Dollar Loses Ground Against Major Currencies

Trading 03 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar softened against major currencies on Wednesday, reacting to some fairly encouraging data from eurozone and on rising optimism about U.S.-China trade negotiations.

Also, data from private sector payroll processor ADP and the Institute for Supply Management showed a drop in private sector job growth and service sector growth, respectively.

The dollar index dropped to a low of 96.96, and was last seen hovering around 97.10, down more than 0.2% from previous close.

Against the Euro, the greenback was down by about 0.25%, at $1,238, after having traded around $1.208 on Tuesday.

The British Pound Sterling was up 0.18% at $1.3158, rising for a third straight day.

The sterling rose on hopes there will not be a no-deal Brexit after the Prime Minister Theresa May and Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn met to discuss ways to break the deadlock.

However, Corby reportedly said after the meeting that talks were useful but inconclusive.

The U.S. dollar was stronger against another safe haven, the Japanese yen. The Japanese currency was trading at 111.49 a dollar, after hitting a high of 111.21 a dollar.

The dollar was gaining about 0.08% against the loonie, with the pair trading at 1.3348. Against the franc, the greenback was up marginally at 0.9982.

A report from payroll processor ADP showed much weaker than expected private sector job growth in the month of March. The report said private sector employment rose by 129,000 jobs in March after jumping by an upwardly revised 197,000 jobs in February.

Economists had expected employment to increase by 170,000 jobs compared to the addition of 183,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

A separate report from the Institute for Supply Management showed service sector growth in the U.S. cooled off in March after a significant acceleration in the previous month.

The ISM said its non-manufacturing index slid to 56.1 in March after jumping to 59.7 in February, although reading above 50 still indicates growth in the service sector.

Economists had expected the index to show a more modest pullback, with forecasts calling for the index to dip to 58.0.

In Eurozone economic news, retail sales grew for a second consecutive month and at a faster-than-expected pace of 0.4% (month-on-month) in February in the euro area, preliminary data from Eurostat showed.

On a year-on-year basis, retail sales rose 2.8% after a 2.2% increase in January. Economists had expected 1.5% growth.

Among other positive economic news from Europe, Spain's service sector grew at the fastest pace in over a year, Italy's services sector grew at the fastest pace in six months in March.

Meanwhile, UK service sector shrunk for the first time in over two-and-a-half years in March as domestic political uncertainty damped demand amid labor shortages, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Wednesday. The services purchasing managers' index, or PMI fell to 48.9 in March from 51.3 in February. Economists had expected a score of 51.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil Futures Settle Lower After Inventory Data

Trading 03 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures snapped a three-day winning streak on Wednesday, after data showed an unexpected jump in U.S. crude inventories.

West Texas Intermediate Crude futures for May ended down $0.12, or 0.2%, at $62.46 a barrel, after rising to a fresh five-month high of $62.98 a barrel.

On Tuesday, crude oil futures for May ended up $0.99, or 1.6%, at $62.58 a barrel.

Data released by the Energy Information Administration this morning showed that crude inventory in the U.S. rose 7.24 million barrels in the week ended March 29, against expectations of a drop of over 0.4 million barrels. In the week ended March 22, stockpiles increased by 2.8 million barrels.

The EIA also said gasoline inventories dropped by 1.78 million barrels last week, higher than what was forecast. Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles dropped by 2 million barrels.

Late on Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute released its weekly oil report that said crude inventories in the U.S. rose by 3 million barrels last week.

OPEC-led oil cuts, speculation over additional U.S. sanctions against Iran and reports about Venezuela halting operations at a key crude terminal supported oil and limited its downside.

Earlier this week, a survey from Reuters said OPEC's oil production in March 2019 fell to its lowest level since February 2015.

The combined production of all 14 OPEC members fell by 280,000 barrels per day from February, marking the lowest level of OPEC production since February four years ago, according to the survey.


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Gold Futures Settle Slightly Lower

Trading 03 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices edged down on Wednesday as investors continued to pick up riskier assets amid rising optimism about U.S.-China trade negotiations.

The dollar was weak as well, with equities gaining in strength even as data on U.S. private sector employment showed a drop in job growth and a report from the Institute for Supply Management showed service sector growth to have cooled off in March.

The dollar index declined by about 0.3% to 97.04.

Gold futures for June ended down $0.10, at $1,295.30 an ounce.

On Tuesday, gold futures for June ended up $1.20, at $1,295.40 an ounce.

Silver futures for May ended up $0.041, at $15.102 an ounce, while Copper futures for May settled at $2.9485 per pound, gaining $0.0430 for the session.

Stocks moved higher as risk appetite increased amid optimism about trade talks between U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.

