U.S. Dollar Turning In Lackluster Performance Ahead Of Key Events

Trading 29 avr 2019 Commentaire »

With traders reluctant to make significant moves ahead of key events later this week, the U.S. dollar has turned in a relatively lackluster performance during trading on Monday.

The U.S. dollar is trading at 111.67 yen compared to the 111.58 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Friday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.1184 compared to last Friday's $1.1151.

The choppy trading comes as traders look ahead to the announcement of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, although the accompanying statement and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's subsequent press conference are still likely to attract attention.

Traders are also likely to keep a close eye on the Labor Department's monthly jobs report scheduled to be released on Friday.

Economists expect the report to show an increase of about 180,000 jobs in April compared to the addition of 196,000 jobs in March. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.8 percent.

Reports on consumer confidence, pending home sales, and manufacturing and service sector activity may also impact trading in the coming days.

On the U.S. economic front, a Commerce Department report showed a smaller than expected uptick in U.S. personal income in the month of March, although the report also showed a significant increase in personal spending during the month.

The Commerce Department said personal income inched up by 0.1 percent in March after edging up by 0.2 percent in February. Economists had expected income to climb by 0.4 percent.

Meanwhile, the report said personal spending jumped by 0.9 percent in March after ticking up by 0.1 percent in February and rising by an upwardly revised 0.3 percent in January.

The Commerce Department provided new data for both February and March in this month's report due to the impact of the recent government shutdown.

Economists had been expecting personal spending to rise by 0.2 percent in February and climb by 0.7 percent in March.


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Gold Prices Retreat From One-Week Highs

Trading 29 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices were down on Monday but held near one-week highs on hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve may cut interest rates.

Spot gold dropped 0.45 percent to $1,281.02 per ounce, after having hit its highest level since April 16 at $1,288.59 in the previous session.

A rally in the dollar faltered as expectations for a Fed rate cut increased after last week's GDP data showed that a gauge of inflation slowed from the previous quarter.

Although the U.S. economy grew much faster than forecast in the first quarter, Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE price index, slowed notably.

The data showed that core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, slowed to 1.3 percent in the first quarter from 1.8 percent.

Investors now await the Fed's two-day meeting concluding on Wednesday.

No rate change is expected, but the accompanying statement and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's subsequent press conference are likely to attract attention.


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Crude Oil Prices Rebound On Tainted Oil Report

Trading 29 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices bounced higher Friday after early weakness following reports that a Russian oil supply to customers in Europe was deliberately tainted, artificially inflating the price.

West Texas Intermediate advanced $0.77 or 1.23 percent to $63.26 per barrel, shrugging off an early move to the downside.

The early selling pressure came after U.S. President Donald Trump told producer club OPEC to lower oil prices and also said he had spoken with Saudi Arabia about reducing the impact of lower Iranian oil exports by increasing flows elsewhere.

The morning slide extended losses from last week after crude prices fell for three straight sessions on concerns for outlook of the global economy.

Trump also indicated that he had spoken with Saudi Arabia about reducing the impact of lower Iranian oil exports by increasing flows elsewhere. The statement triggered a selloff, putting a temporary ceiling on a 40 percent price rally in oil prices since the start of the year.

Market participants expect Saudi Arabia to increase output as soon as May to offset the lost Iranian crude oil.


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Treasuries Pull Back After Report Shows Jump In Personal Spending

Trading 29 avr 2019 Commentaire »

After trending higher over the past few sessions, treasuries gave back some ground during the trading day on Monday.

Bond prices moved lower early in the session and saw some further downside as the day progressed. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 3.1 basis points to 2.536 percent.

The pullback by treasuries came following the release of a report from the Commerce Department showing a significant increase in U.S. personal spending in the month of March.

The Commerce Department said personal spending jumped by 0.9 percent in March after ticking up by 0.1 percent in February and rising by an upwardly revised 0.3 percent in January.

Real spending, which is adjusted to remove price changes, also increased by 0.7 percent in March after coming in unchanged in February.

"We already know that real consumption growth slowed to only 1.2% annualized in the first quarter, from 2.5% in the fourth," said Andrew Hunter, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics. "But the monthly data reveal that spending finished the quarter on a strong note."

He added, "Even penciling in modest 0.2% monthly gains from April to June, real consumption growth is now on course to rebound to more than 3% annualized in the second quarter."

The report also showed personal income inched up by 0.1 percent in March after edging up by 0.2 percent in February. Economists had expected income to climb by 0.4 percent.

With spending increasing by much more than income, personal saving as a percentage of disposable income tumbled to 6.5 percent in March from 7.3 percent in February.

Meanwhile, a reading on inflation said to be preferred by the Federal Reserve showed the annual rate of core consumer price growth slowed to 1.6 percent in March from 1.7 percent in December.

Trading on Tuesday may be impacted by reaction to reports on home prices, consumer confidence and pending home sales.


