U.S. Dollar Turning In Lackluster Performance After Early Advance

Trading 06 mai 2019 Commentaire »

After initially benefiting from renewed trade concerns, the value of the U.S. dollar turned in a relatively lackluster performance over the course of trading on Monday.

Currently, the U.S. dollar is trading at 110.87 yen compared to the 111.10 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Friday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.1201 compared to last Friday's $1.1198.

The dollar initially benefited from its appeal as a safe haven after President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports in a series of posts on Twitter on Sunday.

Trump said tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods would be increased to 25 percent on Friday and threatened to impose tariffs on the remaining $325 billion worth of Chinese goods "shortly."

"The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No!" Trump tweeted, claiming the existing tariffs on Chinese goods have had "little impact on product cost, mostly borne by China."

The 10 percent tariff had been scheduled to rise to 25 percent at the end of last year, but the increase was delayed due to ongoing trade talks.

The tweets from Trump raised concerns about the next round of U.S.-China trade talks scheduled for later this week in Washington.

The worries faded over the course of the trading day, however, as analysts described the tweets from Trump as a negotiating tactic.

Indications the Chinese delegation still plans to travel to Washington later this week for another round of trade talks also helped offset the concerns.


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Crude Oil Shows Significant Turnaround After Initial Sell-Off

Trading 06 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices showed a significant turnaround over the course of the trading session on Monday, climbing firmly into positive territory after seeing initial weakness.

After falling as low of as $60.04 a barrel, the price of crude oil for June delivery rose $0.31 to $62.25 a barrel.

The price of crude oil initially came under pressure amid renewed trade concerns after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports.

In a series of posts on Twitter on Sunday, Trump said tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods would be increased to 25 percent on Friday and threatened to impose tariffs on the remaining $325 billion worth of Chinese goods "shortly." "The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No!" Trump tweeted, claiming the existing tariffs on Chinese goods have had "little impact on product cost, mostly borne by China."

The 10 percent tariff had been scheduled to rise to 25 percent at the end of last year, but the increase was delayed due to ongoing trade talks.

The tweets from Trump raised some concerns about the outlook for the trade talks, although some suggested the threat is only a negotiating tactic.

Indications the Chinese delegation still plans to travel to Washington later this week for another round of trade talks also offset the early selling pressure.

The subsequent rebound came as traders went bargain hunting after the price of crude oil hit its lowest level in over a month.


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Treasuries Move Notably Higher Amid Renewed Trade Concerns

Trading 06 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries showed a notable move to the upside during trading on Monday as traders looked for safe havens amid renewed trade concerns.

Bond prices gave back ground going into the close but remained firmly in positive territory. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 3.1 basis points to 2.50 percent.

The strength among treasuries came after President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports in a series of posts on Twitter on Sunday.

Trump said tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods would be increased to 25 percent on Friday and threatened to impose tariffs on the remaining $325 billion worth of Chinese goods "shortly."

"The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No!" Trump tweeted, claiming the existing tariffs on Chinese goods have had "little impact on product cost, mostly borne by China."

The 10 percent tariff had been scheduled to rise to 25 percent at the end of last year, but the increase was delayed due to ongoing trade talks.

The tweets from Trump raised concerns about the outlook for the trade talks, although some suggested the threat is only a negotiating tactic.

Amid another quiet day on the U.S. economic front, trading on Tuesday may be impacted by reaction to the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $38 billion worth of three-year notes.


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EURUSD continues to trade within specific downward range

Trading 06 mai 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD bounced of the 1.1150 support towards 1.12 but a zoomed out view of the Daily chart shows that the trend remains bearish as price continues to make lower lows and lower highs inside a downward sloping channel and inside a downward sloping wedge pattern.

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Red lines - bearish channel

Black lines - downward sloping wedge pattern

EURUSD has Daily resistance at 1.1260 and as long as price is below that level I expect another run lower towards 1.11 or 1.1070. Medium-term trend remains bearish as long as price is below 1.1350-1.1390 area. The RSI continues to diverge but this is only a warning and not a reversal signal. Short-term resistance at 1.1260 if broken will push price towards next resistance at 1.13-1.1350.

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Short-term technical analysis of Gold for May 6, 2019

Trading 06 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price bounced towards short-term resistance at $1,290 but still did not manage to break above it. Price remains below important resistance trend line and a break below $1,276 short-term support is very possible over the coming hours.

