Dollar Stays Firm

Trading 25 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar gained in further strength on Thursday, with the world's largest economy showing signs of growth even as growth outlook in several other parts of the globe continue to remain uncertain.

While a report showing a jump in durable goods orders in March supported the dollar, a mixed bag of earnings reports and data showing a bigger than expected increase in initial jobless claims last week limited the greenback's rise a bit.

The dollar index rose to 98.32, its highest level since mid May 2017, before paring some gains and dropping to 98.18, still up 0.14% from previous close.

The euro was down 0.2% at $1.1135. In its economic bulletin, the European Central Bank warned of slowing global growth and downside risks stemming from trade tensions.

The British Pound Sterling was down 0.21%, at $1.1133.

The Japanese Yen, which had settled at 112.19 a dollar on Wednesday, strengthened to 111.66 a dollar.

Against the Aussie, the greenback was up slightly, with the former rebounding after a sharp setback in the previous session.

The dollar was slightly lower against the loonie, which recovered after plunging on Wednesday following Bank of Canada's dovish statement on rates.

Against the Swiss franc, the dollar gained about 0.03% at 1.0207.

In U.S. economic news today, data from the Labor Department showed initial jobless claims climbed to 230,000, an increase of 37,000 from the previous week's revised level of 193,000.

Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 200,000 from the 192,000 originally reported for the previous week.

The bigger than expected increase came after the number of jobless claims in the previous week represented their lowest level since hitting 182,000 in September of 1969.

Meanwhile, a report from the Commerce Department said durable goods orders surged up by 2.7% in March after tumbling by a revised 1.1% in February.

A significant rebound in orders for transportation equipment contributed to the surge in durable goods orders in the month. Economists had expected durable goods orders to climb by 0.8% compared to the 1.6% slump originally reported for the previous month.

Markets now await the U.S. fourth quarter GDP data, due on Friday.


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Oil Futures End Lower For Second Straight Day

Trading 25 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday, extending losses to a second successive day.

Oil prices fell as recent data from the Energy Information Administration that showed an increase in crude inventory in the U.S. outweighed concerns over any shortage of supply due to the U.S. decision to end all exemptions for sanctions against Iran.

However, a halt of Russian oil exports to Poland and Germany via the Druzhba pipeline due to quality concerns supported oil and limited the decline in prices. Czech Republic too has halted Russian imports of crude through a Russian pipeline.

According to reports, Russia expects to resolve the issue of contaminated crude through the said pipeline by Monday.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for June ended down $0.68, or about 1%, at $65.21 a barrel.

On Wednesday, crude oil futures ended down $0.41, or 0.6%, at $65.89 a barrel, after having spurted to a near six-month high of $66.60 a session earlier.

According to the weekly data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday, crude stockpiles in the U.S. rose by 5.48 million barrels in the week ended April 19, compared to forecasts for an increase of about 1.26 million barrels.

A day earlier, the American Petroleum Institute said that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.9 million barrels in the week to April 19.


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Treasuries Finish Lackluster Session Modestly Lower

Trading 25 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries showed a lack of direction throughout much the trading day on Thursday before finishing the session modestly lower.

Bond prices moved to the downside in afternoon trading after spending the morning lingering near the unchanged line. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, ticked up by 1.2 basis points to 2.534 percent.

The modest pullback seen in afternoon trading came after the Treasury Department revealed its auction of $32 billion worth of seven-year notes attracted slightly below average demand.

The seven-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.426 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.49, while the ten previous seven-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.52.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

Trading activity remained relatively subdued, however, as traders continued to digest a mixed batch of U.S. economic data released earlier in the day.

The Commerce Department released a report showing durable goods orders jumped by much more than expected in the month of March, reflecting a significant rebound in orders for transportation equipment,

The report said durable goods orders surged up by 2.7 percent in March after tumbling by a revised 1.1 percent in February.

Economists had expected durable goods orders to climb by 0.8 percent compared to the 1.6 percent slump originally reported for the previous month.

Excluding the spike in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders rose by 0.4 percent in March after edging down by a revised 0.2 percent in February.

Ex-transportation orders had been expected to inch up by 0.2 percent compared to the 0.1 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department released a separate report showing initial jobless claims rebounded by more than anticipated in the week ended April 20.

The Labor Department said initial jobless claims climbed to 230,000, an increase of 37,000 from the previous week's revised level of 193,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 200,000.

The bigger than expected increase came after the number of jobless claims in the previous week represented their lowest level since hitting 182,000 in September of 1969.

