Dollar Mostly Steady Against Major Rivals

Trading 16 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar was fairly steady against most major currencies on Tuesday, with traders reacting to a mixed batch of economic data from the U.S. and Europe and reports that several ECB members felt economic projections for Eurozone growth were too optimistic.

The dollar index rose to 97.09 gaining nearly 0.15%.

Against the euro, the dollar strengthened to 1.1281, gaining about 0.2%, recovering from a low of 1.1316, while against Pound Sterling, it rose to 1.3043, from a low of 1.3112.

According to a report from Reuters, several ECB members feel the central bank's economic projections for the eurozone are way too optimistic.

Meanwhile, on the Brexit front, reports indicate British Prime Minister Theresa May is under pressure to rapidly come out with an alternative Brexit plan ahead of parliamentary elections in Europe, scheduled for May 22.

According to a report in Guardian, talks between May and the opposition Labour Party leader regarding Brexit had stalled. The Labour Party, however, has denied the report.

The Chinese yuan was quoting at 6.7122 a dollar, down 0.05% from previous close.

In economic news from China, housing prices in 70 major Chinese cities increased an average 10.6% year-on-year in March. Data on Chinese GDP is due tomorrow.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar fetched 112.02 yen, recovering from 111.85.

In U.S. economic news, the Federal Reserve's report showed U.S. industrial production unexpectedly edged lower in the month of March.

The report said industrial production dipped by 0.1% in March after inching up by 0.1% in February. Economists had expected production to rise by 0.2%.

The unexpected decrease in production came as mining output slid by 0.8% in March after coming in unchanged in the previous month.

The Fed said manufacturing production was unchanged in March after declining in both January and February, while utilities output crept up by 0.2% after spiking by 3.7%.

Meanwhile, U.S. homebuilder confidence improved in the month of April, according to a report released by the National Association of Home Builders.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index inched up to 63 in April after holding at 62 in March, with the uptick matching expectations.

The greenback was down slightly against the Aussie and Loonie, but advanced against Swiss franc.


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Treasuries Move To The Downside Amid Upbeat Earnings News

Trading 16 avr 2019 Commentaire »

After ending the previous session roughly flat, treasuries showed a notable move to the downside over the course of the trading day on Tuesday.

Bond prices drifted lower as the day progressed before closing firmly in negative territory. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed by 3.9 basis points to a nearly one-month high of 2.592 percent.

The weakness among treasuries came as the first batch of corporate earnings news has been largely upbeat, easing concerns about a potential first quarter contraction.

Before the start of trading on Wall Street, Dow components UnitedHealth (UNH) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) both reported better than expected quarterly results and raised their full-year guidance.

The positive corporate news overshadowed a Federal Reserve report showing industrial production unexpectedly edged lower in the month of March.

The report said industrial production dipped by 0.1 percent in March after inching up by 0.1 percent in February. Economists had expected production to rise by 0.2 percent.

Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, noted the dip in industrial production in March completed a "weak first quarter in which industrial production contracted by 0.3% annualized, as the U.S. factory sector succumbed to the global manufacturing malaise."

Meanwhile, a separate report from the National Association of Home Builders showed a modest improvement in U.S. homebuilder confidence in the month of April.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index inched up to 63 in April after holding at 62 in March, with the uptick matching expectations.

"Builders report solid demand for new single-family homes but they are also grappling with affordability concerns stemming from a chronic shortage of construction workers and buildable lots," said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde.

Earnings news may continue to impact trading on Wednesday along with a report on the U.S. trade deficit and the Fed's Beige Book, a compilation of anecdotal evidence on economic conditions in the twelve Fed districts.


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Oil Futures End Notably Higher Ahead Of Inventory Data

Trading 16 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices moved higher on Tuesday amid prospects of tight supply conditions in the market due to the ongoing tensions in Libya and declining exports from Iran and Venezuela.

Easing worries about growth and energy demand after China reported a faster pace of increase in Chinese home prices supported crude oil.

Traders were also looking ahead to the inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute, due later in the day, and the Energy Information Administration, due tomorrow morning.