Ahead of the meeting, people briefed on the trade talks told the Financial Times top U.S. and Chinese officials have resolved most of the issues standing in the way of a deal to end their long-running trade dispute.

Officials are still haggling over how to implement and enforce the agreement, however, with Myron Brilliant, executive vice-president for international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, telling reporters the last 10 percent is the "hardest part."

The Financial Times said the two sides remain apart on two key issues: the fate of existing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and the terms of an enforcement mechanism demanded by Washington to ensure that China abides by the deal.

Meanwhile, on the economic front, a report from payroll processor ADP showed much weaker than expected private sector job growth in the month of March. The report said private sector employment rose by 129,000 jobs in March after jumping by an upwardly revised 197,000 jobs in February.

Economists had expected employment to increase by 170,000 jobs compared to the addition of 183,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

A separate report from the Institute for Supply Management showed service sector growth in the U.S. cooled off in March after a significant acceleration in the previous month.

The ISM said its non-manufacturing index slid to 56.1 in March after jumping to 59.7 in February, although reading above 50 still indicates growth in the service sector.

Economists had expected the index to show a more modest pullback, with forecasts calling for the index to dip to 58.0.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Treasuries Pull Back Amid Reports Of Progress In U.S.-China Trade Talks

Trading 03 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Following the modest rebound in the previous session, treasuries moved back to the downside during the trading day on Wednesday.

Bond prices moved lower early in the session and remained in negative territory throughout the day. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, rose by 3.6 basis points to 2.517 percent.

The pullback by treasuries came amid optimism about the latest round of trade talks between U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.

Ahead of the meetings, people briefed on the trade talks told the Financial Times top U.S. and Chinese officials have resolved most of the issues standing in the way of a deal to end their long-running trade dispute.

Officials are still haggling over how to implement and enforce the agreement, however, with Myron Brilliant, executive vice-president for international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, telling reporters the last 10 percent is the "hardest part."

The Financial Times said the two sides remain apart on two key issues: the fate of existing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and the terms of an enforcement mechanism demanded by Washington to ensure that China abides by the deal.

Meanwhile, traders largely shrugged off a report from payroll processor ADP showing much weaker than expected private sector job growth in the month of March.

ADP said private sector employment rose by 129,000 jobs in March after jumping by an upwardly revised 197,000 jobs in February.

Economists had expected employment to increase by 170,000 jobs compared to the addition of 183,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

"The job market is weakening, with employment gains slowing significantly across most industries and company sizes," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics.

"Businesses are hiring cautiously as the economy is struggling with fading fiscal stimulus, the trade uncertainty, and the lagged impact of Fed tightening," he added. "If employment growth weakens much further, unemployment will begin to rise."

On Friday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release its more closely watched monthly employment report, which includes both public and private sector jobs,

Employment is expected to jump by 180,000 jobs in March after inching up by just 20,000 jobs in February, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.8 percent.

A separate report from the Institute for Supply Management showed service sector growth in the U.S. cooled off in March after a significant acceleration in the previous month.

The ISM said its non-manufacturing index slid to 56.1 in March after jumping to 59.7 in February, although reading above 50 still indicates growth in the service sector.

Economists had expected the index to show a more modest pullback, with forecasts calling for the index to dip to 58.0.

A report on weekly jobless claims may attract some attention on Thursday, although traders may be reluctant to make significant moves ahead of the release of the more closely watched monthly jobs report on Friday.


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European Markets Extend Recent Gain On Trade Talks Hopes

Trading 03 avr 2019 Commentaire »

European markets ended higher on Wednesday, extending recent gains, as growing optimism about progress in U.S.-China trade talks outweighed some disappointing economic data out of U.S. and Europe.

Investors were also tracking news on Brexit and news from corporates for direction.

The pan European Stoxx 600 ended up 1.01%. Among the major indices in Europe, Germany's DAX climbed up 1.7%. France's CAC 40 advanced 0.84% and the U.K.'s FTSE closed up 0.37%, while Switzerland's SMI gained 0.35%.

Among other markets, Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and Turkey closed with sharp to moderate gains.

Russia edged up marginally and Denmark closed weak.

Once again, shares from resources and automobile sectors turned in a fine performance.

Shares of ProSiebenSat, a media company from Germany, ended stronger by about 6% amid speculation over a merger with Mediaset, the Italian broadcaster.

Infienon, Covestro, BASF, Linde, Deutsche Post, Continental, Thyssenkrupp, Fresenius, HeidelbergCement, Lufthansa, Bayer, Allianz, BMW, Volkswagen and Siemens were the other major gainers in the German market.

