Dollar Stays Weak Ahead Of Fed Policy

Trading 19 mar 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar exhibited weakness on Tuesday, extending recent declines, amid concerns about the economy and on speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain a dovish policy stance.

The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates unchanged tomorrow and it is being speculated that the central bank will scale back their projection of rate hikes this year from two to one or perhaps even none, due to growing risks from slowing growth and trade conflicts.

The Federal Bank Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at a news conference tomorrow afternoon will provide directional clues for global markets.

The dollar index dropped to a low of 96.29, and although it recovered from that level, was still down in negative territory at 96.37, trailing previous close by about 0.16%.

Against the British Pound, the greenback was weak after data showed the U.K.'s unemployment to have eased to 3.9%. The pound was up by about 0.14%, at $1.3272.

Despite some disappointing economic data out of Eurozone, the Euro was fairly steady against the dollar, gaining more than 0.12%, with a unit of Euro fetching $1.1354.

The Japanese yen was largely flat against the greenback, trading at 111.40 a dollar.

The dollar was weak against Swiss franc and the loonie, while it was up 0.2% against the Aussie.

In economic news today, a report from the Commerce Department showed new orders for U.S. manufactured goods edged only slightly higher in the month of January, due to a drop in orders for non-durable goods.

The report said factory orders inched up by 0.1% in January, matching the 0.1% uptick in December. Economists had expected orders to rise by 0.3%.

The modest increase in factory orders came as durable goods orders rose by 0.3% in January after jumping by 1.3% in December.

Orders for non-durable goods dipped by 0.2% in January after tumbling by 1.1% in December.

The report also showed factory orders fell by 0.2% when excluding the spike in orders for transportation equipment.

Shipments of manufactured goods also dropped by 0.4% in January after slipping by 0.2% in the previous month.

In economic news from Europe, the Eurozone construction output fell in January after rising in the previous two months, reflecting declines in both building and civil engineering segments, data from the statistical office Eurostat showed on Tuesday.

Preliminary data from the Office for National Statistics showed UK employment level climbed to a record high in the three months to January, while the jobless rate eased to its lowest level since the mid-1970s.

Germany's investor confidence rose sharply in March, reversing a steep fall in the previous month, to its highest level in a year, preliminary data from the ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research showed on Tuesday.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany rose to -3.6 from -13.4 in February, the Mannheim-based think tank said. Economists had forecast the index to rise modestly to -11.

Meanwhile, on the Brexit front, following the speaker of Britain's parliament banning another vote on same Brexit deal, Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay said that Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit divorce deal would probably not be put to a vote in the British parliament this week.


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Gold Futures Settle Higher

Trading 19 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, as the dollar stayed weak on expectations that the Federal Reserve, scheduled to release its monetary policy on Wednesday, would continue to maintain a dovish policy stance.

The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates unchanged tomorrow and it is being speculated that the central bank will scale back their projection of rate hikes this year from two to one or perhaps even none, due to growing risks from slowing growth and trade conflicts.

The Federal Bank Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at a news conference tomorrow afternoon will provide directional clues for global markets.

The dollar index dropped to a low of 96.29 and was last seen hovering around 96.35, down nearly 0.2% from previous close.

Gold futures for April settled up $5.00, or 0.4%, at $1,306.50 an ounce.

On Monday, gold futures for April ended down $1.40, or 0.1%, at $1,301.50 an ounce, around $5.00 off the day's high.

Silver futures for May ended up $0.050, at $15.372 an ounce, while Copper futures for May $0.0140, at $2.9230 per pound.

In economic news today, a report from the Commerce Department showed new orders for U.S. manufactured goods edged only slightly higher in the month of January, due to a drop in orders for non-durable goods.

The report said factory orders inched up by 0.1% in January, matching the 0.1% uptick in December. Economists had expected orders to rise by 0.3%.

The modest increase in factory orders came as durable goods orders rose by 0.3% in January after jumping by 1.3% in December.

Orders for non-durable goods dipped by 0.2% in January after tumbling by 1.1% in December.

The report also showed factory orders fell by 0.2% when excluding the spike in orders for transportation equipment.

Shipments of manufactured goods also dropped by 0.4% in January after slipping by 0.2% in the previous month.


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Treasuries Show Another Modest Move To The Downside

Trading 19 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries saw modest weakness during the trading day on Tuesday, extending the slight pullback seen in the previous session.

Bond prices regained ground after seeing initial weakness but still ended the day in negative territory. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, inched up by 1.2 basis points to 2.614 percent.

With the uptick on the day, the ten-year yield climbed further off the more than two-month closing low set last Friday.

The modest weakness among treasuries came amid continued optimism about U.S.-China trade talks along with recent indications the U.S. economy is holding up relatively well amid a global slowdown.

Trading activity remained somewhat subdued, however, as the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decision kept some traders on the sidelines.

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, although traders are likely to keep a close eye on the accompanying statement for clues about the outlook for rates.

The central bank's economic projections and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's subsequent press conference are also likely to be in focus.

Traders largely shrugged off a report from the Commerce Department showing new orders for U.S. manufactured goods edged only slightly higher in the month of January.

The Commerce Department said factory orders inched up by 0.1 percent in January, matching the 0.1 percent uptick in December. Economists had expected orders to rise by 0.3 percent.

The Fed's statement and projections as well as Powell's accompanying press conference are likely to be in the spotlight on Wednesday amid an otherwise quiet day on the U.S. economic front.


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Portugal Producer Price Inflation Slows For Fourth Month

Trading 19 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Portugal's producer price inflation eased for the fourth consecutive month in February, figures from Statistics Portugal showed on Tuesday.

The producer price index rose 1.0 percent year-on-year in February, slower than a 1.3 percent increase in January. In December, the price growth was 2.7 percent.