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Short-term technical analysis of EURUSD for April 29, 2019

Trading 29 avr 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD as expected from last week, we were warned by the short-term reversal signs, is approaching our short-term target of 1.12. Medium-term trend remains bearish as long as price is below 1.1350.

analytics5cc75530ab8e5.png

Blue line - major resistance trend line

Red rectangle - short-term support

EURUSD is moving higher making higher highs and higher lows. Price reversed short-term trend after touching our lower wedge boundary at 1.1115 as mentioned in previous posts. EURUSD is moving towards our first target area of 38% Fibonacci retracement of the latest decline. Major resistance is at 1.13-1.1350 area and as long as we remain below this level any bounce is considered selling opportunity.

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Technical analysis of Gold for April 29, 2019

Trading 29 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price got rejected after the bounce at the $1,288 area. Gold price bounced towards resistance of $1,280-90 from $1,266 as a back test as expected. Medium-term trend remains bearish.

analytics5cc754242feb9.png

Red line - major resistance trend line

Blue lines -bullish divergence

Green rectangle - resistance (previous support)

Gold price is making higher highs and higher lows in the short-term after bottoming near $1,266. Gold price so far rejected at the resistance area of $1,280-90. Medium-term trend remains bearish as long as price is below the red downward sloping trend line resistance now at $1,300. The RSI is making higher highs and higher lows holding above the blue upward sloping trend line. As long as this trend line holds I expect Gold bulls to make another try higher towards the major red trend line resistance. Resistance at $1,288 if broken I would expect Gold price to move closer or even test $1,300. $1,274 is short-term support. Failure to stay above it will open the way towards our $1,250-60 target area or lower.

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April 29, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 29 avr 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5cc7278faa793.jpg

On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

On March 11, a weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved.

Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27.

Instead, the depicted recent bearish channel was established.

Significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line demonstrated significant bearish rejection.

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish with intermediate-term bearish targets projected towards 1.2900, 1.2800 and 1.2750 where the lower limit of the depicted channel comes again to meet the GBPUSD pair.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should be waiting for a bullish pullback towards 1.3035 for a valid SELL entry.

TP levels to be located around 1.2950, 1.2905 and 1.2800 and S/L to be located above 1.3100.

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April 29, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 29 avr 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5cc7231832ef0.jpg

Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) then 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci).

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed few days ago.

Conservative traders were advised to wait for a bullish pullback towards the newly-established supply zone around 1.1235 for a valid SELL entry.

On the long-term, bearish persistence below 1.1235 enhances further bearish decline towards 1.1170 then 1.1115 if enough bearish momentum is expressed.

The current price levels are quite risky for having new sell orders.Moreover, a recent bullish head and shoulders pattern is being demonstrated on the H4 chart.

That's why, conservative traders should be waiting for another bullish pullback towards 1.1230-1.1250 for a valid SELL entry.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Erodes Sharply As Industrial Confidence Plummets

Trading 29 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Eurozone economic sentiment weakened for a tenth straight month in April to its lowest level in nearly three years, amid a sharp deterioration in the morale in industry to its weakest level in about five years.

The economic sentiment index decreased to 104 from 105.6 in March, survey data from the European Commission showed on Monday. Economists had expected a score of 105.

The latest reading was the weakest since September 2016, when the score was 103.8.

The industrial confidence index eased sharply to -4.1 from -1.6, marking the lowest reading since December 2014, when it was at the same level.

Meanwhile, the services measure was steady at 11.5. Economists had forecast readings of -1.7 and 11.5, respectively.

The consumer confidence index fell to -7.9 from -7.2, in line with its flash estimate.

Sentiment eroded in both construction and retail trade sectors. Separately, the European Commission reported that the business?climate indicator for the euro area decreased for a second month in April to 0.42 from to 0.54 in March. Economists had expected a score of 0.49. "Although incoming data hasn't exactly turned a corner yet,?hope for a growth pickup in the coming months remains alive," ING economist Bert Colijn said.

Data released by the European Central Bank on Monday revealed that the pace of growth in loans to households slowed to 3.2 percent from 3.3 percent annually in February, and matching the rate in January.

Growth in lending to non-financial businesses eased to 3.5 percent from 3.8 percent.

The purchasing managers' surveys had shown that the private sector growth slowed for a second successive month in April amid a decline in manufacturing activity. New export orders fell sharply for the seventh straight month.


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Hong Kong Trade Gap Widens

Trading 29 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Hong Kong's merchandise trade deficit widened in March as exports fell faster than imports, preliminary data from the Census and Statistics Department showed on Monday.

The visible trade deficit rose to HK$59.2 billion from HK$55.5 billion in the same month last year. Exports decreased 1.2 percent year-on-year and imports fell 0.1 percent. On a month-on-month basis, exports jumped 50.3 percent and imports surged 45.2 percent. The trade deficit climbed to HK$59.2 billion from HK$48.8 billion in February.

In the first quarter, the trade deficit shrunk to HK$118.7 billion from HK$130.3 billion. Exports fell 2.4 percent year-on-year and imports decreased 3.2 percent. Merchandise exports remained subdued in recent months, as the adverse external environment continued to dampen manufacturing and trading activities in the region, a government spokesman said. "The external trading environment will remain challenging in the near term. While reportedly the US-Mainland trade talks have made progress, the global economy, being overshadowed by various uncertainties, has lost some momentum," he said.

The government will remain vigilant, he added.


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