Crude Oil Futures End Lower Ahead Of Inventory Data

Trading 09 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures pared early gains and ended lower on Tuesday as Russia's comments that it is likely to increase crude production outweighed concerns about the ongoing unrest in Libya and likely disruptions in supply.

Additionally, worries about crude demand resurfaced after the International Monetary Fund cut its outlook for global economic growth.

Meanwhile, traders were looking ahead to the weekly crude inventory data. While the American Petroleum Institute's weekly oil report is due later in the day, the official data from Energy Information Administration is due Wednesday morning.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for May ended down $0.42, at $63.98 a barrel, after rising to a high of $64.79.

On Monday, crude oil futures for May ended up $1.32, or 2.1%, at 64.40 a barrel, a more than 5-month high.

According to a Reuters report, a Russian official suggested Monday that Russia wanted to raise oil production when it meets with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in June given improving market conditions and falling stockpiles.

The IMF today downgraded its outlook for growth in the United States, Europe, Japan and the overall global economy, citing the trade tensions, weaker business confidence, tighter financial conditions and higher policy uncertainty.

The IMF said in its World Economic Outlook that it expects the world economy to grow 3.3% this year, down from 3.6% in 2018. That would match 2016 for the weakest year since 2009. In its previous forecast in January, the IMF had predicted that international growth would reach 3.5% this year.

The IMF said the growth momentum is expected to gain steam in the second half of this year and projected a 3.6% growth for 2020, unchanged from the January prediction.


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Treasuries Move Higher Amid Renewed Trade Concerns

Trading 09 avr 2019 Commentaire »

After ending the previous session modestly lower, treasuries moved back to the upside during the trading day on Tuesday.

Bond prices gave back some ground after an early advance but remained in positive territory. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, dipped by 2 basis points to 2.499 percent.

The strength among treasuries came as traders retreated to safe havens ahead of the release of closely watched reports on inflation in the coming days as well as the start of earnings season.

Financial giants JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) are due to report their quarterly results on Friday, shedding light on what may have been a difficult quarter.

Concerns about the global economic outlook also increased the appeal of bonds, particularly after President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on European goods in response to European Union subsidies to Airbus.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer estimates the harm from the EU subsidies as $11 billion in trade each year, with the amount subject to arbitration at the World Trade Organization.

"This case has been in litigation for 14 years, and the time has come for action," Lighthizer said. "The Administration is preparing to respond immediately when the WTO issues its finding on the value of U.S. countermeasures."

"Our ultimate goal is to reach an agreement with the EU to end all WTO-inconsistent subsidies to large civil aircraft," he added. "When the EU ends these harmful subsidies, the additional U.S. duties imposed in response can be lifted." Meanwhile, a European Commission spokesman called the estimated adverse effects of the subsidies "greatly exaggerated" and pledged to retaliate against any new U.S. tariffs.

The trade dispute between Trump and the EU comes amid lingering uncertainty about the U.S. and China reaching a final trade agreement.

Traders largely shrugged off the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $38 billion worth of three-year notes, which attracted modestly below average demand.

The three-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.301 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.49, while the ten previous three-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.59.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

Looking ahead, the Treasury is due to sell $24 billion worth of ten-year notes on Wednesday and $16 billion worth of thirty-year bonds on Thursday.

Trading on Wednesday is also likely to be impacted by reaction to a report on consumer price inflation as well as the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting.


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Gold Settles Higher As Risk Appetite Wanes On Growth Worries

Trading 09 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices moved higher on Tuesday as the dollar eased against major currencies equities edged lower as growth worries resurfaced after the International Monetary Fund cut its global economic growth forecast for the year.

Brexit uncertainty, the Trump administration's threat of imposition of tariffs on a range of EU goods and skepticism about U.S.-China trade agreement, all dented investor sentiment.

The dollar index dropped to a low of 96.86, but recovered to 97.02 as the session progressed.

Gold futures for June settled at $1,308.30, gaining $6.40 for the session.

On Monday, gold futures for June ended up $6.30, or 0.5%, at $1,301.90 an ounce.

Silver futures for May ended up $0.005, at $15.211 an ounce, while Copper futures for May settled at $2.9340 per pound, up $0.0020 from previous close.

On Monday, the United States threatened that it would impose tariffs on a wide range of goods from Europe, protesting against subsidies given to Airbus.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer estimates the harm from the EU subsidies as $11 billion in trade each year, with the amount subject to arbitration at the World Trade Organization.

According to reports, the U.S. may impose tariffs on about $11 billion of EU products ranging from aircraft parts to wine.

Meanwhile, a European Commission spokesman called the estimated adverse effects of the subsidies "greatly exaggerated" and pledged to retaliate against any new U.S. tariffs.

The IMF today downgraded its outlook for growth in the United States, Europe, Japan and the overall global economy, citing the trade tensions, weaker business confidence, tighter financial conditions and higher policy uncertainty.

The IMF said in its World Economic Outlook that it expects the world economy to grow 3.3% this year, down from 3.6% in 2018. That would match 2016 for the weakest year since 2009. In its previous forecast in January, the IMF had predicted that international growth would reach 3.5% this year.

The IMF said the growth momentum is expected to gain steam in the second half of this year and projected a 3.6% growth for 2020, unchanged from the January prediction.

In economic releases from U.S. today, a report from the Commerce Department said new orders for U.S. manufactured goods fell by slightly less than expected in the month of February, dropping by 0.5%, after coming in virtually unchanged in the preceding month. Economists had expected orders to slide by 0.6%.


