Dollar Exhibits Weakness Against Major Currencies

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar traded weak against most of its major rivals on Monday, amid growing speculation that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike interest rates anytime in the foreseeable futures.

Traders were also looking ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meeting for further clues about the central bank's policy stance.

The dollar index was down 0.33 points or 0.34%, at 97.05, after falling to a low of 96.98.

Ahead of the European Central Bank's meeting this week, the euro strengthened, recovering from previous week's losses.

The Euro was trading at $1.1262, gaining about 0.4%.

In economic news from Europe, Eurozone investor confidence strengthened for a second straight month to its highest level in four months, according to survey data from the behavioral finance research group Sentix.

According to data released by the Federal Statistical Office, Germany's exports and imports declined more-than-expected in February at the fastest pace in a year.

Exports fell a calendar and seasonally-adjusted 1.3% month-on-month, preliminary figures showed. Economists had forecast a 0.4% drop.

The decline was the first in three months and the biggest since February 2018, when shipments shrunk 2.3%.

Imports decreased 1.6% in February, which was more than double the 0.7% slump economists had forecast.

On a year-on-year basis, exports increased 3.9% following 1.7% rise in the previous month. Imports climbed 5.1% after a 4.9% rise in January. Both exports and imports grew for a second straight month.

Meanwhile, the Bank of France has retained its growth forecast for the first quarter of the year at 0.3%.

The survey data from the bank showed that the business confidence indicator in manufacturing industry was steady at 100, while it was expected to rise to 102.

The sentiment indicators for services and constructions sectors were unchanged at 101 and 106, respectively.

Manufacturers expect the activity to grow at the same pace in April, while services firms and constructors are looking forward to an acceleration in growth, the survey said.

The British Pound Sterling advanced as well with markets focusing on British Prime Minister Theresa May's likely moves to convince the EU to buy time for Brexit.

According to reports, May is hoping to re-start stalled Brexit negotiations with her chief political rival Jeremy Corbyn later today.

EU leaders are due to meet at a summit on April 10, where Mrs May will be expected to present her new deal.

The U.S. dollar weakened to 1.3064 against the pound, losing about 0.21%.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was declining 0.19%, with a unit of greenback fetching to 111.50 yen.

Data released by the Ministry of Finance showed Japan had current account surplus of 2,676.8 billion yen in February, exceeding expectations for a surplus of 2,633.5 billion yen following the 600.4 billion yen surplus in January.

Exports were down 1.9% on year, while imports skidded an annual 6.6%. The trade surplus came in at 489.2 billion yen, shy of expectations for 591.3 billion yen but up from the 964.8 billion yen deficit in the previous month.

The adjusted current account showed a surplus of 1,957.6 billion, beating forecasts for 1,920.9 billion yen and up from 1,833.0 billion yen a month earlier.

A report from the Cabinet Office showed Japan consumer confidence weakened to the lowest in three years in March, falling to a seasonally adjusted score of 40.5, from 41.5 in February. Economists had expected the reading to remain unchanged.

The USD/CHF pair was trading at 0.9989, with the dollar losing about 0.14%.

Against the Loonie, the dollar was down more than 0.5% at 1.3313, while against the Aussie, it was up 0.3% at 0.7127.

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Crude Oil Futures Climb Sharply, Settle At Over 5-month High

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices ended notably higher on Monday, amid expectations that escalating conflicts in Libya, along with OPEC-led production cuts and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela could significantly tighten global crude supply in the near term.

According to reports, the unrest in Libya flared up over the weekend after its government said it would start a counterattack to clear the forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar.

On Sunday, Haftar's forces and the UN-backed unity government exchanged air strikes. Earlier last week, Haftar launched an offensive, aiming to seize the capital.

Last week's data from the Labor Department showed a notable increase in U.S. jobs growth in March helped clear doubts about growth in the world's largest economy and wiped off concerns about energy demand.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for May ended up $1.32, or 2.1%, at 64.40 a barrel, a more than 5-month high.

On Friday, crude oil futures ended up $0.98, or 1.6%, at $63.08 a barrel.

