Dollar Turns Weak

Trading 03 mai 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar faltered after early gains and exhibited weakness against major rivals on Friday, as data showing a dip in U.S. service sector activity outweighed the Labor Department's report that showed a drop in unemployment in the month of April.

The dollar index, which rose to 98.10 early on in the day, dropped to a low of 97.48, around late afternoon, losing about 0.4%.

Against the British Pound, the dollar was down more than 1% at 1.3172, weakening from Thursday's close of 1.3033.

Against the Euro, the dollar weakened to 1.1201, losing 0.3%, while against the Japanese yen, it was down 0.37% with a unit fetching 111.09 yen, compared to 111.51 yen late Thursday.

The dollar was down nearly 0.4% against the loonie, at 1.3422. Against Swiss franc, the dollar was down 0.24% at 1.0167.

Data released by the U.S. Labor Department showed non-farm payroll employment surged up by 263,000 jobs in April following a downwardly revised increase of 189,000 jobs in March. Economists had expected employment to climb by 185,000 jobs compared to the addition of 196,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

The report also said unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in April from 3.8% in March. Economists had expected the rate to remain unchanged.

Meanwhile, a report released by the Institute for Supply Management on Friday unexpectedly showed a continued slowdown in the pace of U.S. service sector growth in the month of April.

The ISM said its non-manufacturing index dropped to 55.5 in April after falling to 56.1 in March, with the index hitting its lowest level since a matching reading in August of 2017. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 57.0.

The unexpected decrease by the headline index was partly due to a slowdown in new orders growth, as the new orders index dipped to 58.1 in April from 59.0 in March.

The employment index also slumped to 53.7 in April from 55.9 in March, pointing to a slowdown in the pace of job growth in the service sector.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil Futures End Slightly Higher

Trading 03 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures ended higher on Friday due to likely shortage in supply due to sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, and on expectations of good demand for crude on the back of upbeat U.S. jobs data.

However, the uptick was just marginal as rising crude inventories in the U.S. continued to weigh on crude oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for June ended up $0.13, at $61.94 a barrel.

On Thursday, crude oil futures fell as much as 2.8%. For the week, crude oil futures shed about 2.2%, recording losses for a second straight week.

Around mid afternoon, Brent Crude Oil futures were up by about $0.16, at $70.91 a barrel, but still suffered a loss of about 2% in the week.

Data released by the Labor Department today showed employment in the U.S. jumped by much more than expected in the month of April, with the unemployment rate dropping to its lowest level in nearly fifty years.

The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment surged up by 263,000 jobs in April following a downwardly revised increase of 189,000 jobs in March.

Economists had expected employment to climb by 185,000 jobs compared to the addition of 196,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

The stronger than expected job growth partly reflected notable job gains in professional and business services, construction, health care, and social assistance.

The report also said the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in April from 3.8% in March, while economists had expected the rate to remain unchanged.

With the unexpected decrease, the unemployment rate slid to its lowest level since hitting 3.5% in December of 1969.

A report released by Baker Hughes said U.S. energy firms added two oil rigs in the week to May 3, bringing the total count to 807, lower than the 834 rigs active this time last year.

The EIA's weekly estimate for U.S. crude oil production showed that output reached a record 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, rising by around 2 million bpd over the past year.

U.S. crude exports exceeded 3 million bpd for the first time this year, helping offset most of the shortfall expected from U.S sanctions on Iran.

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' output reached a four-year low in April, a Reuters survey found as Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies maintained even larger supply cuts than called for by OPEC's latest deal.

OPEC and its allies will be looking to extend their oil output when they meet on June 25-26.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold back inside indecision zone and important resistance

Trading 03 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price is challenging short-term important resistance. Medium-term trend remains bearish as long as price is below $1,300, but Gold in the short-term has formed a double bottom as we mentioned in previous posts and is challenging resistance.

analytics5ccca32cb73f8.png

Red rectangle - horizontal resistance area

Blue line - short-term trend line resistance

Gold price is back inside the resistance area of $1,280-90. Price has formed a double bottom and has so far bounced closer to the important resistance level of $1,300. Support remains at $1,266 and if broken we will see a move towards $1,250-60 or lower. Breaking above $1,300 will open the way for a move towards $1,350-60 and higher.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Treasuries Move To The Upside After Seeing Initial Weakness

Trading 03 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries initially moved lower in reaction to the monthly jobs report but turned higher over the course of the trading session on Friday.