Russia's reported plan to increase crude output put a cap on crude's rise.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for May ended up $0.65, or about 1%, at $64.05 a barrel.

On Monday, crude oil futures for May ended down $0.49, or 0.8%, at $63.40 a barrel.

The ongoing unrest in Libya, where Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army and the government are engaged in fighting, is likely to significantly affect crude supplies from the country.

Already, the U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela resulted in a notable drop in oil shipments from the two countries. According to data, crude exports from Iran have dropped in April to their lowest daily levels so far this year.


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Gold Futures Settle Notably Lower

Trading 16 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices drifted lower on Tuesday, dragging gold futures to their lowest close so far this year, amid growing appetite for riskier assets thanks to decent earnings reports and easing worries about trade.

Encouraging economic data out of China and Europe and the dollar's uptick - the dollar index rose to 97.09, gaining about 0.16%, contributed as well to the yellow metal's decline.

Gold was also probably weighed down by a Bloomberg report that said Venezuela sold $400 million in gold recently to counter the impact of U.S. sanctions on the country.

The Federal Reserve, as well central banks of major countries, have been going soft on rates and this has encouraged investors to go in for riskier assets such as equities.

Gold futures for June ended down $14.10, or 1.1%, at $1,277.20 an ounce.

On Monday, gold futures ended down $3.90, or 0.3%, at $1,291.30 an ounce.

Silver futures for May ended down $0.060, at $14.915 an ounce, while Copper futures for May ended at $2.9305 per pound, down $0.0045 from previous close.

In European economic news today, a survey report from the ZEW-Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research showed German investor confidence rose sharply in April and topped economists' expectations.

The ZEW investor confidence index climbed to 3.1 from -3.6 in March. Economists had forecast a score of 0.8.

The investor confidence index for Eurozone surged to 4.5 from -2.5 in March, the ZEW survey said.

Preliminary data from the Office for National Statistics showed UK employment growth rose more than expected in the three months to February, surging to a record high.

The level of employment in the UK grew by 179,000 persons to a record high of 32.72 million in the three months to February. Economists had forecast a 173,000 increase.

The ILO unemployment rate was 3.9% same as in January, and in line with economists' expectations.

In the U.S., a report from the Federal Reserve showed industrial production unexpectedly edged lower in the month of March, dipping by 0.1%, after inching up by 0.1% in February.

Meanwhile, a separate report from the National Association of Home Builders showed a modest improvement in U.S. homebuilder confidence in the month of April.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index inched up to 63 in April after holding at 62 in March, with the uptick matching expectations.

On the trade front, a deal between the U.S. and China seems to be in the making at the negotiating tables after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the two sides were close to the final round of negotiations.


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April 16, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 16 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend managed to initiate two successive bullish waves towards 1.3200 (Jan. 25) then 1.3350 (Feb. 27) before the bearish pullback brought the GBPUSD pair towards the uptrend on March 8th.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27.

Instead, the depicted bearish channel was established.

Significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line came to meet the pair.

Currently, the price zone of 1.3140-1.3170 corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel where another bearish movement may be initiated.

Short-term outlook has turned into bearish towards 1.2920-1.2900 where the lower limit of the depicted channel is located.

Trade Recommendations:

Any bullish pullback towards 1.3150-1.3170 should be considered for another SELL entry. TP levels to be located around 1.3100, 1.3020 then 1.2950 - 1.2920.

S/L to be located above 1.3190.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

April 16, 2019 : EUR/USD demonstrating significant bearish rejection around 1.1320.

Trading 16 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

Since then, the EURUSD pair has been moving within the depicted channel with slight bearish tendency.

On March 7th, recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the Highlighted-Zone) which failed to provide adequate bearish pressure.

On March 18, a significant bullish attempt was executed above 1.1380 (the upper limit of the Highlighted-channel) demonstrating a false/temporary bullish breakout.

On March 22, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.1280 then 1.1220.

Two weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

As expected, this enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where recent bearish rejection was being demonstrated.

Short-term outlook turns to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) where price action should be watched cautiously.

