Crude Oil Futures Settle Higher Despite Rise In Inventory

Trading 10 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures settled notably higher on Wednesday as data showing a sharp decline in gasoline stocks in the U.S. offset a surge in crude stockpiles in the week ended April 5.

Supply cuts by OPEC and allies, and the U.S. sanctions on China and Venezuela supported oil prices.

Crude oil futures for May ended up $63, or 0.98%, at $64.61 a barrel.

On Tuesday, crude oil futures for May ended down $0.42, at $63.98 a barrel, after rising to a high of $64.79.

Data released by the Energy Information Administration this morning showed crude supplies in the U.S. increased by 7 million barrels last week, significantly larger than the expected rise.

The report said U.S. crude stockpiles rose to their highest level since November 2017, amid rising imports.

On Tuesday evening, the American Petroleum Institute released a report showing a 4.1 million barrels jump in crude stockpiles last week.

However, the EIA data showed gasoline stockpiles fell 7.7 million barrels in the week, the steepest drop since September 2017. Distillates were down by 100,000 barrels last week.

Another factor that pushed up crude oil prices today was the monthly report from OPEC that showed Venezuela's oil output dropped to a long term low of below 1 million barrels per day last month, due largely to U.S. sanctions and power shortages.

Meanwhile, UAE's energy minister has reportedly said that though Russia had said earlier this week that it would increase output, it is unlikely to do so unless in coordination with the rest of the producer group.


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Treasuries Pull Back Off Best Levels But Still Close Higher

Trading 10 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Following the strength see in the previous session, treasuries saw some further upside during the trading day on Wednesday.

Treasuries pulled back off their best levels late in the day but remained in positive territory. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, dropped by 2.2 basis points to 2.477 percent.

The higher close by treasuries came after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting suggested the outlook for interest rates remains fluid.

The minutes said a majority of meeting participants expected that the evolution of the economic outlook and risks to the outlook would likely warrant leaving rates unchanged for the remainder of the year.

Several of these participants saw the current target range for rates of 2.25 to 2.50 percent as close to their estimates of its longer-run neutral level.

However, the minutes noted participants continued to emphasize that future rate decisions would depend on their ongoing assessments of the economic outlook and potential risks.

"Several participants noted that their views of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate could shift in either direction based on incoming data and other developments," the minutes said.

Some participants even indicated it would be appropriate to raise rates modestly later this year if the economy evolves as they currently expect.

With regard to the economic outlook, the minutes said participants continued to view a sustained economic expansion, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Fed's 2 percent target as the most likely outcomes over the next few years.

"Nevertheless, participants generally expected the growth rate of real GDP this year to step down from the pace seen over 2018 to a rate at or modestly above their estimates of longer-run growth," the Fed said.

A number of participants judged that economic growth in the remaining quarters of 2019 and in the subsequent couple of years would likely be a little lower than they had previously forecast.

The downward revisions were attributed to disappointing news on global growth and less of a boost from fiscal policy than had previously been anticipated.

The minutes noted that the meeting also featured continued discussions on options for transitioning to the longer-run size of the balance sheet.

On the U.S. economic front, the Labor Department released a report showing a spike in energy prices contributed to a slightly bigger than expected increase in consumer prices in the month of March.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index climbed by 0.4 percent in March after edging up by 0.2 percent in February. Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.3 percent.

Excluding the jump in energy prices and a modest increase in food prices, core consumer prices inched up by 0.1 percent in February, matching the uptick seen in the previous month. Core prices had been expected to tick up by 0.2 percent.

Meanwhile, the Treasury Department's auction of $24 billion worth of ten-year notes attracted slightly above average demand.

The ten-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.466 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.55, while the ten previous ten-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.50.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

Looking ahead, the Treasury is due to finish off this week's long-term securities auctions with the sale of $16 billion worth of thirty-year bonds on Thursday.

Reports on weekly jobless claims and producer prices may also attract attention on Thursday along with remarks by several Fed officials.


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Gold Futures Extend Recent Gains, Settle Modestly Higher

Trading 10 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Gold futures settled higher on Wednesday, extending gains to a fourth successive session, amid lingering worries about global economic growth.

The European Central Bank today held its policy rates and the forward guidance unchanged.

Post announcement of the decision, the ECB President Mario Draghi said during his press conference that the bank stands ready to deploy more policy tools, if any contingency warranted given the weaker growth outlook, and added that policymakers were studying the impact of the negative deposit rate on bank profitability, which suggest they may announce some relief measures for banks in coming months.

Gold futures for June ended up $5.60, or 0.4%, at $1,313.90 an ounce.

On Tuesday, gold futures for June ended up $6.40, at $1,308.30 an ounce.