Bond prices bounced off their early lows and remained in positive territory for the rest of the day. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, dipped 2.1 basis points to 2.531 percent.

The pullback by treasuries came even though the Labor Department's closely watched monthly jobs report showed strong than expected job growth and the unemployment rate at a nearly 50-year low in April.

The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment surged up by 263,000 jobs in April following a downwardly revised increase of 189,000 jobs in March.

Economists had expected employment to climb by 185,000 jobs compared to the addition of 196,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

The report also said the unemployment rate fell to 3.6 percent in April from 3.8 percent in March, while economists had expected the rate to remain unchanged.

With the unexpected decrease, the unemployment rate slid to its lowest level since hitting 3.5 percent in December of 1969.

The drop in the unemployment rate was largely due to a significant contraction in the labor force, however, with the labor force shrinking by 490,000 people.

The Labor Department also said the average workweek for all employees on private non-farm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in April.

"The drop back in hours worked and the continued weakness in the household survey measure of employment suggests that the labor market is not quite as strong as that decent headline gain implies," said Michael Pearce, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics.

He added, "We still expect a slowdown in economic growth over the rest of the year to drag payroll employment growth lower."

Treasuries saw some further upside after a separate report from the Institute for Supply Management unexpectedly showed a continued slowdown in the pace of service sector growth in the month of April.

The ISM said its non-manufacturing index dropped to 55.5 in April after falling to 56.1 in March, with the index hitting its lowest level since a matching reading in August of 2017.

While a reading above 50 still indicates growth in the service sector, economists had expected the index to inch up to 57.0.

The economic calendar for next week starts off relatively quiet, although traders are likely to keep a close eye on reports on the U.S. trade deficit and producer and consumer price inflation.

Bond trading may also be impacted by reaction to the results of the Treasury Department's auctions of three-year and ten-year notes and thirty-year bonds.

The Treasury plans to sell $38 billion worth of three-year notes next Tuesday, $27 billion worth of ten-year notes next Wednesday and $19 billion worth of thirty-year bonds next Thursday.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly fake break out for the Dollar index

Trading 03 mai 2019 Commentaire »

The Dollar index managed to spread enthusiasm among Dollar bulls as last week we saw prices finally break out and above the December 2018 highs. This week however ended with an entire different sentiment.

analytics5ccca1db79c88.png

Red line - weekly horizontal resistance

The Dollar index closed this week below the broken red horizontal resistance canceling the break out we witnessed last week. However not all is lost yet for Dollar bulls. Yes the weekly close is not good for the bullish trend, but price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. The Dollar index continues to trade around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire decline. A rejection and bearish reversal from current levels will be confirmed with a break below 95.15. This would have longer-term bearish implications for the index. Until then bulls still hope that the bullish trend will be revived next week and price we recapture the red horizontal resistance trend line. A weekly close above 97.75 will open the way for a move towards 100.45.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Futures Rebound From 4-month Lows, Settle Notably Higher

Trading 03 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices edged higher on Friday, shrugging off early weakness and rebounding from over 4-month lows, as the dollar retreated and suffered a notable loss after a positive start.

The greenback gave up early gains after data showed an unexpected drop in U.S. service sector growth in the month of April.

The dollar index, which rose to 98.10 early on in the session on upbeat jobs data, dropped to a low of 97.49 and was last seen hovering around 97.55, down by about 0.3% from previous close.

Gold futures for June ended up $9.30, or 0.7%, at $1,281.30 an ounce.

On Thursday, gold futures for June ended down $12.20, or about 1%, at $1,272.00 an ounce, the lowest settlement since December 24, 2018.

Gold futures lost about 0.6% in the week.

Silver futures for July ended up $0.361, at $14.978 an ounce, while Copper futures for July settled at $2.8910 per pound, gaining $0.0395 for the session.

In U.S. economic news, data released by the U.S. Labor Department showed non-farm payroll employment surged up by 263,000 jobs in April following a downwardly revised increase of 189,000 jobs in March. Economists had expected employment to climb by 185,000 jobs compared to the addition of 196,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

The report also said unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in April from 3.8% in March. Economists had expected the rate to remain unchanged.