Excluding energy, producer price inflation eased to 1.0 percent from 1.4 percent in the previous month, the agency said.

On a monthly basis, producer prices was stable in February after falling in the previous three months.


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Italy Trade Surplus Rises In January

Trading 19 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Italy's trade surplus rose in January with rise in exports, the statistical office Istat reported on Tuesday.

The seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose to EUR 322 million in January from a deficit of EUR 91 million in the corresponding month of the previous year.

Exports rose a seasonally adjusted 2.9 percent year-on-year in January, reversing a 2.4 percent fall in December. Meanwhile, imports climbed 1.7 percent after a 4.6 percent rise.

The trade surplus with EU countries rose EUR 907 million after a deficit of EUR 1.51 billion. Meanwhile, the deficit with non EU countries fell EUR 586 million, after a surplus of EUR 4.27 billion.

On a seasonally adjusted, export rose 2.5 percent monthly in January, while imports fell 4.1 percent a month ago.


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March 19, 2019: EUR/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations

Trading 19 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

The bearish channel's upper limit managed to push price towards 1.1290 then 1.1235 before the EUR/USD pair could come again to meet the channel's upper limit around 1.1420.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520.

However, the market has been demonstrated obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430

That's why, the recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated on March 7th.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 (Fibonacci 38.2%) enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the Highlighted-Zone) where temporary bearish rejection was demonstrated.

Last week, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated a temporary bullish breakout above 1.1315 which was followed by a period of indecision/hesitation that brought the pair again within the depicted supply zone.

This week, another bullish breakout attempt is being executed above 1.1327 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

This probably enhances a further bullish movement towards 1.1370 and 1.1390 where the upper limit of the depicted movement channel is located.

On the other hand, bearish breakout below the price level of 1.1298 (50% Fibonacci) will probably liberate a quick bearish retraction towards 1.1235 (23.6 Fibonacci level)then 1.1180 where the lower limit of the movement channel can be tested again.

Trade recommendations :

Risky traders can wait for the current bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.1390-1.1400 for a valid SELL signal.

T/P levels to be located around 1.1330, 1.1290 and 1.1220. S/L to be located above 1.1450.

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Hong Kong Jobless Rate Remains Stable

Trading 19 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Hong Kong's unemployment rate held steady for a tenth straight month during the December to February period, data from the Census and Statistics Department showed on Tuesday.

The jobless rate remained stable at 2.8 percent during the period of December to February, in line with the economists expectation.

The unemployment rate has been at this level since February to April 2018.

"When compared with a year earlier, the unemployment situation in many major service sectors improved, notably in the retail, and accommodation and food services sectors amid the sustained expansion in inbound tourism", the Secretary for Labor and Welfare Law Chi-kwong said.

"The labor market is expected to stay tight in the near term."


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Eurozone Construction Output Falls In January

Trading 19 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Eurozone construction output fell in January after rising in the previous two months, reflecting declines in both building and civil engineering segments, data from the statistical office Eurostat showed on Tuesday.

Construction output declined a calendar and seasonally adjusted 1.4 percent month-on-month in January, reversing a 1.1 percent rise in December. Output grew 0.3 percent in November.

Civil engineering declined the most by 2.9 percent and building construction fell 1.1 percent.

On a yearly basis, construction production fell a calendar adjusted 0.7 percent year-on-year in January, after a 2.1 percent rise in the previous month.

In the EU28, construction output remained unchanged monthly in January after edging down 0.2 percent in December.

Year-on-year, output rose 0.7 percent in January following a 1.1 percent increase.


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U.S. Factory Orders Show Slight Uptick In January

Trading 19 mar 2019 Commentaire »

With a drop in orders for non-durable goods partly offsetting an increase in orders for durable goods, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing new orders for U.S. manufactured goods edged only slightly higher in the month of January.

The Commerce Department said factory orders inched up by 0.1 percent in January, matching the 0.1 percent uptick in December. Economists had expected orders to rise by 0.3 percent.

The modest increase in factory orders came as durable goods orders rose by 0.3 percent in January after jumping by 1.3 percent in December.

Orders for transportation equipment showed a substantial increase, surging up by 1.2 percent in January after soaring by 3.2 percent in the previous month.

On the other hand, the Commerce Department said orders for non-durable goods dipped by 0.2 percent in January after tumbling by 1.1 percent in December.

The report also showed factory orders fell by 0.2 percent when excluding the spike in orders for transportation equipment.

Shipments of manufactured goods also dropped by 0.4 percent in January after slipping by 0.2 percent in the previous month.

Meanwhile, inventories of manufactured goods rose by 0.5 percent in January after inching up by 0.1 percent in December.

The Commerce Department said the inventories-to-shipments ratio subsequently crept up to 1.36 in January from 1.35 in December.


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Swiss Exports Rise Most In 4 Months

Trading 19 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Switzerland's exports rose the most in four months in February, while imports decreased steeply, data from the Federal Customs Administration showed on Tuesday.

Exports grew a real 1.3 percent month-on-month in February, after a 0.9 percent rise in January. That was the biggest increase since a 6.7 percent surge in October. Exports rose for a second month.

On a monthly basis, imports decreased a real 3 percent, partially reversing a 5.4 percent rise in the previous month. Imports fell for the first time in three months.

The trade surplus rose to CHF 2.0 billion in February from CHF 1.4 billion in January.

The chemical and pharmaceutical products made the biggest contribution to export growth in February. Their turnover set a monthly record of CHF 9.5 billion.

Data from the Federation of Watch Exporters, or FHS, showed that watch exports rose 3.4 percent annually in February.

Exports to the North America and Europe grew in February, while those to Asia decreased.

Imports of jewelry and vehicles decreased.


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