Oil Futures Settle Sharply Lower On Growth Concerns

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices drifted lower on Friday as weak economic data raised worries about global growth and triggered concerns about a likely drop in fuel demand.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for May ended down $0.94, or 1.6%, at $59.04 a barrel.

On Thursday, crude oil futures for May ended down $0.25, or 0.4%, at $59.98 a barrel.

For the week, crude oil futures gained about 0.4%.

Data released today showed contraction in eurozone service sector activity. France's service sector growth slowed to the lowest level in 2 months and Germany's private sector growth dropped to the slowest pace in six years.

Weak U.S. factory data, the recent comments about interest rate outlook and the U.S. economy by the Federal Reserve, Brexit uncertainty and conflicting reports about U.S.-China trade negotiaitons all weighed on crude oil prices.

Although the OPEC-led output cuts, Saudi Arabia's decision to extend production cut and the U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela keep supporting oil prices at times, worries about global economic slowdown seem to put a brake on oil prices at regular intervals.

On the U.S.-China trade front, worries continue to linger after U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Wednesday that he would likely keep tariffs on Chinese goods for a "substantial period" until he is sure Beijing is complying with any trade agreement.

According to reports, the U.S. and China are set to resume talks next week following conflicting reports over the progress of negotiations in recent days.


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Treasuries Pull Back Off Best Levels But Close Firmly Positive

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

After ending the previous session roughly flat, treasuries showed a significant move to the upside during trading on Friday.

Bond prices pulled back off their best levels in afternoon trading but remained firmly in positive territory. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, slumped by 8.2 basis points to 2.455 percent.

With the notable decrease on the day, the ten-year yield ended the session at its lowest closing level in well over a year.

The strong upward move by treasuries came amid a sell-off on Wall Street, with traders cashing in on recent gains by stocks after yesterday's strong upward move.

Lingering uncertainty about trade talks between the U.S. and China is also weighing on stocks ahead of another round of high-level negotiations next week.

Traders also continued to digest the Federal Reserve's dovish monetary policy announcement earlier in the week.

The Fed's decision to move away from plans to continue raising interest rates this year has been described by some analysts as an effort to keep the stock markets afloat amid an expected contraction in first quarter earnings.

The central bank has also been accused of bending to pressure from President Donald Trump, who has claimed U.S. economic growth would be even stronger if the Fed had not raised rates last year.

Chairman Jerome Powell has continually touted the Fed's independence, however, suggesting the dovish tone could also reflect legitimate concerns about the economic outlook.

Adding to the concerns about the outlook for the economy, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note fell below the yield on the three-month bond, which is seen by many as a reliable harbinger of a recession.

Meanwhile, traders largely shrugged off a report from the National Association of Realtors showing a substantial rebound in existing home sales in the month of February.

NAR said existing home sales soared by 11.8 percent to an annual rate of 5.51 million in February after slumping by 1.4 percent to a revised rate of 4.93 million in January.

Economists had expected existing home sales to surge up by 3.2 percent to a rate of 5.10 million from the 4.94 million originally reported for the previous month.

Next week's trading may be impacted by reaction to the latest batch of U.S. economic data, including reports on housing starts, consumer confidence, pending home sales, personal income and spending and new home sales.

Bond traders are also likely to keep an eye on the results of the Treasury Department's auctions of two-year, five-year, and seven-year notes.


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Gold Futures Settle At 3-week High As Stocks Tumble On Growth Worries

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Gold futures settled at a 3-week high on Friday, as traders picked up the safe haven commodity, after disappointing economic data from Europe weighed on risk appetite and knocked the wind out of equities.

Continued uncertainty about Brexit and U.S.-China trade talks hurt as well.

Gold prices edged higher even as the dollar stayed strong against most major currencies. The dollar index rose to 96.81 and was last seen around 96.65, up by about 0.7% from previous close.

Gold futures for April ended up $5.00, or 0.4%, at $1,312.30 an ounce, the highest settlement since February 28.

On Thursday, gold futures for May ended at $1,307.30 an ounce, gaining $5.60, or 0.4%. For the week, gold futures gained 0.7%

Silver futures for May ended down $0.030, at $15.407 an ounce, while Copper futures for May ended at $2.8424 per pound, gaining $0.0635 for the session.

Markets in Asia, Europe and the U.S. tumbled on disappointing economic data and U.S.-China trade uncertainty.

Ahead of another round of high-level talks in Beijing next week, there are still divisions over tariffs.

The U.S. President Donald Trump said earlier this week that his administration would leave tariffs on Chinese products in place even if the two sides reach an agreement.

In stark contrast, China wants an immediate end to all tariffs.

On the Brexit front, EU leaders have agreed on a plan to delay the Article 50 process for another two weeks until April 12.

