Dollar Rises On Strong Economic Data

Trading 18 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar rose against major currencies on Friday, buoyed by stronger than expected U.S. retail sales data. A drop in initial jobless claims and weak eurozone manufacturing data too contributed to the greenback's strength.

The dollar index gained about 0.5% at 97.49 at the day's high.

Against the euro, the dollar strengthened to $1.1232, up 0.57%.

The British Pound Sterling was also notably weak against the dollar. A pound was fetching $1.299, 0.4% less than previous close.

The dollar was up 0.4% against the Aussie with the pair trading at 1.2990 and was up 0.3% against the loonie at 1.3383.

Against Swiss franc, the greenback gained about 0.5%, while against Swedish Krona, it was up 0.6%.

The dollar was down slightly against the Japanese currency, with a unit fetching 112.00 yen. Earlier, it was trading at 111.76 yen.

In economic news, the Conference Board's leading economic index climbed by a more than expected 0.4% in March, after inching up by a revised 0.1% in February. Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.3% compared to the 0.2% uptick originally reported for the previous month.

A report from the Labor Department showed initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly edged lower in the week ended April 13th. The data said jobless claims dropped by 5,000 to 192,000 in the month, the lowest level since hitting 182,000 in September of 1969.

Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 205,000 from the 196,000 originally reported in the previous week.

According to a report from the Commerce Department, retail sales in the U.S. spiked by much more than expected in the month of March, soaring by 1.6%, after edging down by 0.2% in February. Economists had expected retail sales to climb by 0.9%.

Business inventories in the U.S. rose by 0.3% in February after jumping by an upwardly revised 0.9% in January.according to a report released by the Commerce Department. Economists had expected inventories to climb by 0.4 percent compared to the 0.8 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.

Meanwhile, a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed the pace of growth in regional manufacturing slowed by more than anticipated in the month of April following a significant rebound in the previous month.

The Philly Fed said its index for current manufacturing activity in the region dropped to 8.5 in April after jumping to 13.7 in March.

In Eurozone news, eurozone private sector expanded at the slowest pace for the second successive month in April as manufacturing contracted and service sector growth slowed, preliminary data from the IHS Markit survey showed.

The Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index fell to a three-month low of 51.3 from 51.6 in March.

Employment growth rose slightly but remained at the lowest since 2016.

Eurozone business expectation declined for a second successive month to the lowest since January.

The manufacturing PMI rose to a two-month high of 47.8 from 47.5 in March and the services PMI hit a three-month low of 52.5 from 53.3 in March.

In the U.K., retail sales grew at a faster rate than expected in March, data from the Office for National Statistics showed. Retail sales grew 1.1% month-on-month in March, after a 0.6% rise in February.


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Oil Futures Settle Modestly Higher

Trading 18 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures edged higher on Thursday and eked out marginal gains for the truncated week, with traders weighing near term crude supply and demand prospects and making cautious moves.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for May ended up $0.24, or about 0.4%, at $64.00 a barrel.

On Wednesday, crude oil futures for May ended down $0.29, or 0.45%, at $63.76 a barrel.

Tighter supply due to U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, the drop in oil rigs count, the decline in U.S. crude stockpiles - the first in four weeks - and a report showing crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia declined by 277,000 barrels a day to below 7 million barrels per day in February, supported crude prices.

Another positive for crude was a report showing a fall in shipments from Saudi Arabia.

On the economic front, the latest batch of data out of the U.S. was buoyant. However, weak data from eurozone has raised concerns about energy demand.

Reports showed eurozone business activity barely grew in April. While Germany's economy is struggling to grow, France has stabilized somewhat after contracting in March.

The Energy Information Administration's data on Wednesday showed crude stockpiles dropped by 1.4 million barrels in the week ended April 12, slightly more than the expected fall.

A report from Baker Hughes showed today that oil rigs count in the U.S. dropped by 8 this week, bringing the total count down to 825.


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Treasuries Move To The Upside Ahead Of Easter Weekend

Trading 18 avr 2019 Commentaire »

After ending the previous session roughly flat, treasuries showed a notable move to the upside during trading on Thursday.

