Dollar Stays Subdued

Trading 15 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar stayed largely subdued against major currencies on Monday amid speculation the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain its current stance with regard to interest rates right through 2019.

The U.S. President Donald Trump's comments on Sunday that economic expansion would been stronger if not for the Fed, weighed on greenback.

Trump tweeted :"Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite!"

The dollar index, at 90.93, was little changed from the unchanged line about an hour ago, after having dropped to a low of 96.79 earlier in the day.

Against the Euro, the dollar was down at 1.1306. The greenback was weak against British Pound Sterling, with a unit of the U.K currency fetching $1.3094, up from $1.3074 earlier.

The Yen was little changed against the dollar at 112.03 and loonie was lower by about 0.3%.

The dollar gained against Swiss franc but was flat against the Aussie.

In U.S. economic news, consumer sentiment has deteriorated by more than anticipated in the month of April, after seeing a notable improvement in March, according to a report from the University of Michigan.

The preliminary report showed the consumer sentiment index dropped to 96.9 in April from the final March reading of 98.4. Economists had expected the index to edge down to 98.0.

The bigger than expected decrease by the headline index reflected less optimism about the economic outlook, as the index of consumer expectations slid to 85.8 in April from 88.8 in March.

On the other hand, the report said the current economic conditions index inched up to 114.2 in April from 113.3 in the previous month.

Surveys of Consumers chief economist Richard Curtin described the decrease by the consumer sentiment as "insignificant," saying, Consumer confidence continued its sideways shuffle in early April."

"Overall, the level of the Sentiment Index during the past 30 months was higher than any other time since 1997 to 2000, the final phase of the record 10-year expansion," Curtin said.

Meanwhile, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed New York manufacturing activity picked up pace in April. However, it still remained fairly subdued, the report said.

The New York Fed said its headline general business conditions index climbed to 10.1 in April after falling to 3.7 in March, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. Economists had expected the index to rise to 6.0.


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Oil Settles Lower On Likely Hike In Russian Outputs

Trading 15 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures edged lower on Monday on reports Russia and OPEC might increase production to boost their market share.

However, prospects of a drop in supply due to lower production in Iran and Venezuela amid reports that the U.S. might further toughen its stance against the two nations and possibilities of further disruption in crude production in Libya due to the ongoing unrest there supported oil at lower levels.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for May ended down $0.49, or 0.8%, at $63.40 a barrel.

On Friday, crude oil futures for May ended up $0.31, or 0.5%, at $63.89 a barrel, after rising to a high of $64.65 a barrel intraday.

The monthly report from the Energy Information Administration said crude oil production from seven major U.S. shale plays is forecast to climb by 80,000 barrels a day in May to 8.46 million barrels a day, from 8.38 million in April.

In the week ended April 5, U.S. crude production stayed in record territory, at 12.2 million barrels a day.

The Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov reportedly said over the weekend that Russia and OPEC may decide to boost production to fight for market share with the United States.

"There is a dilemma. What should we do with OPEC: should we lose the market, which is being occupied by the Americans, or quit the deal?" Anton Siluanov is quoted as saying to TASS News Agency.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is reportedly keen to keep cutting, but sources within OPEC said it could raise output from July if disruptions continue elsewhere.

OPEC and its allies are scheduled to meet in June to decide whether to continue with output cuts.


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Treasuries Finish Lackluster Session Roughly Flat

Trading 15 avr 2019 Commentaire »

After moving notably lower over the two previous sessions, treasuries showed a lack of direction during trading on Monday.

Bond prices spent much of the day lingering near the unchanged line before closing roughly flat. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, edged down by less than a basis point to 2.553 percent.

The choppy trading on the day came as traders looked ahead to the release of some key economic data in the coming days, including reports on industrial production, retail sales, and housing stocks.

Bond traders are also likely to keep an eye on Wall Street's reaction to a slew of quarterly results from several big-name companies.

Overall trading activity may remain somewhat subdued, however, as the holiday on Friday may keep some traders away from their desks.

Traders largely shrugged off a report from the New York Federal Reserve showing growth in regional manufacturing activity picked up somewhat in April but remained fairly subdued.

The New York Fed said its headline general business conditions index climbed to 10.1 in April after falling to 3.7 in March, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity.

Trading on Tuesday may be impacted by reaction to a pair of U.S. economic reports on industrial production and homebuilder confidence.


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Gold Futures Settle Lower Again

Trading 15 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Gold futures dropped to a one-week low on Monday, with riskier assets faring well amid rising optimism about U.S.-China trade talks and a fairly good start to the U.S. earnings season.

Meanwhile, the dollar index was little changed at 96.95 amid narrow movements

Gold futures for June ended down $3.90, or 0.3%, at $1,291.30 an ounce.

On Friday, gold futures for June settled at $1,295.20 an ounce, losing $1.90, or 0.2%.