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Red rectangle - major confluence zone

Blue line -major resistance

Blue rectangle - short-term support

Gold's inability to break above the blue downward sloping trend line is a bearish sign. There are high chances of breaking below the blue short-term support and starting a new sell off that will eventually bring price towards $1,250-60 at least. Gold price is back testing the broken support zone and so far it remains below important short-term ($1,288) and medium-term ($1,300) resistance. Failure to hold above $1,276 will open the way for a test of the double bottom at $1,266.

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May 6, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 06 mai 2019 Commentaire »

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On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the newly-established bearish movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted broken uptrend line demonstrated significant bearish rejection.

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish with intermediate-term bearish targets projected towards 1.2900 and 1.2850.

Last week, a bullish pullback was executed towards the price levels around 1.3035 (50% Fibonacci) where temporary bearish rejection was demonstrated.

However, by the end of Friday's consolidations, significant bullish momentum was initiated around 1.3000 failing to maintain bearish persistence below 1.3030-1.3000.

Short-term outlook turns to become bullish provided that the price levels around 1.3075 remains defended by the bulls.

Currently, The price zone of 1.3030-1.3075 constitutes a prominent demand-zone to be watched for bullish entries.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should be waiting for bearish retracement towards the mentioned demand-zone. T/p levels to be located around 1.3170 and 1.3250.

Any bearish breakdown below 1.3030 invalidates this bullish scenario.

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May 6, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 06 mai 2019 Commentaire »

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Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) then 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci).

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed on April 23.

Currently, the price zone around 1.1235-1.1250 has turned into supply-zone to be watched for bearish rejection.

Few days ago, another recent bullish head and shoulders pattern was being demonstrated around 1.1140 on the H4 chart.

That's why, conservative traders were suggested to wait for another bullish pullback towards 1.1230-1.1250 for a valid SELL entry.

On Friday, bearish persistence below 1.1175 was needed to ensure further bearish decline. However, the market has failed to sustain bearish pressure below 1.1175.

Hence, Further bullish advancement is expected to occur towards the depicted SELL zone around 1.1235.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for another bullish pullback towards 1.1235 for a valid SELL entry.

S/L should be placed around 1.1275 to narrow the risk while Target levels should be located around 1.1170 and 1.1130.

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China To Cut RRR For Small And Medium-sized Banks

Trading 06 mai 2019 Commentaire »

The People's Bank of China announced on Monday that it will reduce the required reserve ratio for some small and medium-sized banks. The move will take effect on May 15, the state-run news agency Xinhua reported, citing the central bank.

The RRR cut free up about 280 billion yuan, or $41 billion, that can be given as loans to private small businesses struggling amid the wider economic slowdown, the bank said. Following the RRR cut, about 1,000 rural commercial banks will have an reserve requirement of 8 percent.


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Indonesia GDP Growth Slows In Q1; Below Forecast

Trading 06 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Indonesia's economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter of the year amid weaker exports and investment, preliminary data from the statistical bureau showed on Monday.

Gross domestic product grew 5.07 percent year-on-year following a 5.18 percent expansion in the previous three months. Economists had expected the pace of growth to remain unchanged.

Exports shrunk 2.08 percent, while gross domestic fixed capital formation grew 5.03 percent. Government spending rose 5.21 percent. Private consumption increased 5.01 percent.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP decreased 0.52 percent in the first three months of the year.

The Indonesian government has forecast 5.3 percent growth this year and the Bank Indonesia has predicted the pace of economic expansion in the 5-5.4 percent range.


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Bitcoin analysis for May 06, 2019

Trading 06 mai 2019 Commentaire »

BTC lost the upside momentum from last week and it started to form balance area, which is sign for the potential downward correction.

Technical picture:

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Purple horizontal rectangle – resistance cluster

Orange median line – Pitchfork median line (mean)/resistance

Upper rising green line – Diagonal resistance

The market started to balance at level of $6.100 and on the critical resistance, which may be indication of the potential downward correction in the next period. Support levels are seen at the price of $5.645 and $5.344. Strong median Pitchfork line is acting like resistance plus we got strong resistance cluster from the previous price action in the background. The MACD oscillator is suggesting the bearish divergence, which is another sign of the potential weakness on BTC. Watch for selling opportunities with the target at $5.645.

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