*IMF's Lagarde: Expects Some Pickup In Growth In H2 2019 And Into 2020

Trading 02 avr 2019 Commentaire »

IMF's Lagarde: Expects Some Pickup In Growth In H2 2019 And Into 2020


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*IMF's Lagarde: We Don't See Recession In Near Term

Trading 02 avr 2019 Commentaire »

IMF's Lagarde: We Don't See Recession In Near Term


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*IMF's Lagarde: Expects 70% Of Global Economy To Experience Slowdown This Year

Trading 02 avr 2019 Commentaire »

IMF's Lagarde: Expects 70% Of Global Economy To Experience Slowdown This Year


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AUD/USD: traders didn’t believe RBA

Trading 02 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The controversial rhetoric of the Reserve Bank of Australia disappointed AUD/USD traders, but the pair bears failed to break through the key support level of 0.7000. On the eve of the April meeting of the RBA, the market was overwhelmed by "dovish" expectations, so the relative restraint (and even a certain optimism) of the regulator did not allow sellers to launch a large-scale southern offensive.

The Australian Central Bank did not repeat the rhetoric of its "neighbors" from the RBNZ, whose members actually announced a reduction in the interest rate this year. Philip Lowe kept his waiting position, trying to dispel the fears of many traders. Moreover, the head of the RBA even voiced optimistic estimates regarding the dynamics of the labor market. According to him, the Central Bank expects a further decline in unemployment and rising wages, and as a result – inflation. While Lowe acknowledged that growth would be more gradual, he remained optimistic.

In addition, the head of the Australian regulator did not dramatize the situation with respect to the latest releases. Let me remind you that Australia's GDP in the last quarter of last year grew by only 2.3% in annual terms after the previous growth of 2.7% in the third quarter. RBA economists had expected this figure at 3.4%, so in January they revised their forecast for the current year. Compared to the previous three months, the country's economy grew by 0.2% after an increase of 0.3% in the third quarter of 2018. The PMI industrial activity index in Australian industry also slowed down quite noticeably, falling to a one-and-a-half year low of 52 points.

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However, the Australian Central Bank, despite such trends, "kept cool." According to Lowe, the global financial environment is still favorable, as are the prospects for the global economy. Naturally, Low recognized that the dynamics of global economic growth slowed against the background of increased risks (here he lamented the deterioration of the investment climate), but in his opinion, the situation is far from critical.

It is likely that the head of the RBA was inspired by the latest news from the "front" of the US-China talks, which will continue this week in Washington. On the eve of this event, China took several friendly steps that indicate Beijing's intention to still find a common denominator with the States. First, the Chinese did not resume the action of retaliatory sanctions (although the "pause" expired in April), and secondly, at the legislative level, the synthetic substance fentanyl was completely banned — which the Americans had insisted on for so long. Such actions by the Celestial Empire again increased the likelihood of a trade transaction, and this fact affected the general mood of the markets. The Australian dollar reacts most acutely to such events, so yesterday the pair AUD/USD tested the 71st figure again, but the results of the April meeting of the RBA unfolded the price 180 degrees.

What is the reason for the southern trend "Aussie", against the background of a relatively quiet meeting of the Australian Central Bank in April? In my opinion, the market is still confident that the regulator will be forced to lower the interest rate in the second half of the year. Following yesterday's meeting, some experts even set an approximate date for such a move – September of this year.

After all, behind the screen of calm and balanced assessments lies the main conclusion: economic growth and inflation still do not justify the forecasts of the RBA. And given the slowdown in the Chinese economy, the key macro indicators of the European Union and even the United States, we cannot expect a sharp economic breakthrough in Australia. Of course, the Australian Reserve Bank was much more "courteous" with the market than the New Zealand regulator – but the essence of the main message does not change. The issue of easing the monetary policy of the RBA has not been removed from the agenda, and this fact will put background pressure on the Australian dollar.

On the other hand, the lack of clear intentions and the exponentially wait-and-see position of the Central Bank of Australia keeps the pair AUD/USD afloat, that is, above the key support level of 0.7000. As a result, "Aussie" was stuck in a flat, the range of which narrowed down to price limits of 0.7030-0.7150. It is possible to break through this blockade only with the help of external fundamental factors, primarily due to the results of the US-China talks. If Beijing and Washington finally reach the final agreement, the pair AUD/USD will be fixed above the upper limit of the above price range. Otherwise, "Aussie" will designate for itself new landmarks within 68-69 figures.

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In terms of technology, the pair is also in the flat. This is indicated by the location of the price on the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator (D1 timeframe), as well as the presence of the pair in the Kumo cloud of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator. The support and resistance levels are the lower and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which correspond to 0.7030 and 0.7150 marks.

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 2, 2019

Trading 02 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin jumped above $4,500 recently. Moreover, the price managed to touch and reject off the milestone price area of $5,000 as well with a single hourly candle. Bitcoin climbed above a 5-month high with such impulsiveness that came as a surprise for Bitcoin bulls. Currently, traders are taking profits.

The price is currently holding inside a trading range between $4,500 to $5,000. Today's gain is assumed as triggering an order worth $100 million spread across US-based exchanges. The bullish bias was quite strong earlier but such impulsiveness was not quite expected even by regular market participants. Currently the price formed Bearish Continuous Divergence which is expected to lead to further corrective and volatile price action in the coming days before the price jumps higher again with a target towards $5,000 or even higher. The price is also being held by the dynamic levels as support which will help the price to rebound again if certain pullbacks occur along the way. As the price remains above $4,500, the most popular cryptocurrency is likely to reinforce impulsive upward momentum in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 4,000, 4,250, 4,500

RESISTANCE: 5,000, 5,150, 5,300

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE and IMPULSIVE

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Bitcoin analysis for April 02, 2019

Trading 02 avr 2019 Commentaire »

BTC has spiked higher as we expected. BTC did tested the price of $5.061. We exited all our positions and we are neutral now.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found that after the break of the consolidation range BTC did spike higher. Anyway, we found on the H4 time-frame 2 ultra big climatic bars (overextension), which is sign that buying at this stage looks extremely risky. ADX is reading is at 58, which is sign that momentum and trend are still strong. Potential downward correction towards $4.500 is possible. Strong resistance levels are seen at $5.064 and $5.770.

