Dollar Stays Mostly Weak Against Major Rivals

Trading 17 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The dollar exhibited slight weakness against most of its key rivals on Wednesday, as global growth worries eased a bit after data showed China's GDP saw a steady growth in the first quarter of 2019.

The dollar index dropped to a low of 96.82 before recovering to around 97.00, still trailing previous close.

Against the Japanese Yen, the dollar showed strength. A dollar fetched 112.17 yen at the day's high, recovering from a low 111.92 yen. It was last seen hovering around 112.10, up marginally.

The dollar was lower by about 0.12% against the euro, trading at 1.1297, up from previous close of $1.1282 and the day's low of 1.1325.

The British Pound Sterling fetched $1.3039, slightly down from previous close.

Among other currencies, the loonie was up slightly at $1.3343 and the Swiss franc was weak against the greenback, with the USD/CHF pair trading at 1.0108.

Against the Swedish currency, the dollar pared some earlier gains. The Krona was quoting at 9.2447 a dollar, down 0.14% from previous close of 9.2546.

Against the Aussie, the dollar was down marginally, with strong Chinese GDP data supporting the Australian currency.

In economic news from China, GDP grew an annual 6.4% in the first quarter of 2019, unchanged from the fourth quarter and beating forecasts for 6.3%.

Retail sales climbed 8.7% year-on-year in March - beating expectations for an increase of 8.4% and up from 8.2%.

Fixed asset investment rose 6.3% in the first quarter, in line with expectations and up from 6.1% in the previous quarter.

The Beige Book, released by the Federal Reserve today said U.S. economic activity expanded at a slight-to-moderate pace in March and early April.

While most districts reported that growth continued at a similar pace as the previous report, the Fed said a few districts reported some strengthening.

In economic news from the U.S., a report released by the Commerce Department showed an unexpected drop in U.S. trade deficit in the month of February amid a jump in the value of exports.

The Commerce Department said the trade deficit narrowed to $49.4 billion in February from $51.1 billion in January, while economists had expected the deficit to widen to $53.5 billion.

The Beige Book showed reports from the Fed districts indicated generally positive conditions in various sectors but noted some caveats.

Reports on manufacturing activity were favorable, even as contacts in many districts noted trade-related uncertainty.

Similarly, reports of stronger home sales in most districts were tempered by indications of low demand for higher-priced homes.

On employment, the Fed said there was increase nationwide. "While contacts reported gains across a variety of industries, employment increases were most highly concentrated in high-skilled jobs," the central bank said. "However, labor markets remained tight, restraining the rate of growth."

Looking ahead, the Fed said there was little change in the economic outlook.


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Crude Oil Futures Settle Modestly Lower

Trading 17 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures ended lower on Wednesday, but the decline was just marginal as data from Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a drop in U.S. crude stockpiles.

OPEC-led production cuts, the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and disruptions in crude production in Libya due to the ongoing unrest in the country, helped limit oil's decline.

Fairly strong first quarter GDP data from China too supported oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for May ended down $0.29, or 0.45%, at $63.76 a barrel.

On Tuesday, crude oil futures for May ended up $0.65, or about 1%, at $64.05 a barrel.

According to the weekly data released by the Energy Information Administration this morning, crude stockpiles in the U.S. dropped by 1.4 million barrels in the week ended April 12, slightly more than the expected fall.

The EIA data also showed a 1.17 million barrels drop in gasoline inventories last week. The fall, however, was much less than an expected decline of about 2.13 million barrels.

Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles declined by a marginal 0.36 million barrels last weak.

A report released by the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday showed that U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels in the week ended April 12, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 1.7 million barrels.

In economic news from China, GDP grew an annual 6.4% in the first quarter of 2019, unchanged from the fourth quarter and beating forecasts for 6.3%.

Retail sales climbed 8.7% year-on-year in March - beating expectations for an increase of 8.4% and up from 8.2%.

Fixed asset investment rose 6.3% in the first quarter, in line with expectations and up from 6.1% in the previous quarter.


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Treasuries Finish Choppy Trading Day Roughly Flat

Trading 17 avr 2019 Commentaire »

After trending lower over the past few sessions, treasuries showed a lack of direction throughout the trading day on Wednesday.

Bond prices spent the day bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line before closing roughly flat. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, ended the day unchanged at 2.592 percent.

Choppy trading on Wall Street carried over to the bond markets as traders digested a mixed batch of earnings news from big-name companies such as PepsiCo (PEP), Morgan Stanley (MS), Netflix (NFLX) and IBM Corp. (IBM).

PepsiCo and Morgan Stanley posted notable gains after reporting quarterly results that exceeded analyst estimates on both the top and bottom lines.