Prime Minister Theresa May will have an extra two months until May 22 if she builds support for pushing her withdrawal deal through Parliament.

In economic news from Europe, the composite PMI for the euro zone declined from 51.9 to 51.3 in March, giving little hope of recovery in the first quarter.

Germany's private sector growth in March slowed to its lowest level in six years. In France, service sector growth dropped to its slowest pace in two months.

In U.S. economic news, a report from the National Association of Realtors showed a substantial rebound in existing home sales in the month of February.

NAR said existing home sales soared by 11.8% to an annual rate of 5.51 million in February after slumping by 1.4% to a revised rate of 4.93 million in January. Economists had expected existing home sales to surge up by 3.2%.

According to data released by the Commerce Department, wholesale inventories in the U.S. increased by much more than anticipated in the month of January, rising 1.2%, after jumping by 1.1% in December. Economists had expected inventories to rise by 0.2%.


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March 22, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical levels and trade recommendations.

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

The bearish channel's upper limit managed to push price towards 1.1290 then 1.1235 before the EUR/USD pair could come again to meet the channel's upper limit around 1.1420.

That's why, the recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated on March 7th.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the Highlighted-Zone) which failed to provide adequate bearish pressure.

This week, a bullish breakout attempt was executed above 1.1327 (the upper limit of the current demand zone). This enhanced further bullish movement towards 1.1450 demonstrating a false bullish breakout above the upper limit of the depicted movement channel.

On the other hand, Yesterday, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated around 1.1380 leading to the current bearish decline towards 1.1290.

The short term outlook for EURUSD pair remains bearish. Hence, Quick bearish breakout below 1.1285 is mandatory to pursue towards the next bearish target around 1.1235 and 1.1180.

Trade recommendations :

Based on Yesterday's recommendations, sellers around .1385 should lower their SL to 1.1340 to secure some profits.

TP levels to be located around 1.1235 and 1.1180.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

March 22, 2019 : GBPUSD Intraday technical levels and trade recommendations.

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend line managed to push price towards 1.3200 before the GBP/USD pair came to meet the uptrend again around 1.2775 on February 14.

Another bullish wave was demonstrated towards 1.3350 before the bearish pullback brought the pair towards the uptrend again on March 11.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair slightly below the trend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Bullish persistence above 1.3060 allowed the GBPUSD pair to pursue the bullish momentum towards 1.3130, 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the recent bearish pullback was initiated.

Bullish persistence above 1.3250 ( 50% Fibonacci expansion level ) was needed for confirmation of a bullish Flag pattern. However, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated below 1.3250.

Hence, the short term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.3120 - 1.3100 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any immediate bullish support.

Bearish breakout below 1.3100 (23.6% Fibonacci level) allowed quick bearish decline towards 1.3000 where the current bullish momentum that brought the pair back above 1.3200 was initiated (False bearish breakout).

Today, Further bullish advancement is expected towards 1.3250 ( 50% Fibonacci expansion level) where bearish rejection may be anticipated.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders should wait for a valid SELL entry anywhere around (1.3250).

T/P level to be located around 1.3180 and 1.3100.

SL to be placed above 1.3320.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for March 22, 2019

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

BTC went fast lower and tested the level of $3.862 yesterday and today we got upward correction.

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According to the H1 time – frame, the analysis from yesterday is still valid and we still expect downside. The is the down break of the upward trendline in the background, which is sign that aggressive sellers did enter the market. Key support levels are seen at the price of $3.864, $3.766 and $3.633. Key resistance is still set at the price of $4.170.

Trading recommendation: We are short on BTC with the major take profit at $3.633 and protective stop at $4.060.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

German Private Sector Growth Weakest In Nearly 6 Years

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Germany's private sector grew at its slowest pace in nearly six years, led by a sharp decline in manufacturing, flash data from IHS Markit revealed on Friday.

The composite output index fell to a 69-month low of 51.5 in March from 52.8 in February. Economists had forecast a rise of 52.7.

Any reading above 50 indicates an expansion in the sector.

The flash services Purchasing Managers' Index dropped to 54.9 in March from 55.3 in February. Economists had expected the index to ease to 54.8.

The flash manufacturing PMI dropped more-than-expected to 44.7 in March from 47.6 In February. The reading was the lowest in six-and-a-half years. Economists had forecast the reading to rise 48.0.

Manufacturing output PMI also fell to a 79-month low of 45.0 in March to 47.9 in February.

A slump in new export orders led the sharp contraction in manufacturing order books. Export demand fell at the quickest pace since August 2012.

Delayed decision-making among clients due to uncertainty, as well as weaker demand in the automotive sector contributed to the fall in demand.

"The first decrease in factory employment for three years is perhaps a warning sign for the health of domestic demand, with overall job creation now running at its lowest since May 2016", Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, said.