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1280 stands as a prominent demand area to be watched for a possible Bullish pullback if enough bullish rejection is expressed.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown below 1.1280 opens the way for further bearish decline towards 1.1250-1.1210.

Trade recommendations :

A valid SELL entry was suggested around 1.1300-1.1320. It's already running in profits.

TP levels to be located around 1.1280 and 1.1250 and 1.1210. SL should be lowered to 1.1310 (entry level) to offset the risk.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 16, 2019

Trading 16 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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After a nice run higher from 144.90 GBP/JPY is consolidating. We expect support near 145.95 will be able to protect the downside for renewed upside pressure, through minor resistance at 145.63 and more importantly a break above resistance at 147.00 that will call for a continuation towards 148.50 on the way towards 151.50.

R3: 147.00

R2: 146,63

R1: 146.30

Pivot: 145.95

S1: 145.63

S2: 145.30

S3: 144.90

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 146.25 with our stop placed at 144.80.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 16, 2019

Trading 16 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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After a nice run up from 124.76 EUR/JPY is consolidating in a narrow range between 126.15 - 126.80. Once this consolidation is complete, we will be looking for a break above minor resistance at 126.80 for a continuation higher towards 128.50 and 129.50 as the next upside targets.

Ideally support at 126.15 will be able to protect the downside, but if broken a dip to 125.65 should be expected before up again.

R3: 127.50

R2: 127.00

R1: 126.80

Pivot: 126.15

S1: 126.00

S2: 126.65

S3: 125.45

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 125.65 with our stop placed at 125.25

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Shows Modest Improvement In April

Trading 16 avr 2019 Commentaire »

A report released by the National Association of Home Builders on Tuesday showed a modest improvement in U.S. homebuilder confidence in the month of April.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index inched up to 63 in April after holding at 62 in March, with the uptick matching expectations.

"Builders report solid demand for new single-family homes but they are also grappling with affordability concerns stemming from a chronic shortage of construction workers and buildable lots," said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde.

The modest increase by the housing market index came as the component measuring traffic of prospective buyers jumped to 47 in April from 44 in March.

The component gauging current sales conditions also crept up to 69 in April from 68 in March, although the measure charting sales expectations in the next six months edged down to 71 from 72.

"Ongoing job growth, favorable demographics and a low-interest rate environment will help to modestly spark sales growth in the near term," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

He added, "However, supply-side headwinds that are putting upward pressure on housing costs will limit more robust growth in the housing market."

On Friday, the Commerce Department is scheduled to release a separate report on new residential construction in the month of March.

Housing starts are expected to jump to an annual rate of 1.230 million in March, while building permits are expected to rise to a rate of 1.299 million.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

German Investor Confidence At 13-month High

Trading 16 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Germany's investor confidence rose sharply in April and topped economists' expectations, raising hopes of a rebound in the biggest euro area economy, but a sharp deterioration in the current assessment suggest that the outlook is set to remain greatly subdued in the near term.

The ZEW investor confidence index climbed to 3.1 from -3.6 in March, survey data from the ZEW-Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research showed on Tuesday. Economists had forecast a score of 0.8.

The index reading improved for a sixth consecutive month to enter positive territory for the first time since March 2018, and was the strongest since that month, when the score was 5.1.

Though the indicator still remains below the long-term average of 22.2 points, economic expectations have recovered significantly from its low point in October 2018, having climbed almost 28 points since, ZEW said.

The current situation index of the survey, however, tumbled to 5.5 in April from 11.1 in March. Economists were looking for a score of 8.5. The score was the weakest since November 2014, when it was 3.3.

"The slight improvement recorded by the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is largely based on the hope that the global economic environment will develop less poorly than previously assumed," ZEW President Achim Wambach said.

"The postponement of the Brexit deadline may also have contributed to buoy the economic outlook. By contrast, the latest figures regarding incoming orders and industrial production in the German industry point to a rather weak economic development."

The investor confidence index for Eurozone surged to 4.5 in April from -2.5 in March, the ZEW survey said. However, the current assessment index shed 6.6 points to -13.2.


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