Silver futures for May ended up $0.012, at $14.975 an ounce, while Copper futures for May settled at $2.9350 per pound, down $0.0110 from previous close.

On Saturday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said a U.S.-China trade agreement would go "way beyond" previous efforts to open China's markets to U.S. companies.

Speaking to the media on the sidelines of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, Mnuchin said that he believed Washington and Beijing are getting close to the final round of concluding issues.

On the earnings front, major U.S. banks JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo reported strong first quarter earnings last week, although the latter lowered its forecast on a key lending benchmark tied closely to profitability.


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April 15, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 15 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

Since then, the EURUSD pair has been moving within the depicted channel with slight bearish tendency.

On March 7th, recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the Highlighted-Zone) which failed to provide adequate bearish pressure.

On March 18, a significant bullish attempt was executed above 1.1380 (the upper limit of the Highlighted-channel) demonstrating a false/temporary bullish breakout.

On March 22, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.1280 then 1.1220.

Two weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

As expected, this enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where recent bearish rejection was being demonstrated.

Short-term outlook turns to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) where price action should be watched cautiously.

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1280 stands as a prominent demand area to be watched for a possible BUY entry if enough bullish rejection is expressed.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown below 1.1280 opens the way for further bearish decline towards 1.1250-1.1235.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders can look for a valid SELL entry around 1.1300-1.1320.

TP levels to be located around 1.1280 and 1.1250 and 1.1210. SL should be placed above 1.1350.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

April 15, 2019 : GBP/USD facing a confluence of supply levels around 1.3150, will it hold ?

Trading 15 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend managed to initiate two successive bullish waves towards 1.3200 (Jan. 25) then 1.3350 (Feb. 27) before the bearish pullback brought the GBPUSD pair towards the uptrend on March 8th.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27.

Instead, the depicted bearish channel was established.

Significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection. This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line came to meet the pair.

Currently, the price zone of 1.3140-1.3170 currently corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel where another bearish movement may be initiated.

Bearish rejection is still anticipated around the mentioned price levels (1.3140-1.3170).

Bearish decline is expected towards 1.2920-1.2900 where the lower limit of the depicted channel is located.

Trade Recommendations:

Bullish pullback towards 1.3150-1.3170 should be considered for another SELL entry. TP levels to be located around 1.3100, 1.3020 then 1.2950 - 1.2920.

S/L to be located above 1.3190.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 15, 2019

Trading 15 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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We continue to look for a clear break above minor resistance at 147.00 for a continuation higher towards 148.50 on the way to 151.50.

Support is now seen at 146.25 which we expect will be able to protect the downside for a firm break above 147.00.

R3: 148.05

R2: 147.40

R1: 147.00

Pivot: 146.65

S1: 146.25

S2: 146.00

S3: 145.66

Trading recommendation:

We are long on GBP from 146.25 with our stop placed at 144.80.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 15, 2019

Trading 15 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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EUR/JPY has broken clearly above the minor resistance line at 125.91 and, what is more important, it breached the resistance line near 126.00. So, it indicates more upside movement to come. The next major target is seen near 129.50, but this resistance should only be able to cap the upside temporally as a further rise is still expected for this cross towards 135.50.

Support is now seen at 126.45 and again at 125.65.

R3: 127.50

R2: 127.00

R1: 126.75

Pivot: 126.45

S1: 126.00

S2: 125.65

S3: 125.40

Trading recommendation:

We are long on EUR from 125.65 and we will move our stop higher to 125.25.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly review of EUR / USD, GBP / USD pairs: Preparing for the holiday

Trading 15 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Frankly, the past week was just crazy, especially because of the incessant Brexit, which seems to be postponed just in operation. But much more interesting is that it is completely different since the pound remained in the same positions from which it began. However, the single European currency could be well strengthened.

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Hence, the European Union gave the UK a new respite as they gather for an extraordinary Brexit summit and after listening to all the outcry and lamentations of Theresa May on the obstinate Labor Party, who are forever blocking the adoption of the most remarkable divorce agreement in the history of mankind. Just so that the "Iron Lady - 2" was able to win over Jeremy Corbin with his "accomplices and here such a song began immediately, that you wonder. Absolutely all the means of mass agitation and disinformation began to shout that Britain was given a reprieve right up to October 31st. Along the way, they began to look for some kind of mystical signs and omens in it as they noticed that it was Halloween. But in fact, the United Kingdom was given a delay only until March 23 and prior to this date, the UK will sign the agreement. This resettlement will take place exactly on October 31 with all the necessary procedures and transitional periods. It is either the UK must take part in the elections to the European Parliament, which is at odds with the very idea of Brexit and will obviously not completely understood by both Her Majesty's subjects and Theresa May's political partners. . Virtually no one doubts that if the UK participates in elections to the European Parliament, the political crisis in the United Kingdom will only intensify. Just as in the case of the cancellation of Brexit or holding a second referendum. In other words, the conditions set by the European Union are not very different from those that they used to be, only the UK should now sign the agreement exactly for the European elections. Otherwise, either they go without an agreement, with all the consequences or get a political crisis that threatens to bury the entire political class in the United Kingdom. Thus to some extent, a certain uncertainty of the pound can be understood and of course, against the background of such epoch-making events that have good chances to go down in history, nobody paid attention to data on industrial production in the UK, which stopped falling by 0.3% and showed an increase of 0.1%.