On the other hand, Netflix and IBM moved to the downside after both reported better than expected earnings but on weaker than expected revenues and provided disappointing guidance.

The lackluster performance continued as the Federal Reserve's Beige Book said U.S. economic activity expanded at a slight-to-moderate pace in March and early April.

A compilation of anecdotal evidence on economic conditions in the twelve Fed districts, the Beige Book said most districts reported that growth continued at a similar pace as the previous report, while a few districts reported some strengthening.

The Beige Book showed reports from the Fed districts indicated generally positive economic conditions in various sectors but noted some caveats.

For instance, the report said reports on manufacturing activity were favorable, although contacts in many districts noted trade-related uncertainty.

Reports of stronger home sales in most districts were similarly tempered by indications of low demand for higher-priced homes.

Looking ahead, the Fed said there was little change in the economic outlook, with contacts in reporting districts expecting slight-to-modest growth in the months ahead.

The release of the Beige Book comes as the Fed is scheduled to hold its next two-day monetary policy meeting on April 30th and May 1st.

CME Group's FedWatch tool currently indicates a 99.5 percent chance the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.

Reaction to the latest earnings news may continue to impact trading on Thursday, although traders are also likely to keep an eye on reports on retail sales, weekly jobless claims, and leading economic indicators.


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Gold Futures Settle Slightly Lower

Trading 17 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday, as traders continued to look for riskier assets after data showed a notable increase in Chinese GDP in the March quarter.

Fairly encouraging corporate earnings reports and continued optimism about U.S.-China trade deal also weighed on the yellow metal.

However, after the sharp fall on Tuesday, gold's decline was just marginal today.

The U.S. dollar was subdued as well, due to stronger than expected Chinese GDP data. The greenback was down slightly against its major rivals.

The dollar index dropped to a low of 96.82 before recovering to edge past the 97.00 mark.

Gold futures for June ended down $0.60, at $1,276.60 an ounce.

On Tuesday, gold futures for June declined $14.10, or 1.1%, to $1,277.20 an ounce.

Silver futures for May ended up $0.024, at $14.939 an ounce, while Copper futures for May settled at $2.9675 per pound, gaining $0.0370 for the session.

In news from China, GDP grew an annual 6.4% in the first quarter of 2019, unchanged from the fourth quarter and beating forecasts for 6.3%.

Retail sales climbed 8.7% year-on-year in March - beating expectations for an increase of 8.4% and up from 8.2%.

Fixed asset investment rose 6.3% in the first quarter, in line with expectations and up from 6.1% in the previous quarter.

In economic new from the U.S., a report released by the Commerce Department showed the U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in the month of February amid a jump in the value of exports.

The Commerce Department said the trade deficit narrowed to $49.4 billion in February from $51.1 billion in January, while economists had expected the deficit to widen to $53.5 billion.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fed's Beige Book Paints Positive Picture But With Notable Caveats

Trading 17 avr 2019 Commentaire »

A report released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday said U.S. economic activity expanded at a slight-to-moderate pace in March and early April.

The report, known as the Beige Book, is a compilation of anecdotal evidence on economic conditions in the twelve Fed districts.

While most districts reported that growth continued at a similar pace as the previous report, the Fed said a few districts reported some strengthening.

The Beige Book showed reports from the Fed districts indicated generally positive conditions in various sectors but noted some caveats.

For instance, the report said reports on manufacturing activity were favorable, although contacts in many districts noted trade-related uncertainty.

Reports of stronger home sales in most districts were similarly tempered by indications of low demand for higher-priced homes.

The Fed also said employment continued to increase nationwide, with nine districts reporting modest or moderate growth and the other three reporting slight growth.

"While contacts reported gains across a variety of industries, employment increases were most highly concentrated in high-skilled jobs," the central bank said. "However, labor markets remained tight, restraining the rate of growth."

The Beige Book said prices have risen modestly since the previous report, with tariffs, freight costs, and rising wages often cited as key factors driving a modest-to-moderate increase in input costs.

Looking ahead, the Fed said there was little change in the economic outlook, with contacts in reporting districts expecting slight-to-modest growth in the months ahead.

The release of the Beige Book comes as the Fed is scheduled to hold its next two-day monetary policy meeting on April 30th and May 1st.

CME Group's Fed Watch tool currently indicates a 99.5 percent chance the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

April 17, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 17 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend managed to initiate two successive bullish waves towards 1.3200 (Jan. 25) then 1.3350 (Feb. 27) before the bearish pullback brought the GBPUSD pair towards the uptrend on March 8th.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27.

Instead, the depicted recent bearish channel was established.

Significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line came to meet the pair.