Trading recommendation: We exited our long position that we held from $4.070 and took profit at $4.700 with the profit of 15%. Now, we are neutral since the climatic action on the top and we are waiting for more market information's before new position.

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Analysis of Gold for April 02, 2019

Trading 02 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Gold has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of $1.284.70. We are still expecting downside.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found that price rejected of the Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of $1.296.00 and it rejected from the 20-exponential moving average (yellow line). The ADX reading above 30 level is suggesting us that trend is still strong. The resistance levels are seen at the price of $1.296.00 and $1.301.00. Key short-term support is seen at the price of $1.280.60.

Trading recommendation: Watching for selling opportunities with the target at $1.280.60.

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USD/JPY analysis for April 02, 2019

Trading 02 avr 2019 Commentaire »

USD/JPY has been trading upwards as we expected. The price tested the level of 111.46. We are still expecting more upside on this currency pair.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found that the trend is still strong and the ADX reading at 35 is sign of the healthy trend. In the background inverted head and shoulders did set the upside tone and this is another confirmation of the bullish condition. The USD/JPY is trading in the consolidation phase at the moment and in past 20 hours we are seeing bullish flag in creation, which is another sign that the trend is stable. Flags are integral part of the consolidation in the trend condition. Support levels are seen at 111.20 and 110.85. Resistance levels are seen at 111.70 and 111.90.

Trading recommendation: We are still long USD/JPY from 110.95 with the targets at 111.70 and 111.90. We secured today position on the breakeven so it is risk free position now.

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EUR / USD plan for the American session on April 1. Eurozone producer prices showed no growth

Trading 02 avr 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Weak data on producer prices in the eurozone did not allow the euro to even return to the resistance level of 1.1212. For the second half of the day, the target of the bulls remains to this range and a breakthrough will lead to the formation of a new upward correction with testing of the upper boundary of the past side channel in the area of 1.1244, where I recommend taking profits. With the scenario of further reduction of the euro with the trend, it is best to look closely at long positions in EUR/USD after updating the lows of 1.1176 and 1.1149.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears made an attempt to update at least this month but the downward trend did not receive support even against the background of weak data for the eurozone. However, as long as trading is conducted below the resistance of 1.1212, the pressure on the euro will continue and the formation of a false breakdown at this level will be a good signal for opening short positions. The main purpose of the bears are the lows near 1.1176 and 1.1149, where I recommend taking profits. With the scenario of returning EUR/USD back to the side channel of 1.1212-1.1244, it is best to return to short positions from its upper limit or sell for a rebound from a maximum of 1.1269.

More in the video forecast for April 2

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility is very low, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

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Brent will not scare the dollar

Trading 02 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Due to the growth of business activity in the USA and China, oil managed to close the quarter with the best result in a decade. Futures quotes for Brent and WTI climbed to the area of 5-month highs amid the rise of the March index of supply managers of the Middle Kingdom to the semi-annual peak and the growth of its American counterpart from 54.2 to 55.3. The Chinese economy is gradually recovering and the slowdown of GDP in United States may not be as serious as previously assumed. If so, then demand in black gold will play on the side of the "bulls". Given some weakness of the American production, this circumstance allows them to drive quotes to the north.

According to Bloomberg experts, oil production by 14 OPEC countries fell by 295 thousand b/d to 30.385 million b/d in March. The indicator is ready to fall for the fourth month in a row, primarily due to the actions of Saudi Arabia. Riyadh is seriously determined to stabilize the market and for this, it reduces production to a 4-year minimum. Along with Washington's willingness to increase economic sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, this circumstance turns on the green light in front of the Brent and WTI bulls. Hedge funds do not get tired of increasing speculative long positions in both classes as prices are rising.

Dynamics of speculative positions on Brent and WTI

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I have repeatedly noted that in the supply area, there is a process of rope pulling between OPEC and American producers. Therefore, black gold often responds to changes in demand. In this regard, the increased likelihood of the termination of the US-Chinese trade war and the economic recovery of the Middle Kingdom is positive news for the asset being analyzed.

Moreover, the slowdown in domestic demand in the United States under the influence of the traditionally bad weather for the first quarter, as well as the shutdown of the US government and other factors affect the production. The number of rigs from Baker Hughes from mid-November decreased by 72 to 816 and the report of the US Energy Information Administration recorded the first decline in production from May 2018 by 90 thousand b/d to 11.9 million b/d. I do not think that this is a turning point of the uptrend. The current oil market conditions are extremely favorable for companies from the States. By taking advantage of high prices, they are able to double the volume of hedging operations. This will allow extracting oil in the future even in the face of a fall in its value.

Black gold goes up against the strong US dollar. The bulls on the USD index are not scared of either the increase in the likelihood of a reduction in the federal funds rate in 2019 or the verbal intervention of the White House, which calls on the Fed to lower the rate from 2.5% to 2%. In my opinion, an infinitely long upward trend in the US currency cannot continue in the background of the completion of the economic cycle.

Technically, a breakthrough of the resistance at $ 68.6 per barrel creates prerequisites for the continuation of the Brent rally in the direction of $ 72.9 (61.8% of the CD wave) as part of the transformation of the Shark pattern at 5-0.

Brent daily chart

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