A recent survey by S&P Global Platts showed crude supply in the market dropped considerably in March, after OPEC slashed 570,000 barrels per day from its February output level. Extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia and power outages in Venezuela and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela resulted in falling supply levels.

The oil cartel and its allies have pledged to withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply this year.

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Treasuries Show Modest Move To The Downside

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries showed a modest move to the downside during the trading day on Monday, offsetting the uptick seen in the previous session.

Bond prices initially showed a lack of direction before spending the afternoon stuck below the unchanged line. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, inched up by 1.8 basis points at 2.519 percent.

Traders seemed reluctant to make more significant moves as they await additional clues about the economic outlook and the likelihood of a U.S.-China trade deal being finalized.

A light day on the U.S. economic kept some traders on the sidelines, although the Commerce Department did release a report showing new orders for manufactured goods fell by slightly less than expected in the month of February.

The report said factory orders dropped by 0.5 percent in February after coming in virtually unchanged in January. Economists had expected orders to slide by 0.6 percent.

Amid another quiet day in terms of the economic news, trading on Tuesday may be impacted by reaction to the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $38 billion worth of three-year notes.

Later in the week, traders are likely to keep an eye on reports on consumer and producer prices as well as the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting.

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Gold Futures Settle Modestly Higher As Dollar Eases

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices moved higher on Monday as the dollar eased and stock markets exhibited a sluggish trend ahead of the earnings season.

Traders were also looking ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meeting and news on Brexit and U.S.-China trade negotiations.

The dollar index dropped to a low of 96.08 and subsequently edged up a bit to 97.04, down more than 0.3% from previous close.

Gold futures for June ended up $6.30, or 0.5%, at $1,301.90, the first close above $1,300 since March 27.

On Friday, gold futures ended up $1.30, or 0.1%, at $1,295.60 an ounce.

Silver futures for May ended up $0.130, at $15.216 an ounce, while Copper futures for May closed at $2.9320 per pound, gaining $0.3750 for the session.

On Friday, the Labor Department's jobs data showed a notable increase in jobs in the month of March, but average hourly wages dropped in the month.

While employment increased, wage growth lost momentum in March, with average hourly earnings rising a modest 0.1% after jumping 0.4% in February.

The moderation in wage growth reiterated investor expectations that the Fed will suspend further interest rate increases this year.

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April 8, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »


On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend managed to initiate two successive bullish waves towards 1.3200 (Jan. 25) then 1.3350 (Feb. 27) before the bearish pullback brought the GBPUSD pair towards the uptrend on March 8th.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27.

Instead, the depicted bearish channel was established.

Significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection. This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line were located.

Bearish rejection was anticipated around these price levels (1.3160-1.3180).

Further bearish decline is expected towards 1.2950-1.2920 where the lower limit of the depicted channel is located.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders who had SELL entries around the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) should have taken partial profit taking around 1.3050-1.3030 Trailing SL to be lowered to 1.3100 to secure remaining profits.

Any bullish pullback towards 1.3160 should be considered for another SELL entry. TP levels to be located around 1.3020 then 1.2950 - 1.2920.

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April 8, 2019 : EUR/USD demonstrating a bullish reversal pattern around 1.1200.

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »


On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

The bearish channel's upper limit managed to push price towards 1.1290 then 1.1235 before the EUR/USD pair could come again to meet the channel's upper limit around 1.1420.

Shortly after, the recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated on March 7th.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the Highlighted-Zone) which failed to provide adequate bearish pressure.

On March 18, a significant bullish attempt was executed above 1.1380 (the upper limit of the Highlighted-channel) demonstrating a false/temporary bullish breakout.

On March 22, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.1280 then 1.1220.

By the end of last week, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200. This will probably enhance further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 where a low-risk SELL entry can be offered.

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 now stands as a significant demand-zone to be watched for BUY entries if any bearish pullback occurs.

Short-term outlook remains bullish towards 1.1300 unless bearish breakdown below 1.1250 is achieved on H4 chart.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards 1.1235 for a valid BUY entry.

TP levels to be located around 1.1280, 1.1320. SL to be located below 1.1200.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Results of the day for GBP / USD pair on April 8th. Theresa May travels to Paris and Berlin to negotiate a deferment

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »

4 hour timeframe


The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 140p - 137p - 75p - 131p - 135p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 124p (128p).

