Crude Oil Futures Settles Lower Again

Trading 04 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures settled lower on Thursday, extending losses to a second straight day, weighed down by recent data that showed a sharp rise in U.S. crude inventories.

However, lingering concerns about global economy and OPEC-led output cuts and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela limited oil's decline.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for May rose to a high of $62.99 a barrel, before settling at $62.10, losing $0.36.

On Wednesday, crude oil futures ended down $0.12, or 0.2%, at $62.46 a barrel.

Data released by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that crude inventory in the U.S. rose 7.24 million barrels in the week ended March 29, against expectations of a drop of over 0.4 million barrels. In the week ended March 22, stockpiles increased by 2.8 million barrels.

The EIA also said gasoline inventories dropped by 1.78 million barrels last week, higher than what was forecast. Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles dropped by 2 million barrels.

Meanwhile, on the trade front, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to announce plans for summit meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, after the conclusion of his meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He today.


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Treasuries Close Nearly Flat Ahead Of Monthly Jobs Report

Trading 04 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries turned in a relatively lackluster performance during trading on Thursday before ending the session only slightly higher.

Bond prices spent much of the day hovering just above the unchanged line. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, edged down by less than a basis point to 2.512 percent.

The choppy trading on the day came as traders awaited news on the U.S.-China trade front as well as the release of the monthly jobs report.

Traders are likely to keep an eye on any news out of a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He later today.

The looming monthly jobs report also kept traders on the sidelines, with the Labor Department scheduled to release the March data on Friday.

A day ahead of the release of the more closely watched monthly data, the Labor Department released a report showing initial jobless claims slipped to their lowest level in nearly 50 years in the week ended March 30th.

The report said initial jobless claims dipped to 202,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level of 212,000.

The drop surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to inch up to 216,000 from the 211,000 originally reported for the previous week.

With the unexpected decrease, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since hitting a matching number in December of 1969.

On Friday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release its highly anticipated report on the employment situation in the month of March.

Employment is expected to jump by 180,000 jobs in March after inching up by just 20,000 jobs in February, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.8 percent.


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Gold Futures Settle Slightly Lower As Dollar Rises

Trading 04 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices edged lower on Thursday as the dollar gained some ground in positive territory after data showed a drop in initial jobless claims.

However, the yellow metal's fall was just marginal as global stocks were mostly lackluster due to worries about global growth and continued uncertainty about Brexit.

The dollar index gained over 0.2% to 97.31.

Gold futures for June ended down $1.00, or nearly 0.1% down at $1,294.30 an ounce.

On Wednesday, gold futures ended down $0.10, at $1,295.30 an ounce.

Silver futures for May ended down $0.018, at $15.084 an ounce, while Copper futures for May settled at $2.9100 per pound, losing $0.0385.

According to the report released by the Labor Department today, first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly decreased in the week ended March 30th.

The report said initial jobless claims dipped to 202,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level of 212,000.

Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 216,000 from the 211,000 originally reported for the previous week.

With the unexpected decrease, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since hitting a matching number in December of 1969.

A report on payrolls, wages, and joblessness for the month of March tomorrow.

U.S. employment is expected to jump by 180,000 jobs in March after inching up by just 20,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.8%.

On trade talks front, U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He later in the day. It is expected that Trump may announce plans for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping after the meeting.

Earlier in the day, Trump tweeted that talks with China were moving along nicely.

On Brexit, British lawmakers on Wednesday approved a bill to seek a Brexit delay to prevent Britain from crashing out of EU without a deal.


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Treasury Reveals Details Of Next Week's Long-Term Securities Auctions

Trading 04 avr 2019 Commentaire »

On Thursday, the Treasury Department announced the details of next week's auctions of three-year and ten-year notes and thirty-year bonds.

The Treasury said it plans to sell $38 billion worth of three-year notes next Tuesday, $24 billion worth of ten-year notes next Wednesday and $16 billion worth of thirty-year bonds next Thursday.

Last month, the Treasury also sold 38 billion worth of three-year notes, $24 billion worth of ten-year notes and $16 billion worth of thirty-year bonds.

The ten-year note auction attracted above average demand last month, while the three-year note and thirty-year bond auctions attracted slightly below average demand.


