Latvia Inflation Slows For Second Month

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Latvia's consumer price inflation slowed for the second consecutive month in March, figures from the Central Statistical Bureau showed Monday.

The consumer price index climbed 2.8 percent from a year ago in March, following a 2.9 percent rise in February. In January, inflation rate was 3 percent.

Housing cost grew by 5.7 percent annually in March and prices increased by 5.4 percent in alcohol and tobacco.

Prices grew 3.6 percent in restaurants and hotels, and more than 2.5 percent each in education, recreation and culture, and communication.

On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose 1.1 percent in March.


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Taiwan Export Decline Slows In March

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Taiwan's exports declined at a slower rate in March and imports rose after falling sharply in the previous month, figures from the Finance Ministry showed on Monday.

Total exports fell 4.4 percent year-on-year in March, following an 8.8 percent decline in February.

Imports rose 6.6 percent annually in March, reversing a 19.7 percent slump in the previous month.

The trade surplus registered a massive annual fall of 48.1 percent from a year ago to US$3.12 billion.

Among the leading export commodities, exports of information, communication and audio-video products increased.

Meanwhile, the shipment of parts of electronic product, base metals and articles of base metal, machinery, plastics and rubber, and articles declined in March.

Imports of parts of electronic product and machinery grew in February, while mineral products, chemicals, base metals and articles of base metal declined.

Exports to Japan, U.S.A. and Europe increased, while those to Mainland China and Hong Kong, and ASEAN declined.

In the January to March period, exports declined 4.2 percent from a year ago and imports fell 0.8 percent.


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Hungary Exports Rises In February

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Hungary's exports and imports rose in February leading to an increase in the trade surplus, preliminary data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office showed on Monday.

The trade surplus grew by EUR 49 million year-on-year to EUR 891 million.

The exports rose 6.9 percent year-on-year, following a 6.5 percent rise in January.

Imports climbed 7.0 percent annually in February, after a 9.7 percent increase in the previous month.

During the January to February period, exports rose 6.7 percent and imports grew 8.4 percent, resulting in a trade deficit of EUR 166 million.


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U.S. Factory Orders Drop 0.5% In February

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »

New orders for U.S. manufactured goods fell by slightly less than expected in the month of February, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Monday.

The report said factory orders dropped by 0.5 percent in February after coming in virtually unchanged in January. Economists had expected orders to slide by 0.6 percent.

The decrease in factory orders came as orders for durable goods tumbled by 1.6 percent, more than offsetting a 0.6 percent increase in orders for non-durable goods.

Excluding a 4.5 percent nosedive in orders for transportation equipment, factory orders rose by 0.3 percent in February after edging down by 0.1 percent in January.

The Commerce Department also said shipments of manufactured goods rose by 0.4 percent in February after slipping by 0.3 percent in the previous month.

Inventories of manufactured goods also increased by 0.3 percent in February after climbing by 0.5 percent in January.

With inventories and shipments both rising, the inventories-to-shipments ratio was unchanged from the previous month at 1.36.


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Good Monday for the euro: reasons for the correction of EUR/USD and target levels

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »

On the first trading day of the week, the dollar bulls weakened their grip, after which the EUR/USD pair was able to move away from the levels of local minima and even demonstrate a fairly clear correction, rising to the middle of the 12th figure. The pair has the first resistance level of 1.1285 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart) when overcoming which it will be possible to speak with confidence about the conquest of the 13th figure, at least to the level of 1.1315 (the Kijun-Sen line on the daily chart). However, it is still too early to talk about this, given the unreliability of those fundamental factors that are now pushing the pair up.

The correction of the euro-dollar pair is due to two reasons: first, the decline in the yield of 10-year-old American Treasuries, and secondly – rumors that the European regulator at its April meeting may revise the policy of negative rates. The combination of such fundamental factors weakened the greenbacks and allowed the EUR/USD bulls to show character. If we consider the situation in a broader aspect, today's corrective growth is due to the fact that the bears did not push and did not gain a foothold below 1.1160. According to the results of Friday Nonfarms, the sellers could not even reach this level of support, which is of key importance for the development of the southern trend. The events of Monday finally knocked the ground out from under the sellers' feet, after which the buyers expectedly intercepted the initiative.