Bond prices moved higher early in the session before moving roughly sideways thereafter. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 3.2 basis points to 2.560 percent.

The strength among treasuries came after a Commerce Department report showed a jump in retail sales in March but analysts continued to forecast a slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter.

The Commerce Department said retail sales soared by 1.6 percent in March after edging down by 0.2 percent in February. Economists had expected retail sales to climb by 0.9 percent.

Excluding a jump in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales still surged up by 1.2 percent in March following a revised 0.2 percent dip in February.

Ex-auto sales had been expected to increase by 0.7 percent compared to the 0.4 percent drop originally reported for the previous month.

The report said closely watched core retail sales, which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials and food services, also jumped by 1.0 percent in March after falling by 0.3 percent in February.

"Overall, the retail sales figures add to the slightly more positive tone of the recent data and provide some comfort that the economy isn't falling off a cliff," said Andrew Hunter, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics.

He added, "But they don't change our view that the fading of the fiscal boost and the lagged impact of the Fed's monetary tightening will push GDP growth below its 2% potential pace over the coming quarters."

A separate report from the Labor Department showed initial jobless claims unexpectedly edged lower in the week ended April 13th, falling to a nearly 50-year low.

The report said initial jobless claims dipped to 192,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level of 197,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 205,000.

With the unexpected decrease, initial jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since hitting 182,000 in September of 1969.

Following the long holiday weekend, next week's trading may be impacted by reaction to reports on new and existing home sales, durable goods orders and first quarter GDP.

Bond traders are also likely to keep an eye on the results of the Treasury Department's auctions of two-year, five-year, and seven-year notes.

The Treasury plans to sell $40 billion worth of two-year notes next Tuesday, $41 billion worth of five-year notes next Wednesday and $32 billion worth of seven-year notes next Thursday.


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Gold Futures End Marginally Down

Trading 18 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Gold futures ended slightly lower on Thursday, as the dollar gained in strength on fairly buoyant economic data.

The dollar index gained about 0.5%, rising to 97.48, riding on stronger than expected jump in U.S. retail sales in March.

Gold futures for June ended down $0.80, or about 0.06%, at $1,276.00 an ounce, the lowest settlement since late December 2018.

On Wednesday, gold futures for June ended down $0.60, at $1,276.60 an ounce. Gold futures shed about 1.5% in the holiday-shortened week, going down for a fourth straight week.

Silver futures for May ended up $0.016, at $14.955 an ounce, while Copper futures for May settled at $2.9200 per pound, down $0.0475 from previous close.

In economic news, the Conference Board's leading economic index climbed by a more than expected 0.4% in March, after inching up by a revised 0.1% in February. Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.3% compared to the 0.2% uptick originally reported for the previous month.

A report from the Labor Department showed initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly edged lower in the week ended April 13th. The data said jobless claims dropped by 5,000 to 192,000 in the month, the lowest level since hitting 182,000 in September of 1969.

Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 205,000 from the 196,000 originally reported in the previous week.

According to a report from the Commerce Department, retail sales in the U.S. spiked by much more than expected in the month of March, soaring by 1.6%, after edging down by 0.2% in February. Economists had expected retail sales to climb by 0.9%.

Meanwhile, a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed the pace of growth in regional manufacturing slowed by more than anticipated in the month of April following a significant rebound in the previous month.

The Philly Fed said its index for current manufacturing activity in the region dropped to 8.5 in April after jumping to 13.7 in March.

In Eurozone news, eurozone private sector expanded at the slowest pace for the second successive month in April as manufacturing contracted and service sector growth slowed, preliminary data from the IHS Markit survey showed.


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Treasury Announces Details Of Next Week's Long-Term Securities Auctions

Trading 18 avr 2019 Commentaire »

On Thursday, the Treasury Department announced the details of next week's auctions of two-year, five-year, and seven-year notes on Thursday.