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April 4, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 04 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

The bearish channel's upper limit managed to push price towards 1.1290 then 1.1235 before the EUR/USD pair could come again to meet the channel's upper limit around 1.1420.

Shortly after, the recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated on March 7th.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the Highlighted-Zone) which failed to provide adequate bearish pressure.

On March 18, a bullish breakout attempt was executed above 1.1327 (the upper limit of the Highlighted-zone). This enhanced further bullish movement towards 1.1450 demonstrating a false bullish breakout above the upper limit of the depicted movement channel.

On the other hand, On March 22, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated around 1.1380 leading to the current bearish decline towards 1.1220 then 1.1220.

Theoretically, the short term outlook for EURUSD pair remains bearish towards 1.1170 and 1.1120 as long as Bearish persistence below 1.1235 (Fibonacci 78.6%) is maintained on H4 chart.

On the other hand, a bullish breakout above 1.1235 would confirm the depicted bullish Head & Shoulders pattern allowing another bullish pullback to occur towards 1.1280-1.1320 where a better SELL entry can be offered.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for a bullish breakout above 1.1235 for a valid BUY entry.

TP levels to be located around 1.1280, 1.1320. SL to be located below 1.1200.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

India Service Sector Growth Slows In March

Trading 04 avr 2019 Commentaire »

India's service sector growth eased marginally in March as gains in new work and employment slowed, survey results from IHS Markit showed on Thursday.

The Nikkei services purchasing managers' index, or PMI, fell to 52.0 in March from 52.5 in February. The latest reading was the lowest since last September.

Any reading above 50 indicates an expansion in the sector.

The Composite PMI Output Index fell to 52.7 in March from 53.8 in February.

The rate of expansion in new business eased in March and export sales increased for the second time in five months. While growth of new work from abroad rose to a four-month high.

Backlogs of works rose further in March to the second-fastest since October 2017.

Employment level increased slightly, but the rate of job creation eased to a six-month low, while jobs growth in manufacturing sector weakened to a nineteen-month low.

The rate of charged inflation accelerated slightly, remaining below the long-run average. Meanwhile, input cost inflation eased to a three-month low in March.

"Business expectations strengthened in March, indicating that services companies are hopeful that conditions will advance in the months to come," Pollyanna De Lima, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, said.


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April 4, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 04 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend line managed to push price towards 1.3200 before the GBP/USD pair came to meet the uptrend again around 1.2775 on February 14.

Another bullish wave was demonstrated towards 1.3350 (Feb. 27) before the bearish pullback brought the pair towards the uptrend again.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair towards the up-trend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair pursued the bullish momentum towards 1.3130, 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high than the one achieved on February 27.

Instead, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated below 1.3250. That's why, the short term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any immediate bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

By the end of last week, the price levels of 1.3020-1.3000 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line are located.

Bearish rejection was anticipated around these price levels (1.3160-1.3180). Further bearish decline is expected towards 1.2950-1.2920 where the lower limit of the depicted channel is located.

Trade Recommendations:

Based on Yesterday's recommendations, Intraday traders who had SELL entries around the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) should have partial profit taking around 1.3070-1.3050.

Remaining TP levels to be located around 1.3020, 1.2950 and 1.2920 while SL to be lowered to 1.3100 to secure remaining profits.

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Dutch Inflation At 5 1/2-Years High

Trading 04 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The Netherlands' consumer price inflation rose for the fourth month in a row to a five-and-half-year high in March, driven by higher prices of petrol and food, data from the statistical office CBS showed Thursday.

The consumer price index rose 2.8 percent year-on-year in March, following a 2.6 percent rise in February. In January, inflation was 2.2 percent.

The latest inflation rate was the highest since August 2013, when it was 2.8 percent.

The price of petrol increased the most, by 5.0 percent, in March after a 0.9 percent rise in February. Food inflation went up to 3.8 percent, the third time it grew so much in the past decade.

The EU measure of the harmonized index of consumer prices, or HICP, rose 2.9 percent annually in March, after a 2.6 percent rise in the previous month, in line with economists' expectation.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices registered a 0.4 percent rise in March, following a 0.9 percent increase in the prior month.