Trading on Friday may be impacted by reaction to a preliminary reading on first quarter GDP, with the pace of growth expected to slow to 2.1 percent from 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter.


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Gold Futures Settle Marginally Up

Trading 25 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Gold futures ended slightly higher with investors making cautious moves, weighing earnings reports and economic data from across the globe.

The earnings season got off to a solid start last week with several top notch U.S. companies coming out with strong results, but earnings reports over the past few days have been mixed, pushing investors into a wait and watch mode.

Disappointing data from Germany and South Korea rendered movements in stock markets a bit sluggish and this triggered the modest upmove in gold prices.

The dollar, which rose to 22-month high yesterday, extended its march up north and hit a near 2-year high today. The dollar index touched 98.32 before easing to 98.18, paring some gains.

Gold futures for June ended at $1,289.70, gaining $0.30 for the session.

Silver futures for May ended up $0.037, at $14.879 an ounce, while Copper futures for May settled at $2.8615 a dollar, netting a loss of $0.0485.

South Korea's gross domestic product contracted a seasonally adjusted 0.3% on quarter in the first quarter of 2019, the Bank of Korea said in Thursday's advanced estimate.

That follows the 1% increase in the three months prior.

On an annualized yearly basis, GDP climbed 1.8%, slowing from the 2.7% increase in the previous three months.

Real gross domestic income picked up 0.2% on quarter because of an improvement in terms of trade, the bank said.

In U.S. economic news today, data from the Labor Department showed initial jobless claims climbed to 230,000, an increase of 37,000 from the previous week's revised level of 193,000.

Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 200,000 from the 192,000 originally reported for the previous week.

The bigger than expected increase came after the number of jobless claims in the previous week represented their lowest level since hitting 182,000 in September of 1969.

Meanwhile, a report from the Commerce Department said durable goods orders surged up by 2.7% in March after tumbling by a revised 1.1% in February.

A significant rebound in orders for transportation equipment contributed to the surge in durable goods orders in the month. Economists had expected durable goods orders to climb by 0.8% compared to the 1.6% slump originally reported for the previous month.


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Treasury Auctions $32 Billion Worth Of Seven-Year Notes

Trading 25 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The Treasury Department finished off this week's series of long-term securities auctions with the sale of $32 billion worth of seven-year notes on Thursday, attracting roughly average demand.

The seven-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.426 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.49.

Last month, the Treasury also sold $32 billion worth of seven-year notes, drawing a high yield of 2.281 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.54.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous seven-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.52.

Today's seven-year note auction came after the Treasury sold $40 billion worth of two-year notes on Tuesday and $41 billion worth of five-year notes on Wednesday.


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April 25, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 25 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

Since then, the EURUSD pair has been moving within the depicted channel with slight bearish tendency.

On March 7th, recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated.

On March 18, a significant bullish attempt was executed above 1.1380 (the upper limit of the Highlighted-channel) demonstrating a false/temporary bullish breakout.

On March 22, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.1280 then 1.1220.

Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200. This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where recent bearish rejection was being demonstrated.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) then 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci).

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed few days ago.

Conservative traders were advised to wait for a bullish pullback towards the newly-established supply zone around 1.1235 for a valid SELL entry.

On the long-term, bearish persistence below 1.1235 enhances further bearish decline towards 1.1150, 1.1085 then 1.1050 and if enough bearish momentum is expressed.

Trade recommendations :

A valid SELL entry was suggested around 1.1235 upon the recent bullish pullback.

Remaining TP levels to be located around 1.1115 and 1.1050. SL should lowered to 1.1170 to secure more profits.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

April 25, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 25 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27.

Instead, the depicted recent bearish channel was established.

Significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

On March 29, the price levels near 1.2980 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line demonstrated significant bearish rejection.

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish towards 1.2900, 1.2800 and 1.2750 where the lower limit of the depicted channel comes to meet the GBPUSD pair.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should be waiting for a bullish pullback towards 1.3045-1.3080 for a valid SELL entry.

TP levels to be located around 1.2950, 1.2905 and 1.2800 and S/L to be located above 1.3100.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for April 25, 2019

Trading 25 avr 2019 Commentaire »

BTC price has been trading upwards in past few hours and the level of $5.462 got tested. There is potential for more upside on the near term.

