Dollar Stays Firm Ahead Of Jobs Data

Trading 02 mai 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar gained in strength against most of its major rivals on Thursday, as traders reacted to recent comments by the Federal Reserve about outlook for interest rates, and looked ahead to the crucial monthly jobs data, due on Friday.

The dollar index rose to a high of 97.85, gaining about 0.22%.

Against the British Pound Sterling, the dollar was trading at 1.3033, recovering from a low of 1.3082.

The Bank of England today held the key interest rate and asset purchases unchanged and raised the growth outlook, while reiterating that policymakers would always aim to achieve the 2% inflation target.

According to survey data from IHS Markit, UK construction output rose for the first time since the start of the year in April, driven by a strong increase in residential work, but overall activity remained subdued amid weaker demand and optimism.

The euro was down by about 0.18% at $1.1176, weighed down by data that showed eurozone's manufacturing sector contracted for a third successive month in April.

The survey data from IHS Markit showed that Eurozone's manufacturing sector shrunk for a third successive month in April, albeit at a slower pace.

The Manufacturing purchasing managers' index, or PMI, rose to 47.9 in April from 47.5 in March. The flash reading was 47.8 in April.

"The survey's output index is indicative of factory production falling at a quarterly rate of approximately 1%, setting the scene for the goods producing sector to act as a major drag on the economy in the second quarter," Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said.

The dollar was up against the Japanese yen as well, with a unit of greenback fetching 111.50 yen, as against 111.38 yen overnight.

The dollar was up 0.14% against the Aussie at 0.6998, and 0.18% against the loonie at 1.3470.

Against Swiss franc, the greenback gained about 0.14% after data showed Swiss retail sales declined at the steepest pace in six months in March

A dollar fetched 9.5759 Swedish Krona, up 0.34% from 9.5434.

In U.S. economic news today, a report from the Commerce Department said factory orders rose 1.9% in the month, after falling by a revised 0.3% in February. Economists had expected orders to surge up by 1.5%, compared to the 0.5% drop originally reported for the previous month.

Durable goods orders rose by 2.6% in March, while orders for non-durable goods showed a 1.1% increase in the month. In February, durable goods orders fell 1.3%, while non-durable goods orders were up 0.8%.

A report from the Labor Department showed a much bigger than expected 3.6% increase in labor productivity in the first quarter. Productivity climbed by a revised 1.3% in the fourth quarter of the previous financial year.

Economists had expected production to jump by 2.2% compared to the 1.9% increase that had been reported for the previous quarter.

Another report from the Labor Department showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits came in at 230,000, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised level of 230,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to dip to 215,000.

On Friday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release its more closely watched report on the employment situation in the month of April.


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Oil Futures Decline Sharply, Settle At 1-month Low

Trading 02 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures fell to their lowest level in about a month on Thursday weighed down by data showing record U.S. crude production and inventories.

The jump in U.S. crude production has helped offset concerns about any shortage in supply due to the expiration of U.S. waivers on Iranian oil sanctions.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for June ended down $1.79, or 2.8%, at $61.81 a barrel, the lowest settlement since April 1. Futures fell to a low of 60.95 earlier in the session, losing about 4%.

Brent Crude oil futures, which declined to $69.68 a barrel, recovered a bit to $70.75, but was still down by about 2% from previous close.

On Wednesday, WTI crude oil futures for June settled at $63.60 a barrel, losing $0.31 for the session.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's report on Wednesday showed a substantial build in crude oil inventories, at 9.9 million barrels for the last week of April.

The report said, U.S. crude inventories stood at 471 million barrels as of last week, the most in nineteen months. Domestic oil production rose last week to a record 12.3 million barrels a day.


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Treasuries Extend Pullback Seen Late In Yesterday's Session

Trading 02 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries moved notably lower over the course of the trading day on Thursday, extending the pullback seen late in the previous session.