Silver futures for May ended up $0.033, at $15.244 an ounce, while Copper futures for May settled at $2.9255 per pound, down $0.0085 from previous close.

In U.S. economic news, the Labor Department released a report showing consumer prices in the U.S. increased by slightly more than anticipated in the month of March.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index climbed by 0.4% in March after edging up by 0.2% in February. Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.3%.

Excluding the jump in energy prices and a modest increase in food prices, core consumer prices inched up by 0.1% in February, matching the uptick seen in the previous month. Core prices had been expected to tick up by 0.2%.

In his press conference today, Draghi said, "The persistence of uncertainties, related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets, is leaving marks on economic sentiment."

Further, Draghi said the incoming data continue to be weak, especially for the manufacturing sector, mainly on account of the slowdown in external demand. The impact of these factors is turning out to be somewhat longer-lasting, hence, the bank expects the slower growth momentum to extend into the current year.

Regarding the latest policy session, Draghi said the main goal was to "reassert the readiness to act if the contingency warranted."

On Brexit, Draghi said the confusion over the deal was "part and parcel of the overall uncertainty hanging" over Europe.

Gold prices edged up after the session ended, as the minutes of the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting showed the members felt the weak economic outlook would likely prompt the central bank to hold rates unchanged throughout this year.

"Several participants noted that their views of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate could shift in either direction based on incoming data and other developments," the minutes said.


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Fed Minutes Suggest Interest Rate Outlook Could Shift In Either Direction

Trading 10 avr 2019 Commentaire »

While projections provided by the Federal Reserve following the March monetary policy meeting suggested the central bank no longer expects to raise interest rates this year, the minutes of the meeting note the outlook for rates remains fluid.

The minutes said a majority of meeting participants expected that the evolution of the economic outlook and risks to the outlook would likely warrant leaving rates unchanged for the remainder of the year.

Several of these participants saw the current target range for rates of 2.25 to 2.50 percent as close to their estimates of its longer-run neutral level.

However, the minutes noted participants continued to emphasize that future rate decisions would depend on their ongoing assessments of the economic outlook and potential risks.

"Several participants noted that their views of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate could shift in either direction based on incoming data and other developments," the minutes said.

Some participants even indicated it would be appropriate to raise rates modestly later this year if the economy evolves as they currently expect.

With regard to the economic outlook, the minutes said participants continued to view a sustained economic expansion, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Fed's 2 percent target as the most likely outcomes over the next few years.

"Nevertheless, participants generally expected the growth rate of real GDP this year to step down from the pace seen over 2018 to a rate at or modestly above their estimates of longer-run growth," the Fed said.

A number of participants judged that economic growth in the remaining quarters of 2019 and in the subsequent couple of years would likely be a little lower than they had previously forecast.

The downward revisions were attributed to disappointing news on global growth and less of a boost from fiscal policy than had previously been anticipated.

The minutes noted that the meeting also featured continued discussions on options for transitioning to the longer-run size of the balance sheet.


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*Federal Reserve Releases Minutes From March Monetary Policy Meeting

Trading 10 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Federal Reserve Releases Minutes From March Monetary Policy Meeting


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Ten-Year Note Auction Attracts Slightly Above Average Demand

Trading 10 avr 2019 Commentaire »

After selling $38 billion worth of three-year notes on Tuesday, the Treasury Department sold $24 billion worth of ten-year notes on Wednesday, attracting slightly above average demand.

The ten-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.466 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.55.

Last month, the Treasury also sold $24 billion worth of ten-year notes, drawing a high yield of 2.615 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.59.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous ten-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.50.

Looking ahead, the Treasury is due to finish off this week's long-term securities auctions with the sale of $16 billion worth of thirty-year bonds on Thursday.


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April 10, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 10 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend managed to initiate two successive bullish waves towards 1.3200 (Jan. 25) then 1.3350 (Feb. 27) before the bearish pullback brought the GBPUSD pair towards the uptrend on March 8th.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27.

Instead, the depicted bearish channel was established.

Significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line were located.

Bearish rejection was anticipated around these price levels (1.3160-1.3180).

Further bearish decline is expected towards 1.2950-1.2920 where the lower limit of the depicted channel is located.

Trade Recommendations:

Any bullish pullback towards 1.3160 should be considered for another SELL entry. TP levels to be located around 1.3020 then 1.2950 - 1.2920. S/L to be located above 1.3200

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April 10, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 10 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

The bearish channel's upper limit managed to push price towards 1.1290 then 1.1235 before the EUR/USD pair could come again to meet the channel's upper limit around 1.1420.

Shortly after, the recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated on March 7th.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the Highlighted-Zone) which failed to provide adequate bearish pressure.