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After the publication of conflicting data on the US labor market, traders did not immediately determine the EUR/USD movement. First, the pendulum swung towards the bulls of the pair, then the mood changed, and the price completed the five-day trading at the bottom of the 12th figure. Today, the market has decided that "the glass is still half empty", rather than vice versa: a significant slowdown in wage growth indicates a further slowdown in US inflation. Against the background of such prospects, record low unemployment and an impressive increase in the number of employed could not convince traders: the dollar began to slowly get rid of. By and large, the US labor market has always been reliable support for the dollar, while downward inflation can play a decisive role in determining the future fate of the Fed's monetary policy. Given the recent statements by Trump and his protege at the Fed, Stephen Moore about the need to lower the rate, the overall picture does not appear in favor of the dollar, despite the restoration of Nonfarm (relative to February values).

In addition, the market is optimistic about the outcome of the next negotiations between Beijing and Washington. The previous round ended on April 5, and this week the parties will meet again, continuing the discussion of the details of the "broad" trade transaction. The probability that the tariff war will end with a truce (and in the foreseeable future) is growing "by leaps and bounds," especially after the loud statement of Donald Trump. Many experts are confident that the deal will be signed before the end of April, although in my opinion, these are too hasty conclusions. The tone of the rhetoric of the representatives of China and the United States has really changed lately, but any statement on this issue is accompanied by a note about the remaining differences. Therefore, most likely the parties will finally blow out to the finish line closer to the beginning of the summer, that is, to the G20 summit, which will be held on June 8-9. Nevertheless, the general mood in the market has changed, the risk appetite has increased, and the yield of treasuries, as well as the demand for the dollar – has decreased.

The above factors put pressure on the US currency, while the single currency received unexpected support from the European Central Bank. Last week, Mario Draghi rather transparently hinted that members of the regulator are concerned about the "negative consequences of negative interest rates". Although this statement cannot be interpreted as a signal for a possible tightening of monetary policy, such rhetoric surprised traders. The fact is that earlier members of the ECB expressed confidence that negative rates have only a positive effect on the eurozone economy, keeping silent about side effects.

Initially, this statement by Draghi put pressure on the euro because the losses of the banking sector of the ECB can be reduced by using LTRO or similar mechanisms. But this week it was reported that representatives of the German banking sector called on the European Central Bank to introduce a differential rate on deposits. At the moment, there is no reliable information – whether the members of the regulator agree to consider this issue at the April meeting or not. But the issue of reducing the interest rate will certainly not be discussed – this was reported today by two news agencies, citing informed sources. This fact was the main reason for the strengthening of the single currency, against the backdrop of the weakening of the dollar and a general fundamental background in the market.

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Despite the impressive correctional growth, the bulls of the EUR/USD pair still need to gain a foothold above 1.1285 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart) in order to reverse the situation and enter the 13th figure. Otherwise, the price will slide back to the base of the 12th figure, continuing to demonstrate a wide-range flat.

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Czech Industrial Production Rises In February

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The Czech Republic's industrial production rose in February after falling in the previous month, data from the Czech Statistical Office showed on Monday.

Industrial production rose 1.5 percent year-on-year in February, reversing a 1.0 percent fall in January. Economists had expected production to rise 1.8 percent.

Manufacturing output rose 0.9 percent in February, following a 3.3 percent fall in the previous month.

On a month-on-month basis, industrial production rose 0.5 percent in February.

Another report from the statistical office showed that, construction output rose 5.8 percent annually in February, after a 13.2 percent decline in January.

On a monthly basis, construction output fell 0.5 percent in February.

The Czech Statistical Office also reported that, the trade surplus grew to CZK 17.6 billion in February from CZK 14.6 billion in January. Economists had expected a surplus of CZK 16.0 billion.

The surplus was CZK 1.4 billion lower than a year ago.