The British sterling pound on Monday, April 8th, showed nothing extraordinary but only slight correction. In the meantime, Theresa May is going to meet tomorrow with Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel to discuss a possible Brexit postponement until June 30 but not all EU countries support such an initiative. For example, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz believes that "there is no reason for extending the UK exit from the EU." If all 27 countries do not approve the request of May, then Brexit will take place in 4 days under the "hard" scenario. The head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, proposes that Brexit to be postponed for one year, which will allow Theresa May to concentrate on working on negotiating a "deal" with the parliament, rather than asking every two to three weeks for a new postponement and his words look the most reasonable. Meanwhile, Laborites allow for the possible abolition of Brexit, as they promised that the country would not leave the EU without agreement. By and large, the stalemate remains and the British Parliament along with Theresa May and the EU cannot agree. We continue to be surprised that the pound has not yet updated the one and a half year lows caused all this chaos but let's see how May's trip to Berlin and Paris will end. The Postponement of London will most likely give, only that this time is spent? On the next conviction of the parliament that you need to vote for the "deal" of Theresa May. How many more votes will be needed to get through the necessary agreement? After all, the document itself does not change in fact. If the Parliament eventually adopts it, then it will mean that it was rejected several times at first and then unexpectedly adopted the same document.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair is adjusted in the framework of the downward trend. Thus, it is now recommended to wait for the completion of the correction and resume trading for a fall with the targets at 1,300 and 1.2947.

It is recommended to open buy orders if the bulls manage to return the pair above the critical line with a target of 1.3171, but there is no fundamental reason for this option right now.

It should be noted.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

EUR/USD. April 8. Results of the day. The pair rebounded again from 1.1200 and can go up by 80-100 points

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »

4-hour timeframe


The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 46p - 32p - 55p - 42p - 38p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 42p (42p).

The first trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair was surprisingly quite active. During the day, the pair scored about 50 points. On the chart, it looks like a strong enough upward movement, but in practice, it is only 50 points, which fully corresponds to the size of the average volatility for the last 5 days. Thus, from our point of view, nothing supernatural happened. We also state the fact that the pair once again failed to overcome the level of 1.1200. Although with each subsequent attempt, the chances of overcoming this level increase, yet everything remains in their places. No fundamental data have been received to date. The only report published today was American on production orders, which showed a decline of 0.5%. Unfortunately for the EUR/USD pair, it does not have such an inexhaustible theme as GBP/USD has (meaning Brexit). Thus, in general, the low volatility of the pair is not surprising. From a technical point of view, a new "golden cross" is being developed, which is weak, as the price is trading in the Ichimoku cloud. There are small chances for the strengthening of the European currency, but there is no fundamental basis for growth. Only technical, which are based just on the next unsuccessful attempt to get below the level of 1.1200.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started a new upward movement, which is still weak. Thus, purchase orders with targets at 1.1289 and 1.1304, but in small lots, are currently relevant, as the "golden cross" is weak.

Short positions are also recommended to consider small lots with the target of 1.1181 if the pair consolidates back below the Kijun-Sen line.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 8, 2019

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »


The Brexit deadlock and general low volatility in the FX market keeps GBP/JPY locked in a narrow range. We continue to look for a break above resistance at 145.75 and more importantly a break above 146.55 that confirms more upside pressure towards 148.50 and 151.50.

Only an unexpected break below 144.93 will call for more downside pressure before higher again.

R3: 148.00

R2: 147.50

R1: 147.00

Pivot: 146.26

S1: 145.57

S2: 145.39

S3: 144.90

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 146.51 with our stop placed at 144.80

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 8, 2019

Trading 08 avr 2019 Commentaire »


EUR/JPY remains stuck in a narrow range. We continue to favor the downside for a break below support at 124.95 that confirms more downside pressure towards 123.65 and ideally closer to 120.95 longer-term.

R3: 126.18

R2: 125.75

R1: 125.43

Pivot: 124.94

S1: 124.45

S2: 124.17

S3: 123.65

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 124.25 with our stop placed at 126.20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -