Dollar Recovers After Initial Weakness Despite Disappointing Data

Trading 26 mar 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar edged up marginally, rebounding from lower levels despite disappointing data on consumer confidence and building permits.

The dollar index advanced to 96.73, gaining about 0.14%, rising from a low of 96.45.

According to a report from the Conference Board, U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly decreased in the month of March.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped to 124.1 in March after jumping to 131.4 in February. Economists had expected the index to rise to 133.0.

The unexpected decrease by the headline index came as the present situation index tumbled to 160.6 in March from 172.8 in February.

The percentage of consumers calling business conditions "good" slumped to 33.4% from 40.6%, while those saying business conditions are "bad" edged up to 13.6% from 11.1%.

The Conference Board noted consumers' optimism about the short-term future also moderated in March, with the expectations index sliding to 99.8 from 103.8 last month.

"Confidence has been somewhat volatile over the past few months, as consumers have had to weather volatility in the financial markets, a partial government shutdown and a very weak February jobs report," said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board.

"Despite these dynamics, consumers remain confident that the economy will continue expanding in the near term," she added. "However, the overall trend in confidence has been softening since last summer, pointing to a moderation in economic growth."

Earlier in the day, data released by the Commerce Department showed housing starts plunged by 8.7% to an annual rate of 1.162 million in February after surging up by 11.7% to a revised rate of 1.273 million in January.

Economists had expected housing starts to dip to a rate of 1.213 million from the 1.230 million originally reported for the previous month.

Building permits fell by 1.6% percent to an annual rate of 1.296 million in February after dipping by 0.7% to a revised rate of 1.1317 million in January.

Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, had been expected to drop to 1.300 million from the 1.345 million originally reported for the previous month.

The dollar was weak against the British Pound, though just marginally, at 1.3210 a sterling. The focus was on Brexit debates and votes, scheduled for Wednesday.

On Monday, members of parliament temporarily seized control of the Brexit process from the British Prime Minister Theresa May in a move that gives them control of Parliament's agenda on Wednesday.

It is feared that an a disorderly exit from the EU by the U.K. may well spell trouble for markets across the globe.

Against the Euro, the dollar was gaining in strength, edging up to $1.1278, from $1.1315 on Monday.

Survey results from GfK showed Germany's consumer confidence is set to slightly weaken in April, driven by some easing in households' income expectations and the propensity to buy.

The forward-looking consumer confidence index fell to 10.4 from a revised 10.7 in March, the Nuremberg-based market research group said.

Economists had expected the reading to remain unchanged at March's original 10.8.

The economic expectations index of the survey rose seven points to reach 11.2 in March. That was the first increase after five consecutive months of decline.

The income expectations index fell 4.1 points to reach 55.9 in March and the propensity to buy index decreased 3.4 points to 50.2, which was the lowest reading in over two years.

The dollar was up more than 0.5% against the Japanese yen with the latter dropping to around 110.50 against the former.

The dollar was gaining about 0.24% against Swiss franc, while losing 0.1% and 0.28% against the loonie and Aussie, respectively.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil Futures End Sharply Higher Ahead Of Inventory Data

Trading 26 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures ended sharply higher on Tuesday, ahead of weekly oil inventory data.

Even as demand growth worries persisted amid continued concerns about global economic slowdown, oil prices advanced today amid hopes crude oil stockpiles may have dropped in the week ended March 22nd.

The American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to release its weekly oil report later in the day. The official data from Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 AM ET Wednesday.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for May ended up $1.12, or 1.9%, at $59.94 a barrel.

On Monday, crude oil futures for May ended down $0.22, or 0.4%, at $58.82 a barrel, after suffering a loss of 1.6% last Friday.

The ongoing supply cuts led by OPEC and non-affiliated allies like Russia to the tune of 1.2 million barrels per day this year may well tighten supply in the market and push up prices going forward.

Additionally, the U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela also aided oil's uptick.

Meanwhile, fears over a possible U.S. recession are fading after U.S. 10-year Treasury yields recovered a bit from 2017 lows hit in the previous session.

On Monday, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans put the chances of a recession at no more than 25%.

Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen also believes the economy is not headed toward a recession. Speaking at a Credit Suisse forum on Asian investment in Hong Kong on Monday, Yellen said that the slowdown in U.S. growth is something that was long expected and it is unlikely to drop to a level that will cause a recession.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Treasuries Recover From Initial Weakness To Close Roughly Flat

Trading 26 mar 2019 Commentaire »

After showing an initial move to the downside, treasuries regained ground over the course of the trading session on Tuesday.

Bond prices climbed well off their worst levels of the day but closing roughly flat. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, edged down by less than a basis point to 2.414 percent after reaching a high of 2.448 percent.

The initial weakness among treasuries came as traders cashed in on the strong upward move shown by bonds over the past few sessions.

Selling pressure waned over the course of the morning, however, as traders digested another batch of disappointing U.S. economic data.

Early in the day, the Commerce Department released a report showing a sharp pullback in new residential construction in the month of February.

The report said housing starts plunged by 8.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.162 million in February after surging up by 11.7 percent to a revised rate of 1.273 million in January.

Economists had expected housing starts to dip to a rate of 1.213 million from the 1.230 million originally reported for the previous month.

The Commerce Department said building permits also fell by 1.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.296 million in February after dipping by 0.7 percent to a revised rate of 1.1317 million in January.

Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, had been expected to drop to 1.300 million from the 1.345 million originally reported for the previous month.

A separate report from the Conference Board showed an unexpected decrease in consumer confidence in the month of March.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped to 124.1 in March after jumping to 131.4 in February. Economists had expected the index to rise to 133.0.

"Confidence has been somewhat volatile over the past few months, as consumers have had to weather volatility in the financial markets, a partial government shutdown and a very weak February jobs report," said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board.

"Despite these dynamics, consumers remain confident that the economy will continue expanding in the near term," she added. "However, the overall trend in confidence has been softening since last summer, pointing to a moderation in economic growth."

Treasuries continued to regain ground following the release of the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $40 billion worth of two-year notes, which attracted slightly below average demand.

The two-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.261 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.60, while the ten previous two-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.67.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

Looking ahead, the Treasury is due to sell $41 billion worth of five-year notes on Wednesday and $32 billion worth of seven-year notes on Thursday.

Trading on Wednesday may also be impacted by reaction to the Commerce Department's report on the U.S. trade deficit in January.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Futures Settle Lower

Trading 26 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices drifted lower on Tuesday as traders switched over to riskier assets after fears about U.S. recession faded following bond yields coming off 15-month lows.

Global equities moved higher and the U.S. dollar held steady as well, rendering the yellow metal weak almost right through the session.

Gold futures for April ended down $7.60, or 0.6%, at $1,315.00 an ounce.

On Monday, gold futures for April ended up $10.30, or 0.8%, at $1,322.60 an ounce, the highest settlement since February 26, 2019.

Silver futures for May ended down $0.138, at $15.429 an ounce, while copper futures for May ended at $2.8540 per pound, gaining $0.0025 for the session.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields recovered from 2017 lows hit in the previous session, helping ease fears over a possible U.S. recession.

On Monday, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said chances of recession were no more than 25%.

Speaking at a Credit Suisse forum on Asian investment, former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen said she does not foresee a recession based on recent moves in the bond market. She said the markets may be indicating the need for a rate cut.

When asked about the yield curve inverting, Yellen said, "I don't see it as a signal of recession," and added that yield curves tend to be more flat than they were in the past, so an inversion may not carry the same significance it once did.

"Yes, growth is slowing, but I don't see it slowing to a level that will cause a recession," she said. "In fact, it might signal that the Fed would at some point need to cut rates."

Meanwhile, in economic news today, a report from the Commerce Department showed housing starts plunged by 8.7% to an annual rate of 1.162 million in February after surging up by 11.7% to a revised rate of 1.273 million in January.

Economists had expected housing starts to dip to a rate of 1.213 million from the 1.230 million originally reported for the previous month.

The Commerce Department said building permits also fell by 1.6% to an annual rate of 1.296 million in February after dipping by 0.7% to a revised rate of 1.1317 million in January.

A separate report from the Conference Board showed an unexpected decrease in consumer confidence in the month of March.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped to 124.1 in March after jumping to 131.4 in February. Economists had expected the index to rise to 133.0.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Two-Year Note Auction Attracts Slightly Below Average Demand

Trading 26 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Kicking off this week's series of long-term securities auctions, the Treasury Department sold $40 billion worth of two-year notes on Tuesday, attracting slightly below average demand.

The two-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.261 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.60.

Last month, the Treasury also sold $40 billion worth of two-year notes, drawing a high yield of 2.503 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.50.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous two-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.67.

Looking ahead, the Treasury is due to sell $41 billion worth of five-year notes on Wednesday and $32 billion worth of seven-year notes on Thursday.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Deteriorates In March

Trading 26 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Reflecting a deterioration in consumers' assessment of current conditions, the Conference Board released a report on Tuesday showing an unexpected decrease in U.S. consumer confidence in the month of March.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped to 124.1 in March after jumping to 131.4 in February. Economists had expected the index to rise to 133.0.

"Confidence has been somewhat volatile over the past few months, as consumers have had to weather volatility in the financial markets, a partial government shutdown and a very weak February jobs report," said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board.

"Despite these dynamics, consumers remain confident that the economy will continue expanding in the near term," she added. "However, the overall trend in confidence has been softening since last summer, pointing to a moderation in economic growth."

The unexpected decrease by the headline index came as the present situation index tumbled to 160.6 in March from 172.8 in February.

The percentage of consumers calling business conditions "good" slumped to 33.4 percent from 40.6 percent, while those saying business conditions are "bad" edged up to 13.6 percent from 11.1 percent.

Consumers' assessment of the labor market was also less upbeat, as those saying jobs are "plentiful" dipped to 42.0 percent from 45.7 percent and those claiming jobs are "hard to get" crept up to 13.7 percent from 11.7 percent.

The Conference Board noted consumers' optimism about the short-term future also moderated in March, with the expectations index sliding to 99.8 from 103.8 last month.

The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months dropped to 17.7 percent from 19.6 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen remained relatively flat at 9.3 percent.

Consumers' outlook for the labor market was also less favorable, with the proportion expecting more jobs falling to 16.4 percent from 19.0 percent and those anticipating fewer jobs ticking up to 13.4 percent from 12.3 percent.

On Friday, the University of Michigan is scheduled to release its revised reading on consumer sentiment in the month of March.

The consumer sentiment index is expected to be unrevised from the preliminary reading of 97.8, which was up from 93.8 in the previous month.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Finland Jobless Rate Falls In February

Trading 26 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Finland's unemployment rate fell in February from last year, data from Statistics Finland showed on Tuesday.

The jobless rate for the 15-74 age group fell to 7.4 percent from 8.6 percent in February 2018.

The number of unemployed persons shrunk by 33,000 persons year-on-year to 200,000. Employment grew by 34,000 persons.

The youth jobless rate, which applied to the 15 to 24 age group, was 19.7 percent, which was 1.5 percentage points lower than a year ago.

The seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell to 6.5 percent in February from 6.6 percent in January. A year ago, the rate was 8 percent.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

March 25, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical outlook and trade recommendations.

Trading 26 mar 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5c9a44ac4b2aa.jpg

On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend line managed to push price towards 1.3200 before the GBP/USD pair came to meet the uptrend again around 1.2775 on February 14.

Another bullish wave was demonstrated towards 1.3350 before the bearish pullback brought the pair towards the uptrend again on March 11.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair slightly below the trend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Bullish persistence above 1.3060 allowed the GBPUSD pair to pursue the bullish momentum towards 1.3130, 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the recent bearish pullback was initiated.

Bullish persistence above 1.3250 was needed for confirmation of a bullish Flag pattern. However, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated below 1.3250.

Hence, the short term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.3120 - 1.3100 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any immediate bullish support.

Bearish breakout below 1.3100 allowed quick bearish decline towards 1.3000 where the current bullish momentum that brought the pair back above 1.3200 was initiated (False bearish breakout).

Today, The price level around 1.3250 stands as an Intraday resistance/supply level that needs to be broken to the upside for confirmation of the depicted flag pattern bullish breakout.

On the other hand, bearish rejection around 1.3250 may initiate bearish decline towards 1.3180 then 1.3100 thus remainin within the current consoliation range.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders should wait for a bullish breakout above (1.3250) on H1 chart. Bullish projection levels to be located around 1.3320 then 1.3400.

SL to be placed above 1.3180.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for March 26, 2019

Trading 26 mar 2019 Commentaire »

BTC has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of $3.847 and reached our both downward targets.

analytics5c9a4426abb20.png

According to the h1 time – frame, we found the excess (pin bar, aggressive buyers) after the sell off in the background, which is sign that we got some swap from selling to buying power. Most recently, there is the breakout of the intraday bullish flag pattern, which is sign that upward movement may resume. Support levels are seen at $3.911, $3.936 and $3.975. Key support is set at the price of $3.847.

Trading recommendation: We reached both yesterday's downward targets and we started to buy BTC from $3.900 with targets at $3.936 and $3.975. Protective stop is placed at $3.845.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. March 26. Results of the day. Three more resignations in the British Parliament. Total chaos

Trading 26 mar 2019 Commentaire »

4-hour timeframe

aWyEsVY9157gcd7Axbl4Lw6e_3CYQRm8mvE72bz-

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 70p - 126p - 223p - 143p - 86p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 130p (135p).

The British pound sterling is trading in different directions during the second trading day of the week, without a definite trend, and moreover inside the Ichimoku cloud. Total confusion is present not only in the British Parliament, but also on the GBP/USD pair. Yesterday, it became known that three more high-ranking officials had resigned as part of a protest against the policy of Theresa May. Recall that earlier, several ministers had already submitted their resignation. The Brexit process itself is in complete impasse. Hope for a favorable outcome rests not with Theresa May, but with the parliament, which tomorrow will hold a series of votes on all sorts of options for leaving the country from the EU, including the rejection of Brexit. The most interesting thing that may well be a situation where none of the options will not be approved by the majority. It is difficult to say whether there were similar cases in world history. What will happen in this case is even harder to say than to assume whether Brexit will take place now, almost three years after the referendum, after almost three years of negotiations with the EU. Technical factors are now frankly secondary. Firstly, because any news could potentially send a pound in one direction or another for 100-200 points, despite the technical picture, and secondly, because of the nature of the pair's movement, the technique now looks not very "beautiful." The pound is still frankly lucky that, given the entire fundamental background, it still does not trade below 1.2500.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair is now in a difficult situation with the absence of any tendency substantiated by anything. Perhaps tomorrow will shed light on at least the near future of Britain and the fate of Brexit, which, in turn, will allow the pair to breathe more freely.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Redline and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com