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But much more interesting is all of what happened with the single European currency. It grew after all and if you blame it on the euphoria of the decision of the European Union about Brexit, then the question remains - what happened to the pound then? Moreover, it is still more fun if you look at the US statistics, especially on inflation and producer prices. After all, inflation accelerated from 1.5% to 1.9% and the growth rate of producer prices from 1.9% to 2.2%, whereas it was predicted that inflation would rise to only 1.8%. Instead, the growth rates of producer prices should have remained unchanged. Yet, the answer lies in the content of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Operations on the open market, which almost directly states that the refinancing rate will be raised next year. However, when the meeting was held, inflation showed a downward trend on the contrary, which was reflected in the form of fears of the leadership of the Federal Reserve System. Hence, we can safely assume that the rhetoric of Jerome Powell will soon change to the joy of investors, large and small. Apparently, no one wants to think and risk so far.

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However, the answer to the question about the bad behavior of the single European currency, which most likely lies in Europe itself and more precisely in the results of the board meeting of the European Central Bank. Naturally, Mario Draghi was extremely cautious in his statements and confirmed once again that before the start of the next year one should not wait for the refinancing rate to increase. Also, the head of the European Central Bank did not answer the question of how long the regulator intends to distribute long-term loans to banks, which are designed so that these same banks could calmly return to Mario Draghi the money they received during the years of the quantitative easing program. It is like theory and practice again diverge. It can be said with all certainty that this is an official statement saying that the European Central Bank has headed for a gradual normalization of monetary policy or then to tighten if it is absolutely needed.

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Of course, one cannot ignore the latest rumors about how negotiations between the United States and China are going on regarding a full-scale trade agreement. In many ways, this is precisely what explains the growth of the single European currency while the standing of the pound is explained by a complete lack of understanding of what will happen to Brexit in the end. The thing is that the trade agreement should have already been signed at the end of April, according to the assurance of the same mass agitation and disinformation. The trade agreement should have already been signed at the end of April but negotiations continue. It seems that on most issues the parties found a compromise and this is encouraging. Consequently, the world can avoid a full-scale trade war between the two largest economies in the world. After all, such a conflict will inevitably affect all countries of the world. Even the artillery preparation, with which the United States and China arranged in the form of a mutual increase in duties on a number of goods, has greatly frightened all those who were not involved since these measures affected many countries of the world. Increased optimism about the successful conclusion of negotiations reduces risks globally, which contributes to the growth in demand for assets of developing countries and not only to them. In general, American investors are more inclined to invest outside the United States, which adversely affects the dollar.

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With the pound, everything is much more fun and joyful as is often the case. At first, the labor market data may show that the average wage growth rate accelerated from 3.4% to 3.5%, taking into account premiums. All other indicators may remain unchanged and from this, it follows that employees are willing to work more, which always pleases investors. Also, inflation in the United Kingdom should accelerate from 1.9% to 2.0%. But that's not all, as the growth rate of retail sales should accelerate from 4.0% to 4.6%, which coupled with rising inflation resulted in the rosy dream of any investor in general. Hence, the pound may be late in pursuing the single European currency and rising to 1.3150.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

New York Manufacturing Index Indicates Rebound In Pace Of Growth

Trading 15 avr 2019 Commentaire »

After reporting an unexpected slowdown in the pace of growth in New York manufacturing activity in the previous month, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report on Monday showing growth picked up somewhat in April but remained fairly subdued.

The New York Fed said its headline general business conditions index climbed to 10.1 in April after falling to 3.7 in March, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. Economists had expected the index to rise to 6.0.

The bigger than expected increase by the headline index came as the new orders index rose to 7.5 in April from 3.0 in March. The shipments index also inched up to 8.6 from 7.7.

On the other hand, the report said the number of employees index edged down to 11.9 in April from 13.8 in March, indicating modestly slower job growth.

The prices paid index also slumped to 27.3 in April from 34.1 in March, while the prices received index slid to 14.0 from 18.1.

Looking ahead, the New York Fed said optimism about the six-month outlook was much lower than in the previous month.

The index for future business conditions tumbled to 12.4 in April from 29.6 in March, hitting its lowest level in over three years.

The indexes for future new orders and shipments were also well below last month's levels, although firms continue to expect solid increases in employment and hours worked in the months ahead.

On Thursday, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its report on regional manufacturing activity in April. The Philly Fed Index is expected to drop to 10.3 in April from 13.7 in March.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com