Bond prices came under pressure in morning trading and remained firmly negative throughout the afternoon. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 4.1 basis points to 2.552 percent.

The weakness among treasuries came as traders continued to react to yesterday's remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggesting the central bank is not likely to lower interest rates in the near future as some had hoped.

In his post-monetary policy meeting press conference, Powell said the Fed sees "transitory factors" contributing to recent low inflation readings.

Powell said the Fed would take persistently low inflation into account when setting policy but currently expects inflation to return to the 2 percent objective.

Traders were also digesting a batch of largely upbeat U.S. economic data, including a Labor Department report showing a spike in labor productivity.

The Labor Department said productivity surged up by 3.6 percent in the first quarter after climbing by a downwardly revised 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter.

Economists had expected production to jump by 2.2 percent compared to the 1.9 percent increase that had been reported for the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, the report also said unit labor costs dropped by 0.9 percent in the first quarter after soaring by 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter.

The pullback in unit labor costs came as a surprise to economists, who had expected costs to climb by 1.5 percent during the quarter.

"The good news is the economy is entirely capable of producing the kind of productivity necessary to keep inflation in check if growth accelerates. Hence, we can have faster growth, and real wage increases, too," said FTN Financial Chief Economist Chris Low.

He added, "The bad news, as featured prominently in yesterday's post-FOMC press conference, the Fed will continue to fight to prevent either from becoming a sustained reality, for our own good, of course."

A separate report from the Commerce Department showed new orders for manufactured goods jumped by more than expected in March amid a substantial rebound in orders for transportation equipment.

The Commerce Department said factory orders spiked by 1.9 percent in March after falling by a revised 0.3 percent in February. Economists had expected orders to surge up by 1.5 percent.

Trading on Friday is likely to be driven by reaction to the Labor Department's report on the employment situation in the month of April.

Employment is expected to increase by 185,000 jobs in April following the addition of 196,000 jobs in March, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.8 percent.

The jobs data is likely to overshadow a separate report on service sector activity, which is expected to show a modest acceleration in the pace of growth.


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Gold Futures Settle At Over 4-month Low

Trading 02 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices drifted lower on Thursday, weighed down by a slightly stronger dollar and the Fed's comments on Wednesday that dashed hopes for a rate cut in the near term.

The dollar index rose to a high of 97.85 in late morning trades and was seen hovering around 97.80 a little while ago, up nearly 0.2% from previous close.

Gold futures for June ended down $12.20, or 1%, at $1,272.00 an ounce, the lowest settlement since December 24, 2018.

Gold futures for June settled at $1,284.20 an ounce on Thursday, netting a loss of $1.50, or 0.1%.

Silver futures for July ended down $0.112, at $14.617 an ounce, while Copper futures for July settled at $2.7795, down $0.0220 from previous close.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, but played down concerns over recent soft inflation, suggesting it's unlikely to either raise or cut rates in coming months.

In economic news today, a report from the Commerce Department said new orders for U.S. manufactured goods jumped by more than expected in the month of March amid substantial rebound in orders for transportation equipment.

The report said factory orders rose 1.9% in the month, after falling by a revised 0.3% in February. Economists had expected orders to surge up by 1.5%, compared to the 0.5% drop originally reported for the previous month.

Durable goods orders rose by 2.6% in March, while orders for non-durable goods showed a 1.1% increase in the month. In February, durable goods orders fell 1.3%, while non-durable goods orders were up 0.8%.

A report from the Labor Department showed a much bigger than expected 3.6% increase in labor productivity in the first quarter. Productivity climbed by a revised 1.3% in the fourth quarter of the previous financial year.

Economists had expected production to jump by 2.2% compared to the 1.9% increase that had been reported for the previous quarter.

Another report from the Labor Department showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits came in at 230,000, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised level of 230,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to dip to 215,000.

On Friday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release its more closely watched report on the employment situation in the month of April.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

May 2, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 02 mai 2019 Commentaire »

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Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) then 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci).

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed on April 23.