French stock STMicroElectronics surged up 5.7%. Sodexo, Saint Gobain, ArcelorMittal, Valeo, Safran, Vivendi, Schneider Electric, Credit Agricole, AXA, Orange, Vinci and Veolia Environment also rose sharply.

Taylor Wimpey, Royal Mail, Dixons Carphone, IAG, Persimmon, Paddy Power, Kingfisher, Ferguson, Fresnillo, Hargreaves Lansdown and CRH were among the notable gainers in the U.K. market.

In economic news from Eurozone, retail sales grew for a second consecutive month and at a faster-than-expected pace of 0.4% (month-on-month) in February in the euro area, preliminary data from Eurostat showed.

On a year-on-year basis, retail sales rose 2.8% after a 2.2% increase in January. Economists had expected 1.5% growth.

Among other positive economic news from Europe, Spain's service sector grew at the fastest pace in over a year, Italy's services sector grew at the fastest pace in six months in March.

Meanwhile, UK service sector shrunk for the first time in over two-and-a-half years in March as domestic political uncertainty damped demand amid labor shortages, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Wednesday. The services purchasing managers' index, or PMI fell to 48.9 in March from 51.3 in February. Economists had expected a score of 51.

On the trade front, people briefed on the trade talks told the Financial Times top U.S. and Chinese officials have resolved most of the issues standing in the way of a deal to end their long-running trade dispute.

Officials are still haggling over how to implement and enforce the agreement, however, with Myron Brilliant, executive vice-president for international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, telling reporters the last 10 percent is the "hardest part."

The Financial Times said the two sides remain apart on two key issues: the fate of existing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and the terms of an enforcement mechanism demanded by Washington to ensure that China abides by the deal.

On Brexit, according to reports, British Prime Minister Theresa May and Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn met this afternoon and agreed a "programme of work" to try to find a way forward to put to MPs for a vote.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

April 3, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 03 avr 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5ca4db252a980.jpg

On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

The bearish channel's upper limit managed to push price towards 1.1290 then 1.1235 before the EUR/USD pair could come again to meet the channel's upper limit around 1.1420.

Shortly after, the recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated on March 7th.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the Highlighted-Zone) which failed to provide adequate bearish pressure.

On March 18, a bullish breakout attempt was executed above 1.1327 (the upper limit of the Highlighted-zone). This enhanced further bullish movement towards 1.1450 demonstrating a false bullish breakout above the upper limit of the depicted movement channel.

On the other hand, On March 22, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated around 1.1380 leading to the current bearish decline towards 1.1220 then 1.1220.

The short term outlook for EURUSD pair remains bearish towards 1.1170 and 1.1120.

Bearish persistence below 1.1235 (Fibonacci 78.6%) is mandatory to pursue towards the next mentioned bearish targets.

Otherwise, a bullish breakout above 1.1235 would initiate another bullish pullback towards 1.1280-1.1320 where a better SELL entry can be offered.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for another bullish pullback towards 1.1280-1.1320 for a low-risk SELL entry.

TP levels to be located around 1.1200, 1.1170 and 1.1120. SL to be located above 1.1350.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 3, 2019

Trading 03 avr 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5ca4d671e153f.png

GBP/JPY has broken back above resistance at 145.50 indicating more upside pressure towards 148.50 and 151.50 as the target.

Support is now seen at 145.90 with key support at 144.90 which should be able to protect the downside for the next move higher towards 148.50.

Only an unexpected break below support at 144.90 will confuse the short term picture.

R3: 148.50

R2: 148.10

R1: 147.50

Pivot: 147.18

S1: 146.16

S2: 145.52

S3: 144.90

Trading recommendation:

We bought GBP at 146.51 and we will move our stop higher to 144.80.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 3, 2019

Trading 03 avr 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5ca4d562836c3.png

EUR/JPY has spiked to just above the 125.27 target. A break below support at 124.52 is now needed to confirm that the corrective rally from 123.65 is complete and renewed downside pressure should be expected towards 123.65 and 122.07 and ideally closer to 120.95 before a low should be expected and a turn higher should be expected.

Only a direct break above 126.17 will shift the focus back towards the upside and a rally to 127.50 and above.

R3: 126.17

R2: 125.70

R1: 125.27

Pivot: 124.95

S1: 124.75

S2: 124.56

S3: 124.12

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 124.25 with our stop placed at 126.20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*Poland CB Holds Key Rate Unchanged At 1.50% As Expected

Trading 03 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Poland CB Holds Key Rate Unchanged At 1.50% As Expected


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Jump By 7.2 Million Barrels In Week Ended 3/29

Trading 03 avr 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Jump By 7.2 Million Barrels In Week Ended 3/29


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com