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Red line – major resistance trend line * broken

Green rectangle – strong support based on price action

Blue horizontal line – Major short-term resistance

BTC price broke above the important $5.443 resistance trendline and on that way confirmed further strength. Most recently that price did reject from the strong support zone (green rectangle) at $5.368, which is sign that buyers came into the market. MACD is showing bullish divergence, which is another sign of the potential strength. Upward target at the price of $5.596.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Turkish Central Bank Drops Hawkish Stance

Trading 25 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Turkey's central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged for a fifth consecutive session in Thursday and omitted its hawkish stance from the forward guidance, sending the lira further lower.

The Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Murat Cetinkaya, decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 24 percent, the TCMB said in a statement. The decision was in line with economists' expectations.

The previous change in the rate was a massive hike in September. The rate was raised from 17.75 percent to 24 percent, despite strong pressure from the government for a rate cut.

The central bank reiterated that it will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability objective.

"Factors affecting inflation will be closely monitored and monetary stance will be determined to keep inflation in line with the targeted path," the bank said. Signaling a dovish shift, which took economists by surprise given the weaker lira, the bank dropped its earlier pledge that "further monetary tightening will be delivered" from its forward guidance. The lira weakened nearly 1 percent since the decision announcement.

"While Turkey's current account position has improved markedly since last year's currency crisis, the country's large external debts mean that the lira is still one of the most vulnerable EM currencies to bouts of investor risk aversion," Capital Economics economist Jason Tuvey said. Weaker-than-expected global growth can lead to a deterioration in risk sentiment and there is the threat of renewed political turmoil due to disputed local election results in Istanbul and tensions with the US, the economist pointed out.

"In this environment, the central bank's scope to cut interest rates is likely to be more limited than most anticipate," Tuvey said. The economist said any periodic bouts of monetary tightening due to sell-offs in the lira are likely to prompt the bank to the use of the corridor again, in order to avoid the wrath of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Citing recently released data, the bank said the rebalancing trend in the economy has continued. External demand maintains its relative strength and the current account balance is expected to maintain its improving trend.

Meanwhile, economic activity displays a slow pace, partly due to tight financial conditions, the bank said.

Inflation indicators are showing some improvement, thanks to developments in domestic demand, but higher food and import prices and rising inflation expectations suggest continued risks to price stability, the TCMB said.

"Accordingly, the Committee has decided to maintain the tight monetary policy stance until inflation outlook displays a significant improvement," the bank said.


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EURUSD: Orders for durable goods in the US have grown, which is a good signal for the US economy

Trading 25 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The US dollar once again rose against the European currency and the British pound after the report on the demand for durable goods in the United States. Just excellent performance over the past seven months, which exceeded all expectations of economists, only increased the demand for the US dollar.

The report indicates that the growth was due to increased orders for civil and military aircraft, which are very volatile.

According to the US Department of Commerce, orders for durable goods, which have a service life of more than three years, in March of this year increased by 2.7% compared with February and amounted to $258.52 billion. Economists had expected orders to grow only by 0.8% in March compared with the previous month.

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Data for February has also been revised for the better. The report indicates that the February drop in orders was 1.1%, while the initial estimate stated a decline of 1.6%.

If we take the general data for the 1st quarter of 2019, then the demand for durable goods increased by 3% compared with the same period of 2018.

As mentioned earlier, orders for non-defense goods, excluding aircraft, rose by 1.3% in March, after rising by 0.1% in February. For the first quarter, orders in this category increased by 2.8% compared to the same period in 2018.

Orders for civil aircraft in March increased by 31.2% compared with February, and orders for defense goods increased by 7.4% compared with the previous month.

Given the good growth rates of orders, everything suggests that the investments of American companies in the 1st quarter of this year will also show an excellent result, which will benefit the American economy and lead to its growth.

Today, a report on the labor market was also published, in which optimism among traders diminished compared with previous figures.

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time has increased dramatically. Despite the growth, the data are only weekly and do not greatly affect the overall situation.

Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week from April 14 to 20 increased by 37,000 and amounted to 230,000. Economists had expected the number of applications to be 200,000.

The moving average of applications for four weeks also increased by 4,500 and amounted to 206,000.

Such data also indicate a small deficit in the labor market, as employers do not want to dismiss their employees. Let me remind you that last month, the unemployment rate in the United States was 3.8%.

As for the technical outlook for the EURUSD pair for the next few days, the sellers will still strive to upgrade the major support level at 1.1080, and the buyers will try to reach the resistance of 1.1180, which could put further bearish momentum in risky assets into question.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com