Exports rose 5.1 percent yearly and imports rose 6.0 percent in February.


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Dollar Falls Vs Most Majors Ahead Of U.S. Factory Orders

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »

At 10:00 am ET Monday, the U.S. factory orders for February are due. Ahead of the data, the greenback traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the greenback dropped against the euro, the yen and the franc, it rose against the pound.

The greenback was worth 111.32 against the yen, 1.3044 against the pound, 1.1271 against the euro and 0.9980 against the franc as of 9:55 am ET.


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Czech Industrial Production Rises In February

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The Czech Republic's industrial production rose in February after falling in the previous month, data from the Czech Statistical Office showed on Monday.

Industrial production rose 1.5 percent year-on-year in February, reversing a 1.0 percent fall in January. Economists had expected production to rise 1.8 percent.

Manufacturing output rose 0.9 percent in February, following a 3.3 percent fall in the previous month.

On a month-on-month basis, industrial production rose 0.5 percent in February.

Another report from the statistical office showed that, construction output rose 5.8 percent annually in February, after a 13.2 percent decline in January.

On a monthly basis, construction output fell 0.5 percent in February.

The Czech Statistical Office also reported that, the trade surplus grew to CZK 17.6 billion in February from CZK 14.6 billion in January. Economists had expected a surplus of CZK 16.0 billion.

The surplus was CZK 1.4 billion lower than a year ago.

Exports rose 5.1 percent yearly and imports rose 6.0 percent in February.


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"Hard" Brexit loomed again on the horizon

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The British currency continues to be under strong pressure since Brexit's "hard" scenario is still on the table.

According to the British Prime Minister Theresa May, only the achievement of a compromise between the Conservatives and Labor will allow the current situation around the "divorce" process to get off the ground.

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"Since the parliament has made it clear that it will block the exit of the country from the European Union without a deal, we now have a hard choice: either leave the alliance with the agreement or not leave it at all," she said.

The stumbling block in the negotiations between the Conservatives and the Labor Party is the question of holding a second referendum and maintaining British membership in the Customs Union. The opposition insists that after Brexit, the country should keep as close as possible economic ties with the EU, while May and her supporters want to withdraw the state from the single trade and legal space of the bloc.

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"Now we are waiting for the cabinet members to come to us and tell if they are ready to cross one of the red lines they have drawn. We had excellent negotiations and discussed many technical details. However, so far we have not seen any steps on the part of the government that would prove that it is ready to change at least one clause of the agreement, "said Rebecca Long-Bailey, a representative of the Labor Party.

Brussels hopes that the parties will be able to reach an agreement before the start of the summit of European leaders, which will be held on April 10.

Recall that last week, Theresa May asked the EU to postpone the final date of Brexit to June 30th and whether the alliance will meet her will be known already this Wednesday.

"It is assumed that there will be another extension of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, but this is still an unresolved issue, and this week a number of turns may occur, which will lead to the volatility of the pound," said by MUFG analyst, Lee Hardman.

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EUR / USD plan for the American session on April 8. The euro has passed an important level of resistance and gaining strength

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The euro managed to overcome the resistance in the area of 1.1248 after a good report on the indicator of investor confidence, which led to the demolition of a number of stop orders of sellers and the formation of a new upward trend with the exit from the side channel. As long as trading continues to be above support at 1.1248, the demand for the euro will continue, which will lead to an update of the maximum near 1.1284 and 1.1324, where I recommend taking profits. Under the scenario of a decline below the level of 1.1248, it is best to open long positions in the euro to rebound from a low of 1.1212.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears did not manage to keep the pair below the resistance of 1.1248 and the main task for the second half of the day will be to return to this level, which may scare away potential euro buyers and push the EUR/USD pair down to the support area of 1.1212, where I recommend taking profits. In a scenario of further growth of the pair, it is best to open short positions to a rebound from the maximum of 1.1284 and 1.1324.

More in the video forecast for April 8

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the resumption of the bull market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a decline, support will be provided by the average Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1235.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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