Dollar Mostly Steady Amid Rising U.S.-China Trade Tensions

Trading 07 mai 2019 Commentaire »

The dollar displayed strength against some of its major rivals on Tuesday amid news about escalating trading tensions between the U.S. and China.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer confirmed the U.S. plans to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25% on Friday.

The comments from Lighthizer came after President Donald Trump threatened to implement the tariff increase in a post on Twitter on Sunday, claiming trade talks between the U.S. and China are moving "too slowly."

The dollar index rose to 97.74, but pared most of its gains as the session progressed, and was hovering around 97.60 by late afternoon, up just 0.05% from previous close.

The U.S. dollar weakened against the Japanese yen, with the latter's safe haven appeal tilting the scale in its favour after the U.S. said it will start imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods from this Friday.

The yen strengthened to 110.26 a dollar, gaining nearly 0.5% from 110.17 a dollar late Monday.

The euro was down by about 0.11% at $1.1188, easing from $1.1200. Earlier in the day, the euro had weakened to $1.1219 after the European Commission slashed the growth forecasts for the euro area for this year and next. Disappointing data out of Germany and France weighed as well on the euro.

The EC cited a "more pronounced" slowdown since the second half of last year, caused mainly due to weaker external demand, disruption in the automobile sector, policy uncertainty and Brexit worries.

In its Spring 2019 forecast, the executive arm of the European Union trimmed the growth forecast for this year to 1.2% from 1.9% predicted in the Autumn forecast in February.

The greenback was up more than 0.2% at $1.3071 against British Pound Sterling.

Against Canadian loonie, the U.S. dollar gained 0.19% with the Dollar-Loonie pair trading at 1.3474.

Against Swiss franc, the dollar edged up 0.13% to 1.0193, and against the Aussie, the dollar was down 0.24%. The AUD-USD pair was last seen trading at 0.7008.


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Oil Prices Settle Lower As Trade Tensions Escalate

Trading 07 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices drifted lower on Tuesday as global growth concerns rose amid rising U.S.-China trade war tensions.

Oil's fall was somewhat limited due to the likely impact on global crude supply amid U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.

News about the U.S. deploying the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and a bomber task force to the Middle East to counter "credible threats" hurt as well, although Tehran dismissed the move by as the U.S. as "psychological warfare".

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for June ended down $0.85 or 1.4%, at $61.40 a barrel, thhe weakest settlement price since March 29.

Brent crude oil futures shed $1.31 or 1.8%, at $69.93 a barrel.

On U.S.-China trade front, accusing China of backtracking on commitments in trade talks, the U.S. has threatened to further increase U.S. trade tariffs on Chinese goods.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer confirmed the U.S. plans to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25% on Friday.

The comments from Lighthizer came after President Donald Trump threatened to implement the tariff increase in a post on Twitter on Sunday, claiming trade talks between the U.S. and China are moving "too slowly."

It is expected that top Chinese negotiator Vice Premier Liu He would lead a delegation coming from Beijing for talks in Washington on Thursday and Friday.

Meanwhile, the Short-term Energy Outlook report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts 2019 U.S. crude production of 12.45 million barrels a day, up 0.5% from the April forecast.

It also raised its 2020 output view by 2.2% to 13.38 million barrels a day.

For 2019, EIA has lifted its West Texas Intermediate crude price outlook by 6.8% to $62.79 a barrel and its Brent view by 6.9% to $69.64.

It also raised the 2020 WTI price view by 8.6% to $63 and Brent price view by 8.1% to $67.

Markets now await the weekly inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and Energy Information Administration. While the API is scheduled to release its report later in today, the EIA's data is due Wednesday morning.


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Treasuries Extend Recent Upward Move Amid Trade Worries

Trading 07 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Extending the notable upward move seen over two previous sessions, treasuries showed a strong move to the upside during trading on Tuesday.

Bond prices moved higher early in the session and climbed more firmly into positive territory as the day progressed. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, slid by 5.2 basis points to 2.448 percent.

Treasuries benefited from their appeal as a safe haven after U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer confirmed the U.S. plans to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent on Friday.

President Donald Trump threatened to implement the tariff increase in a post on Twitter on Sunday, claiming trade talks between the U.S. and China are moving "too slowly."

The confirmation of the Friday deadline may have shattered the belief that the threat from Trump was just a negotiating tactic.

Lighthizer attributed the potential tariff increase to an "erosion in commitments by China" over the last week, with the trade representative calling substantive changes to the text of a deal "unacceptable."

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin noted the U.S. would reconsider raising the tariffs if negotiations get back on track during the next round of talks later this week.

However, traders have largely shrugged off news that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is expected to join this week's talks

Lighthizer and Mnuchin did not comment on Trump's threat to impose tariffs on the remaining $325 billion worth of Chinese imports.

Treasuries remained firmly positive following the release of the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $38 billion worth of three-year notes, which attracted modestly below average demand.

The three-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.248 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.48, while the ten previous three-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.56.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

Trading on Wednesday may be impacted by reaction to any news on U.S.-China trade talks amid another quiet day on the U.S. economic front.

Bond traders are also likely to keep an eye on the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $27 billion worth of ten-year notes.


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U.S. Consumer Credit Rises Less Than Expected In March

Trading 07 mai 2019 Commentaire »

With a modest drop in revolving credit partly offsetting an increase in non-revolving credit, the Federal Reserve released a report on Tuesday showing U.S. consumer credit rose by less than expected in the month of March.

