-year bonds.


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May 8, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 08 mai 2019 Commentaire »

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Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) then 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci).

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed on April 23.

Currently, the price zone around 1.1235-1.1250 has turned into supply-zone to be watched for bearish rejection.

Few days ago, another recent bullish head and shoulders pattern was being demonstrated around 1.1140 on the H4 chart.

That's why, conservative traders were suggested to wait for another bullish pullback towards 1.1230-1.1250 where a valid SELL entry was suggested.

On Friday, the market has failed to sustain bearish pressure below the price Level of 1.1175.

That's why, another bullish pullback was expected to occur towards the depicted SELL zone around 1.1235.

However, the EURUSD pair found great bearish rejection around 1.1200 - 1.1210 which brought the EURUSD pair down towards 1.1175 again.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for an obvious H4 bearish closure below 1.1175 for a valid SELL entry.

S/L should be placed around 1.1200.

Initial Target levels should be located around 1.1135 and 1.1080.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

May 8, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 08 mai 2019 Commentaire »

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On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the newly-established bearish movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted broken uptrend line demonstrated significant bearish rejection.

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish with intermediate-term bearish targets projected towards 1.2900 and 1.2850.

Last week, a bullish pullback was executed towards the price levels around 1.3035 - 1.3070 (50% - 61.8% Fibonacci levels) where temporary bearish rejection was demonstrated.

However, by the end of Friday's consolidations, significant bullish momentum was initiated around 1.3000. Hence, a bullish breakout above 1.3075 was temporarily achieved.

Temporarily, short-term outlook turns to become bullish provided that the price levels around 1.3035 (50% Fibonacci level) remains defended by the bulls.

However, earlier Today, a bearish closure below 1.3035 was achieved thus enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Currently, The price zone of 1.3030-1.3050 constitutes a prominent supply-zone to be watched for bearish entries.

On the other hand, bullish breakout above 1.3030 enhances a quick bullish movement towards 1.3075 where the next Fibonacci level is located.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should be waiting for signs of bearish reversal around the depicted price levels (1.3035-1.3050) as a valid SELL signal.

T/p levels to be located around 1.2950 and 2880.

Any bearish breakout above 1.3080 invalidates this bearish scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Drop By 4.0 Million Barrels In Week Ended May 3

Trading 08 mai 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Drop By 4.0 Million Barrels In Week Ended May 3


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 08, 2019

Trading 08 mai 2019 Commentaire »

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Overview: The USD/CHF pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 1.0123 and 1.0177. Currently, the price is in an upward channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that the pair is still in a bullish trend. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.0177. Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.0177. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 1.0177. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the level of 1.0177 with the first target at the level of 1.0265. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 1.0265, we should see the pair climbing towards the point of 1.0314. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.0123.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 08, 2019

Trading 08 mai 2019 Commentaire »

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.1192. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.1192 to the bottom around 1.1111. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1192 followed by 1.1216, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1111. According to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.1192 and 1.1111; for that we expect a range of 81 pips. If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1111, the market will decline further to 1.1069. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1069 with a view to test the second support. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.1192 (major resistance), then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com