The Treasury said it plans to sell $40 billion worth of two-year notes next Tuesday, $41 billion worth of five-year notes next Wednesday and $32 billion worth of seven-year notes next Thursday.

Last month, the Treasury also sold $40 billion worth of two-year notes, $41 billion worth of five-year notes and $32 billion worth of seven-year notes.

The two-year and five-year note auctions both attracted below average demand, while the seven-year note auction attracted average demand.


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April 18, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 18 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend managed to initiate two successive bullish waves towards 1.3200 (Jan. 25) then 1.3350 (Feb. 27) before the bearish pullback brought the GBPUSD pair towards the uptrend on March 8th.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27.

Instead, the depicted recent bearish channel was established.

Significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line came to meet the pair.

Bearish rejection was anticipated around the mentioned price levels (1.3140-1.3170). However, the GBPUSD bullish pullback failed to pursue towards the mentioned zone.

Instead, significant bearish rejection was demonstrated earlier around the price level of 1.3120.

Hence, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish towards 1.2920-1.2900 where the lower limit of the depicted channel is located.

Trade Recommendations:

Any bullish pullback towards 1.3120-1.3140 should be considered for another SELL entry. TP levels to be located around 1.3100, 1.3020 then 1.2950 - 1.2920.S/L to be located above 1.3170.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

April 18, 2019 : EUR/USD Short-term outlook has turned into bearish.

Trading 18 avr 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5cb8a46de022f.jpg

On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

Since then, the EURUSD pair has been moving within the depicted channel with slight bearish tendency.

On March 7th, recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the Highlighted-Zone) which failed to provide adequate bearish pressure.

On March 18, a significant bullish attempt was executed above 1.1380 (the upper limit of the Highlighted-channel) demonstrating a false/temporary bullish breakout.

On March 22, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.1280 then 1.1220.

Two weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

As expected, this enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where recent bearish rejection was being demonstrated.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) followed by further bearish decline towards 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci).

For Intraday traders, the current price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stands as a prominent demand area to be watched for a possible short-termBUY entry.

However, conservative traders should be waiting for a bullish pullback towards 1.1280-1.1290 (backside of the broken bullish channel) for a valid SELL entry.

Moreover, a bearish breakdown below 1.1235 is mandatory to allow further bearish decline towards 1.1180-1.1170.

Trade recommendations :

A valid SELL entry can be taken around the price zone of 1.1280 - 1.1290 when a bullish pullback occurs.

TP levels to be located around 1.1250, 1.1235 and 1.1170. SL should be placed above 1.1320.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Leading Economic Index Climbs More Than Expected In March

Trading 18 avr 2019 Commentaire »

A report released by the Conference Board on Thursday showed its reading on U.S. leading economic indicators rose by slightly more than anticipated in the month of March.

The Conference Board said its leading economic index climbed by 0.4 percent in March after inching up by a revised 0.1 percent in February.

Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.2 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month.

"The US LEI picked up in March with labor markets, consumers' outlook, and financial conditions making the largest contributions," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at the Conference Board.

He added, "Despite the relatively large gain in March, the trend in the US LEI continues to moderate, suggesting that growth in the US economy is likely to decelerate toward its long term potential of about 2 percent by year end."

The slightly bigger than expected increase by the leading economic index reflected positive contributions from eight of the ten indicators that make up the index.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, average consumer expectations for business conditions, the Leading Credit Index, stock prices, the ISM New Orders Index, and the interest rate spread were among the biggest positive contributors.

Meanwhile, the report said average weekly manufacturing hours and building permits held steady during the month.

The Conference Board also said the coincident economic index crept up by 0.1 percent in March, matching the uptick in February.

The modest increase by the index reflected positive contributions from employees on non-farm payrolls, personal income less transfer payments and manufacturing and trade sales, while industrial production made a negative contribution.

The lagging economic index also inched up by 0.1 percent in March after showing no change in February, with four of its seven components advancing.

Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, the ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income, the change in consumer prices for services, and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales made positive contributions.

Negative contributions from the average duration of unemployment and the change in the index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing limited the upside.