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Three-Year Note Auction Attracts Modestly Below Average Demand

Trading 09 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The Treasury Department kicked off this week's series of long-term securities auctions with the sale of $38 billion worth of three-year notes on Tuesday, attracting modestly below average demand.

The three-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.301 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.49.

Last month, the Treasury also sold $38 billion worth of three-year notes, drawing a higher yield of 2.448 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.56.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous three-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.59.

Looking ahead, the Treasury is due to sell $24 billion worth of ten-year notes on Wednesday and $16 billion worth of thirty-year bonds on Thursday.


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April 9, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 09 avr 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5cacc204559ca.jpg

On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend managed to initiate two successive bullish waves towards 1.3200 (Jan. 25) then 1.3350 (Feb. 27) before the bearish pullback brought the GBPUSD pair towards the uptrend on March 8th.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27.

Instead, the depicted bearish channel was established.

Significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection. This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line were located.

Bearish rejection was anticipated around these price levels (1.3160-1.3180).

Further bearish decline is expected towards 1.2950-1.2920 where the lower limit of the depicted channel is located.

Trade Recommendations:

Any bullish pullback towards 1.3160 should be considered for another SELL entry. TP levels to be located around 1.3020 then 1.2950 - 1.2920.

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April 9, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 09 avr 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5cacc0e24c046.jpg

On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

The bearish channel's upper limit managed to push price towards 1.1290 then 1.1235 before the EUR/USD pair could come again to meet the channel's upper limit around 1.1420.

Shortly after, the recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated on March 7th.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the Highlighted-Zone) which failed to provide adequate bearish pressure.

On March 18, a significant bullish attempt was executed above 1.1380 (the upper limit of the Highlighted-channel) demonstrating a false/temporary bullish breakout.

On March 22, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.1280 then 1.1220.

By the end of last week, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This will probably enhance further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 where a low-risk SELL entry can be offered.

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 now stands as a significant demand-zone to be watched for BUY entries if any bearish pullback occurs.

Short-term outlook remains bullish towards 1.1300 unless bearish breakdown below 1.1250 is achieved on H4 chart.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards 1.1235 for a valid BUY entry.

TP levels to be located around 1.1280, 1.1320. SL to be located below 1.1200.

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IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast On Trade Tensions, Policy Uncertainty

Trading 09 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slashed the global growth forecast for this year, citing the trade tensions, weaker business confidence, tighter financial conditions and higher policy uncertainty.

The Washington-based global lender cut the growth forecast for this year to 3.3 percent in its latest World Economic Outlook, or WEO, which is released twice a year.

In a January update to the WEO, the IMF had predicted 3.5 percent, which was lower than 3.7 percent seen in the October report. The growth momentum is expected to gain steam in the second half of this year.

Growth for 2020 was projected at 3.6 percent, which was unchanged from the January prediction. "This recovery is precarious and predicated on a rebound in emerging market and developing economies," IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said. Growth in the emerging market and developing economies is projected to rise to 4.8 percent next year from 4.4 percent this year. However, the rebound is based on an expected rebound in growth in Argentina and Turkey and some improvement in other stressed economies, making the prediction subject to considerable uncertainty, the IMF said. "While the global economy continues to grow at a reasonable rate and a global recession is not in the baseline projections, there are many downside risks," Gopinath said.

"Given these risks, it is imperative that costly policy mistakes are avoided," she added.

Beyond 2020, the IMF expects global growth to stabilize at around 3.5 percent, bolstered mainly by growth in China and India and their increasing weights in world income.

Gopinath stressed on the need for greater?multilateral cooperation?to resolve trade conflicts, to address climate change and risks from cybersecurity, and to improve the effectiveness of international taxation.

"This is a delicate moment for the global econom," she said. "If the downside risks do not materialize and the policy support put in place is effective, global growth should rebound."

Advanced economies are projected to grow 1.8 percent this year, which is slower than the January prediction of 2 percent. The forecast for next year was retained at 1.7 percent.

The US growth forecast for this year was slashed to 2.3 percent from 2.5 percent. The outlook for next year was raised to 1.9 percent from 1.8 percent.

Eurozone's growth projection for this year was trimmed to 1.3 percent from 1.6 percent and the outlook for next year was cut to 1.5 percent from 1.7 percent. The big four euro area economies - Germany, France, Italy and Spain - are forecast to grow in both years, though their forecasts for this year were trimmed. The 2020 projection for Germany and France were cut. The UK growth forecast for this year was slashed to 1.2 percent from 1.5 percent and the outlook for next year was trimmed to 1.4 percent from 1.6 percent.

The IMF warned that the UK economy would lose about 3.5 percent of GDP by 2021 in a no-deal Brexit. Japan and Canada also had their growth forecast for this year downgraded.

Among emerging market and developing economies, China's growth forecast for this year was raised to 6.3 percent from 6.2 percent. The outlook for next year was lowered to 6.1 from 6.2 percent. India, where the general election starts this week, had its growth outlook for this year cut to 7.3 percent from 7.5 percent. The projection for next year was slashed to 7.5 percent from 7.7 percent.


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*UK To Lose About 3.5% Of GDP By 2021 In No-Deal Brexit: IMF

Trading 09 avr 2019 Commentaire »

UK To Lose About 3.5% Of GDP By 2021 In No-Deal Brexit: IMF


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*IMF Retains 2020 Global Growth Projection At 3.6%

Trading 09 avr 2019 Commentaire »

IMF Retains 2020 Global Growth Projection At 3.6%


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*IMF Trims 2019 Global Growth Forecast To 3.3% From 3.5%

Trading 09 avr 2019 Commentaire »

IMF Trims 2019 Global Growth Forecast To 3.3% From 3.5%


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