Meanwhile, a report released by the Institute for Supply Management on Friday unexpectedly showed a continued slowdown in the pace of U.S. service sector growth in the month of April.

The ISM said its non-manufacturing index dropped to 55.5 in April after falling to 56.1 in March, with the index hitting its lowest level since a matching reading in August of 2017. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 57.0.

The unexpected decrease by the headline index was partly due to a slowdown in new orders growth, as the new orders index dipped to 58.1 in April from 59.0 in March.

The employment index also slumped to 53.7 in April from 55.9 in March, pointing to a slowdown in the pace of job growth in the service sector.

The data contradicts the Labor Department's closely watched monthly jobs report, which showed employment in the service-providing sector jumped by 202,000 jobs in April after climbing by 158,000 jobs in March.

Meanwhile, the ISM said its reading on business activity in the service sector rose to 59.5 in April from 57.4 in the previous month.

Earlier this week, the ISM released a separate report showing U.S. manufacturing activity expanded at its slowest pace in well over two years in April. The ISM said its purchasing managers index slid to 52.8 in April after unexpectedly climbing to 55.3 in March, hitting its lowest level since October of 2016.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

May 3, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 03 mai 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5ccc764aee14a.jpg

Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) then 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci).

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed on April 23.

Currently, the price zone around 1.1235-1.1250 has turned into supply-zone to be watched for bearish rejection.

Two days ago, a recent bullish head and shoulders pattern was being demonstrated around 1.1140 on the H4 chart.

That's why, conservative traders were suggested to wait for another bullish pullback towards 1.1230-1.1250 for a valid SELL entry.

Today, bearish persistence below 1.1175 was needed to ensure further bearish decline. However, the market has failed to sustain bearish pressure below 1.1175.

Hence, Further bullish advancement is expected to occur towards the depicted SELL zone around 1.1235 to generate sufficient bearish pressure for another bearish swing.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for another bullish pullback towards 1.1235 for a valid SELL entry.

S/L should be placed around 1.1275 to narrow the risk.

Target levels to be located around 1.1170 and 1.1130.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Service Sector Growth Unexpectedly Slows In April

Trading 03 mai 2019 Commentaire »

A report released by the Institute for Supply Management on Friday unexpectedly showed a continued slowdown in the pace of U.S. service sector growth in the month of April.

The ISM said its non-manufacturing index dropped to 55.5 in April after falling to 56.1 in March, with the index hitting its lowest level since a matching reading in August of 2017.

While a reading above 50 still indicates growth in the service sector, economists had expected the index to inch up to 57.0.

The unexpected decrease by the headline index was partly due to a slowdown in new orders growth, as the new orders index dipped to 58.1 in April from 59.0 in March.

The employment index also slumped to 53.7 in April from 55.9 in March, pointing to a slowdown in the pace of job growth in the service sector.

The data contradicts the Labor Department's closely watched monthly jobs report, which showed employment in the service-providing sector jumped by 202,000 jobs in April after climbing by 158,000 jobs in March.

Meanwhile, the ISM said its reading on business activity in the service sector rose to 59.5 in April from 57.4 in the previous month.

"The non-manufacturing sector has experienced an uptick in business activity, but in general, there has been a leveling off," said Anthony Nieves, Chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

He added, "Respondents are still mostly optimistic about overall business conditions, but concerns remain about employment resources."

The report said the prices index tumbled to 55.7 in April from 58.7 in March, indicating a slowdown in the pace of price growth.

On Wednesday, the ISM released a separate report showing U.S. manufacturing activity expanded at its slowest pace in well over two years in April.

The ISM said its purchasing managers index slid to 52.8 in April after unexpectedly climbing to 55.3 in March, hitting its lowest level since October of 2016.

A reading above 50 still indicates growth in the manufacturing sector, although economists had expected the index to show a much more modest decrease to 55.0.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar Falls Further Following U.S. ISM Services PMI

Trading 03 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Following the release of the U.S. ISM services PMI for April at 10:00 am ET Friday, the greenback dropped further against its major counterparts.

The greenback was trading at 111.28 against the yen, 1.0181 against the franc, 1.3052 against the pound and 1.1175 against the euro around 10:02 am ET.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*ISM U.S. Non-Manufacturing Index Drops To 55.5 In April

Trading 03 mai 2019 Commentaire »

ISM U.S. Non-Manufacturing Index Drops To 55.5 In April


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com