Degree of optimism among service providers eased since February, while manufacturing sentiment sunk further into negative territory to the weakest since late-2012, the survey found.


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U.S. Wholesale Inventories Jump Much More Than Expected In January

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Wholesale inventories in the U.S. increased by much more than anticipated in the month of January, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Friday.

The report said wholesale inventories surged up by 1.2 percent in January after jumping by 1.1 percent in December. Economists had expected inventories to rise by 0.2 percent.

The bigger than expected increase in wholesale inventories was partly due to a 1.6 percent spike in inventories of non-durable goods, which followed a 0.1 percent uptick in December.

Inventories of petroleum products shot up by 10.7 percent, leading the way higher along with a 3.2 percent jump in apparel inventories.

The Commerce Department said inventories of durable goods also climbed by 0.9 percent in January after surging up by 1.7 percent in December.

Inventories of electrical equipment, furniture, and automotive products all showed significant increases, more than offsetting a steep drop in lumber inventories.

The report also said wholesale sales rose by 0.5 percent in January after falling by 0.9 percent in the previous month.

While sales of durable goods came in unchanged in January after rising by 0.6 percent in December, sales of non-durable goods increased by 0.9 percent after plummeting by 2.3 percent.

The rebound in sales of non-durable goods reflected notable increases in sales of farm products and miscellaneous non-durable goods.

With inventories spiking by more than sales, the inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers crept up to 1.34 in January from 1.33 in December.


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France Private Sector Activity At 2-Month Low

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

France private sector activity dropped to its lowest level in two months in March with both manufacturing and services falling, amid an intensified decline in new order and exports, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Friday.

The flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, fell to a two-month low of 48.7 in March from 50.4 in February. Economists had forecast an improvement to 50.7.

Any reading below 50 indicates a contraction in the sector.

The flash services PMI tumbled to a two-month low of 48.7 in March from 50.2 in February. Economists had expected an expansion of 50.6.

The flash manufacturing PMI dropped to a three-month low of 49.8 in March from 51.5 in February. Economists had expected a mild easing to 51.4.

The manufacturing output index fell to 48.8 in March from 51.0 in February, marking the lowest level in three months.

Export demand shrunk the most in nearly three years and employment growth was the weakest since December 2016.

"There was some respite in that input price inflation continued to soften, particularly in the manufacturing sector," Eliot Kerr, economist at IHS Markit, said.

"However, the private sector looks fragile, with the latest data consistent with a stagnation of economic growth."


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on March 22

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Dear colleagues,

For the EUR/USD pair, we are following the descending structure from March 20. The downward movement to the bottom is expected to continue after the breakdown of 1.1265. For the GBP/USD pair, we follow the development of the downward structure from March 19 and the key level of support is at 1.3206. For the pair USD/CHF pair, the price forms the ascending structure from March 20. The upward movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 0.9974. For the pair USD/JPY, we are expecting to reach the level of 110.09 and the key support level is at 110.58. For the EUR/JPY pair, we are following the development of the downward structure from March 20. The downward movement to the bottom is expected to continue after the breakdown of 125.52 and the key support level is at 125.28. On the GBP/JPY pair, we are following the development of the downward cycle of March 14. The downward movement to the bottom is expected to continue after the breakdown of 144.25.

Forecast for March 22:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the EUR/USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1378, 1.1341, 1.1318, 1.1280, 1.1265, 1.1238 and 1.1203. Here, we follow the formation of the downward structure of March 20. The downward movement to the bottom is expected to continue after the breakdown of after the price passes the noise range of 1.1280 - 1.1265, which in this case the goal is 1.1238. The potential value for the downward movement can be considered at the level of 1.1203, after reaching this level we can expect to go into a correction.

The Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1318 - 1.1341. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement with the target of 1.1378, this level is key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of the downward structure of March 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1318 Take profit: 1.1340

Buy 1.1345 Take profit: 1.1376

Sell: 1.1265 Take profit: 1.1240

Sell: 1.1236 Take profit: 1.1205

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For the GBP/USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3253, 1.3206, 1.3161, 1.3043, 1.3018, 1.2976, 1.2914 and 1.2881. Here, we are following the downward structure of March 19. The downward movement to the bottom is expected to continue after the price passes the noise range of 1.1280 - 1.1265, which in this case the target for consolidation is 1.1238. The breakdown of the level 1.2976 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement with the target of 1.2914. We consider the potential value for the downward structure to be at 1.2881. After reaching of which, we can expect a rollback to the top.

The Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3161 - 1.3206. the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction with the target of 1.3253. This level is key support for the downward structure of March 19.

The main trend is the downward structure of March 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3161 Take profit: 1.3204

Buy: 1.3208 Take profit: 1.3250

Sell: 1.3018 Take profit: 1.2978

Sell: 1.2974 Take profit: 1.2915

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com