Currently, the price zone of 1.3140-1.3170 corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel where another bearish movement may be initiated.

Bearish rejection is still anticipated around the mentioned price levels (1.3140-1.3170).

Short-term outlook has turned into bearish towards 1.2920-1.2900 where the lower limit of the depicted channel is located.

Trade Recommendations:

Any bullish pullback towards 1.3150-1.3170 should be considered for another SELL entry. TP levels to be located around 1.3100, 1.3020 then 1.2950 - 1.2920.

S/L to be located above 1.3190.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

April 17, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 17 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

Since then, the EURUSD pair has been moving within the depicted channel with slight bearish tendency.

On March 7th, recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the Highlighted-Zone) which failed to provide adequate bearish pressure.

On March 18, a significant bullish attempt was executed above 1.1380 (the upper limit of the Highlighted-channel) demonstrating a false/temporary bullish breakout.

On March 22, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.1280 then 1.1220.

Two weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

As expected, this enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where recent bearish rejection was being demonstrated.

Short-term outlook turns to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) where price action should be watched cautiously.

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1280 stands as a prominent demand area to be watched for a possible BUY entry if enough bullish rejection is expressed.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown below 1.1280 opens the way for further bearish decline towards 1.1250-1.1235.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Edge Up Less Than Expected In February

Trading 17 avr 2019 Commentaire »

After reporting sharp increases in U.S. wholesale inventories in the two previous months, the Commerce Department released a report on Wednesday showing inventories rose by less than expected in the month of February.

The Commerce Department said wholesale inventories edged up by 0.2 percent in February after surging up by 1.2 percent in January. Economists had expected inventories to climb by 0.5 percent.

Inventories of durable goods inched up by 0.1 percent, as notable increases in inventories of furniture and machinery were offset by steep drops in inventories of computer equipment, lumber, and metals.

The report said inventories of non-durable goods rose by 0.3 percent, reflecting spikes in inventories of drugs and apparel as well as slumps in inventories of farm products, chemicals and petroleum.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said wholesale sales increased by 0.3 percent in February after climbing by 0.5 percent in January.

Sales of non-durable goods rose by 0.4 percent amid jumps in sales of farm products, chemicals, and petroleum, while sales of durable goods crept up by 0.1 percent despite a steep drop in lumber sales.

With inventories and sales both rising, the inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was unchanged from the previous month at 1.35.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Drop By 1.4 Million Barrels In Week Ended 4/12

Trading 17 avr 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Drop By 1.4 Million Barrels In Week Ended 4/12


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EUR and GBP: Euro and pound decline after weak inflation reports coinciding with economists’ forecasts

Trading 17 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The positive balance of current account of payment balance of the eurozone has declined, but the positive balance of foreign trade in the eurozone increased. Such data were presented today in the morning. The report on inflation in the eurozone traders ignored, as it coincided with the forecasts of economists.

As indicated in the report of the European Central Bank, the surplus of the current account of the balance of payments in the eurozone in February of this year fell to 27 billion euros against 37 billion euros in January. In February 2018, the eurozone's current account surplus was 32 billion euros. The decline is directly related to the slowdown in world trade.

On the contrary, the eurozone's foreign trade surplus increased in February. However, is is too early to rejoice. Growth was achieved by reducing imports rather than increasing exports.

According to the statistical agency Eurostat, foreign trade surplus in February 2019 increased to 19.5 billion euros from 17.4 billion euros in January. As noted above, imports of the eurozone declined by 2.7%, while exports only by 1.4%. Eurozone sales to other countries in February exceeded purchases by 17.9 billion euros, while in February the corresponding figure was 16.5 billion euros.

Also today, a report on the consumer price index came out, which fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. According to Eurostat, the eurozone's annual consumer price inflation in March fell to 1.4% against the February value of 1.5%. The target level of the European Central Bank is slightly below 2.0%. In March compared with February of this year, prices rose by 1.0% and also coincided with forecasts.

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As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, growth was limited by the resistance around 1.1320, which now creates the main problems for buyers of risky assets. The bears will strive to return the trading instrument to the area of the lower border of the side channel 1.1280, from where you can again expect to resume demand.

The British pound ignored the data presented on Wednesday from the National Bureau of Inflation Statistics. According to the report, the UK's annual CPI in March rose by 1.9%, as in February, indicating signs of stability. In March, compared with February, inflation rose by 0.2%.

Today, a report was also submitted from the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom on housing prices, which rose by only 0.6% in February compared to the same period of the previous year. In January, growth was recorded immediately by 1.7%. Most of all, housing prices fell in London, where the decline was about 3.8% compared to the same period last year. It is worth noting that the decline in prices in London has been observed for 12 months in a row.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com