The Fed said consumer credit rose by $10.3 billion in March after climbing by an upwardly revised $15.4 billion in February. Economists had expected consumer credit to increase by $16.0 billion.

Non-revolving credit such as student loans and car loans climbed by $12.4 billion in March, matching the increase seen in the previous month.

Meanwhile, the report said revolving credit, which largely reflects credit card debt, edged down by $2.2 billion in March after rising by $3.1 billion in February.

Compared to the same month a year ago, consumer credit in March was up by 3.1 percent, as non-revolving credit jump by 5.0 percent but revolving credit tumbled by 2.5 percent.


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AUD/USD 5 Star Trading Signal | Fundamental + Technical Analysis

Trading 07 mai 2019 Commentaire »

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Fundamental Analysis:

Australia's retail sales data which represents consumer spending came in better than expected, rising to 0.3% month on month in march, beating the expected of 0.2%. However, this figure marks a significant slowdown in spending from the 0.8% growth registered in February. Furthermore, Australia's trade surplus widened to A$4949 million in March, topping the forecast of A$4300 million and up from the preceding month's print of A$4801million. Exports, however, dropped 2%. As a result of the mixed date, AUD barely moved this morning. The AUD rose sharply after RBA delivered interest rates decision that remained constant. The bank sounded more hawkish than most investors were expecting, explaining how inflation had risen by 1.3%. This has helped lift risk sentiments and the AUD.

Technical Analysis:

hw7w0MbY_jrfHuLzSR6GV0kjzeyoapPkKdcfFTNY

Sell entry: 0.7058Why It's Good: We're seeing a lot of resistance at that level, like 100% Fibonacci extension and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Strong overlap resistance too.

Stop loss: 0.7089Why It's Good: Very nice retracement and a horizontal swing high resistance.

Take profit: 0.7012Why It's Good: Really nice retracement and extension

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*U.S. Consumer Credit Rises By $10.3 Billion In March

Trading 07 mai 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Consumer Credit Rises By $10.3 Billion In March


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Futures Settle Higher On Safe Haven Demand

Trading 07 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices moved higher on Tuesday, as global stocks fell amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and a downward revision in eurozone economic growth forecast by the European Commission.

The dollar's rise limited gold's gains a bit. The dollar index, which rose to 97.38, was last seen at 97.68, up 0.12% from previous close.

Gold futures for June ended up $1.80 or 0.1%, at $1,285.60 an ounce.

Silver futures for July ended little changed from previous close, at $14.926 an ounce.

Copper futures for July settled at $2.7855 per pound, down $0.0440 from previous close.

Accusing China of backtracking on commitments in trade talks, the U.S. has threatened to further increase U.S. trade tariffs on Chinese goods.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer confirmed the U.S. plans to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25% on Friday.

The comments from Lighthizer came after President Donald Trump threatened to implement the tariff increase in a post on Twitter on Sunday, claiming trade talks between the U.S. and China are moving "too slowly."

It is expected that top Chinese negotiator Vice Premier Liu He would lead a delegation coming from Beijing for talks in Washington on Thursday and Friday.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Three-Year Note Auction Attracts Below Average Demand

Trading 07 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Kicking off this week's series of long-term securities auctions, the Treasury Department sold $38 billion worth of three-year notes on Tuesday, attracting modestly below average demand.

The three-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.248 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.48.

The Treasury also sold $38 billion worth of three-year notes last month, drawing a high yield of 2.301 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.49.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous three-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.56.

Looking ahead, the Treasury is due to sell $27 billion worth of ten-year notes on Wednesday and $19 billion worth of thirty-year bonds on Thursday.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

May 7, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 07 mai 2019 Commentaire »

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Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) then 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci).

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed on April 23.

Currently, the price zone around 1.1235-1.1250 has turned into supply-zone to be watched for bearish rejection.

Few days ago, another recent bullish head and shoulders pattern was being demonstrated around 1.1140 on the H4 chart.

That's why, conservative traders were suggested to wait for another bullish pullback towards 1.1230-1.1250 where a valid SELL entry was suggested.

On Friday, the market has failed to sustain bearish pressure below the price Level of 1.1175.

That's why, another bullish pullback was expected to occur towards the depicted SELL zone around 1.1235.

However, the EURUSD pair found great bearish rejection around 1.1200 - 1.1210 which brought the EURUSD pair down towards 1.1175 again.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for an obvious H4 bearish closure below 1.1175 for a valid SELL entry.

S/L should be placed around 1.1200.

Initial Target levels should be located around 1.1135 and 1.1080.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis for EURUSD for May 7, 2019

Trading 07 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Trend remains bearish in EURUSD in the Daily and weekly time frame according to the Ichimoku cloud indicator. There is no sign of trend reversal but in this post we will point out the levels bulls need to break in order to reverse trend according to Ichimoku cloud indicator.

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In both the Daily and in the weekly time frame price is below the Ichimoku cloud. In the Daily chart price is below the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators as well. This means that there is no sign of a reversal yet. The tenkan-sen (red line indicator) is at 1.1188 while the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) is at 1.1218. Bulls need to break at least above 1.1220 in order to hope for a move towards the Kumo (cloud) near 1.13. Only a break above the cloud will confirm a trend change on a daily basis. The Kumo (cloud) is at 1.13-1.1350. Until this level breaks to the upside, bears remain in control of the trend.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com