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ECB Policymakers Concerned That Current Soft Patch Would Last Longer: Minutes

Trading 04 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The European Central Bank policymakers expressed concern in the March policy session that the current soft patch in the economic momentum would last longer than projected, the minutes of the session showed on Thursday.

"Members acknowledged that, while the baseline scenario of a more protracted "soft patch" followed by a return to more solid growth was the most likely scenario, uncertainty remained elevated and it was unclear how persistent the current soft patch would turn out to be," the minutes, which the ECB calls the "account", of the March 6-7 Governing Council meeting said. Policymakers stressed the growth momentum was weaker, but remained positive. "Neither the euro area, nor the global economy, was currently in recession and the probability of a recession remained relatively low," the minutes said. In March, the ECB Governing Council, led by President Mario Draghi, cut the growth outlook for this year to 1.1 percent from 1.7 percent seen in December. The outlook for next year was trimmed to 1.6 percent from 1.7 percent.

The view was widely shared that downside risks to the growth outlook continued to prevail, despite the downward revisions incorporated in the March projections, the minutes said.

Some member also remarked that some factors behind the slowdown, such as the weakness in the Chinese economy, are unlikely to fade away in a few months. "Uncertainty might also turn out to be more persistent than expected and concern was expressed that, if the current high level of uncertainty persisted, there could be a stronger adverse impact looking ahead, in particular on investment," the minutes said. Policymakers concluded that had the risk factors had the potential to further affect confidence and global activity negatively, with adverse spillovers to activity in the euro area.

The Governing Council also debated the impact of the ultra-low interest rates and some policymakers expressed concern that "over time the effects of persistently low rates could depress banks' interest margins and profitability with negative effects on bank intermediation and financial stability in the longer run."

Rate-setters also agreed the current forward guidance does not pre-empt the "the Governing Council's readjustment of its monetary policy, if needed, at one of its coming meetings should the outlook evolve less favorably than expected."

The minutes also said that a number of members voiced an initial preference for extending the forward guidance through the end of the first quarter of 2020. However, they agreed to join a consensus viewing the overall policy package as finely balanced.

"Shifting the forward guidance to March 2020 instead of December 2019 would provide additional accommodation and would be more in line with the markets' pricing of a first interest rate increase, compared with survey-based expectations," the minutes said. "It was argued that a clear easing signal would be important in view of the significant downward revisions to the ECB staff projections."


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GBP/USD. April 4. Results of the day. The British pound still tends to fall

Trading 04 avr 2019 Commentaire »

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 164p - 159p - 140p - 137p - 75p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 135p (143p).

The British pound against the background of all the twists and turns with Brexit managed to rise to the upper limit of the Ichimoku cloud, but today it has fallen in price, which is more logical from a fundamental point of view. We remind you that at the moment the British Parliament has not decided on the option of leaving the EU, which will satisfy the majority of deputies. With a grief in half, by a margin of one vote, the deputies adopted a bill that allows Brexit to be postponed to a later date. However, the EU does not want to postpone Brexit without guarantees of accepting the agreement reached with Theresa May. Thus, the whole procedure has once again reached an impasse, and even news on this topic has not been received today, which is rare. How this entire mess will end is still incomprehensible. Only one thing is clear – the pound will be inclined to fall until some decision is made on Brexit. How the pound has not yet gone to conquer new lows is unclear. From a technical point of view, the pair has now dropped to the critical line. In the case of overcoming this line, the trend for the pair will again change to descending. Then we will again expect a downward movement below 1.2950. Tomorrow, by the way, an important report of NonFarm Payrolls in the United States will be published, and if its value is low, then in the short term, the pound may again become more expensive. Otherwise, downward movement will follow, at least to 1.2975. Well, Theresa may can only re-negotiate with Juncker on transfers, and convince everyone that consensus is still possible in Parliament.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair is being adjusted against the "golden cross". Thus, in the event of a price rebound from the critical line, the upward movement may resume. In this case, it is recommended to trade for an increase in small lots with the target at 1.3207.

It is recommended to open sell orders if the bears manage to overcome the critical line with the target at 1.2975.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com