Currently, the price zone around 1.1235-1.1250 has turned into supply-zone to be watched for bearish rejection.

Two days ago, a recent bullish head and shoulders pattern was being demonstrated around 1.1140 on the H4 chart.

That's why, conservative traders were suggested to wait for another bullish pullback towards 1.1230-1.1250 for a valid SELL entry.

Today, bearish persistence below 1.1175 is needed to ensure further bearish decline. Otherwise, another bullish pullback maybe executed towards 1.1190-1.1210.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders were suggested to have a valid SELL entry anywhere around 1.1250. It's already running in profits.

S/L should be lowered to 1.1220 to secure some profits.

Target levels to be located around 1.1170 and 1.1130.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for EURUSD for May 2, 2019

Trading 02 mai 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD got rejected at the 1.1260 level where we find the upper channel boundary resistance. Price has now pulled back towards short-term support of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the last leg higher from 1.1112.

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Red line - major resistance trend line

At 1.1170 we find important short-term Fibonacci support. At 1.1220 we find resistance and breaking above it will open the way for a move towards 1.1260 and the major red trend line resistance. Bulls need to reverse trend to the upside and place a higher low. This will increase the chances of breaking above 1.1260-1.13 and reversing medium-term trend. On the other hand, bears will need to keep prices below 1.1270 and the pair will eventually fall towards 1.11 or lower.

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Short-term technical analysis of Gold for 2 May, 2019

Trading 02 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price made a low at $1,266 making a double bottom so far as prices bounce towards $1,270. Trend remains bearish in short and medium-term trend. Key level is at $1,300.

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Red rectangle - horizontal resistance (previous support)

Blue line - resistance trend line

Gold price is back to its 2019 lows. Gold is forming a double bottom as long as $1,266 holds. Price is below key level of $1,290-$1,300. Any bounce towards that area is considered a selling opportunity. We remain bearish short- and medium-term as long as price is below $1,300.Target for Gold is at $1,250-60 and maybe $1,225. Breaking above $1,290 will increase the chances of breaking above $1,290. Therefore I would not be short above $1,290.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Factory Orders Rebound More Than Expected In March

Trading 02 mai 2019 Commentaire »

A report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday showed new orders for U.S. manufactured goods jumped by more than expected in the month of March amid a substantial rebound in orders for transportation equipment.

The Commerce Department said factory orders spiked by 1.9 percent in March after falling by a revised 0.3 percent in February.

Economists had expected orders to surge up by 1.5 percent compared to the 0.5 percent drop originally reported for the previous month.

The bigger than expected rebound in factory orders came as orders for transportation equipment soared by 7.0 percent in March after plunging by 2.9 percent in February.

Excluding orders for transportation equipment, factory orders still showed a notable 0.8 percent increase in March after rising by 0.3 percent in February.

The report said durable goods orders shot up by 2.6 percent in March after slumping by 1.3 percent in February, reflecting a slight downward revision from the 2.7 percent jump reported last week.

Orders for non-durable goods also showed a significant 1.1 percent increase in March after climbing by 0.8 percent in the previous month.

The Commerce Department said shipments of manufactured goods also climbed by 0.7 percent in March after rising by 0.5 percent in February.

Inventories of manufactured goods also rose by 0.4 percent in March following a 0.3 percent increase in the previous month.

With inventories and shipments both rising, the inventories-to-shipments ratio was unchanged from the previous month at 1.36.


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Dollar Little Changed Following U.S. Factory Orders

Trading 02 mai 2019 Commentaire »

After the release of U.S. factory orders for March at 10:00 am ET Thursday, the greenback changed little against its major counterparts.

The greenback was trading at 111.53 against the yen, 1.0194 against the franc, 1.1186 against the euro and 1.3029 against the pound around 10:05 am ET.


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*U.S. Factory Orders Surge Up 1.9% In March

Trading 02 mai 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Factory Orders Surge Up 1.9% In March


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