On March 18, a significant bullish attempt was executed above 1.1380 (the upper limit of the Highlighted-channel) demonstrating a false/temporary bullish breakout.

On March 22, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.1280 then 1.1220.

By the end of last week, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This will probably enhance further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 where a low-risk SELL entry can be offered.

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 now stands as a significant demand-zone to be watched for BUY entries if any bearish pullback occurs.

Short-term outlook remains bullish towards 1.1300 - 1.1320unless bearish breakdown below 1.1250 is achieved on H4 chart.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders were suggested to have a valid BUY entry around 1.1235. This positions is already running in profits.

TP levels to be located around 1.1280, 1.1320. SL to be located below 1.1200.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro Slides As Draghi Warns Of Global Headwinds Still Hammering Economy

Trading 10 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The euro drifted lower against its major counterparts in the European session on Wednesday, after the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi struck a cautious tone about the euro area economy, saying that global headwinds continued to weigh on growth developments and deteriorate economic outlook.

In his customary press conference in Frankfurt, Draghi acknowledged that incoming information since the last meeting in March confirmed lower growth momentum extending into the current year.

Even though certain domestic factors curbing growth are waning, global headwinds continue to weigh on euro area growth developments, Draghi warned.

Continued uncertainties stemming from geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets have dampened economic sentiment.

The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside in the wake of geopolitical uncertainties, protectionist threats and emerging market slowdown, he added.

Draghi reiterated that interest rate would remain at the current level at least through the end of 2019, and in any circumstance for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term. At its monetary policy meeting, the Governing Council left the interest rates on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility unchanged at 0.00 percent, 0.25 percent and -0.40 percent, respectively.

The currency held steady against its major counterparts in the Asian session, with the exception of the yen.

The euro lost 0.5 percent to a 2-day low of 1.1230 against the greenback, after rising to a new 2-week high of 1.1287 at 8:30 am ET. At yesterday's close, the pair was valued at 1.1261. Next key support for the euro is seen around the 1.11 mark.

Having climbed to 125.45 against the yen at 8:30 am ET, the euro pulled back, falling 0.5 percent to a weekly low of 124.80. The pair had closed Tuesday's deals at 125.15. Should the euro continues its downtrend, 122.00 is likely seen as its next support level.

The euro was down 0.3 percent at 1.1254 against the Swiss franc, following near a 3-week high of 1.1285 touched at 6:00 am ET. The euro was trading at 1.1260 a franc at Tuesday's New York session close. Further downtrend is likely to see the euro seeking support around the 1.09 level.

The European currency depreciated to a 2-day low of 0.8593 against the pound, recording a 0.5 percent drop from a high of 0.8634 seen at 5:15 pm ET. The euro was worth 0.8626 per pound at yesterday's close. The euro is poised to find support around the 0.84 level.

Data from the Office For National Statistics showed that the UK economy expanded for the second straight month, but at a slower pace.

Gross domestic product grew 0.2 percent month-on-month in February, while the economy expanded 0.5 percent in January. Economists were looking for growth to remain flat in February.

The euro fell to an 8-day low of 1.5736 against the aussie, reversing from a 2-day high of 1.5835 hit at 11:00 pm ET. The euro-aussie pair was worth 1.5808 at yesterday's close. Continuation of the euro's weakness may see it testing support around the 1.55 level.

The single currency was 0.4 percent lower at a 2-day low of 1.6650 against the kiwi, pulling back from a high of 1.6715 set at 8:15 am ET. The pair had ended trading at 1.6696 on Tuesday. The euro is seen finding support around the 1.64 mark.

The euro was notably weaker at 1.4991 against the loonie, after having risen to a 2-day high of 1.5045 at 8:30 am ET. The euro-loonie pair was quoted at 1.5010 when it finished trading on Tuesday. The euro is likely to challenge support around the 1.475 level, if it weakens again.

Looking ahead, U.S. monthly budget statement for March, as well as the Fed minutes from the March meeting are set for release in the New York session.

At 11:50 am ET, Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles will give a speech about the progress on the transition to risk-free rates at the Financial Stability Board Roundtable in Washington DC.


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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 10, 2019

Trading 10 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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We continue to look for a break above minor resistance at 145.77 and more importantly a break above resistance at 146.00 that confirms more upside pressure towards 148.50 on the way towards 151.50.

To shift the bias towards the downside a break below 144.90 is needed. Such a break will call for a decline to 143.79 and ultimately closer to 141.00 before the correction from 148.50 completes.

R3: 146.50

R2: 146.00

R1: 145.77

Pivot: 145.42

S1: 145.15

S2: 144.90

S3: 144.62

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