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U.S. Business Inventories Rise Slightly Less Than Expected In February

Trading 18 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Business inventories in the U.S. increased by slightly less than anticipated in the month of February, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday.

The Commerce Department said business inventories rose by 0.3 percent in February after jumping by an upwardly revised 0.9 percent in January.

Economists had expected inventories to climb by 0.4 percent compared to the 0.8 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.

Manufacturing and retail inventories both rose by 0.3 percent during the month, while wholesale inventories edged up by 0.2 percent in February after surging up by 1.2 percent in January.

The report also showed an uptick in business sales, which inched up by 0.1 percent in February after rising by 0.3 percent in January.

Manufacturing and wholesale sales climbed by 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively, while retail sales fell by 0.3 percent.

With inventories and sales both increasing, the total business inventories/sales ratio for March was unchanged from the previous month at 1.39.


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Strong Retail Sales, Falling Jobless Claims Buoys U.S. Dollar

Trading 18 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar strengthened against its major counterparts in the European session on Thursday, as the nation's retail sales grew more than expected in March, while jobless claims touched near a 50-year low in the week ended April 13, signaling a pickup in economic growth in the first quarter.

Data from the Commerce Department showed that U.S. retail sales spiked much more than expected in March.

The Commerce Department said retail sales soared by 1.6 percent in March after edging down by 0.2 percent in February. Economists had expected retail sales to climb by 0.9 percent.

Excluding a jump in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales still surged up by 1.2 percent in March following a revised 0.2 percent dip in February.

Ex-auto sales had been expected to increase by 0.7 percent compared to the 0.4 percent drop originally reported for the previous month.

Data from the the Labor Department showed that first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly edged lower in the week ended April 13, with jobless claims falling to a nearly 50-year low.

The report said initial jobless claims dipped to 192,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level of 197,000.

Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 205,000 from the 196,000 originally reported in the previous week.

Investors await U.S business inventories for February and leading economic indicators for March, due at 10 am ET. Economists expect inventories to climb by 0.4 percent and leading index to rise by 0.3 percent.

The greenback traded mixed against its major counterparts in the Asian session. While it fell against the pound and the yen, it held steady against the franc and the euro.

The greenback appreciated to near a 2-week high of 1.2993 against the pound, after falling to 1.3053 at 1:45 am ET. The greenback is likely to find resistance around the 1.28 level, if it rises further.

Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that UK retail sales grew at a faster rate than expected in March.

Retail sales grew 1.1 percent month-on-month in March, after a 0.6 percent rise in February. Economists had forecast a 0.4 percent decline.

The greenback spiked up to 1.0138 against the franc, a level unseen since March 2017. The greenback is seen finding resistance around the 1.04 level.

Data from the Federal Customs Administration showed that Switzerland's exports slowed in March after rising in the previous month, while imports decreased further.

Exports edged up a real 0.1 percent month-on-month in March, after a 1.5 percent rise in February.

The greenback rebounded to 112.03 against the yen, from a 6-day low of 111.77 hit at 4:00 am ET. On the upside, 113.00 is possibly seen as the next resistance level for the greenback.

The greenback strengthened to an 8-day high of 1.1236 against the euro from yesterday's closing value of 1.1293. Further uptrend is likely to take the greenback to a resistance around the 1.10 area.

Flash data from the IHS Markit showed that Eurozone private sector expanded at the slowest pace for the second successive month in April as manufacturing contracted and service sector growth slowed.

The Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index fell to a three-month low of 51.3 from 51.6 in March.

The greenback climbed to 2-day highs of 1.3400 against the loonie and 0.7149 against the aussie, from its early lows of 1.3333 and 0.7198, respectively. The greenback is poised to find resistance around 1.35 against the loonie and 0.70 against the aussie.

Reversing from a low of 0.6730 hit at 6:15 pm ET, the greenback edged up to 0.6679 against the kiwi. Next likely resistance for the greenback is seen around the 0.65 level.

The U.S business inventories for February and leading economic indicators for March are due at 10 am ET.


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